June Temperature Forecast/Analysis

Mothman

I'm getting June on the way as I'm fairly busy next week.
The 1961-1990 June mean for the 10 stations is 13.1C.
Here are the June questions. I've thrown in a couple of extra bonus questions, the powers to be to decide how they score

1) June mean temperature 08
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur?
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific)
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur?
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head?
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport)


List of stations for bonus 2a and 3a
Ballyhaise
Belmullet
Birr
Casement
Claremorris
Cork Airport
Dublin Airport
Johnstown Castle
Knock Airport
Malin Head
Mullingar
Carlow (Oak Park)
Shannon Airport
Valentia

Mothman

As usual I try to give stats for past few years.
Stats are for 9 stations, the 10 minus Claremorris as I don't have stats for this station. On average Claremorris would bring overall mean temp down by 0.04C

Overall mean
2000 13.7
01 13.3
02 12.9
03 14.2
04 14.5
05 14.7
06 14.8
07 14.2
Warmest, 15.1 1970
Coolest 11.1 1972

Overall Max
2000 27.6
01 23.3
02 21.6
03 23.5
04 25.5
05 24.5
06 25.5
07 25.6
Highest 31.6 1976, Shannon

Overall Min
2000 2.5
01 0.9
02 2.5
03 4.5
04 2.9
05 2.7
06 3.8
07 3.8
Lowest -0.4C 1962 Claremorris
-0.3C Birr 1975

Mean max at Dublin Airport
2000 17.4
01 17.5
02 17.2
03 18.2
04 19.1
05 18.7
06 19.3
07 17.0

Mean Daily Sunshine at Malin Head (hours)
2000 5.17
01 4.53
02 5.52
03 6.50
04 5.07
05 4.13
06 6.48
07 6.72
Max daily sunshine is usually 15.0 to 16.0hrs

Most data from CSO with plenty of post processing

nacho libre

1) June mean temperature 13.6
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 24.7
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Claremorris
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 5.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.4

ch750536

Cool june coming up

1) June mean temperature 12.8
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 22.6
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Dub Air
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.3
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Dub Air
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 4.2
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 21.2

darkman2

Im going for a well above average June temperature wise

1) June mean temperature 15.1
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 27.2
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Johnstown Castle
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 7.2
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) - 19.1C

The reason for this is that indications from all the models suggests a pattern not in keeping with recent years with HP dominant over Eastern Europe and extensions to the Azores. I think upper temperatures are likely to surpass 15C on at least one occasion and I think the pattern so far suggests that this is likely to be overall a warm summer. I expect June to have periods of thundery weather following continental flows. think the highest temperature will definately exceed 26C on more then one occasion.

Deep Easterly

1) June mean temperature 08: 13.9c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 29.1c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Oak Park
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.1c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Ballyhaise
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 0hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.1c

I will be very disappointed if I wasn't correct about every one of these forecasts.

Gonzo

June mean temperature 08: 14.8c
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.2c
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.8c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 3hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.6c

M.T. Cranium

Well then,

1) June mean temperature 14.2
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.5
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.6
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head?
7.2 hours
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 20.1 C

jd

Overall Mean 14.6
Overall Max 28.6
Oakpark

Lowest Min 4.1
Birr


Sunshine Malin Head 4.5


June 2- 19.5

Mothman

Thanks for replies so far.
No answers accepted for questions 2,3 & 5 after end of May.

You've still got 3 1/2 days for all questions or to make amendments to previous suggestions.
If you're late into this thread into beginning of June, then you can still try Q 1 and 4.

nacho libre

I can't edit my previous post anymore:o

I would like to change some answers, so these are my final predictions

1) June mean temperature 14.3
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.6
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Shannon
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Claremorris
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 5.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.8

gurramok

1) June mean temperature 13.7
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Valentia
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.7
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Carlow
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 5.4
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.2

Trogdor

1) June mean temperature 14.0
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.8
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.2
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 7
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.5

Strasser

1) June mean temperature 08: 14.1

2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific): 26.3
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Birr

3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.5
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Dublin Airport

4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 12.5

5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 18.7

This is fun, thanks for all the work that is needed to run it.

kindredspirit

1) 15.0°C month's mean temp.

2) 28.0°C highest temp in the month.

2a) Shannon.

3) 3.8°C lowest temp in the month.

3a) Birr.

4) 6.25 hours.

5) 20.8°C highest temp on the mini marathon.

Snowbie

1) June mean temperature 14.2
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.4
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.5
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Oak Park
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 6.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 20.2c
__________________

nilhg

1) June mean temperature 08 14.7
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.9
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Clones
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.8
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 3.4 hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.9

Weather BOFH

1) June mean temperature 14.4
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.8
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Casement
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 3.9
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Birr
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 13 hours
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.5c

Mothman

Quick reminder to get answers in by midnight tonight.

DOCARCH

Sorry! If I'm too late - I'm too late, no worries, just didn't realise date!

1) 15.1c
2) 25.6c
2a) Shannon
3) 2.9c
3a) Mullingar
4) 7 hours
5) 21.8c

Mothman

DOCARCH wrote: »

Sorry! If I'm too late - I'm too late, no worries, just didn't realise date!

There's always one

You could say that you're replying from west coast USA to make the midnight cut off...:p

Danno

1) June mean temperature 08 14.8
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 26.2
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Carlow
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 2.9c
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Mullingar
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 3.4hrs
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport) 19.7c

Erm... I'm in Hawaii for the weekend!

Mothman

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And Danno proves , there's not always just one

In the spirit of this comp and you're both regular participants, I'd happily let you in but others may speak.......

DOCARCH

Cheers

Danno

No complaints so far - phew! Hope the thunderstorms keep distract from this thread

Supercell

Theres always two , been mad in work. I'll calculate the league in the next couple of nights.

1) June mean temperature 08 - 14.6
2) Highest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 25.4
2a) Bonus - At what station will highest temperature occur? Mullingar
3) Lowest Temp at any of the synoptic stations (not station specific) 4.1
3a) Bonus - At what station will lowest temperature occur? Carlow (Oak Park)
4) On Summer Solstice Day (21st) How much sunshine will be at Malin Head? 13.1
5) On 2nd June, how hot will it be for Flora Woman's Mini Marathon? (Max at Dublin Airport)Too late too guess! null point for me.

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

Theres always two , been mad in work. I'll calculate the league in the next couple of nights.

Tut tut LF. However, if you put me on the top of the league, I'll turn a blind eye to your lateness. Brown envolope style..

Steamboat. :pac:

Mothman, do you have any idea on final Mullingar figure for May? just so we can do up final charts and climate stats and stuff.?

Mothman

Supercell wrote: »

Theres always two .

What can one do? this is the power to be.


Lets run him out of town

Mothman

Dublin AP max today 18.6C.
If confirmed then Gonzo is bang on the money and others very close.

Snowbie

Mothman wrote: »

Dublin AP max today 18.6C.
If confirmed then Gonzo is bang on the money and others very close.

Thats premature MM, my temp is back on the rise again, southerly winds a blowin in, me redirects it to AP.:p

Mothman

Snowbie wrote: »

Thats premature MM, my temp is back on the rise again, southerly winds a blowin in, me redirects it to AP.:p

It's why I put in "if confirmed" cause it was rising with me as well, but I can't see the it getting above 18.6C