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21-04-2012, 21:02   #1
darkman2
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Flood risk in the South and East, very heavy rain and strong winds, Tues - Fri

Hi all,

No harm in building up to a possible flooding event for parts of the country from late Tuesday to Friday morning. An area of low pressure looks like approaching the country from the southwest and deepening rapidly as it approaches Ireland throwing up it's associated frontal systems over the country. Tuesday night the action gets underway in the south and note the tightening pressure gradient that means strong southeasterly winds.

Firstly let's look at rainfall

Wednesday 6am



Wednesday 12pm



The timing there is unfortunate from a disruption point of view. Could be a few problems Wednesday evening for the journey home.

Wednesday 6pm



Wednesday night



Thursday now and, well, it does not look great does it? Very heavy rain continuing.





That is very nasty looking. Very uncomfortable if you will be out and about going to or from work or just on a ramble or whatever. I'd imagine people are going to really feel that strong easterly wind.

But that's not the end because the rain goes on well into Friday often heavy. The whole country is at risk of flooding with the South and East really in the firing line. I'd expect disruption from this and i'd be interested in the thoughts of other resident weather nuts on the prospects. We're looking at at least 2 inches of rain here in some parts and possibly more on current projections.

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Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 24-04-2012 at 18:21.
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21-04-2012, 21:12   #2
 
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Heard it on some forecast yesterday. Better clean and service my rain collector tomorrow then.
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21-04-2012, 21:15   #3
 
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Tonight's ECM has over 60mm falling along parts of the east coast between Wednesday and Friday next.
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21-04-2012, 21:26   #4
darkman2
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Thursday evening





Synoptic chart for Wednesday afternoon (ECM)




We are still a few days out so things could still change but broadly speaking most models are in good agreement. The potential strength of the winds is where most of the uncertainty is I think.
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Last edited by darkman2; 21-04-2012 at 21:28.
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21-04-2012, 21:50   #5
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C**K!!- Looking bad for Punchestown on Thursday
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21-04-2012, 22:42   #6
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That looks like alot of rain,just as well water/river levels are low
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21-04-2012, 23:31   #7
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Might help with the eastern half of the countries soil water deficit. I'm sure the resevoirs need a good top up before the Summer anyway. Bring it on!!
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21-04-2012, 23:34   #8
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Yes this is an interesting one and needs to be watched. Some drought areas could see water run off the surface in stead of soak for a time.

Flooding looks to be main threat with driving rain in strong winds.

Current Met Eireann forecast,
On Tuesday night, however, a spell of very heavy and persistent rain will extend in to southern areas, bringing a risk of flooding.
Wednesday will see that rain extend northwards over the country, although it will stay relatively dry in Ulster. Flooding is likely, especially in the east and south with up to 25 mm of rainfall likely to fall in the 24 hour period.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now even though water table is low, the continuous CURRENTLY forecast rain over the few days could indeed drive it up fairly quickly and cause problems.
Now that's a long way off and downgrades are as we all know all too common.
So yes at the moment the risk is there for disruption.

I would be inclined to let the horse run for a bit and see what presents in a more reliable time frame as ECM could be overdoing this and track could change widely between now and then but a very valid threat all the same.
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22-04-2012, 09:34   #9
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Some disagreement this morning between ECM and GFS - the former saying yes while the latter moves things south of Ireland
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22-04-2012, 10:09   #10
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Yeah, at last some good windy weather lol
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22-04-2012, 16:02   #11
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Birdnuts View Post
Some disagreement this morning between ECM and GFS - the former saying yes while the latter moves things south of Ireland
Country file and just now the latest BBC forecast has all the rain missing us with just a dry day Wednesday albeit with a stiff northeast breeze...
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22-04-2012, 16:23   #12
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That's from this mornings UKMO. There is a split in the models. The ECM ensembles though are solid that it won't pass to the South and has support from the other Euro models too.

Last edited by darkman2; 22-04-2012 at 16:31.
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22-04-2012, 17:08   #13
 
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Netweather are going for a rather dry week in Dublin as well..much prefer the v heavy rain scenorio obviously.
Just have to wait and see where it heads for I guess..
Netweather also have forecasts for 'Cork Hole ..is that a or a place? that forecast shows some heavy rain on Thursday.
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22-04-2012, 18:19   #14
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best to get all this crappy weather now rather than having these charts all the way through July and August.
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22-04-2012, 20:47   #15
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Tuesdays rain will run off but the soaking ability of the ground will improve by the day. Signs of near AVERAGE seasonal warmth from Sat/Sun onwards but not enough to deserve a thread.
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