Early Summer: Noticeably warmer from Saturday (24th March)

darkman2

Hi all, some impressively nice, stable and increasingly sunny and warm weather looks on the cards from Saturday really. We could be looking at 18 or 19c (later maybe even higher) in some places away from windward coasts. Very pleasant everywhere. Still a little cool at night though that's no bad thing either. There may be some fog here or there. But with the flow increasingly continental with less moisture clouds may well become rare over the next week or too. Alot of certainty across the models out into FI. This regime will be with us for a while by the looks of things.


I can post this chart dynamically because, well it won't change much at all. Blocking anticyclone.







Very stable. No sign of a breakdown within any kind of sensible timeframe so enjoy!:D

Nabber

Tis looking nice alright. Some charts like those in the summer would be very welcomed.

pauldry

Rainfall seems to have been quite low in the East this year.

Will this mean they will be in drought conditions?

No really large rainfall in the rest of March and the start of April seems ok too.

It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

I am hopeful this wont happen this year.

Why not? Well just a gut feeling.

darkman2

Yes that could become a bit of an issue in the East of Ireland but it could be a real issue for Southern England who are really struggling with their water levels at this stage. A hose ban is already imminent there. It's only March.

km79

It's beginning to feel very familiar. Nice fee weeks around April then ....... Misery till same time next year

Sponge Bob

pauldry wrote: »

It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

Been like that for the last 6 years. In November 2009 we had floods nationwide, especially the west. Once that stopped c 25 Nov 2009 it basically didn't rain again in the west until we got a solid 1 week soak starting on Palm Sunday ...around the 28th of March. 4 months of it.

Long unseasonal dry spells are not that unusual in recent years I think 2007 was the same.

April, is the driest month in Ireland and Darkman kindly found us April starting in March.

I'll take that AND a hot summer.

Deep Easterly

km79 wrote: »

It's beginning to feel very familiar. Nice fee weeks around April then ....... Misery till same time next year

ECMWF forecast for early next week:




Compare it to a fax analysis chart for this time last year (attached on bottom of this post as too big to put up. Scarily similar is right.

Deep Easterly

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Been like that for the last 6 years. In November 2009 we had floods nationwide, especially the west.

met.ie radar image from 12th Nov 09, a week before the big rains arrived, I remember even then radar images like this were happening on an almost daily basis from the end of October that year leading up to the main event.

mike65

Rain fall levels are well down for Febuary - about 40% of normal for much of the country, January was lower than the mean, March so far is well down - about 40% of normal.

Looking at November 2011 (data for December is not on site as PDF yet) Percentage of normal values ranged from 69% at Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford to 203% at
Valentia Observatory, where its daily fall of 57 mm on the 28th,
was its highest November daily fall reported since 1984.

Sponge Bob

That soil moisture deficit ( measure in MMs not %) . It will get worse not that I am worried as I am west of that line. You can have low (isH) rainfall without a deficit...ie it rains steadily and regularly but not overly.

Birdnuts

pauldry wrote: »

It seems to happen a lot now that we get god weather for March April and in May it gradually breaks down and then in Summer the Northwesterly kicks in.

I am hopeful this wont happen this year.

Why not? Well just a gut feeling.

Watch developments over Greenland closely over the next few weeks - if pressure starts rising there and beds in by May, then like last year our goose will be cooked!!:(

sunbabe08

oh goody, an early summer and than when the actual summer comes, there will be sweet feck all:(


it feels like this happens every year

dsmythy

The weather gods are an awful bunch of teases.

mike65

Its coming, just not until Saturday (possibly).

ednwireland

mike65 wrote: »

Its coming, just not until Saturday (possibly).

what the snow

cherryghost

Hazy sunshine and a pleasant 14 here in Athlone

pauldry

I think this year is different than the others.

No volcanoes (yet)

I think it will stay milder than normal for most months and Summer will be fine.

Stop worrying I am psycic (even if I dont know how to spell it)

Min

Temperatures in the high teens - upto 19C maybe 20C at the weekend, time for the sunscreen...

Nabber

Nice misty mild night in Dublin City.

Might be time to lit up the pot-belly-stove, couple of potatoes in foil thrown in for good measure.

Elmer Blooker

Min wrote: »

Temperatures in the high teens - upto 19C maybe 20C at the weekend, time for the sunscreen...

Not in Dublin with sea temperatures at their lowest at this time of year, east coastal areas may be plagued by sea fog with temps as low as 10 or 11c.
Because Dublin will more than likely miss out on this early summer heatwave I think this thread should be locked.

pauldry

Tomorrow looks a bit dodgy to me for sun. There is a lot of cloud in Atlantic making its way to Ireland.

Id say that West will be cloudy and East cold and in between OK with some sun. :mad: Was looking forward to wall to wall sun tomorrow too.

Harps

20 degrees on Sunday anyone?

Rikand

Hope so! Get to 20 right around 12:30, just before I tee off

pistolpetes11

Im playing golf tomorrow in Royal Tara , hoping for the good weather too !


What this that I have been hearing about a change to a colder pattern around the beginning of April , I hope not .

Birdnuts

Harps wrote: »

20 degrees on Sunday anyone?

Is March the new May

Musicman2000

Enjoy it folks ECM hinting at a change the last few days come April things could get very chilly as the polar vortex take a trip to scandi

Sponge Bob

OOOOOh was that 1917 when a great Blizzard came in early April????

MiNdGaM3

Nice blue skies all morning in Cork. Unfortunately I'm stuck in doors finishing my dissertation until Thursday, typical!
Currently 15.2C here in Cork. Met Eireann showing a few places already up to 17C.

dfbemt

darkman2 wrote: »

Yes that could become a bit of an issue in the East of Ireland but it could be a real issue for Southern England who are really struggling with their water levels at this stage. A hose ban is already imminent there. It's only March.

BBC's Countryfile about 2-3 weeks ago said that there was a ban already in place in some counties. Spoke with a farmer in Lincolnshire, who looked like he was living in a dustbowl. Had real concerns that he would not be able to sow spuds because of the low soil moisture levels.

Meanwhile on the northside of Dublin it is a lovely 16°C. The kitchen windows are open, there is barely a breeze and it is great to be out in the garden.

Big concerns though re forest / gorse fires at this time and this weather does not help.

Rikand

Warm in athlone, but there is a decent breeze blowing.

mike65

Gusty down here, bright but the sun is rather in and out. Not warm.

compsys

As someone who actually like to see the sun in the sky I have to say March has still been a fairly miserable month for me.

Yes, it's been extremely dry and settled but many of the days have been ridiculously dull, dark and cloudy. I'd almost prefer some rain because at least then you're guaranteed some half-decent sun between the showers - especially in the East. All we've gotten in Dublin recently is misty murky weather :mad:

Is anyone confident that we'll get to see some decent sun next week or will it be more of the same? Most of the forecasts are showing settled sunny weather for Dublin but it's never materialised this week so I'm not confident.

Also, what's the reason for all the cloud? If we have a strong anti-cyclone sitting over us then why isn't it bringing us more sunshine? Is it because of the cold sea or is the anti cyclone not really over us at all? If so, how come south east England is still bathing in glorious sunshine? Surely the water off the south east English coast is as cold if not colder than the Irish sea at the moment?

shootie

Currently 16C in North Co. Wexford with hazy sun. Rather close to the coast so can see some fog about. Its quite blustery as well so not quite shirtless weather!

sunbabe08

bright sunshine in cork, far from warm though. although looking out at it, it's looks lovely. damn assignments.

cherryghost

Suns gone in here in Athlone. Was about 17 before 2, its 15 now. Tomorrow looks much more promising everywhere though

Harps

Hazy sunshine earlier, gone cloudy now but still managed 17.3C

Looking at the 06Z GFS there's not a drop of rain anywhere for the rest of the month and beyond. Great for us but southern England is going to have big problems over the summer if they don't get some good rainfall soon

DOCARCH

Harps wrote: »

Hazy sunshine earlier, gone cloudy now but still managed 17.3C

Ditto here, got a max of 17.3c. Haxy sunshine at the moment.

cherryghost

Midday tomorrow. Current cloud passing through makes it way to Scotland leaving us in a less breezy setup.

Birdnuts

compsys wrote: »

As someone who actually like to see the sun in the sky I have to say March has still been a fairly miserable month for me.

Yes, it's been extremely dry and settled but many of the days have been ridiculously dull, dark and cloudy. I'd almost prefer some rain because at least then you're guaranteed some half-decent sun between the showers - especially in the East. All we've gotten in Dublin recently is misty murky weather :mad:

Is anyone confident that we'll get to see some decent sun next week or will it be more of the same? Most of the forecasts are showing settled sunny weather for Dublin but it's never materialised this week so I'm not confident.

Also, what's the reason for all the cloud? If we have a strong anti-cyclone sitting over us then why isn't it bringing us more sunshine? Is it because of the cold sea or is the anti cyclone not really over us at all? If so, how come south east England is still bathing in glorious sunshine? Surely the water off the south east English coast is as cold if not colder than the Irish sea at the moment?

There has been alot of Anticyclonic gloom this month for sure which is a very depressing type of weather, but I must say today here has been a cracker here with temps approaching 18C. In fact I can only remember 5 or 6 better days during what was supposed to be summer 2011:pac:

mickger844posts

Far from a cracking day here. Max temp 14.8c but a strong gusty South Easterly (Max Gust 50km/h)making it feel almost cold. Mostly cloudy now but some hazy sunshine earlier.

Harps

An interesting image from Netweather showing the radar returns for the month, not sure how accurate it is but as little as 10mm of rain showing up for parts of the south and east. With no rain at all for the rest of the month it looks like it could match or even beat last April for the lack of rain

xper

Harps wrote: »

An interesting image from Netweather showing the radar returns for the month, not sure how accurate it is but as little as 10mm of rain showing up for parts of the south and east. With no rain at all for the rest of the month it looks like it could match or even beat last April for the lack of rain

The noly thing I can conclude from that image is that there are significant blind sectors on many of the radar sites with Shannon, Belfast, London and Stornoway seemingly particularly prone and that there is pretty poor calibration between sites, most obviusly demonstrated by the boundary changes between Shannon and Land's End and the sectors going up the English east coast. Makes a bit of a mockery of trying to interpret the actual data.

yogidc26

Whats wrong with this. It was taken tonight

km79

yogidc26 wrote: »

Whats wrong with this. It was taken tonight

Clocks go forward .
Pedantic Pat Pedantic Pat and that is that

snaps

is that serious by RTE?

yogidc26

snaps wrote: »

is that serious by RTE?

Yep the news said forward and the weather said back so maybe we don't loose anything

Sponge Bob

Well done Darkman.....spot on forecasting in this thread.

ednwireland

was just looking at that weather forecast, its spring forward fall back , sheez

smallwonder

What's with all the wind? I nearly got blown off Errigal today! Is it going to be the same tomorrow does anyone know?

ninebeanrows

The Fohn effect in play right now at Casement.

Reaching 18c at 11am and yesterday that would have been 18c at 10am.

Quite the temperature for March 25th

mike65

Lovely jubbly weather - all sun and no wind