Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Thread Closed  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
15-07-2014, 05:10   #1
Kermit.de.frog
Registered User
 
Kermit.de.frog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 9,903
Very Warm, Thunderstorms, Flash flooding - Friday through weekend

On Thursday an area of instability will approach the country from the south after some very warm and humid air embeds itself over the country. Incidentally this brings nice beach and garden weather at times with temperatures in to the mid twenties but also the real threat of some potentially severe storms.

The main focus of concern is Thursday night and Friday morning. This is the period that we could see some severe weather originating in the Bay of Biscay and driving north toward Ireland with focus of attention the south coast but even more so the southeast and east though in reality all areas are at risk.

This will probably materialise and at this point flash flooding is likely so it's something to be aware of. Frequent lightning and some hail is also possible but the hail is more likely during the weekend in western and midland areas. Rainfall totals could mount quickly in downpours.

Having seen the main action through on Thursday night and Friday the focus turns inland for the weekend were thunderstorms should develop when convection gets going during daylight. Though different in origin and homegrown so to speak these could conceivably be unusually large and intense storms for Ireland. All the ingredients are there for intense weather. The midlands, west and north are most at risk over the weekend.

It will be very warm and humid throughout the weekend.

Thunderstorms by their nature are hit and miss. Just make sure you don't caught out! I'm sure the mods will change it as best fits the risk because the models can change suddenly. I'm happy enough with this forecast.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 17-07-2014 at 05:09.
Kermit.de.frog is online now  
Advertisement
15-07-2014, 08:54   #2
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,611
In theory,if I liked lightning and for that initial biscay push wexfords the place to be.
The fly in the ointment from the thunderstorm point of view is a gale off the Irish Sea.
That could scupper and often does scupper the thunder.
A lot of rain though.
whitebriar is offline  
15-07-2014, 11:12   #3
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 3,538
BBC forecast this morning warned of 'potent and disruptive thunderstorms' for Friday and Saturday with some very bright colours across Ireland and the UK on the rainfall chart. Temperatures will get above 30C over here with high humidity so it's definitely going to be an interesting spell of weather if all goes to plan

Needless to say though the forecast will change over the next 48 hours so it's still too early to get our hopes up
Harps is offline  
15-07-2014, 13:01   #4
KingdomRushed
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 306
England looks set for the really severe weather, more particularly the south and east of England. There will probably be a few thunderstorms here, but I don't think it will be explosive enough for anything truly memorable.
KingdomRushed is offline  
15-07-2014, 14:12   #5
Gonzo
Moderator
 
Gonzo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 10,562
Send a message via MSN to Gonzo
temperatures here also will be alot lower than England, particularly eastern Ireland may only see 17-20C over next few days, with higher temperatures of 18-23C in the midlands and west. That's still warm enough for most people.
Gonzo is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
15-07-2014, 14:57   #6
Iancar29
Registered User
 
Iancar29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,999
Not be best to keep everything in the Convective thread no? :/
Iancar29 is offline  
Thanks from:
15-07-2014, 15:15   #7
Kermit.de.frog
Registered User
 
Kermit.de.frog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 9,903
At the moment this looks like a potential "event" (that could change) rather than the usual inland convective storms with warnings possible nearer the time from the met agencies so I think it deserves a separate build up and discussion thread. And lets be honest - it's been a pretty straight forward summer so far - so lets hope this sparks some interest.

I see mentioned above the possibility of some high rainfall totals, rates too but I disagree a little about the winds off the Irish sea. I don't think it will be that brisk and in any case on Thursday night it's not the usual inland convective based storms but something more organised from the south that we have to watch. These sort of setups tend to deliver. I have memories of good storms from identical synoptic situations in previous summers.

Will post a more comprehensive update after the 12pm model runs.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 15-07-2014 at 15:44.
Kermit.de.frog is online now  
15-07-2014, 15:50   #8
Larbre34
Registered User
 
Larbre34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 11,282
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iancar29 View Post
Not be best to keep everything in the Convective thread no? :/
More for modelling, this is no harm for a "golfball hail in my back garden" or "why is it only drizzling" thread, specific to this progged event
Larbre34 is offline  
15-07-2014, 17:36   #9
goat2
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 4,760
mt cranium made a long term forecast and so far his predictions are right,
goat2 is offline  
Advertisement
15-07-2014, 18:02   #10
Kermit.de.frog
Registered User
 
Kermit.de.frog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 9,903
Quote:
Originally Posted by whitebriar View Post
In theory,if I liked lightning and for that initial biscay push wexfords the place to be.
Some of the higher resolution models certainly giving signals that way and some decent rain rates too.




12 pm GFS delays by 6 hours the advance of the shower troughs on Thursday night and continues it's random precipitation generator. A bit of intuition is needed. We know broadly what the situation will be with pulses of rain and embedded thunderstorms moving north but we'll have to wait another 24 hrs to get a more accurate picture. Be interesting to see the ECM charts later on.
Attached Images
File Type: png nmmuk-1-72-0.png (28.3 KB, 8255 views)

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 15-07-2014 at 18:18.
Kermit.de.frog is online now  
(2) thanks from:
15-07-2014, 19:32   #11
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,611
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
Some of the higher resolution models certainly giving signals that way and some decent rain rates too.




12 pm GFS delays by 6 hours the advance of the shower troughs on Thursday night and continues it's random precipitation generator. A bit of intuition is needed. We know broadly what the situation will be with pulses of rain and embedded thunderstorms moving north but we'll have to wait another 24 hrs to get a more accurate picture. Be interesting to see the ECM charts later on.
yup
Isn't it funny how nature repeats itself.
Some of the most fantastic biscay events in my lifetime followed that same pattern with massive storms with mad lightning importing themselves into Wexford.They usually eventually impact the Arklow area but whilst still potent and bloody good near Dublin they lose some ooumph heading north.
Hence they are worth a chase the hour or so down the M11 if they are Biscay/welsh stuff and position yourself on higher ground near the sea (plenty east of Enniscorthy or just north of courtown harbour)
The night Michael Jackson died (google the date,lightning strike records,charts etc) was a classic example of wexfords fortune though I think it was a welsh import that night.
We were teased listening to the long rumbles and all the forks for a good hour non stop in Arklow that night from the storm which at that point was south of Gorey.
2hrs into that and it came overhead.Thunder shaking the house like mortar bombs and continuous non stop forks.
There are in my opinion no storms quite as potent and long lasting as a biscay or welsh import source.

Regarding what I said earlier on the Irish Sea,I just don't want to see a returning lower RH feed entering the mix.

On a related note,serious drought in the Wexford/South Wicklow area (we got none of the recent rain ye got in Dublin) so we could do with these downpours!!
whitebriar is offline  
15-07-2014, 23:13   #12
Oneiric 3
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by whitebriar View Post
yup

The night Michael Jackson died (google the date,lightning strike records,charts etc) was a classic example of wexfords fortune though I think it was a welsh import that night.
We were teased listening to the long rumbles and all the forks for a good hour non stop in Arklow that night from the storm which at that point was south of Gorey.
2hrs into that and it came overhead.Thunder shaking the house like mortar bombs and continuous non stop forks.
There are in my opinion no storms quite as potent and long lasting as a biscay or welsh import source.
I was in full storm mode that night so got a chance to cache a couple of radar images as the storm/s moved in. I do recall a lot of sferics being picked up that night along southeast coastal regions.


C/O Met.ie

Chart for 00z that night, thundery trough lines slicing up towards SE coast:


C/O UK Met

We got the remains of those showers (minus the thunder) the next morning; they were monsoonal. Both sky and atmosphere a thick, soupy dark grey as the rain poured, yet everyone was out in their teeshirts. Classic Summer weather. If it rained like that 365/24/7, I'd not mind in the least.
Attached Images
File Type: png UKMetAnalysis 00260609.png (96.9 KB, 8050 views)
Oneiric 3 is offline  
15-07-2014, 23:50   #13
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 1,611
Cheers big ears.I'd forgotten the full specifics and how big that storm system/shower was-basically covering all of co wexford as it hit shore.
I think it may have been born around the bristol channel south wales area?
whitebriar is offline  
16-07-2014, 00:10   #14
fleet_admiral
Registered User
 
fleet_admiral's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 3,395
Im going to take a spin down to the Hook on thursday night to (hopefully) see the storm
fleet_admiral is offline  
16-07-2014, 01:16   #15
Elmer Blooker
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 4,519
The talk here of Wexford thunderstorms reminds me of a big one on this night which was the beginning of the big August heat wave in 2003. I was on me holliers down there and it was absolutely glorious, who needs the Mediterranean when we can get weather like that!
Elmer Blooker is offline  
Thanks from:
Thread Closed

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search