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June Temperature Forecast/Analysis
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A quick look at May, Boards.ie style:
Firstly, Final overall mean:
12.9c the final figure, which is 2.5c above normal. Despite the record breaking heat in May, it still failed to surpass the high deviational warmth of 2.78c which occured in April 07. However, it will still remain a month not to be forgotten for a long time with new standards set.
(I still have a glowing tan!!) Well done Snowbie and Nilhg. Both are closest to the final total (both 12.2c)
Rainfall totals for the month of sunny May:
Drier than normal at all stations except Valentia. Overall rainfall totaled out at 40.6mm, which is just 59.6% of normal. Will we pay the price down the line...? Nature has a funny way of balancing itself out over time..:eek:
A simplistic climatological overview of the year of 2008 so far up to May 31st, using the 10 Met Eireann stations we use for the competition/analysis:
Here is how the anomaly trend is looking thus far:
The 2008 deviational trend suddenly shot up in May to reach record standards. (included on chart is 2007 trend for same time period just to compare) Whether this upward trend is to continue through June remains to be seen. With such a steep rise during May however, could it be a case of "the quicker the climb, the harder the fall..?"
...only time shall tell
A collective overview of the year so far:
The chart above is the anomaly (D.F.A) of both 2007 and 2008 from 1st Jan to May 31st using our 10 Met Eireann stations. As can be seen, the record breaking anomaly of 2007 has yet to be broken by the the current year, despite the unusual warmth of May just gone. However, with a just 0.38c between them, a warmer than average June could put the postive deviational lead of 2007 under threat.
A nail biting month ahead!!!!
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Telepathy at it's finestnacho libre wrote: »What's the mean temperature so far this month? (and scariest!) 0 -
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Continuing the series on the year of 1986. As you may have read so far, the weather of 1986 over Ireland was marked by below average temperatures in general. So how did June of that year turn out? Well in general, June 86 ended up close to average, which broke the cooling trend of previous months of that year. Here is how the Overall Irish Mean* daily trend worked out:
*Using 5 synoptic stations (Belmullet; Shannon; Malin Head; Dublin and Clones)
As can be seen, the first half of June 86 was quite cool, and indeed, despite finishing off close to average, the O.I.M on no day surrpassed the 61-90 average for this month (when accumulated).
On the other hand, pressure values for the month tended to be slightly above normal in general (between 1mb and 3mb above):
although, as the chart suggests, there was never any very high, or very low pressure values on any day of this month.
Weatherwise, June 86 was quite a wet month, but not exceptionally so. Indeed, parts of the southwest and northeast were drier than normal. Much of the rain that fell came in a series of thundery spells for which June 1986 is noted for. The second half of the month was particularly thundery over many parts of Ireland. With Rosslare and Galway recording 6 days of thunder this month. Dublin, Claremorris and Birr recording 5 days and Shannon, Kilkenny and Belmullet totalling up at 4 days, with only Valentia, Cork and Malin Head escaping with between 0 and 2 days of thunder this month.
Here is some extracts from the Meteorological Service of Ireland's overview of this volitile month:
"Although there were some good sunny days in June, the month was notable for the thunderstorms that effected most areas at one time or another. During the first half the weather was generally cool and unsettled with mostly westerly winds. Around the middle of the month high pressure developed to the east and weather systems affecting us tending to come from the continent.
"This brought a rise in temperatures but also quite an amount of thunderstorm activity. These thunderstorms caused widespread damage and destruction, particularlly on Friday the 27th and Saturday the 28th. In Dublin, about a dozen houses were struck by lightning and one house gutted by the resulting fire.
"Power supplies, transport and communications were disrupted and computers and other electrical equipment knocked out".
What was notable this month also was the how much of the rain fell in showers rather than in frontal bands. The east tended to be wetter in the first half of the month (Casement 29.2mm on the 10th) while parts of the west waited til the last days of June for the highest daily totals (35.2mm on the 30th).
Malin Head, Belfast, Cork and Valentia all remained relatively dry throughout this month.
Highest temperature of June 1986 was recorded at Clones on the 28th (25.5c), while the coolest temperature of the month (1.1c) was felt in Birr on the 11th.
A quick look at temperature anomalies for Western Europe for June 86:
Cool to average in the west, slightly warmer further east. Notable is the coolness of the nearby Atlantic.
Lets hope that June 2008 will turn out even half as exciting as this incredible month...
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An overview of June so far up to midnight 15th:
Chart of Overall Mean*
Some stations slightly warmer than average; some slightly below. Works out close to normal overall thus far. Dublin remains the coolest in both absolute and average terms.
Mean rainfall to date:
Rainfall distribution too random to pinpoint any wetter or drier areas as a whole. Overall though, is about 20% drier than normal up to this point of June. Heavy rain forecast for southern areas over the next couple of days should bring mean rainfall figures closer to normal by friday or so.
Mean Pressure Chart**:
At 1019.6 mb**, accumulated pressure values for the month of June are running at 4.6 mb's above normal up to midnight 15th (June 1st-15th mean 1014.9 mb**)
Current trend is falling.
*Mullingar figure an approximation
** Based on 00hrs UTC of 5 Met Eireann synoptic stations: Casement, Malin Head, Birr, Roaches Point and Belmullet.
All information Courtasy of Met Eireann.0 -
Reminder of forecasts:
Highlighted boxes indicate nearest or correct guess so far.
For fun I have included a "Boards.ie forecast" for June, which is based on forecast means by all participants. Will be interesting to see how all participants work as a collective forecasting group.0 -
Nice work Paddy, I feel i'm not going to score well this month unless things pick up
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Just to add a couple more, this is how the breakdown of the mean is looking up to midnight 22nd:
Close to average overall, although Dublin Apt once again has the coolest deviation against to longterm mean. I think the Dubs' deserve a break at this stage; hopefully the forecast westerlies will up the temperature a bit for them during the coming week.
Rainfall totals up to midnight 23rd:
Heavy rain in the south and east in particular has ended what was a remarkably dry June up to now, bringing the overall rainfall total of this month to 69.4mm, which is 108.5% of the 61-90 norm.
Mean pressure trend* up to midnight 23rd:
*Daily combined Mean (UTC 00hrs) of Malin Head, Belmullet, Casement, Birr and Roaches Point.
A significant drop over the last couple of days, which is reflective of the recent wet spell. While the last 5 day mean is showing a rising trend, the overall monthly trend (linear) is still falling, although more slowly (a declining June perhaps??:cool:). Overall SLP mean for June stands at 1016.1 mb up to midnight 23rd, however, which is still 1.1 mb above normal for this point of the month (June 1st to June 23rd mean is 1015.2 mb).
Updated Forecaster's graph, just to put some persective on how this is going:
I have include an "actual" row just to put forcasts into perspective for the current time. White highlighted cells donates closest guess to date; red cells indicate an bang on correct forecast up to now, while the maroon cells on the "actual" row represent a completed forecast.
Ch is holding strong with regards his top temp and mean forecast, although the mean could well enter Gurramok territory before the end of the month. Docarch and Danno look set to grab the coldest location title, whereas Gonzo grabs the highest Dublin temp trophy.
I didn't do too bad on the Malin Head sunshine figures.
, but the delectable Evelyn didn't seem too confidant earlier that my forecast of 29c in Oak Park will be reached anytime before the end of month. :pac:
Long way to go yet though..
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