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Cold snap Jan 10th onwards: Wintry Showers, Snow Accumulations for some

  • 08-01-2015 4:19am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Folks,

    Snow showers becoming heavy and frequent in the northwest and north early Saturday morning should extend to many other places (but not all) during daylight hours with the potential for significant falls in the northwest particularly later Saturday evening. The far southeast could stay dry.

    For Sunday it will be slightly milder with any showers dieing out and a thaw as a ridge of high pressure builds in - though frosty Sunday night. Lowest temperature around -2c away from high ground.

    On Monday and Tuesday a new phase of polar maritime air returns with showers increasingly of snow widespread and heavy at times particularly on hills and in the west.

    Temperatures generally between 3 or 4c in the east but lower further northwest and struggling above freezing where any snow settles. Ice restricted due to strong wind except Sunday night.

    Winds mostly on the strong side, gales at times.

    Depending on how things turn out for later next week this could be the beginning of a longer period of colder weather but that remains to be determined in the next couple of days.

    More later.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Agree fully with above potential


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Agree fully with above potential

    A rare occurence indeed ! :pac::P

    Only joking dude ! Will be interesting to see where showers crop up, there could be a few that make the trip inland !


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,684 ✭✭✭MoodeRator


    Would love this to come to fruition, but how comes MT never mentioned such an event in today forecast form himself?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    still not set in stone

    only yesterday there was no talk of this.

    if there are a few more good runs today we should be more confident


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    A long sea track will mean significant modification at lower levels so even if 850hPa temps are cold I think sea level temps will be a few degrees above freezing. Pressure is also quite high away from the north so showers will likely be on the lighter side away from NW coasts. Potential is definitely there though and I'd be surprised if some inland northern areas don't see accumulating snow.

    Can anyone recall a widespread snow event from a westerly? Probably more likely later in the season when SST's are colder


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes I can recall one which was significant
    Early 80's in January but don't know exact year


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Yes I can recall one which was significant
    Early 80's in January but don't know exact year

    Jan and Feb 1984 had some snowy North Westerly outbreaks alright.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Yes I can recall one which was significant
    Early 80's in January but don't know exact year
    That would have been 1984. I vaguely remember a Sunday afternoon in the snow covered Phoenix Park and having looked up the 1984 calendar it has to be this day - the 15th. It is the only occasion that I'm aware of that a westerly gave lying snow in eastern areas? Christmas Day 2004 was close but it was wet snow that didn't stick.
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif
    edit: only saw Birdnut's post after I posted this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    Snow warning for Northern Ireland from Valid from: 0600 on Sat 10 Jan 2015, Valid to: 1200 on Sun 11 Jan 2015


    Heavy showers are likely across the warning area, these falling as snow at low levels across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland, but over high ground further south. Within the area there could be localised small snow accumulations away from immediate coasts at low levels in the north, whilst over high ground 5-15 cm may occur in places. Temperatures will fall significantly during Saturday, this also posing the risk of ice where showers occur.

    As temperatures are expected to take a plunge, icy conditions are also likely on some roads. Snow showers will also be accompanied by strong or very strong winds and this will likely give blizzard conditions over higher ground, leading to treacherous driving conditions on higher routes.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420848000&regionName=ni


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Definite chance of snow with this westerly. Really low thicknesses.

    Nonetheless probably be a transient affair, and mainly lie at night but this westerly is pushing east so rapidly that it isn't get modified as quickly as usual.

    Areas inland by 20-30miles from the west coast probably stand the best chance, infact the showers that hit eastern areas during the very cold PM incursion will probably fall as snow.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,085 ✭✭✭highdef


    And big changes in the latest GFS-P runs are showing the deep low pressure of the 14th now modelled further south, entering the SW and exiting the east with cold air remaining throughout in a line from about Galway to Dundalk/Belfast. Not in any way set in stone but it shows how volatile the situation is.

    Even before this, the GFS-P is showing a fair bit of wintry precip in the strong westerly winds in the preceding days before the 14th with temps barely above freezing in many areas on the 13th.

    Yet another fairly deep model is also modelled to pass to our south on the 15th and this is currently giving heavy snow for much of Wales and southern/middle England, away from southern coastal areas. If this low does materialise but passes 100 - 150km further north, it could give a dumping in many areas of Ireland.

    And another low is showing up on the 17th which does have a more northerly track however the charts are still updating so not sure what this is currently forecast to deliver.....very much into FI at that point but what we need is a reoccurrence of these types of charts to keep hope that a trend may be appearing......straw clutching????


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,278 ✭✭✭arctictree


    I have to drive over the Wicklow gap on Saturday, hopefully it wont be too bad at that stage....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,841 ✭✭✭Squatter


    Yes I can recall one which was significant
    Early 80's in January but don't know exact year

    January 1982 - three short, intense snowstorms painted Ireland white for the best part of three weeks. The heaviest fall was a 36-hour blizzard which began on January 7th. I was in UCD that day and and had to leave my Honda 70 there for a week as the roads were impassible! No buses were runing and schools and colleges were closed for a week or more.

    The east was the worst affected area, with Dublin City notching up some 2.5-ft in some parts, while the drifts rose to five and six feet in the suburbs. Hundreds of motorists were rescued from their cars on the Naas dual carriageway. There were a further two weighty falls over a ten day period which, combined with snow showers drifting in from the Irish Sea, added to the snow that had already frozen and compacted on the ground.

    Michael O’Leary TD was appointed as ‘Minister for Snow’, to coordinate emergency services. Power cuts and bread and milk shortages were widespread for a while and thousands of sheep died in the Wicklow mountains.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,673 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Squatter wrote: »
    January 1982 - three short, intense snowstorms painted Ireland white for the best part of three weeks. The heaviest fall was a 36-hour blizzard which began on January 7th. I was in UCD that day and and had to leave my Honda 70 there for a week as the roads were impassible! No buses were runing and schools and colleges were closed for a week or more.

    The east was the worst affected area, with Dublin City notching up some 2.5-ft in some parts, while the drifts rose to five and six feet in the suburbs. Hundreds of motorists were rescued from their cars on the Naas dual carriageway. There were a further two weighty falls over a ten day period which, combined with snow showers drifting in from the Irish Sea, added to the snow that had already frozen and compacted on the ground.

    Michael O’Leary TD was appointed as ‘Minister for Snow’, to coordinate emergency services. Power cuts and bread and milk shortages were widespread for a while and thousands of sheep died in the Wicklow mountains.

    And my old man made the front cover of the Irish Press, skiing in a field near Tibradden Cross (now the M50). Skiing in Ireland in the early 80s was considered exotic and even newsworthy :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Not sure whether it was 82 or 84.
    All I do remember was that the wind was westerly.
    I also remember it turning southwesterly at times and that it lasted at least a week.

    So a westerly can deliver if everything falls into place


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Weather on tv just said wintry showers on high ground...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Evelyn just on there saying "perhaps some wintry showers" in NW on Sat,time will tell i suppose


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Yep , still looks like some light snow showers for the N and NW Saturday above 150m or so.
    334099.png

    334100.png

    334101.png

    Tuesday is looking a bit more favorable for more widespread snow risk in the W and mindlands again . The odd shower making it to the Wicklow mountains .Still time for that setup to go either way though.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes some Wintriness around the weekend and even better fun and games perhaps for Tuesday

    gfs-6-126_rqz4.png

    Some lovely Polar air racing across the Atlantic. Could be good.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,348 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I wouldn't be as pessimistic as Iancar29 regarding snowfall at low levels on Saturday nor how widespread precipitation may be given most of the variables are on the right side of favourable but I agree with Redsunset to a certain extent that the bigger "prize" potentially is from Monday night. Lots of interesting outcomes available for the following few days. It's not a question of whether we will get snow but rather how much and in what form because there is a hint around midweek that a secondary low from the southwest might interact with this air mass bringing potentially a longer period of sleet and snow to some places for a while. But it's too early for specifics.

    12z's out soon. We can start going in to more detail at this stage for the weekend anyway.

    But I know some get frustrated with the language we have to use here at times and how it can seem unclear, indecisive and confusing.

    It will turn much colder this weekend with snow showers on Saturday and Saturday night. Most of these in the northwest and down along the west coast so places like Derry, Sligo, Galway, Limerick etc have a real chance of snow but some getting through to other areas as well. Temperatures during Saturday in low single figures. Slightly milder for Sunday and part of Monday before potentially even colder weather returns again bringing more snow showers and low temperatures.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Not sure whether it was 82 or 84.
    All I do remember was that the wind was westerly.
    I also remember it turning southwesterly at times and that it lasted at least a week.

    So a westerly can deliver if everything falls into place

    82 was an Easterly event, not a Westerly as progged next week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    I don't know about you folks but I am getting real excited.
    Good timing too, January can be a dreary month.
    Even to see decent snow on the hills will make me happy.
    Thanks!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Massive week coming up for weather fans.
    At least one significant storm looks like making a direct hit mid next week.

    Also and more importantly snow chances quite widespread from Saturday and esp next Tuesday.
    I would think by Tuesday night most will have seen at least some white stuff.
    Whether it will stick is uncertain though...


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,267 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    MoodeRator wrote: »
    Would love this to come to fruition, but how comes MT never mentioned such an event in today forecast form himself?

    Actually the forecast mentions wintry showers or mixed showers over the period but I do suspect it will be somewhat elevation-limited most of the time, meaning snow could fall above 150m or so. Should have been in to clarify this earlier but I have not been on line much since posting last night.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 230 ✭✭AnotherYear


    The Met office fc snow to low levels in NI, they have a warning out at present for it. Further South it will be more elevation based. I suppose will find out on Saturday one way or another.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,816 ✭✭✭Baggy Trousers


    So is it looking like snow on higher ground mainly for the next few days?

    This is MT's update;
    SATURDAY ... Windy and cold with passing wintry showers, some accumulations of snow possible on hills in Connacht, Ulster. Hail at lower elevations, but some sunny intervals also. Winds westerly 60-90 km/hr, highs 3-6 C.

    SUNDAY ... Not as windy but continuing cold with passing wintry showers, morning lows -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 7 C.

    MONDAY ... Morning rain with milder temperatures for a few hours (7-9 C) then back into colder and blustery conditions with mixed wintry showers redeveloping, winds westerly 70-100 km/hr.

    TUESDAY ... Breezy or windy at times, cold, passing wintry showers with some snow accumulations north and west on higher ground. Lows near -2 C and highs near 4 or 5 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Watching this closely as I have a day away planned for Mizen Head tomorrow..I know we are not in direct line but small car does not like snow and ice and I cannot walk far!. Grateful for updates etc... South Kerry with so many mountains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I think the thread title should be Wintry showers, the current implies snow occuring widely and the evidence isn't there for it. Elevations in the north and west only.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yes maybe snow tues morning but only hail and sleet tomorrow


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    I may be wrong but looking at the charts myself I would have thought that showers will be mostly snow tomorrow especially in the afternoon/evening (with the exception of windward coasts maybe).


This discussion has been closed.
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