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09-06-2014, 03:58   #1
Kermit.de.frog
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Warm and sunny, possibly very warm weather later from 11th to 19th June

Hi folks! Long time since.

It's looking interesting later this week. An area of high pressure moving away northeast from the Azores could potentially give a summer. POTENTIALLY. It's not for sure yet. The models still deviate on detail here but from Wednesday we have a decent go at a very warm settled spell setting in. In terms of synoptics we are looking to avoid retrogression of any feeble high pressure to Greenland. We could well avoid that. This could be similar to last summer but we have to wait a day or two to see what the prognosis is.

I would say things look good right now. But don't be organising the bbq just yet.

Give it 48 hrs.


More later.

DM2.


Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 09-06-2014 at 18:47.
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09-06-2014, 12:32   #2
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So this is the situation for Thursday. High pressure in control and a warm southwesterly breeze helping to lift temperatures up to the mid 20's in parts of the midlands, east and north. A little bit cloudier in the far northwest. Looks a stunning day for the east and south.



Little cloud cover over most of the country



Temperatures responding nicely (you can put an extra 2 or 3 degrees on a lot of these values)



Not that today is not a nice day mind you! Later in the week will be nicer!

More later.
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Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 09-06-2014 at 18:52.
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09-06-2014, 17:40   #3
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I will fix those charts above. They are dynamic links so changing with each run. EDIT: charts fixed!


12pm GFS and UK Met Office model runs show everything more or less on track.


GFS is a decent upgrade in fact on both temperature and potential longevity of the warm and sunny weather.

I think from Wednesday to Sunday looks nailed to me and potentially longer than that. Temperatures could get in to the high twenties at times locally and away from wind ward coasts.

I guess it's time to dust down the bbq from last year.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 09-06-2014 at 18:52.
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09-06-2014, 20:23   #4
redsteveireland
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Hi folks! Long time since.

DM2.

It has been a while alright DM2.
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09-06-2014, 22:44   #5
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It has been a while alright DM2.
Great to see a familiar poster back alright 😊
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10-06-2014, 11:57   #6
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Atm looks like the Hp dominated spell should last about a week.
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10-06-2014, 18:43   #7
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Ok so forecast is pretty much same as. Just an increased chance of some cloud on Friday that might spoil things a teeny weeny little bit. The far west and far north always prone to more cloud and drizzle at times.

Ideally we would like the high pressure centered further east to steer up a continental flow. Looks like it will be anchored just to the west so winds could end up more northeasterly. Still very warm and mostly sunny but the mid twenties might be the max come the end of the weekend and beginning of next week.

Here is the UK Met Office position for Sunday for example





And GFS for same time



Very nice, stable and warm and lots of sunshine.

Both the 12z GFS and UKMO are equally good. I'd take either of them.

So getting warmer and sunnier is the theme for the end of the week from tomorrow, weekend and in to next week.
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Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 10-06-2014 at 18:57.
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10-06-2014, 23:04   #8
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Folks what's going on with the UKMO on Meteociel? They seem to be rolling out a run which is several days out of date, for example showing "Lundi 9th" as 96h away...?
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11-06-2014, 12:23   #9
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Hi, It hasn't been updating on some sites to 72 hrs. But it should have 96 hrs as the 15th today.

Folks, overall an upgrade this morning. Bit disappointing it's got a bit dull so far today but that breaks and sunshine appears later this afternoon.

The UKMO and 6z GFS are super this morning right through to at least the middle of next week. Warmer with each passing day.

As for tomorrow expect good sunshine over most of the country but cloud near those north and west coasts. Temperatures in the sunshine reaching 22c locally away from windward coasts. 13 - 16c under cloud.
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12-06-2014, 02:05   #10
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A nice day ahead for the east and south in particular. Temperatures up to 23c locally inland. Very pleasant with increasing sunshine.

Not so good in the west and north initially and maybe the southwest as well but cloud should really evaporate here in to the afternoon. Cooler here for the first half of the day as a result. A nice day all round though.

Aside from more cloud on Saturday the forecast is the same. Warmer and sunnier more widespread as we go on.

Next week could become hot locally. Temperatures could reach high twenties and over 30c cannot be ruled out.


P.S a decent view of Saturn atm if you have clear skies. It's really bright like a star on steroids but of course it's not a star. It's quite near the moon. You can't miss it. Highly recommend a gawk.

Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; 12-06-2014 at 05:34.
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12-06-2014, 10:36   #11
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Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
A nice day ahead for the east and south in particular. Temperatures up to 23c locally inland. Very pleasant with increasing sunshine.

Not so good in the west and north initially and maybe the southwest as well but cloud should really evaporate here in to the afternoon. Cooler here for the first half of the day as a result. A nice day all round though.

Aside from more cloud on Saturday the forecast is the same. Warmer and sunnier more widespread as we go on.

Next week could become hot locally. Temperatures could reach high twenties and over 30c cannot be ruled out.


P.S a decent view of Saturn atm if you have clear skies. It's really bright like a star on steroids but of course it's not a star. It's quite near the moon. You can't miss it. Highly recommend a gawk.
Well Kermit, can we bottle your posts of positivity I know they are cheering me up this week...BBQ being taken down from the attic tonight
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12-06-2014, 13:15   #12
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Glorious beer garden weather for us dad's this sunday
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12-06-2014, 13:21   #13
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Flying home from 2 weeks in Portugal today. This is music to my ears
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12-06-2014, 13:22   #14
 
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Really warm/hot in London for the past week, mid 20's every day, hopefully you get a share of it over there over the coming week. It doesn't look like a very strong high but promising for the rest of the summer as high pressure tends to reestablish itself in the same areas over the course of the season
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12-06-2014, 14:45   #15
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very pleasant tomorrow for the midlands south and east,the more typical muck out west. Heres tomorrows maximums.
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