She's coming..

Supercell

Yep I was just looking at the 12z ensembles for Dublin.
Remarkable agreement right up to next weekend with some runs approaching -10 levels and not all dry either. Possibly some wintry stuff on higher ground (and maybe in heavy showers to lower levels) by then, certainly one to keep an eye on.

ninebeanrows

Hey,

Looks like a cold plunge is likely, nothing long lived likely at this stage, although the upper level patterns do still look promising.

20c difference in 850hpa temps from Today to what it may be like next Friday

Trogdor

ECM looks nice:D, bit more prolonged than what GFS is showing too.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

Snowbie

Whats interesting is how consistent the ECM has been and may it continue,probably most consistent the ensembles have been since the March '06 cold spell.Super charts but outside the aul reliable time frame for my likin,be sunday before we can really believe our first potent cooler/cold spell will happen but a good early optimistic set up altogether.

WC wrote:

although the upper level patterns do still look promising.

Agreed.:)

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Super charts but outside the aul reliable time frame for my likin,be sunday before we can really believe our first potent cooler/cold spell will happen but a good early optimistic set up altogether.
Agreed.:)

I'd definitly agree there, whilst there is currently great agreement, it really is still FI territory out that far usually. Probably next tues/weds before we can be >50% confidant of the cooler runs currently forecast.

arctictree

Those ECM charts are looking really good for a cold snap next weekend but the GFS ones aren't as exciting.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110300!!/

The azores high seems to be joining up with the greenland high -- which is what we want - right??

Could be some thunder rain/snow if the winds veer northeasterly...

(Ahem - is this the first ramp of the season!!)

A

Trogdor

Nice chart from the 20th ensemble run....if only:p
http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-20-2-138.png?6

Danno

Wonder what the Met say at 1.05pm...

ninebeanrows

The disappointment has started early this year:D

No Northerly for here for sure, maybe for southeastern England and into Europe.

Our luck hasn't changed yet!:D;)

Trogdor

Weathercheck wrote: »

The disappointment has started early this year:D

No Northerly for here for sure, maybe for southeastern England and into Europe.

Our luck hasn't changed yet!:D;)

What about our most reliable model....JMA:p
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rjma1922.gif

SpitfireIV

My home weather station gave me an indication that 'she's coming' yesterday . For some reason I lost the remote control time signal, so when I looked at the clock it was 2 hours slow and the date said 14/11/47....there was a great snowfall in '47, right? Perhaps my weather station knows something the rest of us dont :p

Gonzo

another possible cold plunge next week? looks like the northerlys are more active in Europe this year than last already.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

arctictree

UKMO have issued a weather warning for Thursday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Looks like the next week or 2 will consist of sunny days like today broken by bouts of unstable north westerlies. We might even get a northerly thrown in....

A

Cornilius

I have been viewing forums from the uk they were discussing the gfs which may produce some sort of wintry conditions across the water what sort of weather are we in for over here?the boards seem very quiet I thought maybe wind and rain?

Snowbie

The ECM has thrown up yet another surprise for next week with a mid N Atlantic block with sustained northerlies and NE'ly which persists.Subject to change alright but very interesting synoptics for the time of year.

darkman2

Nice synoptics alright but, IMO, too early. If it was December or even the end of November I would be expecting more. Hopefully a trend synoptically though.

Snowbie

GFS 12z has a LP ploughing through and stopping height rises over Greenland,N Atlantic.A complete reverse to the ECM,watching 18z but with little confidence with that one predicting a complete turn around again.
Only November and is interesting watching the ensembles for this time of year.

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

Nice synoptics alright but, IMO, too early.

Speak for yourself!!, I know of at least one other person here that could easily see snow in November with semi decent synoptics

The uncertainty is pretty exciting this year, looking at the ensembles beyond only a few days from now give chaos, not even a hint of a trend, literally anything is possible.

Makes for exciting chart update reading though.

Snowbie

Longfield wrote:

I know of at least one other person here that could easily see snow in November with semi decent synoptics

Ah well,that rules me out then:D

Trogdor

Completely different evolution on the ECM 12z, building a scandy high extending over us with with the cold headed South
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1921.gif

arctictree

Longfield wrote: »

Speak for yourself!!, I know of at least one other person here that could easily see snow in November with semi decent synoptics

That's me!!! Here's hoping for some snow pretty soon! Maybe one of those arctic blasts over the next few weeks will give us something. I've seen snow a number of times here in November.

A

arctictree

Just had a look at the GFS charts for next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Looks like it will be fairly dry and calm with generally westerlies prevailing.

The chart for next Sunday looks v.interesting but thats still a bit far out I suppose!!

A

mike65

I just looked at that as I do everyday. I can't belive the amount of high-pressure, the terrible thing is when it relents we will proberly have a non-stop conveyor belt of fronts.

Has anyone seen reservoir levels recently?

Mike.

darkman2

Something of a Snow event this weekend on the 12z GFS run...........Ice day on Monday?;) Very nice trough arriving just in time. Check out Sunday night!

Snowbie

18z slightly inline with the 12z which is a surprise.A few more runs like these and anything is possible. 850mb temps gradually go negative throughout sunday and -5c envelops the whole country by the evening.So if any snow where to fall in showers ,they be confined to the North coast but an occluded front from the fax chart looks interesting enough.

Very interesting considering the time of year.

Fax chart for sunday,note the convergence line off our east coast

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4.gif

ninebeanrows

You beat me to it Snowbie!:D

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4.gif

Although not cold enough, things could change.

But that Covergence zone symbol in the Irish sea always gives me tinkles down my spine! It's a sign of true arctic air as that is what is needed for it to form!

It would potentially create some beefy hail showers with cold arctic air over a warm sea.;)

Trogdor

Weathercheck wrote: »

You beat me to it Snowbie!:D

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4.gif

Although not cold enough, things could change.

But that Convergence zone symbol in the Irish sea always gives me tinkles down my spine! It's a sign of true arctic air as that is what is needed for it to form!

It would potentially create some beefy hail showers with cold arctic air over a warm sea.;)

Great charts, i love that branch-like symbol:D. I was watching the 18z come out until i was distracted by Piers Corbyn making an appearance on TWO:eek:! The models do seem very keen to keep bringing back up a Northerly and sometimes an Easterly. Hopefully it will be a recurring theme throughout winter:D. Can't wait to see some white stuff, might be time for a second snow hunt.

Snowbie

Updated links WC,check out the snow risk too,certainly for higher elevations but with a N'ly wind, no real influence from the sea,possible down to lower elevations in the evening.

If the same is true of N'ly and over half decent SSTs, its condusive of some intense looking Cbs.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

You beat me to it Snowbie!:D

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4.gif

Although not cold enough, things could change.

But that Covergence zone symbol in the Irish sea always gives me tinkles down my spine! It's a sign of true arctic air as that is what is needed for it to form!

It would potentially create some beefy hail showers with cold arctic air over a warm sea.;)

I agree.
That kind of scenario would make for a much more realistic snow hunt up on Kippure,but it's not going to do anything much down at sea level apart from cold rain.
There could be very heavy showers though and thunder.

That said, that chart was issued on a tuesday.
It's a long time between tuesday and sunday.
Subtle changes make for big differences.

arctictree

Models are starting to agree now on a stiff northerly on Sunday turning north easterly on Monday. Still a bit of time to go yet but if the next few runs keep on the same track then it could turn interesting.

A