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23-11-2010, 19:23   #1
Trogdor
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Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

As with the snow reports thread i will try and open a new thread for forecast discussion every day or as is needed to stop things getting cluttered up.

Please post any discussion on the forecast of the current cold spell here.

If anyone would like to learn more about interpretting winter charts and some of the parameters needed for snow, here are a few links:

Forecasting snow in Ireland
http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum...ow-in-ireland/

Winter setups in the UK
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/563...winter-setups/

Lake effect snow
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/lesnow/

(If anyone would like to add any more just pm me with the link)
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23-11-2010, 19:29   #2
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Originally Posted by JanuarySnowstor View Post
ANOTHER, disgraceful (imo) forecast from Met E tonight.
She barely mentioned anything of note.
This is not what the charts are showing, indeed EVEN with downgrades this event looks very serious for disruptive snowfall by later in the wkd.

Why oh why are they always afraid to mention the 's' word
It's becoming a pain in the....
Disruptive snowfall where exactly? If met eireann say it's gonna snow now in 5 days and it doesn't everyone will be saying how useless they are. Even now there's hardly any potential for snow it's VERY marginal, People get way too carried away it's only november.
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23-11-2010, 19:32   #3
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A statement like Disruptive snowfall at this still early stage is way over top and giving people here false info.

Im still letting the horse run But am enjoying his first mile around the track.
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23-11-2010, 19:35   #4
 
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The last thread got locked so posting again.

Could someone help me out.

I was wondering which one of these charts are the most reliable or are the much of muchness!

GFS Charts, ECMWF Charts or the Uk MO.

Many Thanks.
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23-11-2010, 19:35   #5
 
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hey lads how do you imbed an image on a post
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23-11-2010, 19:36   #6
 
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I'm liking the trend for the high to sink a bit further south to allow a weak ridging into Eastern Europe during next week which hopefully will spur on a more continental sourced flow over Ireland:



with a nice drying & invigorating wind!
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23-11-2010, 19:52   #7
 
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Originally Posted by roryc1 View Post
hey lads how do you imbed an image on a post
Go to the bottom of your screen (in 'reply' mode), you'll see 'manage attachments' button:




A wee box will come up and you can paste the url image into it, then press 'upload'. When the image is uploaded, copy the url, click on this box on the reply box:



then paste the attached image url into it. Click ok and your away!
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23-11-2010, 20:04   #8
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Saturday looks like a major event in eastern/northern areas on all charts.

The mountains will definitely see major snowfall for anyone going tobogganing!
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23-11-2010, 20:05   #9
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earlier this morning
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23-11-2010, 20:06   #10
 
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I will start with this one
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23-11-2010, 20:10   #11
Trogdor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotwhiskey View Post
The last thread got locked so posting again.

Could someone help me out.

I was wondering which one of these charts are the most reliable or are the much of muchness!

GFS Charts, ECMWF Charts or the Uk MO.

Many Thanks.
They all have their ups and downs really but i think generally, ECMWF and UKMO would be just a bit more acuracate than GFS.

There's some more stats/info here:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html
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23-11-2010, 20:39   #12
 
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My view on matters:

Snow showers can be expected in most parts of Ireland over the next week as Arctic conditions extend from the north.

Mercury levels across the country will fall to minus 7c by the beginning of next week while wintry showers also will become more widespread.

Present indications are that the cold weather will continue until the end of the first week of December with no real sign of the Atlantic re-establishing itself. The early winter cold spell is reminiscent of the Big Freeze of Winter 2009-10 which saw sub zero temperatures and occasional snow bring travel chaos across Ireland.

High ground, approximately 400-500ft above sea level in parts of the North and Northwest will see some sleet and hail showers tomorrow while the highest peaks will receive a covering of snow by Thursday morning. These showers will continue for much of Thursday and Friday.

Air temperatures will drop to minus 5-6c in parts of the Midlands, Mid West and South West by Friday night while ground temperatures could plummet to minus 9c or lower.

By Saturday, most parts of the country will be at risk of seeing wintry showers with accumulations of 2-5cm likely over the highest ground in the West, North and East of the country.

These showers will become more confine to northern and eastern areas by later in the weekend as wind shifts from a northerly to a North-easterly direction.


Snow showers more widespread next week due to a strong easterly wind

The start of next week is likely to see most of the wintry precipitation fall in the eastern half of the country where some snow can be expected at lower levels, particularly at night-time. Some of these could be heavy and will extend inland to east Munster, the Midlands, Ulster and east Connaught on a strong and bitterly cold Easterly wind. The Dublin and Wicklow Mountains, as well as higher ground in Kilkenny and Carlow could see significant accumulations.

Daytime temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing in sheltered areas next week while night-time air temperatures will dip to as low as minus 7 or 8c by midweek.
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23-11-2010, 20:56   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WolfeIRE View Post
My view on matters:

Snow showers can be expected in most parts of Ireland over the next week as Arctic conditions extend from the north.

Mercury levels across the country will fall to minus 7c by the beginning of next week while wintry showers also will become more widespread.

Present indications are that the cold weather will continue until the end of the first week of December with no real sign of the Atlantic re-establishing itself. The early winter cold spell is reminiscent of the Big Freeze of Winter 2009-10 which saw sub zero temperatures and occasional snow bring travel chaos across Ireland.

High ground, approximately 400-500ft above sea level in parts of the North and Northwest will see some sleet and hail showers tomorrow while the highest peaks will receive a covering of snow by Thursday morning. These showers will continue for much of Thursday and Friday.

Air temperatures will drop to minus 5-6c in parts of the Midlands, Mid West and South West by Friday night while ground temperatures could plummet to minus 9c or lower.

By Saturday, most parts of the country will be at risk of seeing wintry showers with accumulations of 2-5cm likely over the highest ground in the West, North and East of the country.

These showers will become more confine to northern and eastern areas by later in the weekend as wind shifts from a northerly to a North-easterly direction.


Snow showers more widespread next week due to a strong easterly wind

The start of next week is likely to see most of the wintry precipitation fall in the eastern half of the country where some snow can be expected at lower levels, particularly at night-time. Some of these could be heavy and will extend inland to east Munster, the Midlands, Ulster and east Connaught on a strong and bitterly cold Easterly wind. The Dublin and Wicklow Mountains, as well as higher ground in Kilkenny and Carlow could see significant accumulations.

Daytime temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing in sheltered areas next week while night-time air temperatures will dip to as low as minus 7 or 8c by midweek.
Thats some forecast..
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23-11-2010, 21:07   #14
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Click original link for audio.

Cold snap set to hit North West and Ulster this weekend

Posted: 23/Nov 18:08
Last Updated: 23/Nov 18:08

It looks like it’s time to bring out the winter woollies again this week – with a major cold snap forecast for the next few days.

Met Eireann says the worst of the weather will be over the weekend – but it will hit first on Thursday.

The cold snap means snow and sleet will hit many parts of the country – but the North-west will be worst affected.

Ground temperatures are also expected to hit as low as minus ten degrees at night.

Vincent O’Shea of Met Eireann says the weekend will see the worst of the weather.


http://www.highlandradio.com/2010/11...-this-weekend/

Note on audio link he said theres a danger there could be snow in many areas over the weekend including lower levels.

Last edited by Pangea; 23-11-2010 at 21:11.
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23-11-2010, 21:16   #15
 
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there will be a dusting of snow on the highest peaks in connemara, mayo and donegal by morning. Some of those showers making their way down the west coast tonight will be beefy.
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