Thunderstorms and Convective Potential

Deep Easterly · 05-07-2008 12:45am

Interesting sat image S, seems to be a family brewing. That line of showers between Cork and Cornwall just stinks of potential. Hopefully some big weather tonight and tomorrow.

Snowbie · 05-07-2008 12:50am

See the latest Sat Pic now Paddy, a warm plume ahead of the centre of circulation with another two cells spawning and heading towards the Waterford coastline. Not a strike detected as yet.

Interesting stuff.

Danno · 05-07-2008 12:52am

StormVue is quiet ere also - though the wind is not!

Deep Easterly · 05-07-2008 1:05am

certainly is interesting, with the developing trough seemingly extending into south wales now. Warm sea will hopefully keep the energy increasing and expanding. Nothing like some night time lightning, hopefully you will get to witness some.

Snowbie · 05-07-2008 1:19am

It's an upper level trough ahead of the LP centre with high wet bulb theta(W) values. Which means a warm moist plume thats elevated with high based CB's where wet bulbs temps asscociated with humid air is destabilising the air and incresing instability.(lapse rates)
Surface CAPE is a couple hundred j/kg but midlevel CAPE is very conducive hence the elevated. SST's would not have too much influence on the formation here but aid in moisture.
In fact SST's are still quite low around our coastline and out to sea.

I don't see us where we are having a lightning show tonight. Maybe along the southern third of the country.

kerry1960 · 05-07-2008 1:38am

Snowbie wrote: »

It's an upper level trough ahead of the LP centre with high wet bulb theta(W) values. Which means a warm moist plume thats elevated with high based CB's where wet bulbs temps asscociated with humid air is destabilising the air and incresing instability.(lapse rates)
Surface CAPE is a couple hundred j/kg but midlevel CAPE is very conducive hence the elevated. SST's would not have too much influence on the formation here but aid in moisture.
In fact SST's are still quite low around our coastline and out to sea.

I don't see us where we are having a lightning show tonight. Maybe along the southern third of the country.

sufferin ducks

and i was only expectin rain

omg

Snowbie · 05-07-2008 1:40am

In the attach below, you can see the air being stabilised and dry air towards the centre of circulation.The precip along the south coast is convective while the rest of the country is fragmented frontal stuff. Nearly a fine line between the both airmass on radar.

The rain over the Bristol channel heading towards S Wales is not yet convective as no plume/instability is there as yet.
On the Satpic, the air is unstale and now reaching over to the SE coast. Cells are popping up right across but yet are electrified.

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb

Snowbie · 05-07-2008 1:57pm

My take on the odd rumble today that the SW and S would be at risk.
Later on as the LP centre travels up the Irish sea, surface based Cape will be a couple of hundred j/kg with a few hundred midlevel Cape.

Right up along the east coast could well have some heavy showers moving in off the sea. Atm it does not look like as potent as what developed over the Celtic sea last night but with winds dying off light, some slow moving showers that will merge looks likely. Thunder risk be low enough but has some potential.

Damomanye · 05-07-2008 4:07pm

yikes, scary thunder here but no lightning. Attached are pics i just took of an anvil( i think) , i never saw a cloud bubble up so fast before my eyes. the very top was shooting up very quickly(thats highlighted in the second photo)..class stuff!

ch750536 · 05-07-2008 4:37pm

Testing my new time lapse on this, off the kerry coast nr Ballybunion now at a guess, moving S. Good build up.

Deep Easterly · 05-07-2008 4:56pm

Nice convection buliding directly over me and to the near east, all being sucked to the south and west . That nice clear blue patch to the north east looks like it's heading this way. How nice...

:mad:

CrowdedHouse · 05-07-2008 4:58pm

Thunder (3 rumbles so far) heard Oranmore/Galway Bay

AntiRip · 05-07-2008 9:11pm

Was caught in a severe thunderstorm in Millstreet Co Cork this evening between 7pm and 8pm. It was the most intense storm I've seen in
years. Continuous lightning and flooding with hailstones also. Fire engines out now clearing floods on the roads. Didn't have a camera on me

It just seemed to get more and more intense each passing minute.

AntiRip · 05-07-2008 9:13pm

Any data or weather pics of this Snowbie?

Snowbie · 05-07-2008 9:40pm

Played the loop playback of detector and there was roughly between 250 to 270 strikes in total in the SW quadrant of the country today. As there was several storms going on down there, it is hard to pinpoint the total strikes for your area.

Also there is still the same ongoing problems with the Shannon radar and this was the best i could find for that time on the map.

Deep Easterly · 05-07-2008 10:41pm

Yet another whopper of a shower just past to the east of me, missing me once again just like they have all day. This place is jinxed, or cursed or something. The shower looked very impressive, and still does as it tumbles its way away from here. I think I must be the only spot in whole of Galway that has not seen a thundery shower today. A pathetic 0.5mm since mid day. This time there had better be a big pay back before the summer is out, and it better be big. I am not accepting these scrapes at all.

Snowbie · 05-07-2008 11:44pm

Ts starting to flare up through the midlands. According to sat pic, the cloud tops are high and have built over the last half hour. Seems to be pushing SSW.

http://www.sat24.com/frame.php?html=view&country=gb

Deep Easterly · 06-07-2008 12:31am

7.9mm reported at Mullingar at 00.00hrs. A lot of rain.

nacho libre · 06-07-2008 1:20am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Yet another whopper of a shower just past to the east of me, missing me once again just like they have all day. This place is jinxed, or cursed or something. The shower looked very impressive, and still does as it tumbles its way away from here. I think I must be the only spot in whole of Galway that has not seen a thundery shower today. A pathetic 0.5mm since mid day. This time there had better be a big pay back before the summer is out, and it better be big. I am not accepting these scrapes at all.

Did you not have a good thunderstorm event about two weeks ago?

still, it's good to see you are coming to the realisation that Tuam is hexxed.:D

Deep Easterly · 06-07-2008 1:32am

nacho libre wrote: »

Did you not have a good thunderstorm event about two weeks ago?

still, it's good to see you are coming to the realisation that Tuam is hexxed.:D

Yes, our close proximity to Mayo does have an overall effect on our general well being..:D

AntiRip · 06-07-2008 10:47am

Snowbie wrote: »

Played the loop playback of detector and there was roughly between 250 to 270 strikes in total in the SW quadrant of the country today. As there was several storms going on down there, it is hard to pinpoint the total strikes for your area.

Also there is still the same ongoing problems with the Shannon radar and this was the best i could find for that time on the map.

Thanks Snowbie

Snowbie · 06-07-2008 6:16pm

Nice day here in Dublin with the centre of LP just off the coast here. All showers is wrapping from NE NW and SW S of here. One area of interest is 2 cells exiting off the SW coast of Scotland and heading for NI. Could intensify over NI and move down Leinster later on.

Now if that LP would only move away east things might get more exciting here in the Dublin area.

Mothman · 06-07-2008 7:50pm

Tasty looking convection to my S and SW. Looks like it'll drop its load shortly though I doubt it will electrify

Snowbie · 09-07-2008 12:03pm

A risk of heavy showers and maybe the odd rumble across a portion of the midlands and midwest of the country (just south of Tuam sorry Deep easterly:D) later in the afternoon with a few hundered CAPE.

Tomorrow looks far interesting with a large area under 700/800 jkg CAPE and the odd place close to 1000j/kg.(midlands) A wind convergence looks very much to aid in the development of convection and/or Ts and funnels.

Post up info later from the 18Z output if risk continues.

Deep Easterly · 09-07-2008 1:46pm

Snowbie wrote: »

A risk of heavy showers and maybe the odd rumble across a portion of the midlands and midwest of the country just south of Tuam

Snowbie · 09-07-2008 5:22pm

A few strikes over Limerick.

dloob · 09-07-2008 6:53pm

Thunder in Galway City now

Storm 10 · 09-07-2008 7:19pm

We have some pretty intense Thunder and Lightning here in Galway at present, its also lashing rain, latest radar shows it pretty well.

Deep Easterly · 09-07-2008 7:36pm

Big old raindrops here. Fat, but not amounting to much. Scrapes again.

Edit: Sky gone a yella.

Snowbie · 09-07-2008 7:41pm

All just to your south Paddy, in fact just for the 2 strikes i got now in the last minute, it has moreorless died out for now. As it interacted with water over Galway bay it could bump up again overland. Convection ahead of this looks good and a huge anvil has formed on Sat24

Thunderstorms and Convective Potential

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