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01-09-2011, 16:06   #1
Tazio
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Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Please go easy on me lads.... I'm not even an amateur..

Just looking at some of the forecasts on the following site:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

and noticed this little lady moving in (see image attached)....

I saw somehting similar on the 'run' yesterday for the 14th Sep too... except that one had a depression value down to 960.

What could we expect assuming that model became reality? The convection chart (correct term?) looks like dumping a lot or rain too...

Great forum here btw! Thanks.


EDIT : I know this event is 2 weeks away and the accuracy is limited.
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01-09-2011, 16:34   #2
maquiladora
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On that run, "this little lady" is actually the remains of Hurricane Katia.

Just rain and a bit windy on that run because it weakens as it approaches Ireland.

That is really far into unreliable territory though. Ex-Katia could be a thousand miles to the northwest on the next run at that tme.
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01-09-2011, 16:38   #3
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Thanks... I didn't know it is (or would have been) the left overs of Katia..



Sounds sick, but I have to play with that website most mornings... it's addictive!
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07-09-2011, 15:06   #4
Tazio
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Please just humour my attempt at this forecasting science... but it looks like we're going to get a blast on Sunday and again on Monday??

In my VERY amateur opinion it looks like the South west will get a good hammering on Sunday? And the north west crazy winds on Monday..










EDIT: Just read some of the other threads... it seems so.. ok.. this thread can return to the bottom of the heap..

Last edited by Tazio; 07-09-2011 at 15:13.
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07-09-2011, 19:58   #5
Pangea
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Hats off to Tazio, your thread was ahead of its time
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07-09-2011, 20:08   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pangea View Post
Hats off to Tazio, your thread was ahead of its time
+1.... I think we should use this thread for next weeks event
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07-09-2011, 20:16   #7
A Country Voice
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Hi guys,

I'm very very interested in the weather on the 15th September in the South Munster area.
I'm hoping the possible stormy weather, and rain will be a distant memory by then.
Just looked at the chart on the wetterzentrale site. I think it looks reasonably well if H still means high, lol

Any of the experts in the thread able to give me any kind of idea what I might expect on the 15th? say from around noon to around 6pm?

I know its a bit far out to be super accurate, just any rough ideas?

Thanks a million

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07-09-2011, 20:16   #8
headmaster
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I'm totally lost, sorry
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07-09-2011, 20:22   #9
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This storm looks set to mainly affect the North Coast and maybe the Northwest. Munster will be fine
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07-09-2011, 20:22   #10
pauldry
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Well not fine as in sunny but fine as in not very stormy
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07-09-2011, 20:46   #11
M.T. Cranium
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Since we will probably need a dedicated thread to run parallel to the existing Katia thread and our forecast thread (readers are urged to visit both), I will ask a moderator to retitle this thread "Potential stormy weather in the north Monday 12th Sept") and perhaps place a note after the first post to explain how the thread evolved.

At the moment, there is concern for strong or even damaging wind gusts in Mayo and Donegal on Monday, gusty winds just about everywhere else but the further south you go, the more moderate the effects of the storm are likely to be (on current map guidance).

The silver lining is that once the extratropical hurricane Katia comes and goes, there could be a spell of very fine weather with higher pressure building in from the southwest. Sounds too good to be true in 2011, but that was the indication on today's model runs.
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07-09-2011, 22:17   #12
delw
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how long do you's think it will take the media to jump all over this with headlines like " Hurricane Katia to batter Ireland" etc..
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07-09-2011, 22:43   #13
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Should be an interesting few days ahead

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07-09-2011, 22:57   #14
 
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A look back at a forecast issued on the morning of 16th September 1961. The day 'Hurricane Debbie' smashed into Ireland:



"...but continuing strong with gale gusts.."


That was to be the understatement of the 20th century!!
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File Type: png 16th September 1961 forecast.png (35.4 KB, 6264 views)
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07-09-2011, 23:17   #15
Pangea
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I'm not familiar with Debbie, was the damage bad?

edit: Just found this.
http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/we...ane-Debbie.pdf

Has it any similar features with Katia or was Debbie stronger?

Double edit:
Debbies 50th anniversary next week, maybe Katia is here for the celebrations!

Last edited by Pangea; 07-09-2011 at 23:25.
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