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08-01-2015, 04:19   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Cold snap Jan 10th onwards: Wintry Showers, Snow Accumulations for some

Folks,

Snow showers becoming heavy and frequent in the northwest and north early Saturday morning should extend to many other places (but not all) during daylight hours with the potential for significant falls in the northwest particularly later Saturday evening. The far southeast could stay dry.

For Sunday it will be slightly milder with any showers dieing out and a thaw as a ridge of high pressure builds in - though frosty Sunday night. Lowest temperature around -2c away from high ground.

On Monday and Tuesday a new phase of polar maritime air returns with showers increasingly of snow widespread and heavy at times particularly on hills and in the west.

Temperatures generally between 3 or 4c in the east but lower further northwest and struggling above freezing where any snow settles. Ice restricted due to strong wind except Sunday night.

Winds mostly on the strong side, gales at times.

Depending on how things turn out for later next week this could be the beginning of a longer period of colder weather but that remains to be determined in the next couple of days.

More later.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 08-01-2015 at 04:32.
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08-01-2015, 06:59   #2
JanuarySnowstor
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Agree fully with above potential
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08-01-2015, 08:28   #3
Tom Cruises Left Nut
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Agree fully with above potential
A rare occurence indeed !

Only joking dude ! Will be interesting to see where showers crop up, there could be a few that make the trip inland !
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08-01-2015, 08:54   #4
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Would love this to come to fruition, but how comes MT never mentioned such an event in today forecast form himself?
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08-01-2015, 09:19   #5
pauldry
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still not set in stone

only yesterday there was no talk of this.

if there are a few more good runs today we should be more confident
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08-01-2015, 10:43   #6
 
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A long sea track will mean significant modification at lower levels so even if 850hPa temps are cold I think sea level temps will be a few degrees above freezing. Pressure is also quite high away from the north so showers will likely be on the lighter side away from NW coasts. Potential is definitely there though and I'd be surprised if some inland northern areas don't see accumulating snow.

Can anyone recall a widespread snow event from a westerly? Probably more likely later in the season when SST's are colder
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08-01-2015, 10:46   #7
JanuarySnowstor
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Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year
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08-01-2015, 10:57   #8
Birdnuts
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Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year
Jan and Feb 1984 had some snowy North Westerly outbreaks alright.
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08-01-2015, 11:07   #9
Elmer Blooker
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Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year
That would have been 1984. I vaguely remember a Sunday afternoon in the snow covered Phoenix Park and having looked up the 1984 calendar it has to be this day - the 15th. It is the only occasion that I'm aware of that a westerly gave lying snow in eastern areas? Christmas Day 2004 was close but it was wet snow that didn't stick.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ar...0119840115.gif
edit: only saw Birdnut's post after I posted this.
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08-01-2015, 11:08   #10
 
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Snow warning for Northern Ireland from Valid from: 0600 on Sat 10 Jan 2015, Valid to: 1200 on Sun 11 Jan 2015


Heavy showers are likely across the warning area, these falling as snow at low levels across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, but over high ground further south. Within the area there could be localised small snow accumulations away from immediate coasts at low levels in the north, whilst over high ground 5-15 cm may occur in places. Temperatures will fall significantly during Saturday, this also posing the risk of ice where showers occur.

As temperatures are expected to take a plunge, icy conditions are also likely on some roads. Snow showers will also be accompanied by strong or very strong winds and this will likely give blizzard conditions over higher ground, leading to treacherous driving conditions on higher routes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...&regionName=ni
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08-01-2015, 11:37   #11
Sleety_Rain
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Definite chance of snow with this westerly. Really low thicknesses.

Nonetheless probably be a transient affair, and mainly lie at night but this westerly is pushing east so rapidly that it isn't get modified as quickly as usual.

Areas inland by 20-30miles from the west coast probably stand the best chance, infact the showers that hit eastern areas during the very cold PM incursion will probably fall as snow.
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08-01-2015, 11:49   #12
highdef
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And big changes in the latest GFS-P runs are showing the deep low pressure of the 14th now modelled further south, entering the SW and exiting the east with cold air remaining throughout in a line from about Galway to Dundalk/Belfast. Not in any way set in stone but it shows how volatile the situation is.

Even before this, the GFS-P is showing a fair bit of wintry precip in the strong westerly winds in the preceding days before the 14th with temps barely above freezing in many areas on the 13th.

Yet another fairly deep model is also modelled to pass to our south on the 15th and this is currently giving heavy snow for much of Wales and southern/middle England, away from southern coastal areas. If this low does materialise but passes 100 - 150km further north, it could give a dumping in many areas of Ireland.

And another low is showing up on the 17th which does have a more northerly track however the charts are still updating so not sure what this is currently forecast to deliver.....very much into FI at that point but what we need is a reoccurrence of these types of charts to keep hope that a trend may be appearing......straw clutching????
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08-01-2015, 11:49   #13
arctictree
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I have to drive over the Wicklow gap on Saturday, hopefully it wont be too bad at that stage....
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08-01-2015, 12:10   #14
 
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
Yes I can recall one which was significant
Early 80's in January but don't know exact year
January 1982 - three short, intense snowstorms painted Ireland white for the best part of three weeks. The heaviest fall was a 36-hour blizzard which began on January 7th. I was in UCD that day and and had to leave my Honda 70 there for a week as the roads were impassible! No buses were runing and schools and colleges were closed for a week or more.

The east was the worst affected area, with Dublin City notching up some 2.5-ft in some parts, while the drifts rose to five and six feet in the suburbs. Hundreds of motorists were rescued from their cars on the Naas dual carriageway. There were a further two weighty falls over a ten day period which, combined with snow showers drifting in from the Irish Sea, added to the snow that had already frozen and compacted on the ground.

Michael O’Leary TD was appointed as ‘Minister for Snow’, to coordinate emergency services. Power cuts and bread and milk shortages were widespread for a while and thousands of sheep died in the Wicklow mountains.
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08-01-2015, 12:16   #15
Tabnabs
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January 1982 - three short, intense snowstorms painted Ireland white for the best part of three weeks. The heaviest fall was a 36-hour blizzard which began on January 7th. I was in UCD that day and and had to leave my Honda 70 there for a week as the roads were impassible! No buses were runing and schools and colleges were closed for a week or more.

The east was the worst affected area, with Dublin City notching up some 2.5-ft in some parts, while the drifts rose to five and six feet in the suburbs. Hundreds of motorists were rescued from their cars on the Naas dual carriageway. There were a further two weighty falls over a ten day period which, combined with snow showers drifting in from the Irish Sea, added to the snow that had already frozen and compacted on the ground.

Michael O’Leary TD was appointed as ‘Minister for Snow’, to coordinate emergency services. Power cuts and bread and milk shortages were widespread for a while and thousands of sheep died in the Wicklow mountains.
And my old man made the front cover of the Irish Press, skiing in a field near Tibradden Cross (now the M50). Skiing in Ireland in the early 80s was considered exotic and even newsworthy
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