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Early Summer: Noticeably warmer from Saturday (24th March)

  • 20-03-2012 9:20pm
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    Hi all, some impressively nice, stable and increasingly sunny and warm weather looks on the cards from Saturday really. We could be looking at 18 or 19c (later maybe even higher) in some places away from windward coasts. Very pleasant everywhere. Still a little cool at night though that's no bad thing either. There may be some fog here or there. But with the flow increasingly continental with less moisture clouds may well become rare over the next week or too. Alot of certainty across the models out into FI. This regime will be with us for a while by the looks of things.


    I can post this chart dynamically because, well it won't change much at all. Blocking anticyclone.



    Recm1441.gif

    Recm1442.gif

    Very stable. No sign of a breakdown within any kind of sensible timeframe so enjoy!:D


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Tis looking nice alright. Some charts like those in the summer would be very welcomed.


    12032512_2012.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Rainfall seems to have been quite low in the East this year.

    Will this mean they will be in drought conditions?

    No really large rainfall in the rest of March and the start of April seems ok too.

    It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

    I am hopeful this wont happen this year.

    Why not? Well just a gut feeling.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Yes that could become a bit of an issue in the East of Ireland but it could be a real issue for Southern England who are really struggling with their water levels at this stage. A hose ban is already imminent there. It's only March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,124 ✭✭✭✭km79


    It's beginning to feel very familiar. Nice fee weeks around April then ....... Misery till same time next year


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    pauldry wrote: »

    It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.
    Been like that for the last 6 years. In November 2009 we had floods nationwide, especially the west. Once that stopped c 25 Nov 2009 it basically didn't rain again in the west until we got a solid 1 week soak starting on Palm Sunday ...around the 28th of March. 4 months of it.

    Long unseasonal dry spells are not that unusual in recent years I think 2007 was the same.

    April, is the driest month in Ireland and Darkman kindly found us April starting in March. :)

    I'll take that AND a hot summer.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    km79 wrote: »
    It's beginning to feel very familiar. Nice fee weeks around April then ....... Misery till same time next year

    ECMWF forecast for early next week:

    197064.gif


    Compare it to a fax analysis chart for this time last year (attached on bottom of this post as too big to put up. Scarily similar is right. :o


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Been like that for the last 6 years. In November 2009 we had floods nationwide, especially the west.

    met.ie radar image from 12th Nov 09, a week before the big rains arrived, I remember even then radar images like this were happening on an almost daily basis from the end of October that year leading up to the main event.

    197085.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Rain fall levels are well down for Febuary - about 40% of normal for much of the country, January was lower than the mean, March so far is well down - about 40% of normal.

    Looking at November 2011 (data for December is not on site as PDF yet) Percentage of normal values ranged from 69% at Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford to 203% at
    Valentia Observatory, where its daily fall of 57 mm on the 28th,
    was its highest November daily fall reported since 1984.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    That soil moisture deficit ( measure in MMs not %) . It will get worse not that I am worried as I am west of that line. You can have low (isH) rainfall without a deficit...ie it rains steadily and regularly but not overly.

    smd_md_dif.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    pauldry wrote: »
    It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

    I am hopeful this wont happen this year.

    Why not? Well just a gut feeling.

    Watch developments over Greenland closely over the next few weeks - if pressure starts rising there and beds in by May, then like last year our goose will be cooked!!:(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    oh goody, an early summer and than when the actual summer comes, there will be sweet feck all:(


    it feels like this happens every year


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    The weather gods are an awful bunch of teases.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Its coming, just not until Saturday (possibly).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,209 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    mike65 wrote: »
    Its coming, just not until Saturday (possibly).

    what the snow ;):D


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Hazy sunshine and a pleasant 14 here in Athlone


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think this year is different than the others.

    No volcanoes (yet)

    I think it will stay milder than normal for most months and Summer will be fine.

    Stop worrying I am psycic (even if I dont know how to spell it) :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Temperatures in the high teens - upto 19C maybe 20C at the weekend, time for the sunscreen...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Nice misty mild night in Dublin City.

    Might be time to lit up the pot-belly-stove, couple of potatoes in foil thrown in for good measure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Min wrote: »
    Temperatures in the high teens - upto 19C maybe 20C at the weekend, time for the sunscreen...
    Not in Dublin with sea temperatures at their lowest at this time of year, east coastal areas may be plagued by sea fog with temps as low as 10 or 11c.
    Because Dublin will more than likely miss out on this early summer heatwave I think this thread should be locked. :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tomorrow looks a bit dodgy to me for sun. There is a lot of cloud in Atlantic making its way to Ireland.

    Id say that West will be cloudy and East cold and in between OK with some sun. :mad: Was looking forward to wall to wall sun tomorrow too.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    20 degrees on Sunday anyone?

    120325152306.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,322 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Hope so! Get to 20 right around 12:30, just before I tee off ;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Im playing golf tomorrow in Royal Tara , hoping for the good weather too !


    What this that I have been hearing about a change to a colder pattern around the beginning of April , I hope not .


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,580 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Harps wrote: »
    20 degrees on Sunday anyone?

    120325152306.gif

    Is March the new May:confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Enjoy it folks ECM hinting at a change the last few days come April things could get very chilly as the polar vortex take a trip to scandi

    ECM0-240.GIF?23-0

    ECM1-216.GIF?23-0


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    OOOOOh was that 1917 when a great Blizzard came in early April????


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Nice blue skies all morning in Cork. Unfortunately I'm stuck in doors finishing my dissertation until Thursday, typical!
    Currently 15.2C here in Cork. Met Eireann showing a few places already up to 17C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭dfbemt


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Yes that could become a bit of an issue in the East of Ireland but it could be a real issue for Southern England who are really struggling with their water levels at this stage. A hose ban is already imminent there. It's only March.

    BBC's Countryfile about 2-3 weeks ago said that there was a ban already in place in some counties. Spoke with a farmer in Lincolnshire, who looked like he was living in a dustbowl. Had real concerns that he would not be able to sow spuds because of the low soil moisture levels.

    Meanwhile on the northside of Dublin it is a lovely 16°C. The kitchen windows are open, there is barely a breeze and it is great to be out in the garden.

    Big concerns though re forest / gorse fires at this time and this weather does not help.


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,322 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Warm in athlone, but there is a decent breeze blowing.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Gusty down here, bright but the sun is rather in and out. Not warm.


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