She's coming..

arctictree

arctictree wrote: »

Models are starting to agree now on a stiff northerly on Sunday turning north easterly on Monday. Still a bit of time to go yet but if the next few runs keep on the same track then it could turn interesting.
A

Well GFS has turned round completely in the 12Z to favour a mild solution..
I haven't looked at the 06z yet (obviously) but I repeat what has always been my mantra-Beyond 5 days is FI-Fantasy island so I'd suggest not relying on that or getting your hopes up.
It's still only november.

arctictree

Tristrame wrote: »

Well GFS has turned round completely in the 12Z to favour a mild solution..
I haven't looked at the 06z yet (obviously) but I repeat what has always been my mantra-Beyond 5 days is FI-Fantasy island so I'd suggest not relying on that or getting your hopes up.
It's still only november.

Can you provide a link? I can only see the 00Z, which looks promising at the moment...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

A

I meant 00z obviously above and not 12z
Theres no cold 850's in them artictree well into next week

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rhavn1742.gif

Thats a week away and it is definitely about as reliable as a paper boat on the stranraer route in terms of being FI.

Go further into FI and you don't even have your paper boat in terms of reliability.

What I'm saying is that the nearer term which looked colder on the 18z last night from next sunday on looks mild now.
It's certainly not snow territory-even for the top of Kippure with 0c and at best -5c 850's.

People seem to forget that we seem to struggle even in january to get snow with -8c or -10c 850 temps-so thinking we will get it with even higher 850's now is delusionary to be honest.

Of course there may be another turnround in the 06Z but I wouldnt get excited unless you are see'ing sub -10c 850's and at less than 5 days out in the models.

rc28

These crushing let downs always happen, i really don't know why people bother looking at the output for more than 4 days ahead.

Supercell

Only crushing if you believe them at so far out
Anything greater than 48 hours out for snow I take with a barrel full of salt mostly.

Snowbie

Weather on RTE after the 6 news had the winds a blowin from the north on Sunday.
12z had dismissed that earlier,see what the 18z brings?

arctictree

The 18z is out. Looks like we are gonna lose the northerlies on Sunday but the weather looks interesting nonetheless...

A

Snowbie

Well met.ie are still going for the northerly on monday in yesterdays forecasts and also on the site today.Hmmm do they know something we dont?

They use the ECMWF with their forecasts and have to agree the GFS is a bit tipsy atm.
The GFS is usually good at picking up northerlies in the reliable time frame,so i wonder if GFS will come back on track or met.ie ECM will downgrade.
A bit of a rollercoaster.

Strasser

rc28 wrote: »

These crushing let downs always happen, i really don't know why people bother looking at the output for more than 4 days ahead.

What I do'nt understand is why FI is so often cold. Surely the people who run these models should realise by now that it usually doesn't turn out cold so why don't they change their systems or techniques to give a mild solution and they might actually be right more often! (I know this is a gross over simplfication but i can't help thinking it).

arctictree

Strasser wrote: »

What I do'nt understand is why FI is so often cold. Surely the people who run these models should realise by now that it usually doesn't turn out cold so why don't they change their systems or techniques to give a mild solution and they might actually be right more often! (I know this is a gross over simplfication but i can't help thinking it).

Actually, FI is often mild, its just that we don't notice it so much! For example the 12z GFS one now has mild weather for the end of next week. Next run is bound to turn up something different around that time. The nature of these models is that the further you go out, the more unreliable they become. FI is interesting though in that it does show some scenarios that are possible to occur.

arctictree

12z GFS charts for Sunday are looking very interesting. Northerlies backing NE. Probably max of 7 or 8 degrees. Snow possible on the mountaintops during the night??

A

The trends building in sucessive charts auger well if they keep trending like they are doing.

Have a look at Europe,it's cooling down like nobodies business.
Theres severe cold into Russia and extending westwards as far as Poland and Germany.
Krakow according to someone I spoke to today already has a half meter of snow and ice days.
There appears to be an ever increasing trend towards a mid atlantic block extending into Greenland and feeding a potential scandi high for Early december.
That would advect Russian cold here within 5 to 6 days and pin down a potential white Xmas which is worth a flutter by the way.

Theres a lot of speculation in that,and things might pan out very differently but it's a very interesting synoptic evolution and highly possible.

Supercell

This autumn is evolving interestingly, however as usual these days temperatures are still trending well above average - http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

Any long range forecasts should be taken with a barrel full of salt.
Personally T>72=FI

I'll be the first one to ramp but dont see it yet (23rd'ish looks like it has potential but only fools would start forecasting that yet..)

God let this winter be the one that delivers the sneactha all the same

Paddy.1

Tristrame wrote: »

The trends building in sucessive charts auger well if they keep trending like they are doing.

Have a look at Europe,it's cooling down like nobodies business.
Theres severe cold into Russia and extending westwards as far as Poland and Germany.
Krakow according to someone I spoke to today already has a half meter of snow and ice days.
There appears to be an ever increasing trend towards a mid atlantic block extending into Greenland and feeding a potential scandi high for Early december.
That would advect Russian cold here within 5 to 6 days and pin down a potential white Xmas which is worth a flutter by the way.

Theres a lot of speculation in that,and things might pan out very differently but it's a very interesting synoptic evolution and highly possible.

Hi, I only just found this thread. Hope no one minds me giving a comment now and again.


Agree. But a mid atlantic blocking does not nescessarily have to occur for a cool to cold winter.
The winter of 1981/1982, for example, rarely contained a 'full' atlantic block, particularly at the initial stages. But agree with you that the synoptics are looking good recently.
So fingers crossed...:)

arctictree

Looks like LP coming right down the Irish Sea tomorrow. Very interesting weather in store.

A

Paddy.1

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Agree. But a mid atlantic blocking does not nescessarily have to occur for a cool to cold winter.
The winter of 1981/1982, for example, rarely contained a 'full' atlantic block, particularly at the initial stages. But agree with you that the synoptics are looking good recently.
So fingers crossed...:)

True but you know what happened that year.
One spectacular event in early january due to a scandi high and a bitter siberian easterly meeting an atlantic weather system that stalled over the East of the country for 4 days...(Drifts near croghan mt in south Wicklow up to the tree tops in the woods,thats 40ft or more and drifts here at sea level up to 15ft-my road for instance was blocked for a whole week! something never seen since!).

After that the atlantic took over and there was no more snow in '82.

You need an atlantic block and an omega bock where the high extends up through Greenland and across the artic and down into scandi if you want a sustained cold spell.
That happened in '47 and '63 and variably occurred in the early to mid 80's briefly at times and again in a weakish form in february '91.
You also need the jet to be south of Ireland and thats where its currently trending.
The beauty of the jet being south of Ireland if you have your omega block is that you get the northern arm of anything going west to East and this is the part that is coldest and it's also the part that hits up against any easterly.

ninebeanrows

Interesting charts in the near future, not that it will likely be especially cold however.

Today for example we have a very active cold front moving southeastwards, and there is potential for imbedded TS's and even tornadic activity, lots of heavy rain for sure anyway.

Then over the next few days it is going to be cool with biting easterly winds, towards midweek there is potential for some rather strong winds on Eastern coasts as a LP pushes into the Irish sea.

The interest grows towards late next week as models suggest some cold air feeding into the flow as winds turn Northeasterly. Although this is still a long way out and the models have being performing particularly poorly this year.

Paddy.1

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting charts in the near future, not that it will likely be especially cold however.

Today for example we have a very active cold front moving southeastwards, and there is potential for imbedded TS's and even tornadic activity, lots of heavy rain for sure anyway.

Then over the next few days it is going to be cool with biting easterly winds, towards midweek there is potential for some rather strong winds on Eastern coasts as a LP pushes into the Irish sea.

The interest grows towards late next week as models suggest some cold air feeding into the flow as winds turn Northeasterly. Although this is still a long way out and the models have being performing particularly poorly this year.

Interesting that is for sure. Cold front just passing here and the sky in very tortured looking. It is scary to see clouds moving in different directions!
I think gales are a possible feature for the northern half of the country as a whole as opposed to just the east coast. Though it is bound to feel particularly bitter there, being exposed.
Overall, looking good for the coming week...:)

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Recm2401.gif

That would be juicy if it was in 3 weeks or a months time!

Trogdor

Tristrame wrote: »

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Recm2401.gif

That would be juicy if it was in 3 weeks or a months time!

Has changed now, still something of an Easterly though, was great earlier.
I just had a look through the 2 week forecast based on the GFS 12z on Metcheck for Dublin and the temp only hits 9C once(this tuesday) and apart from that it stays below 9C. Ok, most of it is FI but I think it's still very interesting given that the November mean max for Dublin airport is 9.8C!
EDIT: What's the chances of snow on the Wicklow mountains this week? Maybe a 2nd snow hunt?
I'm not looking foward to Monday. I'm going gorge walking in the devil's glen as a transition year outdoor pursuits thing. Walking/swimming up a river and ab sailing down a waterfall...with heavy showers with hail, strong Easterlies and a whindchill of about 2C:( Me thinks It'll be a tad chilly.

Supercell

I'm starting to be cautiously interested.
Given the time of year its likely to be a high ground only thing, that said, some of the charts are rather tasty and the sun at this time of year has very little strength so source air is all.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some sleety showers in Devils Glen in the coming week, but would be very surprised if they came close to settling. Bring some warm gloves and a thermos filled with hot soup trogdor
That said, the likes of Kippure may have some white stuff during the coming week. Jeepers, I love this time of year, the anticipation is something else!

Snowbie

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting charts in the near future, not that it will likely be especially cold however.

Oooh!!Evelyn does not agree with you WC.:p

In all fairness to our met,they have been calling this cold spell for most of last week regardless of the model outputs including the operational runs.
Now she said just now in the forecast that its to get even colder with a definite cold air source from the north regardless of the strength of wind(wind chill) just adding to the bitterness.;)

arctictree

met.ie are now stating the possibility of sleet on hills tomorrow

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

LP's in the Irish Sea are always very interesting. Its hard to know what exactly will happen...

A

darkman2

Heavey hail shower atm.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Heavey hail shower atm.

I noticed something like that earlier here like wet hail.If you were above 2000ft it would be wet snow.

LoL I know it's extreme FI and a tad early yet ...

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png

I'll be landing into Heathrow on my way home on that day...I wonder will it pan out like that!

Kippure

I can confirm theres sleet and snow falling around the higher routes of wicklow in the heavier showers.

Gonzo

well winter has officially arrived in the south eastern half of England, widespread snow now falling across many areas between Manchester and London & south east in general. They always get it:(

Kippure

We,ll soon get our snow

Supercell

If only they allowed housing to be built around Sally Gap. Might be a bit windy and wet most of the year, but every winter yer gonna get snow.
I'd sign up to that!