June Temperature Forecast/Analysis

Mothman

I'm getting June on the way as I'm fairly busy next week.
The 1961-1990 June mean for the 10 stations is 13.1C.
Here are the June questions. I've thrown in a couple of extra bonus questions, the powers to be to decide how they score

1) June mean temperature 08
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur?
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur?
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head?
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport)


List of stations for bonus 2a and 3a
Ballyhaise
Belmullet
Birr
Casement
Claremorris
Cork Airport
Dublin Airport
Johnstown Castle
Knock Airport
Malin Head
Mullingar
Carlow (Oak Park)
Shannon Airport
Valentia

Mothman

As usual I try to give stats for past few years.
Stats are for 9 stations, the 10 minus Claremorris as I don't have stats for this station. On average Claremorris would bring overall mean temp down by 0.04C

Overall mean
2000 13.7
01 13.3
02 12.9
03 14.2
04 14.5
05 14.7
06 14.8
07 14.2
Warmest, 15.1 1970
Coolest 11.1 1972

Overall Max
2000 27.6
01 23.3
02 21.6
03 23.5
04 25.5
05 24.5
06 25.5
07 25.6
Highest 31.6 1976, Shannon

Overall Min
2000 2.5
01 0.9
02 2.5
03 4.5
04 2.9
05 2.7
06 3.8
07 3.8
Lowest -0.4C 1962 Claremorris
-0.3C Birr 1975

Mean max at Dublin Airport
2000 17.4
01 17.5
02 17.2
03 18.2
04 19.1
05 18.7
06 19.3
07 17.0

Mean Daily Sunshine at Malin Head (hours)
2000 5.17
01 4.53
02 5.52
03 6.50
04 5.07
05 4.13
06 6.48
07 6.72
Max daily sunshine is usually 15.0 to 16.0hrs

Most data from CSO with plenty of post processing

nacho libre

1) June mean temperature 13.6
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 24.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Claremorris
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 5.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.4

ch750536

Cool june coming up

1) June mean temperature 12.8
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.6
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Dub Air
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.3
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Dub Air
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 4.2
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 21.2

darkman2

Im going for a well above average June temperature wise

1) June mean temperature 15.1
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.2
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Johnstown Castle
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 7.2
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) - 19.1C

The reason for this is that indications from all the models suggests a pattern not in keeping with recent years with HP dominant over Eastern Europe and extensions to the Azores. I think upper temperatures are likely to surpass 15C on at least one occasion and I think the pattern so far suggests that this is likely to be overall a warm summer. I expect June to have periods of thundery weather following continental flows. think the highest temperature will definately exceed 26C on more then one occasion.

Deep Easterly

1) June mean temperature 08: 13.9c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 29.1c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Oak Park
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.1c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Ballyhaise
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 0hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.1c

I will be very disappointed if I wasn't correct about every one of these forecasts.

Gonzo

June mean temperature 08: 14.8c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.2c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.8c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 3hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.6c

M.T. Cranium

Well then,

1) June mean temperature 14.2
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.5
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.6
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head?
7.2 hours
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 20.1 C

jd

Overall Mean 14.6
Overall Max 28.6
Oakpark

Lowest Min 4.1
Birr


Sunshine Malin Head 4.5


June 2- 19.5

Mothman

Thanks for replies so far.
No answers accepted for questions 2,3 & 5 after end of May.

You've still got 3 1/2 days for all questions or to make amendments to previous suggestions.
If you're late into this thread into beginning of June, then you can still try Q 1 and 4.

nacho libre

I can't edit my previous post anymore:o

I would like to change some answers, so these are my final predictions

1) June mean temperature 14.3
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.6
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Claremorris
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 5.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.8

gurramok

1) June mean temperature 13.7
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Valentia
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Carlow
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 5.4
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.2

Trogdor

1) June mean temperature 14.0
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.8
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.2
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 7
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.5

Strasser

1) June mean temperature 08: 14.1

2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific): 26.3
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr

3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.5
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Dublin Airport

4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 12.5

5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.7

This is fun, thanks for all the work that is needed to run it.

kindredspirit

1) 15.0°C month's mean temp.

2) 28.0°C highest temp in the month.

2a) Shannon.

3) 3.8°C lowest temp in the month.

3a) Birr.

4) 6.25 hours.

5) 20.8°C highest temp on the mini marathon.

Snowbie

1) June mean temperature 14.2
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.4
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.5
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Oak Park
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 6.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 20.2c
__________________

nilhg

1) June mean temperature 08 14.7
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Clones
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.8
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 3.4 hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.9

Weather BOFH

1) June mean temperature 14.4
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.8
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Casement
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 13 hours
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.5c

Mothman

Quick reminder to get answers in by midnight tonight.

DOCARCH

Sorry! If I'm too late - I'm too late, no worries, just didn't realise date!

1) 15.1c
2) 25.6c
2a) Shannon
3) 2.9c
3a) Mullingar
4) 7 hours
5) 21.8c

Mothman

DOCARCH wrote: »

Sorry! If I'm too late - I'm too late, no worries, just didn't realise date!

There's always one

You could say that you're replying from west coast USA to make the midnight cut off...:p

Danno

1) June mean temperature 08 14.8
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.2
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Carlow
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.9c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 3.4hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.7c

Erm... I'm in Hawaii for the weekend!

Mothman

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And Danno proves , there's not always just one

In the spirit of this comp and you're both regular participants, I'd happily let you in but others may speak.......

DOCARCH

Cheers

Danno

No complaints so far - phew! Hope the thunderstorms keep distract from this thread

Supercell

Theres always two , been mad in work. I'll calculate the league in the next couple of nights.

1) June mean temperature 08 - 14.6
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.4
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.1
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Carlow (Oak Park)
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 13.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport)Too late too guess! null point for me.

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

Theres always two , been mad in work. I'll calculate the league in the next couple of nights.

Tut tut LF. However, if you put me on the top of the league, I'll turn a blind eye to your lateness. Brown envolope style..

Steamboat. :pac:

Mothman, do you have any idea on final Mullingar figure for May? just so we can do up final charts and climate stats and stuff.?

Mothman

Supercell wrote: »

Theres always two .

What can one do? this is the power to be.


Lets run him out of town

Mothman

Dublin AP max today 18.6C.
If confirmed then Gonzo is bang on the money and others very close.

Snowbie

Mothman wrote: »

Dublin AP max today 18.6C.
If confirmed then Gonzo is bang on the money and others very close.

Thats premature MM, my temp is back on the rise again, southerly winds a blowin in, me redirects it to AP.:p

Mothman

Snowbie wrote: »

Thats premature MM, my temp is back on the rise again, southerly winds a blowin in, me redirects it to AP.:p

It's why I put in "if confirmed" cause it was rising with me as well, but I can't see the it getting above 18.6C

Snowbie

I think it's safe at 18.6C.
Dropping off here, well done Gonzo.

Mothman

Snowbie wrote: »

I think it's safe at 18.6C.
Dropping off here, well done Gonzo.

Yes confirmed.

Also 4.4C at Millingar yesterday morning. Worth keeping an eye on to see if lower is recorded.

Deep Easterly

A quick look at May, Boards.ie style:

Firstly, Final overall mean:



12.9c the final figure, which is 2.5c above normal. Despite the record breaking heat in May, it still failed to surpass the high deviational warmth of 2.78c which occured in April 07. However, it will still remain a month not to be forgotten for a long time with new standards set. (I still have a glowing tan!!) Well done Snowbie and Nilhg. Both are closest to the final total (both 12.2c)

Rainfall totals for the month of sunny May:



Drier than normal at all stations except Valentia. Overall rainfall totaled out at 40.6mm, which is just 59.6% of normal. Will we pay the price down the line...? Nature has a funny way of balancing itself out over time..:eek:


A simplistic climatological overview of the year of 2008 so far up to May 31st, using the 10 Met Eireann stations we use for the competition/analysis:

Here is how the anomaly trend is looking thus far:



The 2008 deviational trend suddenly shot up in May to reach record standards. (included on chart is 2007 trend for same time period just to compare) Whether this upward trend is to continue through June remains to be seen. With such a steep rise during May however, could it be a case of "the quicker the climb, the harder the fall..?"

...only time shall tell

A collective overview of the year so far:



The chart above is the anomaly (D.F.A) of both 2007 and 2008 from 1st Jan to May 31st using our 10 Met Eireann stations. As can be seen, the record breaking anomaly of 2007 has yet to be broken by the the current year, despite the unusual warmth of May just gone. However, with a just 0.38c between them, a warmer than average June could put the postive deviational lead of 2007 under threat.

A nail biting month ahead!!!!


:cool:

Snowbie

As always, thanks all those involved for their time and effort in these analysis threads.:)

Mothman

Snowbie wrote: »

As always, thanks all those involved for their time and effort in these analysis threads.:)

And now to get the June charts going.

Mothman

Some low temperatures this morning.
Mullingar 1.5C
I don't have figure for Ballyhaise, but 1.5C is lower than all guesses here.

Mothman

Overall mean to 4th June 13.4C

nacho libre

What's the mean temperature so far this month?

Mothman

nacho libre wrote: »

What's the mean temperature so far this month?

Telepathy at it's finest (and scariest!)

Mothman

A big drop in mean to 12.8C on 5th.

Not enough data yet today to calculate to 6th.

Mothman

Putting these charts on new page

Deep Easterly

Continuing the series on the year of 1986. As you may have read so far, the weather of 1986 over Ireland was marked by below average temperatures in general. So how did June of that year turn out? Well in general, June 86 ended up close to average, which broke the cooling trend of previous months of that year. Here is how the Overall Irish Mean* daily trend worked out:


*Using 5 synoptic stations (Belmullet; Shannon; Malin Head; Dublin and Clones)

As can be seen, the first half of June 86 was quite cool, and indeed, despite finishing off close to average, the O.I.M on no day surrpassed the 61-90 average for this month (when accumulated).

On the other hand, pressure values for the month tended to be slightly above normal in general (between 1mb and 3mb above):



although, as the chart suggests, there was never any very high, or very low pressure values on any day of this month.

Weatherwise, June 86 was quite a wet month, but not exceptionally so. Indeed, parts of the southwest and northeast were drier than normal. Much of the rain that fell came in a series of thundery spells for which June 1986 is noted for. The second half of the month was particularly thundery over many parts of Ireland. With Rosslare and Galway recording 6 days of thunder this month. Dublin, Claremorris and Birr recording 5 days and Shannon, Kilkenny and Belmullet totalling up at 4 days, with only Valentia, Cork and Malin Head escaping with between 0 and 2 days of thunder this month.

Here is some extracts from the Meteorological Service of Ireland's overview of this volitile month:

"Although there were some good sunny days in June, the month was notable for the thunderstorms that effected most areas at one time or another. During the first half the weather was generally cool and unsettled with mostly westerly winds. Around the middle of the month high pressure developed to the east and weather systems affecting us tending to come from the continent.

"This brought a rise in temperatures but also quite an amount of thunderstorm activity. These thunderstorms caused widespread damage and destruction, particularlly on Friday the 27th and Saturday the 28th. In Dublin, about a dozen houses were struck by lightning and one house gutted by the resulting fire.

"Power supplies, transport and communications were disrupted and computers and other electrical equipment knocked out".


What was notable this month also was the how much of the rain fell in showers rather than in frontal bands. The east tended to be wetter in the first half of the month (Casement 29.2mm on the 10th) while parts of the west waited til the last days of June for the highest daily totals (35.2mm on the 30th).

Malin Head, Belfast, Cork and Valentia all remained relatively dry throughout this month.

Highest temperature of June 1986 was recorded at Clones on the 28th (25.5c), while the coolest temperature of the month (1.1c) was felt in Birr on the 11th.



A quick look at temperature anomalies for Western Europe for June 86:



Cool to average in the west, slightly warmer further east. Notable is the coolness of the nearby Atlantic.

Lets hope that June 2008 will turn out even half as exciting as this incredible month...


:cool:

Snowbie

Truly a memorable month, thanks for the info.

Mothman

Updated graphs above.
Mean to 8th 13.0C
Will rise quite a bit next couple of days

Mothman

Mean to 11th 13.5C

nacho libre

i'm surprised it's that high. Supercell, if it stays at this figure please feel free to use my original prediction of 13.6 when you are totting up the scores at the end of the month:D

Mothman

Mean to 13th 13.2/13.3C
Claremorris data missing.

Deep Easterly

Quick recap of temperature extremes for June up to now:

Max: 23.3c - Casement (9th) Nemoniod.
Min: 1.5c - Mullingar (5th) Snowbie; Danno.

Giddy up there Oak Park, you're lettin' me down.:D

Mothman

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Quick recap of temperature extremes for June up to now:

Max: 23.3c - Casement (9th) Nemoniod.

Actually 23.9C - Claremorris on the 1st

Snowbie

Mothman wrote: »

Actually 23.9C - Claremorris on the 1st

Looks like we won't come close to these values this week.
However some cool night's can be expected still.

Mothman, what where the max values recorded in the eastern half of the country synoptic stations last Monday 9th?