Possible Snow Storm

Snowbie

WC wrote:

I dont think i have ever seen such an inaccurate forecast from the Irish Met

Black Briar's mate again.

This is just going to be a wind event with maybe the tops of mtns getting snow in any showers.Some hefty showers about so i be looking at cape values rather than dewpoints instead.

Danno

Gonzo wrote: »

saw the TV3 forecast,

Westbrit TV3 - Sure they can't forecast for here.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote: »

Black Briar's mate again.

This is just going to be a wind event with maybe the tops of mtns getting snow in any showers.Some hefty showers about so i be looking at cape values rather than dewpoints instead.

Don't think so, have you seen the latest MetO graphics, shows snow showers into Ireland Wednesday morning, right across to us

Trogdor

Estofex have a level 1 for very strong winds over the Northern half of the country tomorrow night
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2008010906_200801072028_1_stormforecast.xml

rc28

Surprised there's not more interest in this, from estofex:
"A serious wind storm threat could arise during the night hours, dependant on the final position and strength of the depression.
Some wrap-around moisture and atop quite cold mid-levels should support low-end instability release, mainly confined to offshore areas.
Shallow and possibly non-electrified convection could affect N-Ireland and Scotland / NW - UK during the night hours. Again we have to consider the run-to-run consistency but there is an incisive signal of impressive 30-40m/s winds at 850hPa with gusts, exceeding 35-45m/s.
We went with a level-1 as there is no sign of an embedded area with more robust convective activity. Each stronger convective segment could easily produce severe - destructive wind gusts."
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2008010906_200801072028_1_stormforecast.xml
Peope on netweather seem more interested in this-http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=44565&st=17

Edit: Sorry, didn't see trogdor's post.

Trogdor

rc28 wrote: »

Surprised there's not more interest in this, from estofex:
"A serious wind storm threat could arise during the night hours, dependant on the final position and strength of the depression.
Some wrap-around moisture and atop quite cold mid-levels should support low-end instability release, mainly confined to offshore areas.
Shallow and possibly non-electrified convection could affect N-Ireland and Scotland / NW - UK during the night hours. Again we have to consider the run-to-run consistency but there is an incisive signal of impressive 30-40m/s winds at 850hPa with gusts, exceeding 35-45m/s.
We went with a level-1 as there is no sign of an embedded area with more robust convective activity. Each stronger convective segment could easily produce severe - destructive wind gusts."
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2008010906_200801072028_1_stormforecast.xml
Peope on netweather seem more interested in this-http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=44565&st=17

Edit: Sorry, didn't see trogdor's post.

I beat you to it:p. There is quite a bit of interest in this but I'd say most forecasters will be weary of forecasting until the exact track of the low and it's intensity is better firmed up, not much time left though i know:p.

maquiladora

I dunno about the "snow" part of the title of this thread, but there's certainly possible stormy conditions on the way.

M.T. Cranium

My current take on this --

Thundery squalls developing late Tuesday afternoon after a day of strong southerly winds and rain

Winds increase during the evening especially northern half of ROI and Northern Ireland, could gust to 80 mph from west

This colder flow will produce lines of hail and snow squalls in temperatures not far from 2 C, some snow likely to accumulate over higher ground mostly, but may be seen briefly almost anywhere

Mountains in northern half of Ireland could have as much as 4-6 inches of snow by Wednesday morning. Amounts will be more like 1-2 inches at moderate elevations nearby, and trace to 1 inch for lower elevations.

But it should be a wild night, and Thursday is also looking quite windy.

nacho libre

Snowbie wrote: »

Black Briar's mate again.

This is just going to be a wind event with maybe the tops of mtns getting snow in any showers.Some hefty showers about so i be looking at cape values rather than dewpoints instead.

according to the radio forecast, at six this evening, the weather will turn quite wintry in the northwest and north late Tuseday night and into Wednesday morning.

repr

Damn this is lookin really bad for the border regions I know not a lot of people don't like extreme weather but this looks like one mean storm:eek:

Sorry I love this weather bring it on:D

smashey

repr wrote: »

Damn this is lookin really bad for the border regions I know not a lot of people don't like extreme weather but this looks like one mean storm:eek:

Sorry I love this weather bring it on:D

Bring it on.

AngryHippie

Serious question, 80 sheep out, on point of lambing. Do they need to be put in the shed tomorrow ?

Snowbie

nacho libre wrote:

according to the radio forecast, at six this evening, the weather will turn quite wintry in the northwest and north late Tuseday night and into Wednesday morning.

Mainly for mountains at present.Cant foresee snow at lower levels(accumulating) or in this part of the world though.

Define a wintry shower:Hail, cold rain,sleet and snow but strong winds to go with it in this case.

More significant is a wind event rather than snow.
Depending on track (which is not yet set in stone) some places will be more marginal than others for both wind and snow.

6z should gives us more of an idea closer to the time.Again another nowcast.

silverski

AngryHippie wrote: »

Serious question, 80 sheep out, on point of lambing. Do they need to be put in the shed tomorrow ?

YES

AngryHippie

How much snow are we talkin here, North westmeath area. Hilly. drifts are only real problem for them. Wind and rain are no bother to them.

silverski

AngryHippie wrote: »

How much snow are we talkin here, North westmeath area. Hilly. drifts are only real problem for them. Wind and rain are no bother to them.

Snowbie should be able to answer that question for you.

regards
Silverski

darkman2

Most places will have showers from time to time tomorrow night. These will mostly be of sleet and snow to all levels away from Atlantic Coasts particularly after midnight. Heaviest in the North and Northwest where accumulations are likely. Showers in East will be lighter and more scattered. The midlands could see a dusting aswell. I dont expect heavy showers in the East tomorrow night - just light occassional showers of sleet or snow. Probrably not even enough for any accumlations. Different story further West with frequent heavy sleet or snow showers.


Latest met forcast on TV pretty much confirmed this btw.

Tempertaures tomorrow night 0 - 2C generally. Coldest in the East, Midlands and North.

Snowbie

How much snow are we talkin here, North westmeath area. Hilly. drifts are only real problem for them. Wind and rain are no bother to them.

silverski wrote: »

Snowbie should be able to answer that question for you.

regards
Silverski

Jeese,No i cant nor could anyone else i'm afraid,not at present.

Snowbie wrote:

More significant is a wind event rather than snow.
Depending on track (which is not yet set in stone) some places will be more marginal than others for both wind and snow.

If someone said that Meath/Louth where to get between 6-8 inches of snow last Wedensday night,no one would have believed it.
But by Thursday,elements where starting to fall into place and what is called a "nowcast" was released.

Who can say it will or it wont snow,maybe it will but i could not say for sure.Winds could gust above 60mph or below.

A forecast is given for an entire provincial region,not for specific areas.
It's a case of watch this space and keep tuned to weather updates or check back in here,also could upgrade or downgrade.Early tomorrow will paint a better picture.

AngryHippie

its probably not going to be a foot of snow with -3 or 4 though,

darkman2

AngryHippie wrote: »

its probably not going to be a foot of snow with -3 or 4 though,

Depends on where the precip is. Everything favours snow tomorrow night. Only thing we need to know is where the showers are most likely. Realistically this cannot be judged accurately until 6 hours out. There have been a few supprises so far this January so cant rule anything in or out. A foot of snow is unlikely though;)

Snowbie

AngryHippie wrote: »

its probably not going to be a foot of snow with -3 or 4 though,

I dont want to stick my neck out and tell you it wont be a foot of snow either.As it's hilly where you are the latest charts are suggesting it be ideal for snow after midnight,but these will be from showers which are hit and miss(very hard to pinpoint where showers are going to hit,how heavy too and is why we look at the radar) and is unknown if it will settle.Temps are progged to be down near 0c,so the chances of snow settling would increase here.

As i said before this could be upgraded or downgraded,it be more certain within 12hrs than it is now.

I assume it takes awhile to round up 80 sheep?.

repr

darkman2 wrote: »

Depends on where the precip is. Everything favours snow tomorrow night. Only thing we need to know is where the showers are most likely. Realistically this cannot be judged accurately until 6 hours out. There have been a few supprises so far this January so cant rule anything in or out. A foot of snow is unlikely though;)

As weathercheck said as well depend on the placing of the low the further North it gets the more chance of blizzards rather than heavy rain/sleet.

Can def see snow for large portions of Ireland - Ulster is touch and go I would say the low bringing to much mild air in with it but around the border regions and middle of Ireland with the cold air could get a good dumping especially on hills.

AngryHippie

Snowbie wrote: »

I assume it takes awhile to round up 80 sheep?.

Not really, Its a 30 minute job with dog, 20 minute job with quad. But It's not good for them to round them up and walk them the 10 minute walk up to the sheds when they are this close to poppin, Unless the weather is going to be freakishly bad, It might do more harm than good

rc28

meteireann this morning saying 150km/h gusts and snow showers tonight with "snow lying" but they aren't being specific about where most of the wind and snow will be.

DOCARCH

At the moment, from what I can see from models, looks like strongest winds are forecast to be between Galway/Dublin line and Sligo/Belfast line.

Following now on Met E website:

Severe Weather Alert
Becoming extremely windy or even stormy during today, with potentially damaging gusts of 120 to 150 km/hr.
The stormy conditions will continue for much of tonight, with the most severe winds over Ulster, Connacht, and north Leinster.

Heavy rain today will be followed later by showers of hail, sleet and snow. Scattered thunderstorms also, with lying snow in places tonight.

Valid until 0900 Wednesday 9/1/08

Paddy.1

BBC rain graphics have a nice bit of white directly over my area at 3 am tomorrow morning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/uk_rain_08010903.jpg

I think in reality that it will be more widespread than that. I think snow is possible anywhere from a line northwards of Galway/Dublin tonight as cold front move through.

I am more hoping for some lightning though.. Had a couple of flickers yesterday evening, but would be nice to see something a bit more full on.:)

Paddy.1

mike65 wrote: »

Another false alarm frankly

Mike.

You could be right. After all the hype of Sunday nights event, it turned out to be nothing but a limp penis, in my part of the west anyway.

Been stung too many times this winter, so I am going to be a little bit more cynical about todays affair.

Villain

Weather Warning


Met:


After an overnight lull, the weather will become very windy at times again tomorrow or early tomorrow night. While there is some uncertainty regarding the timing and severity of the windy spell, there is potential for mean speeds of 45 to 75 kph (25-40knots) and of gusts as high as 100 to 130 kph (55-70knots).

The most likely time for the strongest winds is during the afternoon and evening (1400 to 2300), but they may occur earlier.

Heavy rain will occur at time, and may be preceded by snow for a while early tomorrow in Ulster.


Valid: 0900 to 2400 hours 8/1/08.

Paddy.1

Paddy.1 wrote: »

You could be right. After all the hype of Sunday nights event, it turned out to be nothing but a limp penis, in my part of the west anyway.

Been stung too many times this winter, so I am going to be a little bit more cynical about todays affair.

This one could be a little different.
This mornings latest from met Éireann (755am) has forecast storm force winds with damaging gusts of 150kmph.
they aren't too worried about the snow at the start of the front and besides that is already pushed up to the north coast.It's falling as cold rain in castlederg at 3c(air and dew),so I'd imagine the "preceding" snow if any is at the moment up on the highest mountains even in Ulster.
They are expecting sleet and snow showers in it's wake though probably from the following cold front and the various trough lines and looking at the source of the wrap around air,I can understand that assessment.

ninebeanrows

The Occlusion has now almost crossed the country.

The rapidly intensifying storm is now lying off the west coast.

Winds not as extreme as in yesterday 12z.

Gusts over Ulster could reach 80/85mph, gusts across the north of the republic could reach 70-80mph.

Snow showers pounding in behind the storm.