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Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

  • 01-09-2011 3:06pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭


    Please go easy on me lads.... :eek: I'm not even an amateur..

    Just looking at some of the forecasts on the following site:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

    and noticed this little lady moving in (see image attached)....

    I saw somehting similar on the 'run' yesterday for the 14th Sep too... except that one had a depression value down to 960.

    What could we expect assuming that model became reality? The convection chart (correct term?) looks like dumping a lot or rain too...

    Great forum here btw! Thanks.


    EDIT : I know this event is 2 weeks away and the accuracy is limited.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    On that run, "this little lady" is actually the remains of Hurricane Katia.

    Just rain and a bit windy on that run because it weakens as it approaches Ireland.

    That is really far into unreliable territory though. Ex-Katia could be a thousand miles to the northwest on the next run at that tme.


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Thanks... I didn't know it is (or would have been) the left overs of Katia..



    Sounds sick, but I have to play with that website most mornings... it's addictive!


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Please just humour my attempt at this forecasting science... but it looks like we're going to get a blast on Sunday and again on Monday??

    In my VERY amateur opinion it looks like the South west will get a good hammering on Sunday? And the north west crazy winds on Monday..




    Rtavn961.png


    Rtavn1201.png


    EDIT: Just read some of the other threads... it seems so.. ok.. this thread can return to the bottom of the heap.. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Hats off to Tazio, your thread was ahead of its time :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Pangea wrote: »
    Hats off to Tazio, your thread was ahead of its time :D

    +1.... I think we should use this thread for next weeks event:)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 330 ✭✭A Country Voice


    Hi guys,

    I'm very very interested in the weather on the 15th September in the South Munster area.
    I'm hoping the possible stormy weather, and rain will be a distant memory by then.
    Just looked at the chart on the wetterzentrale site. I think it looks reasonably well if H still means high, lol

    Any of the experts in the thread able to give me any kind of idea what I might expect on the 15th? say from around noon to around 6pm?

    I know its a bit far out to be super accurate, just any rough ideas?

    Thanks a million

    A Country Voice


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 687 ✭✭✭headmaster


    I'm totally lost, sorry


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    This storm looks set to mainly affect the North Coast and maybe the Northwest. Munster will be fine


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Well not fine as in sunny but fine as in not very stormy


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,268 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Since we will probably need a dedicated thread to run parallel to the existing Katia thread and our forecast thread (readers are urged to visit both), I will ask a moderator to retitle this thread "Potential stormy weather in the north Monday 12th Sept") and perhaps place a note after the first post to explain how the thread evolved.

    At the moment, there is concern for strong or even damaging wind gusts in Mayo and Donegal on Monday, gusty winds just about everywhere else but the further south you go, the more moderate the effects of the storm are likely to be (on current map guidance).

    The silver lining is that once the extratropical hurricane Katia comes and goes, there could be a spell of very fine weather with higher pressure building in from the southwest. Sounds too good to be true in 2011, but that was the indication on today's model runs.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    how long do you's think it will take the media to jump all over this with headlines like " Hurricane Katia to batter Ireland" etc..


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Should be an interesting few days ahead

    tropwindskatia.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    A look back at a forecast issued on the morning of 16th September 1961. The day 'Hurricane Debbie' smashed into Ireland:

    173630.png173631.png

    "...but continuing strong with gale gusts.."


    That was to be the understatement of the 20th century!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    I'm not familiar with Debbie, was the damage bad?

    edit: Just found this.
    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf

    Has it any similar features with Katia or was Debbie stronger?

    Double edit:
    Debbies 50th anniversary next week, maybe Katia is here for the celebrations! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Pangea wrote: »
    I'm not familiar with Debbie, was the damage bad?

    edit: Just found this.
    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf

    Has it any similar features with Katia or was Debbie stronger?

    Double edit:
    Debbies 50th anniversary next week, maybe Katia is here for the celebrations! :pac:

    Debbie never headed far across the atlantic after forming and approached Ireland from the south so be hard to compare like for like I'd imagine.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Pangea wrote: »
    I'm not familiar with Debbie, was the damage bad?

    edit: Just found this.
    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf

    Has it any similar features with Katia or was Debbie stronger?

    Double edit:
    Debbies 50th anniversary next week, maybe Katia is here for the celebrations! :pac:

    Sounds bloody amazing! Would love that too happen again. Minus the deaths of course.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    I think I might extend my visit home to Belmullet this weekend :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven


    Pangea wrote: »
    I'm not familiar with Debbie, was the damage bad?

    edit: Just found this.
    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Sep1961_hurricane-Debbie.pdf

    Has it any similar features with Katia or was Debbie stronger?

    Double edit:
    Debbies 50th anniversary next week, maybe Katia is here for the celebrations! :pac:

    25th Anniversary of Charley just passed. We're due one...

    However,this looks like a deep Atlantic storm depression by Sunday night passing north of Scotland, so nothing out of the ordinary - at this stage I stress.


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭Tazio


    I have to say I'm excited the fact MT has posted on this thread.. :D Thanks Peter.. I'm a fan of your blog and FB updates! Thanks for the information.

    We've new baby due on Monday the 12th... and if it's a girl then I think we may have to consider Katia or Katie as a name.. ;)


    Just looking at the GSF models again and it seems to show (correct me if I'm wrong) that the rain will not be substantial.. is it correct to say that low amounts of rain will have a direct impact on wind speed.. i.e. the less rain the less resistance etc?

    Rtavn1084.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    hi all......just my opinion but i think katie will weaken even more before it gets here.yesterday nhc had it still as a hurricane north between iceland and ireland but today it already changed and has it as an atlantic storm hundreds of miles before it gets here,i think it will probably weaken further:(. is it possible for this hurricane to strengthen and maybe stay as a cat 1 hurricane as it reaches ireland or are our waters just too cold for that to happen?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Tazio you have very interesting ideas on the weather. This is the place for you;)

    Perhaps some of the others could answer your query but I think this storm is losing some of its potential already damn it.

    Good luck with baby. We have 2wins and very busy. Cant tell you any more as its a weather thread :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Isn't it the case that the higher opne lives above sea level the higher the wind speeds?
    So how does it work for lets 100m, 200m or 300m above sea level?
    Is there a general rule when it comes to increased wind speeds and elevation?

    Just guesing the wind from ex-hurricane Katia will be from a SW to W direction turning NW?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Min wrote: »
    Isn't it the case that the higher opne lives above sea level the higher the wind speeds?
    So how does it work for lets 100m, 200m or 300m above sea level?
    Is there a general rule when it comes to increased wind speeds and elevation?

    ?

    yes i think so.
    i believe pressure gradient, the Coriolis effect(?) and friction play a part in wind strength and direction. so, yes the higher up you go the less friction there is from the surface, so the wind speed will be stronger.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    yes i think so.
    i believe pressure gradient, the Coriolis effect(?) and friction play a part in wind strength and direction. so, yes the higher up you go the less friction there is from the surface, so the wind speed will be stronger.

    It probably depends on a lot of things, 10 miles inland on relatively higher elevation would probably be less windy than an exposed area right at sea level.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    hi all......just my opinion but i think katie will weaken even more before it gets here.yesterday nhc had it still as a hurricane north between iceland and ireland but today it already changed and has it as an atlantic storm hundreds of miles before it gets here,i think it will probably weaken further:(. is it possible for this hurricane to strengthen and maybe stay as a cat 1 hurricane as it reaches ireland or are our waters just too cold for that to happen?

    It actually picked up a bit of strength overnight. It is a long way from Ireland yet though as you say.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    It probably depends on a lot of things, 10 miles inland on relatively higher elevation would probably be less windy than an exposed area right at sea level.


    Yes it likely would be, because encountering land causes surfaces friction, which reduces wind speed. That is why counties further inland are usually less windy than Mayo and Donegal.

    Generally though wind at height is greater because it only has to deal with molecular friction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Yes it likely would be, because encountering land causes surfaces friction, which reduces wind speed. That is why counties further inland are usually less windy than Mayo and Donegal.

    Generally though wind at height is greater because it only has to deal with molecular friction.

    YEP, quite right indeed..
    Generally speaking wind speed increases with height above the surface as the frictional force of surface diminishes with height. The friction imposed on air mechanically slows the wind and diverts its direction. The friction layer is the layer of air that is influenced by friction caused by the surface. The friction layer varies in height across the Earth, but for the most part lies within about a kilometer of the surface.

    friction_small.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    To my amateur eyes it looks like the yellow area has got even closer to Donegal on the latest Katia update and now the Entire Co.Donegal is engulfed in the light green colour including the edge of surrounding counties including West Mayo. Does this mean the wind speeds could be upgraded?
    YRfuI.gif


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Hey all, been on holidays in Spain and its great to see some possible action this coming week! New models are rolling out now and looks like this weekends low is shifting further eastwards. Hopefully this will influence Monday's depression :)

    The jetstream forecast also sees a further trend eastwards on Monday


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes an interesting period coming up.

    If you look at Charlie in 86' you can see that it isn't actually a extremely deep storm but its position, the amount of moisture in the system and the time of year created a extremely damaging system

    One interesting aspect of the storm is the potential for a really intense period of rain which could hit the country if Katia can cross the country and maintain some intensity.

    Rrea00119860826.gif


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