Big Freeze in early/mid February?

force eleven

redsunset wrote: »

Whats this about 18 years or so cycles???:D


Would be gas if the UKMO chart verified to something like that of feb 91

Shame it was 19 years ago then....;)

Redsunset

force eleven wrote: »

Shame it was 19 years ago then....;)

Its an 18.8 year cycle thats why i put or so.:D

WolfeIRE

Latest UKMO for wed lunchtime



Thursday GFS

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

As usual, you are the voice of reason SA! . I think we are well overdue one of those once in a 20 year Polar Continental events. Frosty weather will be welcomed however, but I am becoming a little bored with all that. I want a real easterly, or a violent Atlantic storm; those would finish off this most unusual winter nicely!

i couldn't agree more paddy1. personally i'm tired of hearing about the great falls of yesteryear from other people. i want to experience something similar to those events. however, based on the charts posted that's not going to happen this year. so the wait goes on:(. still to get some snow is not to be sniffed at, but it's just that i share your craving for something extreme.

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

it's just i share your craving for something extreme.

This latest model run will see to that nacho http://www.tripadvisor.com/Flights-g154952-Churchill_Manitoba-Cheap_Discount_Airfares.html

To be honest, when we do get that major event, it ll have been worth the wait. If we did live in churchill we would be on boards.ca praying for milder weather. It's all the more special for us when we do see a major event so keep in mind that 'good things come to those who wait'. How long that wait is....

WolfeIRE

Another great tool that reflects the latest model outputs. This shows wind, pressure, sea temp.

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=wind&starttime=1265241600

doccy

So the rollercoaster has one last run left this winter then

Min

I hate very cold weather.

I hate having to work out in very cold weather.

I hate having to defrost frozen pipes.

I hate the extra work it brings.

I hate having to walk unnaturally due to ice.

I hate being cut off with the roads too dangerous.

However I did say more than two days ago we will have cold easterly winds next week and I told people that, then Evelyn contradicted me before agreeing.
I do like being right though and I haven't changed opinion on the cold weather coming :P

Redsunset

I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS run.....yet.

Up to 60hr it still contains correct building blocks.

Im ignoring past that for now.

If ECM does not upgrade and UKMO downgrades well then it could be a sad affair.

00z GFS could be interesting

Deep Easterly

redsunset wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much about the 18z GFS run.....yet.

Another nerdy thing I have noticed over the last while is that the 18z GFS often shows identical synoptics to what the previous 12z ECMWF model showed the 30hrs before! Up to 144hrs on tonight's 18z, once again very similar to yesterday's ECM 12z. So on the score I'd not worry too much either.

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

This latest model run will see to that nacho http://www.tripadvisor.com/Flights-g154952-Churchill_Manitoba-Cheap_Discount_Airfares.html

To be honest, when we do get that major event, it ll have been worth the wait. If we did live in churchill we would be on boards.ca praying for milder weather. It's all the more special for us when we do see a major event so keep in mind that 'good things come to those who wait'. How long that wait is....

lol. i've been in the state of Manitoba before during winter. guess what!? it was unusually mild while i was there:pac:

true enough, but why oh why snow gods do you make us wait...:mad:

Deep Easterly

ECM slack and increasingly chilly this morning, although still not suggesting anything overly spectacular regarding temps. Risk increasing also of shortwaves running to the north of the sinking high at 144hrs.

200motels

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Another great tool that reflects the latest model outputs. This shows wind, pressure, sea temp.

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=wind&starttime=1265241600

Great site.

Redsunset

Boring weather returns
Storms to our left,blizzards to our right.
Stuck in the classic no mans land for now.

redsunset

redsunset wrote: »

Boring weather returns
Storms to our left,blizzards to our right.
Stuck in the classic no mans land for now.

Rofl...
I'm not going to comment on any of the run specifics [I said I wouldn't] but I'll repeat what I said over the past days.
I'm not trusting any model output beyond 96hrs in the current flip flop ever changing mood they are in.

Just read the last 7 or 8 pages if you want proof of why...
Ecstatic then glum
Ecstatic then glum and thats just the flips of this past week...

I have my own hunches as to whats going to happen but I ain't sharing them.

Be warey of models that keep the good stuff a week away though-thats never a good sign.
If it's meant to be here next wenesday and the models flip it into fi and make it wenesday forthnight...then they are only showing up what they are good for at the moment and thats short term forecasting sub 96.

My next comment comes after the country tracks forecast on BBC one Sunday.
I suggest ye sky plus it

Redsunset

Well i too am rolling on the floor laughing.

Im not going beyond 90 hrs either.

That why i said boring for now.

Personally i don't think anything is going to come from this for ireland

Rebelbrowser

Met Eireann don't sound convinced either, but seeing as they were forecasting westerlys and mild weather 36 hours ago its progress!

"Early next week : Cold and bright each day, with sunny spells in many places. But winds will be moderate to fresh east to northeasterly, and some light wintry showers are possible on exposed eastern coasts. Very cold at night, with lowest temperatures -3 to -5 C., inland. So frost will be sharp to severe, with icy surfaces, and with some fog in places also. "

I remain blissfully optimistic coz its better than the alternative. If we are all enjoying 15cm snow drifts next week I want to say I was in on the ground floor. To those of you knowledgeable about weather who (undoubtedly correctly) say that other less interesting outcomes are more probable I appreciate how the attitude of gormless no nothing wish-merchants like me must grind on you but I mean no harm, honest!

All that having been said, I agree that if the easterlies aren't in the UK by Monday then forget it...the more it gets pushed out, the less credible it is.

patneve2

If what the models forecast comes to be then it'll be bitterly cold next week with highs of 2-4 degrees (highs of 0 degrees with the presence of fog) and very frosty nights (possibly as low as -6). If the HP moves a bit away from us (preferably to the NW) then its bingo and we're in snow territory again. What I've noticed from through my 'weather observation years' is that a dry cold snap (usually) eventually leads to some snow. I'd highlight the days that go from the 12th of February to the 16th of February...;)

nacho libre

I can't say i'm surprised. there'd never be a major upgrade by the models, even if there was it would too good to be true anyway. That's definitely the case when it comes to major snowfall here. Nine times out of 10 it won't happen. i suppose one crumb of comfort is there hasn't been a complete backtrack about it getting colder, but once again it looks like England will get the best out of this cold spell:mad:

so the wait goes on for a significant snow event to affect lower levels across the country:(

Redsunset

I've just noticed something on the zonal wind charts and somewhat changes my perspective a little.

Could be a load of Bollox but just maybe an extended cold period is in motion.
View strat warming thread to see what crap im talking about.

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

I've just noticed something on the zonal wind charts and somewhat changes my perspective a little.

Could be a load of Bollox but just maybe an extended cold period is in motion.
View strat warming thread to see what crap im talking about.

perhaps you could clarify something in relation to that, over on netweather some people were saying that the high to the northwest will likely sink in over us, rather than eventually retrogressing(?) northwards, due to insufficient warming in the stratosphere.

do you think this is now unlikely based on your latest post?

Redsunset

nacho libre wrote: »

perhaps you could clarify something in relation to that, over on netweather some people were saying that the high to the northwest will likely sink in over us, rather than eventually retrogressing(?) northwards, due to insufficient warming in the stratosphere.

do you think this is now unlikely based on your latest post?

yes I think there is a much greater chance of increased heights later.

Just where is question.

A high could sit over us for a time before getting on its bike toward greenland and probably end up west based sitting between eastern canada and greenland.

There probably will be icelandic heights too attached.

Too early yet but this seems to be a step in the right direction

patneve2

GFS 12Z much better (so far) than 06Z . . .

spideog7

Pittsburgh, PA Weather Forecast wrote:

Rest of Today
A chance of snow late this morning...then snow this afternoon. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tonight
Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Saturday
Snow in the morning...then snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation 8 to 12 inches. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Just checked the radar and it should be here in about 10 minutes. Right now it's dry and frosty and it's beautiful, I don't want sloppy snow... except for sledding!

Redsunset

IRELAND, Weather Forecast
Rest of Today
A chance of rain late this morning...then rain this afternoon. rain accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Near steady temperature in the lower 60s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tonight
Rain. Rain may be heavy at times. Additional rain accumulation 4 to 8 inches. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Saturday
rain in the morning...then rain showers in the afternoon. Total RAIN accumulation 8 to 12 inches. Near steady temperature in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

thecretinhop

Just seen two salters salting coming out of galway city, very weird..

owenc

thecretinhop wrote: »

Just seen two salters salting coming out of galway city, very weird..

whats weird about that ive seen them nearly every week since december?...

owenc

owenc wrote: »

whats weird about that ive seen them nearly every week since december?...

well you are in the "united kingdom"...they've a bigger cheque book for the salt...

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

well you are in the "united kingdom"...they've a bigger cheque book for the salt...

Here we go jealousy strikes once more

nacho libre

ah it's hard not to be jealous when you're hoarding all the snow for yourself;)