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Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    ANOTHER, disgraceful (imo) forecast from Met E tonight.
    She barely mentioned anything of note.
    This is not what the charts are showing, indeed EVEN with downgrades this event looks very serious for disruptive snowfall by later in the wkd.

    Why oh why are they always afraid to mention the 's' word
    It's becoming a pain in the....

    Disruptive snowfall where exactly? If met eireann say it's gonna snow now in 5 days and it doesn't everyone will be saying how useless they are. Even now there's hardly any potential for snow it's VERY marginal, People get way too carried away it's only november.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    A statement like Disruptive snowfall at this still early stage is way over top and giving people here false info.

    Im still letting the horse run But am enjoying his first mile around the track.:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    The last thread got locked so posting again.

    Could someone help me out.

    I was wondering which one of these charts are the most reliable or are the much of muchness!

    GFS Charts, ECMWF Charts or the Uk MO.

    Many Thanks.:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    hey lads how do you imbed an image on a post


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I'm liking the trend for the high to sink a bit further south to allow a weak ridging into Eastern Europe during next week which hopefully will spur on a more continental sourced flow over Ireland:

    136145.gif

    with a nice drying & invigorating wind!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    roryc1 wrote: »
    hey lads how do you imbed an image on a post

    Go to the bottom of your screen (in 'reply' mode), you'll see 'manage attachments' button:

    136148.jpg


    A wee box will come up and you can paste the url image into it, then press 'upload'. When the image is uploaded, copy the url, click on this box on the reply box:

    136150.jpg

    then paste the attached image url into it. Click ok and your away! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,278 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Saturday looks like a major event in eastern/northern areas on all charts.

    The mountains will definitely see major snowfall for anyone going tobogganing!


  • Registered Users Posts: 199 ✭✭IMBACKLATER


    earlier this morning


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    I will start with this one :DECM1-144.GIF?23-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    hotwhiskey wrote: »
    The last thread got locked so posting again.

    Could someone help me out.

    I was wondering which one of these charts are the most reliable or are the much of muchness!

    GFS Charts, ECMWF Charts or the Uk MO.

    Many Thanks.:)

    They all have their ups and downs really but i think generally, ECMWF and UKMO would be just a bit more acuracate than GFS.

    There's some more stats/info here:
    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    My view on matters:

    Snow showers can be expected in most parts of Ireland over the next week as Arctic conditions extend from the north.

    Mercury levels across the country will fall to minus 7c by the beginning of next week while wintry showers also will become more widespread.

    Present indications are that the cold weather will continue until the end of the first week of December with no real sign of the Atlantic re-establishing itself. The early winter cold spell is reminiscent of the Big Freeze of Winter 2009-10 which saw sub zero temperatures and occasional snow bring travel chaos across Ireland.

    High ground, approximately 400-500ft above sea level in parts of the North and Northwest will see some sleet and hail showers tomorrow while the highest peaks will receive a covering of snow by Thursday morning. These showers will continue for much of Thursday and Friday.

    Air temperatures will drop to minus 5-6c in parts of the Midlands, Mid West and South West by Friday night while ground temperatures could plummet to minus 9c or lower.

    By Saturday, most parts of the country will be at risk of seeing wintry showers with accumulations of 2-5cm likely over the highest ground in the West, North and East of the country.

    These showers will become more confine to northern and eastern areas by later in the weekend as wind shifts from a northerly to a North-easterly direction.

    ECM1-144.GIF
    Snow showers more widespread next week due to a strong easterly wind

    The start of next week is likely to see most of the wintry precipitation fall in the eastern half of the country where some snow can be expected at lower levels, particularly at night-time. Some of these could be heavy and will extend inland to east Munster, the Midlands, Ulster and east Connaught on a strong and bitterly cold Easterly wind. The Dublin and Wicklow Mountains, as well as higher ground in Kilkenny and Carlow could see significant accumulations.

    Daytime temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing in sheltered areas next week while night-time air temperatures will dip to as low as minus 7 or 8c by midweek.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,333 ✭✭✭Saganist


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    My view on matters:

    Snow showers can be expected in most parts of Ireland over the next week as Arctic conditions extend from the north.

    Mercury levels across the country will fall to minus 7c by the beginning of next week while wintry showers also will become more widespread.

    Present indications are that the cold weather will continue until the end of the first week of December with no real sign of the Atlantic re-establishing itself. The early winter cold spell is reminiscent of the Big Freeze of Winter 2009-10 which saw sub zero temperatures and occasional snow bring travel chaos across Ireland.

    High ground, approximately 400-500ft above sea level in parts of the North and Northwest will see some sleet and hail showers tomorrow while the highest peaks will receive a covering of snow by Thursday morning. These showers will continue for much of Thursday and Friday.

    Air temperatures will drop to minus 5-6c in parts of the Midlands, Mid West and South West by Friday night while ground temperatures could plummet to minus 9c or lower.

    By Saturday, most parts of the country will be at risk of seeing wintry showers with accumulations of 2-5cm likely over the highest ground in the West, North and East of the country.

    These showers will become more confine to northern and eastern areas by later in the weekend as wind shifts from a northerly to a North-easterly direction.

    ECM1-144.GIF
    Snow showers more widespread next week due to a strong easterly wind

    The start of next week is likely to see most of the wintry precipitation fall in the eastern half of the country where some snow can be expected at lower levels, particularly at night-time. Some of these could be heavy and will extend inland to east Munster, the Midlands, Ulster and east Connaught on a strong and bitterly cold Easterly wind. The Dublin and Wicklow Mountains, as well as higher ground in Kilkenny and Carlow could see significant accumulations.

    Daytime temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing in sheltered areas next week while night-time air temperatures will dip to as low as minus 7 or 8c by midweek.

    Thats some forecast.. :eek::eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Click original link for audio.

    Cold snap set to hit North West and Ulster this weekend

    Posted: 23/Nov 18:08
    Last Updated: 23/Nov 18:08

    It looks like it’s time to bring out the winter woollies again this week – with a major cold snap forecast for the next few days.

    Met Eireann says the worst of the weather will be over the weekend – but it will hit first on Thursday.

    The cold snap means snow and sleet will hit many parts of the country – but the North-west will be worst affected.

    Ground temperatures are also expected to hit as low as minus ten degrees at night.

    Vincent O’Shea of Met Eireann says the weekend will see the worst of the weather.


    http://www.highlandradio.com/2010/11/23/cold-snap-set-to-hit-north-west-and-ulster-this-weekend/

    Note on audio link he said theres a danger there could be snow in many areas over the weekend including lower levels.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    there will be a dusting of snow on the highest peaks in connemara, mayo and donegal by morning. Some of those showers making their way down the west coast tonight will be beefy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,027 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    If those showers make it down across Galway with the present temps would it be safe to say that ice could be the main danger tonight.
    I suppose i'll know for sure when I head out in about 2 hrs time...


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Hoping for a good 18Z GFS....here we go...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    More of the same from Jean, risk of snow etc.
    Didn't emphasise the fact that it will get progressively colder from Friday
    Ah well we know better here and will prepare accordingly


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    One thing i have noticed the initial blast tomorrow and thursday has been increasingly enhanced lately.

    Tomorrow night sees the potential for some hail/sleet possibly turning to snow showers glancing off the east coast.

    Probably hitting Wicklow, Wexford coastline off a NNE trek.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    One thing i have noticed the initial blast tomorrow and thursday has been increasingly enhanced lately.

    Tomorrow night sees the potential for some hail/sleet possibly turning to snow showers glancing off the east coast.

    Probably hitting Wicklow, Wexford coastline off a NNE trek.

    Been keeping a very keen eye on that;) probably too marginal for accumulations on the coast but i'm hopeful of at least maybe some falling snow here in the early hours of thursday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,946 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Saturday looking good for the south-east on the 18Z if i'm reading it correctly. (Only learning!)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    More of the same from Jean, risk of snow etc.
    Didn't emphasise the fact that it will get progressively colder from Friday
    Ah well we know better here and will prepare accordingly

    Actually she did say it was going to get progressively colder from thursday onwards so not sure what you are basing that statement on :confused:

    Us weather enthusiasts may have a clue what might be coming in the longer term and indeed why it is coming but 99.99% of the population don't. ;)


    Check it out for yourself:

    http://www.rte.ie/player/#v=1085535

    go to 23 mins.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    gfs-1-114.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    GFS not so good at 144...fairly mild upper temps over us.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Here's a very interesting article (Google translation) from the Norwegian Met on today's Polar Low off the north coast of Finnmark, which is the strongest of the year so far.

    It would be nice to have such an article on the met.ie site around next Monday eh!! :D

    8cfgbEje4Uz5aC3VUAaH4wgtOo_b4kvp6XntHDpla9Uw.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    gfs-1-114.png?18
    maq still trying to learn reading them charts but is that -10 850hpa creeping in over us which would realy increase chance of snow at lower levels?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS not so good at 144...fairly mild upper temps over us.

    I think we've lost the meaning of the word mild!

    850hpas briefly down to -5/-6c for a few hours before returning to -7/-8c!?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    delw wrote: »
    maq still trying to learn reading them charts but is that -10 850hpa creeping in over us which would realy increase chance of snow at lower levels?

    Yes, it doesnt last long, but if there any precipitation around there at the time it would certainly help it to fall as snow.

    That is by no means set in stone though. Just what its showing at the moment.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    I think we've lost the meaning of the word mild!

    850hpas briefly down to -5/-6c for a few hours before returning to -7/-8c!?

    I think were getting greedy on here , 2 years ago people would be in meltdown over the charts that have been popping up lately .

    Ah well here goes for another Winter of watching the weather forum and getting feck all work done !

    The first cold one of the 10/11 winter season , I cant wait


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I think were getting greedy on here , 2 years ago people would be in meltdown over the charts that have been popping up lately .

    Ah well here goes for another Winter of watching the weather forum and getting feck all work done !

    The first cold one of the 10/11 winter season , I cant wait

    Ye i agree, that charts are incredible.

    We've probably only had a spell of cold projected around 3 (2 times last year) times in the last 10 years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I think we've lost the meaning of the word mild!

    850hpas briefly down to -5/-6c for a few hours before returning to -7/-8c!?

    Parts of the northwest are in the -4 zone for almost 24 hours. 138 to 156.

    Its a long way off, will most likely change anyway, hopefully in the cooler direction.


This discussion has been closed.
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