Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact [email protected]

Flood risk in the South and East, very heavy rain and strong winds, Tues - Fri

  • 21-04-2012 8:02pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    Hi all,

    No harm in building up to a possible flooding event for parts of the country from late Tuesday to Friday morning. An area of low pressure looks like approaching the country from the southwest and deepening rapidly as it approaches Ireland throwing up it's associated frontal systems over the country. Tuesday night the action gets underway in the south and note the tightening pressure gradient that means strong southeasterly winds.

    Firstly let's look at rainfall

    Wednesday 6am

    201520.png

    Wednesday 12pm

    201521.png

    The timing there is unfortunate from a disruption point of view. Could be a few problems Wednesday evening for the journey home.

    Wednesday 6pm

    201524.png

    Wednesday night

    201527.png

    Thursday now and, well, it does not look great does it? Very heavy rain continuing.

    201529.png



    That is very nasty looking. Very uncomfortable if you will be out and about going to or from work or just on a ramble or whatever. I'd imagine people are going to really feel that strong easterly wind.

    But that's not the end because the rain goes on well into Friday often heavy. The whole country is at risk of flooding with the South and East really in the firing line. I'd expect disruption from this and i'd be interested in the thoughts of other resident weather nuts on the prospects. We're looking at at least 2 inches of rain here in some parts and possibly more on current projections.

    I can only post 5 attachments on this post so back in a tick with the next post.:)


«13456710

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Heard it on some forecast yesterday. Better clean and service my rain collector tomorrow then.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Tonight's ECM has over 60mm falling along parts of the east coast between Wednesday and Friday next.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Thursday evening

    201536.png



    Synoptic chart for Wednesday afternoon (ECM)

    201538.gif


    We are still a few days out so things could still change but broadly speaking most models are in good agreement. The potential strength of the winds is where most of the uncertainty is I think.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    C**K!!- Looking bad for Punchestown on Thursday:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    That looks like alot of rain,just as well water/river levels are low


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Might help with the eastern half of the countries soil water deficit. I'm sure the resevoirs need a good top up before the Summer anyway. Bring it on!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Yes this is an interesting one and needs to be watched. Some drought areas could see water run off the surface in stead of soak for a time.

    Flooding looks to be main threat with driving rain in strong winds.

    Current Met Eireann forecast,
    On Tuesday night, however, a spell of very heavy and persistent rain will extend in to southern areas, bringing a risk of flooding.
    Wednesday will see that rain extend northwards over the country, although it will stay relatively dry in Ulster. Flooding is likely, especially in the east and south with up to 25 mm of rainfall likely to fall in the 24 hour period.


    Now even though water table is low, the continuous CURRENTLY forecast rain over the few days could indeed drive it up fairly quickly and cause problems.
    Now that's a long way off and downgrades are as we all know all too common.
    So yes at the moment the risk is there for disruption.

    I would be inclined to let the horse run for a bit and see what presents in a more reliable time frame as ECM could be overdoing this and track could change widely between now and then but a very valid threat all the same.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Some disagreement this morning between ECM and GFS - the former saying yes while the latter moves things south of Ireland:confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,257 ✭✭✭Tindie


    Yeah, at last some good windy weather lol


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Some disagreement this morning between ECM and GFS - the former saying yes while the latter moves things south of Ireland:confused:
    Country file and just now the latest BBC forecast has all the rain missing us with just a dry day Wednesday albeit with a stiff northeast breeze...


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    That's from this mornings UKMO. There is a split in the models. The ECM ensembles though are solid that it won't pass to the South and has support from the other Euro models too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭Jim_Kiy


    Netweather are going for a rather dry week in Dublin as well..much prefer the v heavy rain scenorio obviously.
    Just have to wait and see where it heads for I guess..
    Netweather also have forecasts for 'Cork Hole ..is that a :) or a place? that forecast shows some heavy rain on Thursday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,668 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    best to get all this crappy weather now rather than having these charts all the way through July and August.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Tuesdays rain will run off but the soaking ability of the ground will improve by the day. Signs of near AVERAGE seasonal warmth from Sat/Sun onwards but not enough to deserve a thread.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM 12z has the rainfall a bit further South and not as extensive as before.The 12z GFS puts it further north than previous runs but it still largely misses us. A few of the higher res euro models have it much more extensive. A good deal of uncertainty about this yet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,645 ✭✭✭k.p.h


    WEB_radar2_201204222045.png

    I look at the rainfall radar pretty much everyday and I can't remember ever seeing such a solid area of rainfall as the one that is coming in over Kerry as we speak. Is that a common sight on the radar ?


    http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    The rain in the SW is fairly light,probably Drizzle in some parts.Nice circle of Showers still active!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    darkman2 wrote: »
    ECM 12z has the rainfall a bit further South and not as extensive as before.The 12z GFS puts it further north than previous runs but it still largely misses us. A few of the higher res euro models have it much more extensive. A good deal of uncertainty about this yet.
    Siobhan was still going full belt on the 00z on the Rte forecast... full on wind and rain with the low on top of us-do they pre record the Sunday one earlier in the day or what ? Looks like it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 546 ✭✭✭elduggo


    blackius wrote: »
    Siobhan was still going full belt on the 00z on the Rte forecast... full on wind and rain with the low on top of us-do they pre record the Sunday one earlier in the day or what ? Looks like it.

    I'm pretty sure the weather reports are all live (goes some way to explaining the appalling spelling from time to time).

    I saw it after the 6 and 9 news yesterday and the 'outlook' report had changed in that 3 hours. After the 6 news they were predicting a dry friday, saturday and sunday. By 9pm this had changed to 'there is some uncertainty as to what is in store for next weekend'.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Met eireann on the radio this morning are still forecasting a monsoon Wednesday but are using the words'
    looks like'


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The GFS is more toward the flood risk scenario today especially in the East. The fronts are thrown further north than on previous runs. I think Met Eireann are spot on myself to add a little sprinkle of caution.


    201775.png

    201776.png



    ECM also upgrade longevity of persistent rain in the East by a good 12hrs as against the previous run.


    Incidentally my garden is actually flooded today on the grass so either alot of runoff with little soakage or the water table is not quite as low as thought.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    By far the worst case scenario in terms of flooding is the UKMO this morning. Very nasty in the east if this comes off

    201778.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    Just seen one of the lads selling the Evening Herald at the traffic lights with a head line on his jacket saying "Monster rain to hit city"
    It's not on their site yet but media must be jumping on the bandwagon


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I do wonder sometimes are people in the media lurking around here. Say hello if you are:D:pac:


    I highly doubt there will be so called "monster rain" (who came up with that term anyway?) in any case. Heavy persistent rain is almost nailed on. And there will be spot flooding here and there. Unlikely to be anything dramatic as far as current projections are concerned. I mean we have seen worse forecast.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    darkman2 wrote: »
    I do wonder sometimes are people in the media lurking around here. Say hello if you are:D

    They have in the past, especially since Hurricane Can't remember it's name from last autumn ~ that was never going to be a hurricane but was billed as one that was going to smash into us in the morning while it was still 3.000 miles away off Florida.

    And I can confirm, our local area press, not only watch but have become weather addicts too. :) because of this forum.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    I know that some of the INSURANCE companies do follow this forum .. as I have heard the name "M.T. Cranium" being mentioned by them.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Well the next model runs will be out shortly. That should give you more solid projections at this stage. As it happens I once again won't be here for the next few days due to other commitments. Always seems to happen when something interesting is about to occur:rolleyes:

    Anyway hopefully nothing too dramatic or disruptive. Enjoy the build up folks! CIAO. :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    MET Eireann issued a rain advisory at 11:14 23 April 2012

    This has been assessed by our Emergency Management team and following discussions with MET Eireann Forecast Division the latest forecasts for Dublin is for 12-15mm of rainfall over the period midnight Tuesday 24/04/2012 to 12 noon Thursday 26/04/2012. Other international forecasts are suggesting 15-20mm in this period.

    Tides on Wednesday and Thursday should reach levels of 1.6m, 1.5m, 1.3m and 1.0m respectively, which are well below monitoring level of 2.3m. 30-60km/hr East South East, East North East, North East and North North East winds are also forecast.The risk of Pluvial flooding from thunderstorm activity is possible but it is not possible to predict in advance the time, location or severity of any such thunderstorm activity.

    Areas at potential risk are: Areas previously affected by flooding, basements and local low lying areas. For useful tips on what do do in the event of a flood, please see the OPW website www.flooding.ie

    FloodAlert.jpg

    http://www.dublincity.ie/Pages/Welcome/MainPage.htm#Tab0


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    What a horrid looking day :(

    Driving rain and showers.

    Winds gusting to 60MPH along the coast.

    Temperatures around 7c

    Bleurghhhh

    Rtavn481.png


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    398839_10150838745966718_1297415677_n.jpg



    ANyone have a chart from October 24th handy to compare?


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement