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Big Freeze in early/mid February?

  • 29-01-2010 8:55am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I know this topic is being discussed on a few threads but i thought it might be helpful to pull them into one thread. As I understand it (and I know nothing about weather) its a 50/50 at the moment as to whether there is some proper cold coming from roughly Friday 5 February onwards. What's the present educated guess of those of you more knowledgeable about such things? I know MT Cranium thinks it could happen and I note a few websites such as theweatheroutlook.com are still talking it up. What say you?:confused:


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭200motels


    I know this topic is being discussed on a few threads but i thought it might be helpful to pull them into one thread. As I understand it (and I know nothing about weather) its a 50/50 at the moment as to whether there is some proper cold coming from roughly Friday 5 February onwards. What's the present educated guess of those of you more knowledgeable about such things? I know MT Cranium thinks it could happen and I note a few websites such as theweatheroutlook.com are still talking it up. What say you?:confused:
    It's too far away at the moment, lots of things can change, just check the boards on a regular basis and the experts on here will give you a fair idea of what's going to happen nearer the time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Few hailstones here in Derry this morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Few hailstones here in Derry this morning.

    :confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    :confused:

    Whats with the confused smiley?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    200motels wrote: »
    It's too far away at the moment, lots of things can change, just check the boards on a regular basis and the experts on here will give you a fair idea of what's going to happen nearer the time.

    Yeah UKMO is totally gone pear shaped at T144.
    GFS seems to have got the jitters while ECM is still up for it.
    All up in the air as things stand, no pun intended :o


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Whats with the confused smiley?

    Good chance it's to do with topic Vs post unless hailstones in Derry in Jan is a sign of a big freeze in Feb:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Considering that February is in 3 days time, then it may be a sign of the cold weather coming in.

    Also, just had a phone call from the girlfriend and it's also hail stoning down in Enniskillen...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    Most times hail stones in Ireland are simply a sign of, wait for it.......

    hail stones ! :cool:

    Edit : Except today. Holy cow !


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Bicycle


    We have sunshine here in Limerick at the moment.

    Is this is a sign that Limerick will be bypassed (again :rolleyes:) by any serious snow or is it a portent of a long hot summer?


  • Hosted Moderators Posts: 10,661 ✭✭✭✭John Mason


    light snow on merrion square, dublin 2


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  • Registered Users Posts: 610 ✭✭✭muckish


    Light snow in Dublin! Better watch the 6 o'clock news headlines then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    muckish wrote: »
    Light snow in Dublin! Better watch the 6 o'clock news headlines then.


    Tot i was the only one who seen it!
    Even tough it was wet snow it was still snow!.... (and again theres are full moon out!)

    Dont think M É had anything saying that there would be sleety snow.

    Bring on the BIG FREEZE : PART II


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    No snow here yet in Donegal, good covering on the hills though.
    Freezing cold , it snowed earlier for a while on lower levels .
    Il keep you guys updated.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The trend on the models is quite solid toward much colder conditions in the next 5 - 10 days from the East. The specifics are, of course, uncertain and will be uncertain for a good few days yet.

    But the signs are very cold weather from the East is the most likely outcome in the next 5 - 10 days. Whether that is from a Southeasterly, a Northeasterly or an Easterly remains to be seen.



    gens-0-0-276.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭Snowaddict


    Good Evening everyone,

    The following is an update on the medium term.

    Certainly some very interesting developments taking place at the moment. There has been a significant and sustained warming at the 30mb Level over the North Pole, as indicated in the following graph. Warming continues over the past two days & at this point, we have seen a total warming over the past 5 days approximately of almost 40 Degrees - which is very significant. The timing of the warming is exceptionally similar to that of last year, however we can perhaps expect a different response this time around. Immediate downwelling has occured & over the medium term, there are indications of solid propagation of the Warming to the Tropospheric Level.

    30mb Temperature - North Pole

    pole30_nh.gif

    NWP Guidance

    As many followers of NWP Guidance will know, there has been exceptional uncertainty & change on every consecutive NWP run of each model over the past 3 - 5 days. It is quite likely that developments at the 30mb Level are currently leading to such uncertainty. Even tonight, 29/01/10, Medium term Guidance is very mixed & conditions could well turn increasingly cold as per ECMWF 12Z Operational, or could turn somewhat milder as per UKMO 12Z Operational. There is a marked lack of consistency at the moment & this can be expected to continue for some time yet.

    Charts for Day 10, from both GFS & ECMWF, are consistently modelling a vast or even extreme area of positive height anomolies centred all across the variable North, with a marked Westward progression of a very strong Blocking High over Siberia. A mean variable Easterly flow is indicated across the UK & Ireland, being drawn off an exceptionally cold continent.

    ECMWF T+240 - 29/01/10

    100129_1200_240.png

    NOAA - 14 Day 500MB Prognostic Chart

    The latest NOAA 500MB Height Anomoly Chart, indicates an Extreme area of Hieght anomolies across the Variable North, with multiple centres, persisting towards the North Pole itself, as well as across Greenland & Siberia. A mean Easterly, slightly Northeasterly airflow covers the UK & Ireland. Mean troughing is centred just to the South. These charts are derived with a mixture of both Human Input & Multi Model Guidance. There are some indications that the main core of blocking may transfer even further Westwards toward Day 14 & thereafter.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

    AO & NAO

    Present indications suggest that the Arctic Oscillation has now entered a protracted and increasingly negative phase. In fact, an overall value of -5 or lower is quite possible in the coming 14 Days. This would have parallels with the scale of blocking that took place in early January, quite possibly exceeding it in overall scale. In addition, there are relatively solid indications of a neutral to slightly negative NAO phase over the coming 14 Days, providing just about enough support for a cold phase to develop.

    ao.fcst.gif

    Summary

    In summary then, teleconnections and other background signals continue to support the potential for another cold outbreak, similar to that of 01 - 10 January 2010. However, NWP Guidance is more mixed in this regard & perhaps not as favourable overall. Largescale High Latitude blocking, quite possibly even extreme in nature, is possible over the coming medium term, as a direct response to the exceptional warming that has taken place at the 30mb level. Despite this, there is no guarantee that any cold outbreak will ensue across the UK & Ireland, but the potential is certainly there as we prepare to enter the final month in which deep & severe cold is still possible on a sustained basis.

    SA :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    18z GFS at 138 - trigger low and Siberian High in posistion;)

    Rtavn1441.png



    162 hours, freeze begins

    Rtavn1621.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    well, this will be a test of the upgrade to the ECMWF. it would be a real kick in the teeth if the ukmo evolution proves to be correct. I bet over at met eireann they are hoping it is correct:P


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Evolution is now well within the more reliable timeframe

    :o

    Rtavn2042.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    I think we can safely say a National emergency is declared at this point ;)

    Rtavn2162.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Looks good , Still a long way to go, I gona take this with some salt. :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Looks good , Still a long way to go, I gona take this with some salt. :P

    well there is plenty around now. you don't need to be so sparing- or do we;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    Up and down like hoors droors...:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    I am hoping to see an upgrade in the ECM charts tomorrow regarding this potential easterly, because I find nothing encouraging in tonight's run, although I just briefly glanced. As much as I can see, I see nothing but the continuation of the same pointless, non-descript crap we have currently endured over the last 2 weeks for the foreseeable. Looks more interesting towards the end of the run for sure, but that is where the interest seems to be remaining over the last few runs. More runs needed of course to see if a trend is being locked onto, but at this stage, I am far from encouraged. The last few Jan's have been soft and gentle, but this one takes the cookie. It is like living in the doldrums. It is like all weather has stopped, just the same thing everyday. Typical that such a non-descript pattern should last the longest.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I am hoping to see an upgrade in the ECM charts tomorrow regarding this potential easterly, because I find nothing encouraging in tonight's run, although I just briefly glanced. As much as I can see, I see nothing but the continuation of the same pointless, non-descript crap we have currently endured over the last 2 weeks for the foreseeable. Looks more interesting towards the end of the run for sure, but that is where the interest seems to be remaining over the last few runs. More runs needed of course to see if a trend is being locked onto, but at this stage, I am far from encouraged. The last few Jan's have been soft and gentle, but this one takes the cookie. It is like living in the doldrums. It is like all weather has stopped, just the same thing everyday. Typical that such a non-descript pattern should last the longest.

    you are like these two;)
    [IMG][/img]emo-catdog.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Don't push your luck Nacho Libre. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    it would be funny if, afterall the bashing, the ukmo turned out to be right about what's ahead for February and the other models then followed suit...

    Joe Bastardi:

    FRIDAY 11 PM LONDON TIME

    A THEORY ON WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE CLIMATE MODELS.

    The Us generated CFS for the month of January on its last "nowcast" had most of the US more than 5 above normal for the month on January. Nothing could be farther from the truth in reality. A spot check of 16 selected cities I use for my monthly verifications to my clients had the forecasted temp for January for the combination of all cities at 5.6 above normal ( The January run came off on the 21st) Much better was its Jan 10th forecast which they are using in the archives ( good thing), but it was still a bit too warm across the north. But the point is it was out of control. The actual Temp of all the cities to approximate the nations temps: -.25! In fact only one major city in the sample, Seattle is as warm as the model says ( plus 6.2) Balancing that off is Orlando at -7 This is not as cold as December which was a bit over -3. But I showed that for you on the Long Ranger, how warm the climate model was for January.

    Now lest you think I am picking on NOAA, lets go to the UKMET. There is no where in Europe it has Below normal forecasted for Jan through March on its forecast. It is as bad there, as the CFS was with its nowcast. This is going to be a top 5 cold winter in eastern Europe, giving a different meaning to the cold war... because after this winter people will be at war with anyone shoving global warming down their throats. And one of the things I told Europeans in the prewinter period , and even said in on the Imus show here in the states, when this winter is done, no one is going to want to here about this.

    But is this on purpose.. for Instance the UKMET folks made a boast that 2010 would be the hottest on record. I responded by saying not unless someone is cooking the books. But there must be something they are trusting in their modeling to say that. ( By the way the earths temps can be seen in the objective satellite guidance found here: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer

    So here is my theory 1) All climate models are essentially the same. Why? Well they each have their own way of development based on physics but what happens is that the modelers watch the other models and adapt the strengths they see in the other models. Two models may be different at one time, in their early stages, but upgrades taking from other models essentially start to blend them all together. In the end, they all see about the same thing, because they have evolved through the years. This is Bill Grays theory and I think he is right.

    But point 2) Is where I take over. The models have been developed in a period of warm PDO, then warm AMO with high solar constant. Such things can not be "modeled in". Instead the model is forced to react to something it can not approximate and is forced to play catch up. When the atmosphere was warming in reaction to these un modeled driver, it probably had a cold bias. Modelers may have been forced to adjust to the this to improve the model skill scores. But they adjusted based on RESULTS. not the true CAUSES OF THE ERRORS!

    Now what happens when we start taking away the drivers that may have been causing the warming. The PDO turns cold.. low solar constants have taken over, the AMO is going to turn cold in 10-15 years,. and then the wild card is seismic activity which causes increased volcanism and may be a by product of the low solar activity. Where do you think the bias will be? Its intuitive, it WOULD BE OPPOSITE.. A WARM BIAS!

    Now, something I have been talking about in the debate, the lack of warming in the tropics and the drop in specific humidity, which is something that limits tropical activity, since drier air over the tropics means a storm has to "work" harder to develop.. as the pumping of moisture into the high levels would cool the air more than usual. It was part and parcel of why this was not a big year in the atlantic, or anywhere, not the el nino, as if it was el nino driven, one would have seen a marked increase in the Pacific. But now we here the global warming crowd saying, well its drying a bit, that is why its not warming. That it is drying in the stratosphere is even better ( they havent even acknowledged their bust in the troposphere over the tropics, the real smoking gun). it means the stratosphere is not cooling as they said it would ( Dr. Tiffany Shaw has bravely gone where no one else would go on this, and pointed this out in her research!) And they cant explain it?

    Sometimes I think they are blundering, and they dont even know it. Lets assume that was the answer, dont they understand that this means the co2 argument is done?. You are admitting that there is something bigger that is in control, and its not co2. That others have known this before, is of course not mentioned, The think by saying that, they will be able to justify the cooling and then say co2 will still be a problem. But how can it be the problem if you are telling us that water vapor increases or decreases are responsible ( which is much more likely than co 2) You can t have it both ways. So you have killed your own argument. Which is what others have done with the sunspot cycle. If they chuckle with glee if sunspots come roaring back to life because it means the earths temps may go up, then you are admitting that its the sunspots are the drivers.

    Now I will again state my position, so we understand. I think we are going to get our answer in the next 20-30 years, that these large scale drivers that models cant handle and can only react to, not forecast, will have their day. If the earth cools by objective Satellite measurements, not nasa or Giss or NOAA or whoever playing around ( the temps when we started measuring and the total sea ice when we started measuring in the late 70s) the its obvious I and many like me are right, that it is not a big deal. If it doesnt, then maybe c02 would be a problem but many many decades from now, especially in light of doubling co2 would have a greater positive effect on food growth to feed people... something I think we are all in favor of. In the meantime, if its going to get warm, these models can see it. If its going to be cold, they are helpless.

    I think I have a good argument as to why, if you simply follow the evidence.

    ciao for now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    GFS 0z

    YUK . Atlantic is eye of the tiger
    Needs to take a long holiday


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    a long way out in F.I,and as allready said looks like we are just in for the same as we have been getting for a long time allready,dreary non event weather,temps on charts for sunday week look much the same as now just below freezing at nite and a few above dureing the day.....
    am i missing something?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    jambofc wrote: »
    a long way out in F.I,and as allready said looks like we are just in for the same as we have been getting for a long time allready,dreary non event weather,temps on charts for sunday week look much the same as now just below freezing at nite and a few above dureing the day.....
    am i missing something?

    No :( yesterday's 18z GFS looked amazing...but atlantic looking the fav today.
    Could all change again by this evening though but UKMO are holding firm on no easterly.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,533 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    start panicking if the new and improved ecm follows suit.

    although admittedly with the gfs now backtracking on proper cold taking hold it doesn't look good.


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