Thunderstorms and Convective Potential

darkman2

Still think your in with a shot of seeing something tonight Snowbie. I wont see it though.:( Im off, good luck!

Snowbie

Lightning over the south coast of Wexford now.

Snowbie

Nothing since and all is quiet.

paulhac

Hi Snowbie, doesnt look like anythings going to happen now another dissapointment

StratoQ

Danno wrote: »

Lovely and sunny here north of you StratoQ. Todays high was 20.4c which is lower than yesterdays. Where are all the 24s and 25s we were promised? We need more substantial heat to kick off a good storm!

Currently 19.3c with dew point of 16.2c (quite high DP). A light aircraft is flying circling around, so no thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next hour or so.

22.7 C at 1.30pm. So could well reach 24/25 C today. In fact could be our warmest day of the year. Still no sign of anything thundery. Will be interesting to see what builds this evening. The NW is prob most at risk.

Danno

There is alot of high level cloud about, I think this will hamper any storms developing.

Snowbie

Unfortunately sun and Cape, humidity and heat values are useless unless the cap on convection is broken and the midlevel dry air clears. Some forcing of convection could occur around mountainous regions but Ts development is minimal today.

Untill then it is firmly in place and according to the satellite some good sunshine over the southern half of the country with no convection or very little.
Nowcasting but i say by the evening some heavy showers could develop from congestus out West after max heating occurs through the afternoon.

Keep an eye on the satellite to see if clouds start to tower, this be the best way to see if a heavy shower be approaching your area.

Danno

Two distinct lines forming along the south east coast through to Kerry...

Seems like a big shower going to form over North Kerry shortly.

Snowbie

Yeah Danno, see the 2nd band is slightly intensifying. See what happens when it moves up over a warm land. Nothing towering in it yet though.

One to watch.

darkman2

According to the UKMO and ECM it should remain very warm through next week with the chance of some thundery rain at times. The Atlantic fronts dont really make inroads.

Hal1

Some TS's pushing into the WNW, I was looking at the Sferics chart here, lots of strikes.

hellboy99

Starting to get windy here.

DOCARCH

Thunderstorms now being reported in the Cardiff/Bristol area from a band of rain and showers that's moving NNW and intensifying. Hopefully these will slip across the Irish Sea during the morning (to South Dublin!).

Supercell

Is it just me or does it look like there is rotation in that band of rain moving north? , looks like a wet afternoon here in the east.

Deep Easterly

Monday looks like it might have an increasing chance again, with more sub tropical air being pumped up over Ireland ahead of an Atlantic trough:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/brack3.gif

GFS in particular are quite adamant about this, with some sort of shortwave crossing the country, particularly for central and eastern areas sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday morning, for the last few days.

Just hope it is not another deflated penis of a job like the current time, which, quite frankly, is a load of arse.

Danno

Geez Paddy, you're in bad mood!

Mr Benevolent

Perhaps the weather needs some Viagra?

On a serious note, 'tis a disappointing summer for thunderstorms and even CBs. Oh well, all we can do is hope.

darkman2

Monday night looks interesting


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn664.png

Deep Easterly

Monday and the whole week going by the latest ECMWF:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Recm1201.gif

This forecast chart for thursday looks particularly interesting, though painfully far out and subject to much change. Seems to be a fairly slack windflow for the week ahead, alternating between SE and SW in direction, which could bring the potential for heavy showers or thunderstorms each day up to thursday at least. My only concern at this stage is for longwave disruptions to kill off convection, but as always this could change in later runs.

darkman2

Weather warnings being issued in the UK presumably for tomorrow night. Looks like very heavy thunderstorms or rain will effect the East coast of Ireland aswell going on the GFS.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Hal1

Where is our resident meteorologist with the netweather charts? only available to subscribers .

Deep Easterly

Hal1 wrote: »

Where is our resident meteorologist with the netweather charts? only available to subscribers .

Ah well, will have to make do with Met Eireann for now :P

Met Eireann wrote:

There will be some hazy sunshine at times but overall a good deal of cloud. The weather will be quite mixed; while all areas will get dry spells there will be bands of showery rain moving up across the country and there is a risk of some locally heavy falls and some thunderstorm activity as well. Daytime temperatures will be typically about 19 or 20 degrees but will rise to 22 or 23 degrees in sunshine. The nights too will be mild with values generally not falling below about 13 degrees. Winds overall will be quite light from a mainly southeasterly direction.

Looks like they are coming around to our way of thinking.

darkman2

Basically tomorrow during day light the Northern half of country is most at risk. However thunderstorms or very heavy rain will push North from the Southeast effect Eastern and Midland areas


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png


Ive a good feeling about tomorrow night:cool:

Hal1

I wonder do met.ie compare frequent this forum much. Anyway it does indeed look better tomorrow for the uk for sure. I hope we get some imports.

darkman2

hmmm 12z GFS plays down potential for storms tomorrow night - same as yesterday. I think its just going to be nowcast. Imports would be nice but that very rarely happens.
Hal that image is from yesterday.

This is tomorrow night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3611.png

Deep Easterly

I'd not worry too much about what GFS is showing rainfall wise to be honest, as they often get it wrong. UKMO rainfall predictions are far more reliable, and indeed, have improved vastly over the last couple of months due to computer upgrades. Rumour has it that Met Eireann will be relaying heavily on this system once the Hirlam model system ceases in 2009.

As always, with thundery potential, even the best model has problems, but for now, UKMO still has potential over the east for tomorrow night:



If some part of the country does not see a storm before friday I will be very disappointed indeed.

darkman2

Possibility a rare frontal thunderstorm event? I dont think that has happened in ten years or more. However the charts do suggest this is a possibility. Lets wait and see. Its going to be a now cast tomorrow evening. Best chance of the year so far.

Hal1

We where only discussing the great TS event of '85 yesterday. Maybe this is the stuff we are looking for...hopefully Thor will be generous.

M.T. Cranium

After looking at the latest model run, I would say a very good chance for heavy thundery rain if not thunderstorms as such, across central Ireland around 1700-2300h with development beginning southwest of Dublin and moving generally to the northwest. A triangular zone from about Galway to Laois to Meath appears to have the best chance for heavy rain or severe thunder.

What is encouraging on the prog maps -- there is a cutoff low rapidly forming near Cornwall between 12z and 00z later Monday and this should energize the frontal boundary drifting northwards. Very warm east wind flow into northern half of Ireland during the day will create the unstable conditions required for lift.

Deep Easterly

As an aside, the fax chart for tomorrow does not look unlike the forecast charts that were published on the 27th of June 1986, with an occlusion moving up from the south. That evening and night, and indeed the next day brought some incredible frontal storms running from the SE to the NW.



Like 85' I don't think anything like that will ever happen again.:rolleyes:

(will try and scan up charts for both the 85 and 86 storms over the next couple of weeks)