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18-06-2018, 14:21   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Turning very warm/hot, heatwave conditions likely; Sunday 24th -->

There are some bullish indications that the warm, dry and mostly sunny weather will be returning from Friday. Later in the weekend and for the early days of next week, depending on how the high pressure orientates itself, we could be seeing temperatures getting well up to the mid to high twenties away from windward coasts.

Just to note in advance one other outcome is that high pressure retrogresses in to the Atlantic or toward Greenland leaving us in a cool northerly flow. This is not a likely outcome based on the models at the moment. Favored is the very warm or hot route with high pressure stationed near or over Ireland and increasingly continental type flow.

The potential for high temperatures is one thing but the real story here could could be the very dry or even drought like conditions in the east and south which have not seen appreciable amounts of rain now for some months.

The normal pattern after high pressure is positioned over us for a few days is to see high pressure fall away southeast allowing low pressure and increasing humdity from Biscay to move up from south, this brings even hotter air but potentially very unstable and we may get thunderstorms at that stage.




Again on the UKMO we see high pressure building toward the country from the southwest and the Atlantic fronts pushed well to the northwest. (not to say there won't be cloud at this stage, there will still be some mostly morning gloom but should be burning off quickly)



If temperature records are to be tested it is the right time of year and it looks tentatively on the cards if we get any kind of continental influence.

To recap temperatures rising from Friday with increasing amounts of sunshine. No appreciable rain in the east and south in the meantime. (Some heavy rain in the northern half of the country tomorrow) One fly in the ointment is that for the far north and northwest this process takes a little longer so add a couple of days to clear Atlantic dross here.

It should also become increasingly uncomfortable though next week for sleeping conditions at night.

Potential hazards (next week):

High Temperature



Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 18-06-2018 at 23:29.
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18-06-2018, 16:13   #2
Clonmel1000
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How long could this last Kermit?
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18-06-2018, 16:27   #3
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How long could this last Kermit?
Let's get the pattern going before we worry about when it's going to end. Nobody knows.

The CFSv2 weekly anomalies show high pressure over top of Ireland all the way through its latest run which goes out to the 15th July. Whilst this like any other model is open to change quickly, it has been very bullish of this for weeks now and I remember at the start of May that it was showing a classic May with lots of high pressure influences. I posted about this in the FI Charts for Spring 2018 thread. It was certainly right then, let's hope it's right again. Throughout the run, it also shows significantly drier and warmer than conditions for the entirety of Ireland.



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18-06-2018, 17:21   #4
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GFS 12z seems to be an upgrade so far from its 0z and 06z runs. Less influence from the jet stream and high pressure more centred over the country. Sunday 24th for comparison on each of the runs.

0z



06z



12z

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18-06-2018, 17:24   #5
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How long could this last Kermit?
Is hard to tell, the last event nearly ended a few times but powered on.
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18-06-2018, 17:30   #6
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UKMO is back in line with what the other models were showing. Classic high over top of us! A plus is cold air being sent to Iberia on this UKMO run which could in turn send the heat up to us.



The ICON performed very well with the Beast From the East so let's see if it will this time. Similar in line with other models, warm and dry.

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18-06-2018, 18:45   #7
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A warm to toasty run from the GEM also, still waiting on the ECM to appear.



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18-06-2018, 18:59   #8
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And to think some people were throwing the toys out of the pram a few days ago saying summer was over
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18-06-2018, 19:09   #9
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Not a bad GFS run either, wants to bring the wet back in towards the end of the run but that's typical GFS
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18-06-2018, 19:54   #10
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I would love to see Ireland's temperature record being beaten at some stage during my lifetime, preferably this summer, to see somewhere reach 34C would be great.

I am hoping for proper warmth this time around with the Irish Sea having much less of an impact on temperatures.
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18-06-2018, 19:56   #11
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Good news... the ECM agrees with the other models. The potential for a heatwave is there but we can't be sure yet.
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18-06-2018, 20:17   #12
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Good news... the ECM agrees with the other models. The potential for a heatwave is there but we can't be sure yet.
To add onto that, it is showing 30c in Kildare on the 28th of June at 1pm. Could get even higher at 3-4pm. Again, don't get overly excited just yet because it is too far out. (If that were to verify I would say 30c would be a bit more widespread than what the ECM is showing)
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18-06-2018, 20:20   #13
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Yep, another ECM run to bank. Definitive heatwave conditions. Has a 1976 look to it. 1976 holds Ireland's second highest temperature on record, 32.3c.

These have to be the most summery charts I've seen in my model watching years (I wasn't here for July 2013).






Last edited by sryanbruen; 18-06-2018 at 20:23.
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18-06-2018, 20:55   #14
Kermit.de.frog
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Yep, on track for now.

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18-06-2018, 20:58   #15
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Whatever about June, I'm going all in. The 33.3C record will be broken somewhere in Ireland between now and the end of July.

It's been a year for it. Record wind, record snow (not all time records but damn close on both accounts) - why not record heat too.

The really interesting question is what happens next. Does the recent change toward more extreme weather keep growing? Does it speed up? Or does everything go back to boring normal after the summer?
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