Possible Snow Storm

ninebeanrows

Hey Tuesday night is beginning to look vicious,

Winds in the East coudl be sustained 50mph gusting 80mph with 850hpa temps
@ -6c, dewpoints at -1c or 0c....

lucernarian

It's still very borderline for snow, and me with a small advantage for snow in Louth. I can't see blizzards at sea level anyway. Cavan/Monaghan will get the snow if anywhere will I think.

The wind speeds could well be very high, and it's a night to stay in for.

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

It's still very borderline for snow, and me with a small advantage for snow in Louth. I can't see blizzards at sea level anyway. Cavan/Monaghan will get the snow if anywhere will I think.

The wind speeds could well be very high, and it's a night to stay in for.

The wind will be a good factor for bringing that snow to sea level.

Yes i agree will be borderline.

Temps expect to be 1/2 with dews of 0/-1c

Wind Speeds could be very high.

I have the damn flu:rolleyes:

darkman2

Damn WC beat me to it. A very interesting rare setup tomorrow night.

Villain

Looks like high ground will have some very interesting weather!

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Looks like high ground will have some very interesting weather!

Indeed, tomorrow night is a night to be on the Wicklow Mountains if you like whiteout conditions with gusts to 100mph :eek:

Looking at the latest data.

Wind gusts could reach 85mph at least tomorrow night, and a large swathe of
70mph + gusts are likely.

Snow probably restricted to above 200m but certainly not excusively.

With such strong winds and temperatures of 1/2c and dp's of 0/-1c the snowline will be lower still.

Villain

Be interesting to see what way the Met forecast this tonight.

arctictree

UKMO have the low over scotland at midnight tomorrow, GFS have the low over NI at the same time. Maybe GFS is more accurate as its a later run? Conditions should be interesting anyway...

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

Maybe GFS is more accurate as its a later run?

Hard to say if it verifies.I'm tending towards a mix of all three myself

Conditions should be interesting anyway...

You know this already but you are in with a better chance than most on this forum.
Lugnaquilla is certainly very white today too.

Gonzo

I think thre will be snow from this for Wickow Mountains, maybe hilly parts of north midlands and parts of Northern Ireland as well as alot of Scotland and Northwest England. I think most of us at lower levels will see cold rain and bits of sleet and wet snow mixed in with rain on coastlines. The wind will be more of an issue I think.

arctictree

Deleted User wrote: »

Lugnaquilla is certainly very white today too.

Can you see it from your position?

The problem is that on days like today, the sun is very near the summit from my position, so all I see is the outline. Very hard to distinguish colors etc...

Theres a beautifull view of it artictree as you drive along the cemetary road aka emoclew road in Arklow where the Bolands hardware store and the NCT car test centre is.
(Mine passed \o/)

Anyhow,yes you can plainly see about two thirds of it is perfectly white.
The bottom third isn't.

ninebeanrows

GFS paints a seriously worrying picture.

A vicious swathe of winds across the middle-northern portion of the country.

ninebeanrows

If the 12z were to prove correct.

Across North Leinster/ Ulster/ North Midlands.

Windspeeds of mean 50/60mph gusting above 90mph.

Driving snow and Blizzards.

Danno

Woohooo, bring it on!

squonk

LOL! Mind you I got little enough sleep last night with the high winds, wondering if one of my slates was thininkg of going walkies, not sure I could take another night of it, though if there was the white stuff involved, I'm sure it'd take my mind off of it though. Probably not much change in Skerries however.

repr

That is lookin very vicious for parts of Ireland:eek:. Would be some damage done if that came off.

Also chance of blizzard conditions. What a great winter this is turning out to be. Love it:D

Ryanoneill2006

Anybody catch lunchtime forecast on RTE? What are Met Eireann forecasting on this?

Hal1

The weather at 1pm, but the 5pm is on now. And where did that new weather girl spring from

Ryanoneill2006

Thanks for that Hal.. Never seen Ursula before, might tune into the weather more often!!! I've noticed that they are talking about rain, sleet & snow mainly in the Northeast. What do you guys think that the chances are of some sleet/snow in Dublin? We missed out last week and would love to see some snow!!

Gonzo

Sky news gave rain, sleet and snow mainly for the northwest (higher ground) as well, better dryness towards the east, but a risk of tornado's so its gonna be very windy. I think the wind will be a much bigger feature than the temperature or the precipitation. BBC is giving rain for Dublin and wintry weather in the north west.

ninebeanrows

UKM 12z is placing the low further north than the GFS

Supercell

Exact path will be hard to tie dwn but I'd think the more northerly track is likely.
Thats mild, wet and stormy here though, snow very unlikely apart from the far north I think unless the models start putting it back south again (unlikely imho)

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote: »

Exact path will be hard to tie dwn but I'd think the more northerly track is likely.
Thats mild, wet and stormy here though, snow very unlikely apart from the far north I think unless the models start putting it back south again (unlikely imho)

Untrue IMO

The closer the low is to us the more chance of the mild core to be over us.

For myself, the best postion would be over ulster with the mild core there and the cold air here.

There will be more chance of snow outside Ulster than in Ulster tomorrow night

mike65

Another false alarm frankly

Mike.

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote: »

There will be more chance of snow outside Ulster than in Ulster tomorrow night

Yeah, Scotland:p.

An interesting set up but again i think its a nowcast type (which have been interesting of late)

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

Another false alarm frankly

Mike.

such negativity:p

i'm confident there will be snow in the north west tomorrow night:D

Gonzo

saw the TV3 forecast, they are going for semi mild conditions tomorrow, 9C for Dublin and the South, 5/6C for the North West and Northern Ireland with showery outbreaks of rain and quite windy. BBC also giving us 9C for 2moro. Going by the TV the only area with a risk of snow is Scotland.

Supercell

These wild weather systems are always hard to forecast accurately, definitly will be a nowcast situation (just a nowcast of mild or milder here imho!).

I need a nights sleep..please let the wind settle a bit tonight!

ninebeanrows

I dont think i have ever seen such an inaccurate forecast from the Irish Met, were they using 5 day old data?

They had the center of the low over Dublin at midday tomorrow!!

About 12-18 hours early!

Absolutely terrible stuff.

repr

hmm interestin weather report on bbc newsline goin for the severe winds and snow showin for Armagh and Down though still some uncertainty surroundin the snow. Probably just be hill snow with sleet to lower levels I would reckon

Snowbie

WC wrote:

I dont think i have ever seen such an inaccurate forecast from the Irish Met

Black Briar's mate again.

This is just going to be a wind event with maybe the tops of mtns getting snow in any showers.Some hefty showers about so i be looking at cape values rather than dewpoints instead.

Danno

Gonzo wrote: »

saw the TV3 forecast,

Westbrit TV3 - Sure they can't forecast for here.

ninebeanrows

Snowbie wrote: »

Black Briar's mate again.

This is just going to be a wind event with maybe the tops of mtns getting snow in any showers.Some hefty showers about so i be looking at cape values rather than dewpoints instead.

Don't think so, have you seen the latest MetO graphics, shows snow showers into Ireland Wednesday morning, right across to us

Trogdor

Estofex have a level 1 for very strong winds over the Northern half of the country tomorrow night
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2008010906_200801072028_1_stormforecast.xml

rc28

Surprised there's not more interest in this, from estofex:
"A serious wind storm threat could arise during the night hours, dependant on the final position and strength of the depression.
Some wrap-around moisture and atop quite cold mid-levels should support low-end instability release, mainly confined to offshore areas.
Shallow and possibly non-electrified convection could affect N-Ireland and Scotland / NW - UK during the night hours. Again we have to consider the run-to-run consistency but there is an incisive signal of impressive 30-40m/s winds at 850hPa with gusts, exceeding 35-45m/s.
We went with a level-1 as there is no sign of an embedded area with more robust convective activity. Each stronger convective segment could easily produce severe - destructive wind gusts."
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2008010906_200801072028_1_stormforecast.xml
Peope on netweather seem more interested in this-http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=44565&st=17

Edit: Sorry, didn't see trogdor's post.

Trogdor

rc28 wrote: »

Surprised there's not more interest in this, from estofex:
"A serious wind storm threat could arise during the night hours, dependant on the final position and strength of the depression.
Some wrap-around moisture and atop quite cold mid-levels should support low-end instability release, mainly confined to offshore areas.
Shallow and possibly non-electrified convection could affect N-Ireland and Scotland / NW - UK during the night hours. Again we have to consider the run-to-run consistency but there is an incisive signal of impressive 30-40m/s winds at 850hPa with gusts, exceeding 35-45m/s.
We went with a level-1 as there is no sign of an embedded area with more robust convective activity. Each stronger convective segment could easily produce severe - destructive wind gusts."
http://estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2008010906_200801072028_1_stormforecast.xml
Peope on netweather seem more interested in this-http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=44565&st=17

Edit: Sorry, didn't see trogdor's post.

I beat you to it:p. There is quite a bit of interest in this but I'd say most forecasters will be weary of forecasting until the exact track of the low and it's intensity is better firmed up, not much time left though i know:p.

maquiladora

I dunno about the "snow" part of the title of this thread, but there's certainly possible stormy conditions on the way.

M.T. Cranium

My current take on this --

Thundery squalls developing late Tuesday afternoon after a day of strong southerly winds and rain

Winds increase during the evening especially northern half of ROI and Northern Ireland, could gust to 80 mph from west

This colder flow will produce lines of hail and snow squalls in temperatures not far from 2 C, some snow likely to accumulate over higher ground mostly, but may be seen briefly almost anywhere

Mountains in northern half of Ireland could have as much as 4-6 inches of snow by Wednesday morning. Amounts will be more like 1-2 inches at moderate elevations nearby, and trace to 1 inch for lower elevations.

But it should be a wild night, and Thursday is also looking quite windy.

nacho libre

Snowbie wrote: »

Black Briar's mate again.

This is just going to be a wind event with maybe the tops of mtns getting snow in any showers.Some hefty showers about so i be looking at cape values rather than dewpoints instead.

according to the radio forecast, at six this evening, the weather will turn quite wintry in the northwest and north late Tuseday night and into Wednesday morning.

repr

Damn this is lookin really bad for the border regions I know not a lot of people don't like extreme weather but this looks like one mean storm:eek:

Sorry I love this weather bring it on:D

smashey

repr wrote: »

Damn this is lookin really bad for the border regions I know not a lot of people don't like extreme weather but this looks like one mean storm:eek:

Sorry I love this weather bring it on:D

Bring it on.

AngryHippie

Serious question, 80 sheep out, on point of lambing. Do they need to be put in the shed tomorrow ?

Snowbie

nacho libre wrote:

according to the radio forecast, at six this evening, the weather will turn quite wintry in the northwest and north late Tuseday night and into Wednesday morning.

Mainly for mountains at present.Cant foresee snow at lower levels(accumulating) or in this part of the world though.

Define a wintry shower:Hail, cold rain,sleet and snow but strong winds to go with it in this case.

More significant is a wind event rather than snow.
Depending on track (which is not yet set in stone) some places will be more marginal than others for both wind and snow.

6z should gives us more of an idea closer to the time.Again another nowcast.

silverski

AngryHippie wrote: »

Serious question, 80 sheep out, on point of lambing. Do they need to be put in the shed tomorrow ?

YES

AngryHippie

How much snow are we talkin here, North westmeath area. Hilly. drifts are only real problem for them. Wind and rain are no bother to them.

silverski

AngryHippie wrote: »

How much snow are we talkin here, North westmeath area. Hilly. drifts are only real problem for them. Wind and rain are no bother to them.

Snowbie should be able to answer that question for you.

regards
Silverski

darkman2

Most places will have showers from time to time tomorrow night. These will mostly be of sleet and snow to all levels away from Atlantic Coasts particularly after midnight. Heaviest in the North and Northwest where accumulations are likely. Showers in East will be lighter and more scattered. The midlands could see a dusting aswell. I dont expect heavy showers in the East tomorrow night - just light occassional showers of sleet or snow. Probrably not even enough for any accumlations. Different story further West with frequent heavy sleet or snow showers.


Latest met forcast on TV pretty much confirmed this btw.

Tempertaures tomorrow night 0 - 2C generally. Coldest in the East, Midlands and North.

Snowbie

How much snow are we talkin here, North westmeath area. Hilly. drifts are only real problem for them. Wind and rain are no bother to them.

silverski wrote: »

Snowbie should be able to answer that question for you.

regards
Silverski

Jeese,No i cant nor could anyone else i'm afraid,not at present.

Snowbie wrote:

More significant is a wind event rather than snow.
Depending on track (which is not yet set in stone) some places will be more marginal than others for both wind and snow.

If someone said that Meath/Louth where to get between 6-8 inches of snow last Wedensday night,no one would have believed it.
But by Thursday,elements where starting to fall into place and what is called a "nowcast" was released.

Who can say it will or it wont snow,maybe it will but i could not say for sure.Winds could gust above 60mph or below.

A forecast is given for an entire provincial region,not for specific areas.
It's a case of watch this space and keep tuned to weather updates or check back in here,also could upgrade or downgrade.Early tomorrow will paint a better picture.

AngryHippie

its probably not going to be a foot of snow with -3 or 4 though,

darkman2

AngryHippie wrote: »

its probably not going to be a foot of snow with -3 or 4 though,

Depends on where the precip is. Everything favours snow tomorrow night. Only thing we need to know is where the showers are most likely. Realistically this cannot be judged accurately until 6 hours out. There have been a few supprises so far this January so cant rule anything in or out. A foot of snow is unlikely though;)