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Cold Spell Discussion: Heavy Snow this evening especially in eastern/southern areas

  • 19-02-2010 5:21pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    A new thread for the weekend.

    Could be an exciting one with many potential snow events.

    A big one comes tomorrow night and has all the ingredients to give a real treat to a large part of the country.

    It swings into the west coast tomorrow evening and pushes eastwards towards midnight before spinning back into the east coast Sunday morning and clearing into Britain.

    At this point accumulation amounts are uncertain but could be decent, 10cms in places, perhaps more in areas of the east.

    Meanwhile tonight sees continued risk of snow showers right across the country before they die back to coastal districts of the west and north by midnight.

    Tomorrows Precipitation Forecast

    ukprec.png

    ukprec.png

    ukprec.png


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Munster,

    If the precip arrives in middle of the day it will fall as rain/sleet in most areas. It should turn increasingly to snow as the evening progresses.

    Met.ie radar is back.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    good to see the potential might be around sunset onwards. should be very interesting to watch


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Whilst I have no doubt many Southern areas will see snow tomorrow night just a word of caution. The models are very fickle atm even 48 hrs out...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Whilst I have no doubt many Southern areas will see snow tomorrow night just a word of caution. The models are very fickle atm even 48 hrs out...

    Very true. Wasn't it the GFS this time yesterday showing a widespread snow event for the central part of the country tonight, as well as the NAE model. No sign at all of that today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 71 ✭✭eoinor


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Munster,

    If the precip arrives in middle of the day it will fall as rain/sleet in most areas. It should turn increasingly to snow as the evening progresses.

    Met.ie radar is back.

    And now Dublin is down!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    some very heavy showers moving towards kerry and clare
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    some very heavy showers moving towards kerry and clare
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

    Yep thats apart of that feature moving across the south and into Wales and England later.

    Will move from Clare across to Wexford and south of that line. Giving a period of snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,278 ✭✭✭arctictree


    I am eagerly waiting the ECM 12z because the 00z shows the precip as barely brushing the south coast:

    100219_0000_48.png

    Big difference in the charts at this stage.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Guessing theres not much chance of anything significant here tonight? Its been snowing heavily all day but its cleared up in the past hour and hasnt been a sign of anything ever since


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Galway Docks cam looking WSW. Dark to the west but showers out to sea don't look that impressive, although they are too far away to tell from that point + it's getting dark.

    current.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 569 ✭✭✭gugsy


    Galway Docks cam looking WSW. Dark to the west but showers out to sea don't look that impressive, although they are too far away to tell from that point + it's getting dark.

    current.jpg
    Still no precipitation here in the city heavy clouds to the south west over clare/burren. Clouds building northwest on radar it looks like it will hit in the next half hour to hour could be prolonged. Precipitation most likely rain near the coast as it hits colder air futher inland will turn to sleet and snow and possibly wintery near coasts as temp falls during the night. could be a white one by morn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Well a very interesting 5 or 6 days coming up.
    First of all the easy part, night time temps look exceptionally cold for late February with mins between -3 to -7C. If we hadn't experienced incredible cold in Jan this would really stand out, trouble is we are seasoned cold campaigners this year.
    Now regarding ppn, the first chance will be tonight for the South and West as showers move across giving snowfall, pbly lying where they persist as WC says on a line from Clare to Wexford.
    Tomorrow evening looks like the main course though as widespread snowfall is now looking very likely with Southern and Eastern areas most at risk. This has all the ingredients of a Polar low and as such is one.
    Beyond that looks like bitterly cold Sunday with widespread ice Sunday night. So in summary a wintry wkd ahead with plenty potential.
    My favourite phrase in situ's like this is "it's likely to snow so it pbly wont":D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Heavy shower again in Letterkenny, just had a look out and everything is pure white again including the roads, looks like we might do well again tonight afterall


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Speaking of Polar lows, i have spotted one to our northwest.

    Just beginning to develop, doubt its our feature for tomorrow though.

    Just to the right of the time here.

    image.ashx?country=gb&type=last&time=201002191945&sat=


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I think we're seeing more agreement now with the models regarding tomorrow evening's system, with southern and central parts seeing the bulk of the precipitation, which won't be very much it must be said. But it should give snow down to around 50m on its leading edge, rising to around 100m as it crosses the country. The GFS has really cold air setting in behind it for Sunday, but with much warmer air aloft arriving from the south, shower activity should be heaviest in the northwest, where 500hPa temperatures will be around 14°C colder than the south, and indeed a little further north will be down to -41 or -42°C, a real breeding ground for polar lows. Excellent lapse rates and a good synoptic setup could produce something to our north, but IF it did, this low would be unlikely to affect us. But this is the nearest we've got to such cold air this winter, so while we've been dissapointed many times before, this is a good opportunity to get up close to a polar low....maybe the closest we'll ever get! :rolleyes:

    10022100_1900.gif

    Monday looks like being a good opportunity for those Waterford people who've been hard done by before as the more frontal snowfall looks likely to clip the southeast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes WC that does indeed look like a Polar feature / low.
    Expect the next 24hours to deliver snow to many, but history tells me it will happen at a different timing to the models suggest.
    Bitterly cold air very very close to us has to breed Polar lows;)


  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 12,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭byhookorbycrook


    hope not, have a three hour drive from Carlow to Midleton and back to do tomorrow.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM the latest model to bring Monday's snow event closer. Only a few miles in it now literally and the East and Southeast have a snow event.

    100219_1200_66.png


    Tomorrow night is not registering anything particularly exciting (unless of course the ECM is clearing the precipitation off the East coast by midnight in which case lowering the risk of snow at sea level generallly)

    mean_sea_level_pressure_and_24h_cumulated_precipitations!36!Europe!msl!pop!od!oper!w_mslrain!2010021912!!chart.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    yes, but su campu seems to indicate that any polar low would miss us. still, hopefully we'd get plenty of snow showers pushing well inland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Trouble is darkman we need heavy ppn for it to be snow on Monday
    Imo it will be rain if it just skirts past us as the ppn would then be light.
    Certainly one to watch though and not a bad dessert after tomorrows snow event:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Harps wrote: »
    Heavy shower again in Letterkenny, just had a look out and everything is pure white again including the roads, looks like we might do well again tonight afterall

    what did i tell you earlier that we had heard enough about snow in donegal?!

    JS what do you think of our snow chances in cork? 2-5cm? more or none?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Just having a nice little snow shower in Naas :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    what did i tell you earlier that we had heard enough about snow in donegal?!

    JS what do you think of our snow chances in cork? 2-5cm? more or none?
    We are getting tiread of hearing about the lack of snow in Cork, (this is a snow thread by the way) :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Pangea wrote: »
    We are getting tiread of hearing about the lack of snow in Cork, (this is a snow thread by the way) :P

    i think waterford is de real capital for no snow! we did well in january considering what usually happens. fingers crossed we get something over the weekend. have seen things go wrong so often that i believe it when i see it at this stage.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,827 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Just studying my DP in SLigo and it rarely has reached 0 this yr. Dont know how this graph will look but testing. As for snow bring it on im ready.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭snow ghost


    Harps wrote: »
    Heavy shower again in Letterkenny, just had a look out and everything is pure white again including the roads, looks like we might do well again tonight afterall

    According to Postman Pat & his black and white cat, constant snow - of the we're making everyone else insanely jealous variety - in Donegal in late February, is a sign that it is going to rain constantly there throughout the entire summer while the rest of the country basks in Australian like endless sunshine. :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    tinners wrote: »
    Just having a nice little snow shower in Naas :pac:

    Lucky you. It's piddling rain in Dublin :(:rolleyes:


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,595 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Snowing here atm. Wet. 2.0c DP 0.3c


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    snow ghost wrote: »
    According to Postman Pat & his black and white cat, constant snow - of the we're making everyone else insanely jealous variety - in Donegal in late February, is a sign that it is going to rain constantly there throughout the entire summer while the rest of the country basks in Australian like endless sunshine. :P
    Good job I leave the country every summer to bask in hotter conditions :pac: :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,784 ✭✭✭thomasj


    Heavy snow falling at lamb doyles!


This discussion has been closed.
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