Warm and sunny, possibly very warm weather later from 11th to 19th June

Kermit.de.frog

Hi folks! Long time since.

It's looking interesting later this week. An area of high pressure moving away northeast from the Azores could potentially give a summer. POTENTIALLY. It's not for sure yet. The models still deviate on detail here but from Wednesday we have a decent go at a very warm settled spell setting in. In terms of synoptics we are looking to avoid retrogression of any feeble high pressure to Greenland. We could well avoid that. This could be similar to last summer but we have to wait a day or two to see what the prognosis is.

I would say things look good right now. But don't be organising the bbq just yet.;)

Give it 48 hrs. :cool:


More later.

DM2.

Kermit.de.frog

So this is the situation for Thursday. High pressure in control and a warm southwesterly breeze helping to lift temperatures up to the mid 20's in parts of the midlands, east and north. A little bit cloudier in the far northwest. Looks a stunning day for the east and south.



Little cloud cover over most of the country



Temperatures responding nicely (you can put an extra 2 or 3 degrees on a lot of these values)



Not that today is not a nice day mind you! Later in the week will be nicer!

More later.

Kermit.de.frog

I will fix those charts above. They are dynamic links so changing with each run. EDIT: charts fixed!


12pm GFS and UK Met Office model runs show everything more or less on track.:cool:


GFS is a decent upgrade in fact on both temperature and potential longevity of the warm and sunny weather.

I think from Wednesday to Sunday looks nailed to me and potentially longer than that. Temperatures could get in to the high twenties at times locally and away from wind ward coasts.

I guess it's time to dust down the bbq from last year.

redsteveireland

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Hi folks! Long time since.

DM2.

It has been a while alright DM2.

kittyn

redsteveireland wrote: »

It has been a while alright DM2.

Great to see a familiar poster back alright 😊

Billcarson

Atm looks like the Hp dominated spell should last about a week.

Kermit.de.frog

Ok so forecast is pretty much same as. Just an increased chance of some cloud on Friday that might spoil things a teeny weeny little bit. The far west and far north always prone to more cloud and drizzle at times.

Ideally we would like the high pressure centered further east to steer up a continental flow. Looks like it will be anchored just to the west so winds could end up more northeasterly. Still very warm and mostly sunny but the mid twenties might be the max come the end of the weekend and beginning of next week.

Here is the UK Met Office position for Sunday for example





And GFS for same time



Very nice, stable and warm and lots of sunshine.

Both the 12z GFS and UKMO are equally good. I'd take either of them.

So getting warmer and sunnier is the theme for the end of the week from tomorrow, weekend and in to next week.

hatrickpatrick

Folks what's going on with the UKMO on Meteociel? They seem to be rolling out a run which is several days out of date, for example showing "Lundi 9th" as 96h away...?

Kermit.de.frog

Hi, It hasn't been updating on some sites to 72 hrs. But it should have 96 hrs as the 15th today.

Folks, overall an upgrade this morning. Bit disappointing it's got a bit dull so far today but that breaks and sunshine appears later this afternoon.

The UKMO and 6z GFS are super this morning right through to at least the middle of next week. Warmer with each passing day.

As for tomorrow expect good sunshine over most of the country but cloud near those north and west coasts. Temperatures in the sunshine reaching 22c locally away from windward coasts. 13 - 16c under cloud.

Kermit.de.frog

A nice day ahead for the east and south in particular. Temperatures up to 23c locally inland. Very pleasant with increasing sunshine.

Not so good in the west and north initially and maybe the southwest as well but cloud should really evaporate here in to the afternoon. Cooler here for the first half of the day as a result. A nice day all round though.

Aside from more cloud on Saturday the forecast is the same. Warmer and sunnier more widespread as we go on.

Next week could become hot locally. Temperatures could reach high twenties and over 30c cannot be ruled out.


P.S a decent view of Saturn atm if you have clear skies. It's really bright like a star on steroids but of course it's not a star. It's quite near the moon. You can't miss it. Highly recommend a gawk.

JM Skipton

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A nice day ahead for the east and south in particular. Temperatures up to 23c locally inland. Very pleasant with increasing sunshine.

Not so good in the west and north initially and maybe the southwest as well but cloud should really evaporate here in to the afternoon. Cooler here for the first half of the day as a result. A nice day all round though.

Aside from more cloud on Saturday the forecast is the same. Warmer and sunnier more widespread as we go on.

Next week could become hot locally. Temperatures could reach high twenties and over 30c cannot be ruled out.


P.S a decent view of Saturn atm if you have clear skies. It's really bright like a star on steroids but of course it's not a star. It's quite near the moon. You can't miss it. Highly recommend a gawk.

Well Kermit, can we bottle your posts of positivity I know they are cheering me up this week...BBQ being taken down from the attic tonight:D

fleet_admiral

Glorious beer garden weather for us dad's this sunday:)

km79

Flying home from 2 weeks in Portugal today. This is music to my ears

Harps

Really warm/hot in London for the past week, mid 20's every day, hopefully you get a share of it over there over the coming week. It doesn't look like a very strong high but promising for the rest of the summer as high pressure tends to reestablish itself in the same areas over the course of the season

squarecircles

very pleasant tomorrow for the midlands south and east,the more typical muck out west. Heres tomorrows maximums.

squarecircles

temperatures on saturdayand sunday look disappointing countrywide while early next week the warmth begins to build in the west:D.

Kermit.de.frog

I think you are probably quoting minimums there and not maximums. That is far too pessimistic. Temperatures should be quite a bit north of that on Saturday really. Where sunshine breaks through temperatures in to the low twenties is likely. But we'll see.

ninebeanrows

There will be a bit of cloud about Saturday and still some on Sunday but some good long sunny spells and temperatures will range from 17-22c.

Very pleasant.

OldRio

Still waiting. Raining as I type.

whitebriar

OldRio wrote: »

Still waiting. Raining as I type.

Well its already 20.1c on my Davis here near Arklow at 9am and very sunny

OldRio

whitebriar wrote: »

Well its already 20.1c on my Davis here near Arklow at 9am and very sunny

Reads whitebriars post. Walks outside. Gets wet. Kicks cat.

Kermit.de.frog

Patience.

Humid, warm and overcast here after a sunny start. Just have to get rid of this embedded trough tomorrow and we are away. I'd expect the sun to re emerge later on though particularly east and south.

mickger844posts

Still a few breaks in the cloud here in Waterford City. Feeling rather warm. Current temp 20.0c

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Harps

Too hot over here these past few days, had a low of 18C last night and expecting up to 27C today. With humidity and no breeze it's feeling oppressively hot, fine for lying about but not so fun for work and commuting.

Looks like a reversal of fortunes in the coming week though with Ireland seeing the better of any heat, the west and north missing out until after the weekend, eastern areas low 20's but next week should see mid 20's quite widely if everything goes to plan

whitebriar

whitebriar wrote: »

Well its already 20.1c on my Davis here near Arklow at 9am and very sunny

20.4c down here now,peaked at 20.9

still a wee bit of sun peaking through but mostly cloudy now.Feeling oppressive as the approaching front means no sea breeze and currently not a breath of wind here at all.

whitebriar

whitebriar wrote: »

20.4c down here now,peaked at 20.9

still a wee bit of sun peaking through but mostly cloudy now.Feeling oppressive as the approaching front means no sea breeze and currently not a breath of wind here at all.

Talking to myself but 21.7c todays peak so far

Beautiful day \0/

Kermit.de.frog

The sun. It is breaking through. Forget your birds and your goats and Donegal postmen, I have just seen a large group of undesirables boarding the bus to Portmarnock. This is a good sign

Calibos

Pleasant enough in Bray atm. Breaks in cloud, that SE clear quadrant moving in our direction.

[Edit] I deleted the infracted off topic part of my post

dak

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The sun. It is breaking through. Forget your birds and your goats and Donegal postmen, I have just seen a large group of undesirables boarding the bus to Portmarnock. This is a good sign

Not if you live in Portmarnock !

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The sun. It is breaking through. Forget your birds and your goats and Donegal postmen, I have just seen a large group of undesirables boarding the bus to Portmarnock. This is a good sign

The beach will be a no-go zone next week for sure

mickger844posts

Our Max temp here in Waterford City was a very respectable 22.9c. The sun really broke through the clouds in the afternoon with some long clear spells. Fantastic summers day

www.waterfordcityweather.com

hatrickpatrick

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The sun. It is breaking through. Forget your birds and your goats and Donegal postmen, I have just seen a large group of undesirables boarding the bus to Portmarnock. This is a good sign

Hide yo kids, hide yo wife
This is hands down the best post I've ever seen in the Weather forum

Clonmel1000

For those of us who work Mon-Friday this weekend looks like being a bit disappointing. Its dry, its 19 degrees its cloudy......

Lumi

A beautiful day in Galway city.
Max of 19.9C & some good breaks in the cloud from late afternoon

alentejo

This has all the markings of a Monday to Friday heatwave!

Oscar Bravo

16 degrees in several locations on the 0000 reports....Summer has arrived.....

OldRio

Well. Still waiting. Cloudy conditions. Again

Tarzana

Today, in Dublin, as soon as the sun broke through the clouds, it got felt very warm indeed. Lovely. :cool:

RED L4 0TH

Image at 1441. Alot of cloud up the middle of the country.

Reiketsu

This is the first day I have actually seen the sun since this good weather arrived :pac:

vickers209

Fairly brisk cool breeze comming in off irish sea

delw

Warm but cloudy,not much sign of it lifting

noah45

Dull all day in Athlone. Warm but no sun at all.

John.Icy

Any experts reckon the cloud will lift?

Getting a sinking feeling that where it's sunny now will have a good week and those who can't get rid of the cloud will suffer all week.

It's unreal how unlucky Ireland is with high pressure, probably due to being so close to the sea. No where get's as much cloud under a high than Ireland!

whitebriar

Beautiful Sunny day all day in Arklow and around 19c.Breezy though but thats died down now.

Mars Bar

Dull and cool all day here in Tuam and also in Claremorris. I want heat and blue skies godamnit!

oak5548

Warm but cloudy day here inland, but the sun after coming out in the past two hours and making for a lovely evening.

Question: Why is it hotter at around 7-8pm even though its commonly said that mid-day is the hottest time.
I've been monitoring the temps and around midday was 16 degrees or so and now its 18 degrees. Seems to be like this for the past week. Suddenly gets hotter once the sun starts setting.

OneEightSeven

oak5548 wrote: »

Warm but cloudy day here inland, but the sun after coming out in the past two hours and making for a lovely evening.

Question: Why is it hotter at around 7-8pm even though its commonly said that mid-day is the hottest time.
I've been monitoring the temps and around midday was 16 degrees or so and now its 18 degrees. Seems to be like this for the past week. Suddenly gets hotter once the sun starts setting.

Mid-day or shortly afterwards for the equatorial regions. Late afternoon for Ireland.

It's because the Sun is at it's strongest at around 2 p.m. here, it also takes a while for the land and sea to heat up: http://www.uvawareness.com/uv-index/uv-index.php?location=dublin

kingshankly

Warm and sunny since 2 pm in the north east beautiful day

Oscar Bravo

After a cloud day in Castlebar, its turned into fine clear end to the day....roll on tomorrow!

mickger844posts

Intervals of sun and cloud today but we managed to max at 21.3c and record over 6 hours of sunshine. It was also our 4th 20c plus day in a row. Pleasant summer spell so far but nothing outstanding yet.

www.waterfordcityweather.com