Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
20-03-2012, 21:20   #1
darkman2
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,480
Early Summer: Noticeably warmer from Saturday (24th March)

Hi all, some impressively nice, stable and increasingly sunny and warm weather looks on the cards from Saturday really. We could be looking at 18 or 19c (later maybe even higher) in some places away from windward coasts. Very pleasant everywhere. Still a little cool at night though that's no bad thing either. There may be some fog here or there. But with the flow increasingly continental with less moisture clouds may well become rare over the next week or too. Alot of certainty across the models out into FI. This regime will be with us for a while by the looks of things.


I can post this chart dynamically because, well it won't change much at all. Blocking anticyclone.







Very stable. No sign of a breakdown within any kind of sensible timeframe so enjoy!

Last edited by darkman2; 20-03-2012 at 21:26.
darkman2 is offline  
Advertisement
20-03-2012, 21:37   #2
Nabber
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,293
Tis looking nice alright. Some charts like those in the summer would be very welcomed.


Nabber is offline  
Thanks from:
20-03-2012, 22:11   #3
pauldry
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,606
Rainfall seems to have been quite low in the East this year.

Will this mean they will be in drought conditions?

No really large rainfall in the rest of March and the start of April seems ok too.

It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

I am hopeful this wont happen this year.

Why not? Well just a gut feeling.
pauldry is offline  
20-03-2012, 22:18   #4
darkman2
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,480
Yes that could become a bit of an issue in the East of Ireland but it could be a real issue for Southern England who are really struggling with their water levels at this stage. A hose ban is already imminent there. It's only March.
darkman2 is offline  
20-03-2012, 22:23   #5
km79
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 37,505
It's beginning to feel very familiar. Nice fee weeks around April then ....... Misery till same time next year
km79 is offline  
Thanks from:
Advertisement
20-03-2012, 22:45   #6
Sponge Bob
Banned
 
Sponge Bob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 24,822
Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post

It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.
Been like that for the last 6 years. In November 2009 we had floods nationwide, especially the west. Once that stopped c 25 Nov 2009 it basically didn't rain again in the west until we got a solid 1 week soak starting on Palm Sunday ...around the 28th of March. 4 months of it.

Long unseasonal dry spells are not that unusual in recent years I think 2007 was the same.

April, is the driest month in Ireland and Darkman kindly found us April starting in March.

I'll take that AND a hot summer.
Sponge Bob is offline  
Thanks from:
20-03-2012, 22:50   #7
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by km79 View Post
It's beginning to feel very familiar. Nice fee weeks around April then ....... Misery till same time next year
ECMWF forecast for early next week:




Compare it to a fax analysis chart for this time last year (attached on bottom of this post as too big to put up. Scarily similar is right.
Attached Images
File Type: gif Recm1681.gif (59.9 KB, 2037 views)
File Type: png fax analysis 24th March 2011.png (151.6 KB, 66 views)
Deep Easterly is offline  
(2) thanks from:
20-03-2012, 23:25   #8
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sponge Bob View Post
Been like that for the last 6 years. In November 2009 we had floods nationwide, especially the west.
met.ie radar image from 12th Nov 09, a week before the big rains arrived, I remember even then radar images like this were happening on an almost daily basis from the end of October that year leading up to the main event.

Attached Images
File Type: png 12th Nov 2009 1045.png (53.1 KB, 1989 views)
Deep Easterly is offline  
Thanks from:
20-03-2012, 23:45   #9
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 87,892
Rain fall levels are well down for Febuary - about 40% of normal for much of the country, January was lower than the mean, March so far is well down - about 40% of normal.

Looking at November 2011 (data for December is not on site as PDF yet) Percentage of normal values ranged from 69% at Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford to 203% at
Valentia Observatory, where its daily fall of 57 mm on the 28th,
was its highest November daily fall reported since 1984.
mike65 is offline  
Advertisement
21-03-2012, 00:37   #10
Sponge Bob
Banned
 
Sponge Bob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 24,822
That soil moisture deficit ( measure in MMs not %) . It will get worse not that I am worried as I am west of that line. You can have low (isH) rainfall without a deficit...ie it rains steadily and regularly but not overly.

Sponge Bob is offline  
21-03-2012, 01:08   #11
Birdnuts
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 6,637
Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

I am hopeful this wont happen this year.

Why not? Well just a gut feeling.
Watch developments over Greenland closely over the next few weeks - if pressure starts rising there and beds in by May, then like last year our goose will be cooked!!
Birdnuts is offline  
21-03-2012, 09:47   #12
sunbabe08
Registered User
 
sunbabe08's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,894
oh goody, an early summer and than when the actual summer comes, there will be sweet feck all


it feels like this happens every year
sunbabe08 is offline  
21-03-2012, 16:16   #13
dsmythy
Registered User
 
dsmythy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 8,706
The weather gods are an awful bunch of teases.
dsmythy is offline  
21-03-2012, 23:43   #14
 
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 87,892
Its coming, just not until Saturday (possibly).
mike65 is offline  
22-03-2012, 08:28   #15
ednwireland
Moderator
 
ednwireland's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 10,690
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike65 View Post
Its coming, just not until Saturday (possibly).
what the snow
ednwireland is online now  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet