She's coming..

ninebeanrows

So what can we expect from the coming season, in my eyes addictive Model watching commences in a week. We'll soon be awaiting that crucial 18z GFS run at 930, praying that it doesnt go "tits up"!:D

The silly season is coming.

So what can we expect from this winter? Well with low sunspot activity, and indications of a negative NAO forming towards mid November i am rather optimistic.

The past 10 days have been very seasonal with a real chill in the evenings and mornings. Saw some amazing low level fog a few days back on a neighbouring footy pitch!

These are good signs. What we can now expect is a more unsettled Atlantic driven pattern to take hold for a short while. It will be interesting to see if the Atlantic will really take off or will Blocking be more dominant.

Although current forecasts do not suggest the best of outlooks for us snow searchers, i like them, living where we do there is always going to be an Atlantic influence but once we see a pattern where this influence is consistently stemmed by blocks and ridges it gives us hope.

No point having amazing synoptics now only for it to sleet on us! I'm keeping a keen eye on around mid November when it will begin to become possible for proper snow to fall.

Lately we have seen our winters fall in February/March, i wonder will this year be different, purely due to my childish impatience i hope it will be!

Here's to winter 07/08(:eek:, they're going around quick now! ) and whatever it brings;)

Let's hope for a good few:D:D:D

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote: »

The silly season is coming.

You got that right :rolleyes:;)

I share your sentiments though, can't wait for the fun and games and model scrutinising!

Snowbie

WC wrote:

Although current forecasts do not suggest the best of outlooks for us snow searchers, i like them, living where we do there is always going to be an Atlantic influence but once we see a pattern where this influence is consistently stemmed by blocks and ridges it gives us hope.

1982 comes to mind,but as brilliant a snow week it was,im peed off reminiscing.Lets hope and remember 07/08 in years to come.

arctictree

Yes, here's hoping for some early wintry weather. Has snowed in November a number of times in the last few years here...

A

Gonzo

I think its almost bound to be a lil bit colder than last winter at least which was very mild even by irish mild winter standards so heres hoping we see some decent flakes this winter. Im also hoping for a relatively dryish winter similar to what we've been having since september but with lower temperatures.

nilhg

Weathercheck wrote: »

The silly season is coming.:D:D:D

Hope springs eternal, but I think those days are gone, for the moment at least. I'm old enough to remember the 70's and 80's and to have heard the stories from my parents and uncles of the late 40's 50's and 60's and I genuinely think that apart from the odd short lived blast from the past, winter in this country is relegated to being (sometimes)cold (mostly cool), dark and miserable.

billy the squid

this christmas eve will be the tenth anniverary of hurricane noel. think we are overdue a good winter storm

Trogdor

I'm optimistic too this year, although that usually turns out to be a bad thing:(:p

SpitfireIV

billy the squid wrote: »

this christmas eve will be the tenth anniverary of hurricane noel. think we are overdue a good winter storm

10 years! Wow......only like yesterday, that Christmas time was horrible, stormy on Christmas Eve, and stormy again On Stephens Day if I remember right?

peasant

billy the squid wrote: »

. .. think we are overdue a good winter ... storm

Don't know where YOU were last winter ... I've had enough storms here to be perfectly happy with a nice, calm, crisp winter for a change.

Wouldn't mind some snow ...there could be snow for four months as far as I'm concerned ...but no more storms, thank you very much

Supercell

Yep, unless there's lightening, last winter fulfilled my decadal quota of storms.

That said, if sneachta is involved, I'm withdrawing the comments above.

boardsdotie

billy the squid wrote: »

this christmas eve will be the tenth anniverary of hurricane noel. think we are overdue a good winter storm

Tropical storm Noel just named, Wierd

dubtom

I can't believe you people are hoping for bad weather. Won't somebody think of the children,or at least the people who work outside...like me. God damn yis.:eek:

darkman2

The models atm indicate a very ordinary (bad scenario for those who are really looking for cold weather) setup for the next couple of weeks. Though it is early - it is not a great start to November.

ninebeanrows

Indeed DM, current runs have been not very inspiring at all.

arctictree

Looks like some nice HP though on the way for next weekend....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

Next few days will be interesting to see how this turns out.

A

mike65

The broad outlook seems pretty settled to me. Which is good!

Mike.

ninebeanrows

Guess when?

10th of February last year, the day i thought we would witness the biggest snow since February 27th 2001, also the day of my mock maths exam! But i hadnt studied thinking it would snow realllllllly bad.

It was about 2 degress away from being an epic snow event. The extreme temperatures across Europe led to a hugely depleted cold pool.

It had hallmarks of a certain event in 82'

arctictree

Weathercheck wrote: »

It was about 2 degress away from being an epic snow event.

2 degrees? Thats all we needed up here!!

A

Villain

Well I've moved jobs to wicklow just so I might see some snow!

Well thats not true but it is a bonus, I know we have a few Wicklow weather heads here, so quick question for you, I'll be driving from Tullow to near Rathnew for the whole winter via Tinahely, Aughrim and Glenealy do these roads see much snow on average?

Oh and I predict a white xmas I have a wedding to go to on the 28th of Dec so if I was snowed in and unable to make it that would be great

missloulou

In Wicklow we only had a little bit of snow in February, it was not sufficient to get snowed in but fingers crossed for this Winter!

arctictree

irish1 wrote: »

Well I've moved jobs to wicklow just so I might see some snow!

Well thats not true but it is a bonus, I know we have a few Wicklow weather heads here, so quick question for you, I'll be driving from Tullow to near Rathnew for the whole winter via Tinahely, Aughrim and Glenealy do these roads see much snow on average?

Oh and I predict a white xmas I have a wedding to go to on the 28th of Dec so if I was snowed in and unable to make it that would be great

Well, you'll certainly see snow on the mountains but I can't think of any particularly high points on that road. Highest point I think is around 150M near Rathdrum. But if you are travelling every day for the whole winter then your bound to encounter some snow on the journey!! Good luck with that and drive carefully!!

A

Supercell

arctictree wrote: »

Well, you'll certainly see snow on the mountains but I can't think of any particularly high points on that road. Highest point I think is around 150M near Rathdrum. But if you are travelling every day for the whole winter then your bound to encounter some snow on the journey!! Good luck with that and drive carefully!!

A

Yep keep the chin up, many didnt even see a little.
It was a close run thing though last year, Arctictree and myself had two events with lying snowing the morning, one with several days of the stuff (I had five days last winter with at least 1cm of lying snow on the open at 09:00 in the morning). That was only about 1°C away from being the best snowfall in a long time in Dublin..it was very very close.

I hope we are gonna see snow this winter..believe me...this will be the place to see pics of it..or find out when its arriving...Ireland is OVERDUE a decent fall..

Is this gonna be the winter to rival 01', '91, '82, 63' 47' etc, only time will tell.

Kippure

I work in aughrim "macredian village" on a regular basis, Its in a valley. Last winter when it was cold it stayed cold. The roads in winter are very slippery with frost. I take the highest routes home in winter just to see snow. Sure someone has to do it.....

ch750536

I remember snow when it was just a field.

Would love to meet it again someday.

Seems little chance these days though.

mike65

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI023;WATERFORD;&metric=1

No snow, or rain even

Mike.

Gonzo

Why didnt we have charts like these in June, July & August! If the conditions of the past 2 months had happened in the summer we wuda had some great temperatures and a proper summer I think! At the same time im not complaining, bring on more long weeks of dry weather were I can still go outside and do stuff. Leave the winter till Christmas week/January/February I say:)

gurramok

Interesting!

Now its sunny spells and quite mild outside, forecast of 15C daytime over the next couple days and its Nov 1st.
Its like as if Autumn has arrived but it already arrived in summer, at this rate we might get winter around April
Its been donkeys years since i seen sticky snow that 'sticked' for more than a day in north dubland, so fingers crossed and take some pics people!

mike65

No doubt it'll be deceided this is all down to man made global warming, rather than being a benign high pressure.

Mike.

darkman2

Good news from the Artic is that sea ice is recovering exceptionally well and fast. The growth has been expodential in the last 10 days and I think overall a very positive picture. However snowfall remains, in general with some exceptions, behind target but only slightly. Bare in mind to this year has seen some pretty large positive anomalies in the area contributing to melt so a nice comeback.

ninebeanrows

It looks like the current period of way above average temperatures will come to an end soon with really interesting synoptics prevailing. Lots of blocking and potential for a Strong Northerly flow, ECM is really pushing for it while the GFS is beginning to side with it.

Whatever the case, more seasonal conditions with frost are likely from next week

Supercell

Yep I was just looking at the 12z ensembles for Dublin.
Remarkable agreement right up to next weekend with some runs approaching -10 levels and not all dry either. Possibly some wintry stuff on higher ground (and maybe in heavy showers to lower levels) by then, certainly one to keep an eye on.

ninebeanrows

Hey,

Looks like a cold plunge is likely, nothing long lived likely at this stage, although the upper level patterns do still look promising.

20c difference in 850hpa temps from Today to what it may be like next Friday

Trogdor

ECM looks nice:D, bit more prolonged than what GFS is showing too.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110212!!/

Snowbie

Whats interesting is how consistent the ECM has been and may it continue,probably most consistent the ensembles have been since the March '06 cold spell.Super charts but outside the aul reliable time frame for my likin,be sunday before we can really believe our first potent cooler/cold spell will happen but a good early optimistic set up altogether.

WC wrote:

although the upper level patterns do still look promising.

Agreed.:)

Supercell

Snowbie wrote: »

Super charts but outside the aul reliable time frame for my likin,be sunday before we can really believe our first potent cooler/cold spell will happen but a good early optimistic set up altogether.
Agreed.:)

I'd definitly agree there, whilst there is currently great agreement, it really is still FI territory out that far usually. Probably next tues/weds before we can be >50% confidant of the cooler runs currently forecast.

arctictree

Those ECM charts are looking really good for a cold snap next weekend but the GFS ones aren't as exciting.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007110300!!/

The azores high seems to be joining up with the greenland high -- which is what we want - right??

Could be some thunder rain/snow if the winds veer northeasterly...

(Ahem - is this the first ramp of the season!!)

A

Trogdor

Nice chart from the 20th ensemble run....if only:p
http://91.121.0.76/modeles/gens/run/gens-20-2-138.png?6

Danno

Wonder what the Met say at 1.05pm...

ninebeanrows

The disappointment has started early this year:D

No Northerly for here for sure, maybe for southeastern England and into Europe.

Our luck hasn't changed yet!:D;)

Trogdor

Weathercheck wrote: »

The disappointment has started early this year:D

No Northerly for here for sure, maybe for southeastern England and into Europe.

Our luck hasn't changed yet!:D;)

What about our most reliable model....JMA:p
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rjma1921.gif
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rjma1922.gif

SpitfireIV

My home weather station gave me an indication that 'she's coming' yesterday . For some reason I lost the remote control time signal, so when I looked at the clock it was 2 hours slow and the date said 14/11/47....there was a great snowfall in '47, right? Perhaps my weather station knows something the rest of us dont :p

Gonzo

another possible cold plunge next week? looks like the northerlys are more active in Europe this year than last already.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

arctictree

UKMO have issued a weather warning for Thursday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Looks like the next week or 2 will consist of sunny days like today broken by bouts of unstable north westerlies. We might even get a northerly thrown in....

A

Cornilius

I have been viewing forums from the uk they were discussing the gfs which may produce some sort of wintry conditions across the water what sort of weather are we in for over here?the boards seem very quiet I thought maybe wind and rain?

Snowbie

The ECM has thrown up yet another surprise for next week with a mid N Atlantic block with sustained northerlies and NE'ly which persists.Subject to change alright but very interesting synoptics for the time of year.

darkman2

Nice synoptics alright but, IMO, too early. If it was December or even the end of November I would be expecting more. Hopefully a trend synoptically though.

Snowbie

GFS 12z has a LP ploughing through and stopping height rises over Greenland,N Atlantic.A complete reverse to the ECM,watching 18z but with little confidence with that one predicting a complete turn around again.
Only November and is interesting watching the ensembles for this time of year.

Supercell

darkman2 wrote: »

Nice synoptics alright but, IMO, too early.

Speak for yourself!!, I know of at least one other person here that could easily see snow in November with semi decent synoptics

The uncertainty is pretty exciting this year, looking at the ensembles beyond only a few days from now give chaos, not even a hint of a trend, literally anything is possible.

Makes for exciting chart update reading though.

Snowbie

Longfield wrote:

I know of at least one other person here that could easily see snow in November with semi decent synoptics

Ah well,that rules me out then:D

Trogdor

Completely different evolution on the ECM 12z, building a scandy high extending over us with with the cold headed South
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1921.gif