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28-10-2010, 17:42   #1
 
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Heavy Rain - Flood risk

A lot of rain forecast for Ireland in the next five days, with medium term outlooks predicting further atlantic systems will be crossing the country.

Last November saw a similar set up which resulted in serious flooding throughout the country, particulary in counties Cork, Clare and Galway. The only difference this year is that the current wet spel of weather has not been preceeded by a record breaking wet summer, as experienced in 2009.

The water table is pretty much at capacity according to http://www.met.ie/agmet/smd_wds.asp so any sustained rainfall will lead to flooding as the water has nowhere to go.

Latest warning from Met Eireann.

Warnings


Weather Warning

Issued at 28 October 2010 - 14:09
Rainfall Warning
Rainfall amounts of 25 - 40mm likely in parts of Munster and Leinster.

from 18:00 28/10/2010
to 18:00 29/10/2010
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28-10-2010, 18:12   #2
 
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Here is where tomorrow's potential wave is beginning to develop on the 12z Fax analysis, with arrow showing where most of the main models have it running over the next 18/24hrs






Current Sat image with wave formation starting in circled area:





Will be interesting to see how it develops over the next 24hrs
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Tomorrow's wave potential sat image.jpg (85.4 KB, 1745 views)
File Type: jpg Tomorrow's wave potential.jpg (140.4 KB, 1722 views)

Last edited by Deep Easterly; 28-10-2010 at 20:40. Reason: Added sat image+added missing fax chart
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28-10-2010, 18:54   #3
km79
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not again
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28-10-2010, 20:29   #4
isle of man
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wind has got up here,
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28-10-2010, 20:38   #5
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Winds have really picked up here in the past 2 hours, no heavy rain since about 4;30pm just spots of drizzle,

have my new Panasonic Lumix so i'll get a quick night time video later if the wind and rain gets any bit violent
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28-10-2010, 20:45   #6
 
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ECMWF rain forecast for midday tomorrow:




Might be wise to bring one of these:


if you are planning outdoor activiites tomorrow.
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File Type: jpg ECM 29th Noon.jpg (85.2 KB, 1665 views)
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28-10-2010, 21:32   #7
CarMuppet
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I'm in Riverstick now on a hill open from the SE right around tonthe west. My iPhone is getting soaked as I'm typing this bit the wind has seriouly picked up. No way p measuring speed but heavy rain is falling sideways. And trees are flexing a lot. Right back to the 4x4 for me now.
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28-10-2010, 21:37   #8
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heavy rain here in cork. wind picking up again. love this type of weather
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28-10-2010, 21:42   #9
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Well it is half term so of course it is going to be wet and windy. Five days should bring us nicely to Monday which I predict will bring clear blue skies, cold but no wind or rain all day till 3pm.

Wet but not pouring here in KK and no wind to speak of but with the recent rain the leaves have turned into a sodden mess everywhere which can be worse than ice for skidding on so watch out on the roads.
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28-10-2010, 22:12   #10
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Very windy on the hills in KK...
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28-10-2010, 22:12   #11
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Just a clip from a passing shower at 9:45pm, taking with my Panasonic Lumix TZ7 sorry about the strong blue streaks but its typical of CCD sensors in cameras,

the camera is brand new and this is actually my first night video with a digital camera, 720p available on the Youtube clip

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28-10-2010, 22:18   #12
 
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I'd forgotton what serious rain was like, but it looks like we're going to make up for whatever deficit there may be in the Deise soil.
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28-10-2010, 22:46   #13
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Min View Post
Very windy on the hills in KK...

Very windy on the flat low bits in kk also!!!


Quote:
Originally Posted by CarMuppet View Post
I'm in Riverstick now on a hill open from the SE right around tonthe west. My iPhone is getting soaked as I'm typing this bit the wind has seriouly picked up. No way p measuring speed but heavy rain is falling sideways. And trees are flexing a lot. Right back to the 4x4 for me now.

Being an iphone it will probably lose signal or something now . . .
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28-10-2010, 22:53   #14
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Really windy up here now. Howling outside. Accu giving gusts of 50plus. Temp about 12 c.
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28-10-2010, 23:00   #15
 
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My weather station shows 171.4 kmh @7.48PM. That's about 100 more than most near me.
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