Big Freeze in early/mid February?

WolfeIRE

Hi folks,

Sorry been away for a while for work reasons.

It certainly looks like we are in for a very cold spell (at least 3-5 days) from late Tuesday next week.

Been keeping an eye on the models over the past 48 hours and they is a general consensus that cold air will spread from the NE/E. Snowfall is likely in the east and north in particular but there could be a more significnat event if the atlantic systems come into contact with some very cold air.




Joe the Bastardi is also now calling it http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=netweather

As is WO http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead



The UKMO (via BBC) also say the cold will return
http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209/

nacho libre

Welcome back WolfeIRE:)


so this is what he says:
WEDNESDAY 6 PM

REPORTS OF WINTERS DEMISE GREATLY EXAGGERATED

Let me be gentle to some of you emailing me that winter is over.

The WORST of it is.. I stated we would be back and forth in northwest Europe, and it would be colder than normal, but the worst of winter when it's all said and done will be where we had it. But since this is supposedly the coldest Dec-Jan in Scotland, it better darn well be not as cold as it was. But it's not over, and the back-and-forth is working just fine.

of course it's quite possible we will be in the exclusion zone and england gets the good stuff. afterall his column is mainly written with Britain in mind. still it's great to see that update from him.

wolf-have you forgotten that models need to be showing this consistently for a lot more than 2 days before they can be trusted?
Have you not noticed how unreliable they have been at the range you have quoted there?
Unreliable for ages now.

If you were away for a while and had forgotten this and hadn't been in a position of see'ing how badly they have been performing at +120hrs and more-let me tell you they are a lot worse now.

So no certainty at all there yet.

darkman2

Things are no where near set in stone yet. Just been going through the GFS ensembles and plenty of them sink the High Pressure to the North. There are some spectacular ones too but overall probrably not as cold as the 12z ensembles in the higher resolution timeframe.


So whilst things look favourable for colder weather it still has to be determined how severe and long lasting it will be. Also alot can change in the space of 6 hours!;)

WolfeIRE

Hey Briar, Darkman and Nacho

Been checking in on boards and the charts myself in recent weeks. You are correct in what you say about the models in recent days in particular.

Along with GFS and ECMF,The vast majority of the models have fallen into line since this morning i.e past 3-4 runs.

Here is the JMA


gem


and NOGAPS

Theres no such thing as falling into line.
Post 120,they were telling us last week that I'd be digging out the snow today...
I'm not.
So making definitive statements on post 120 now is not the thing to do.

people always get sucked in too early and even more so in the current chopping changing environment.

WolfeIRE

well then it's time for me to get sucked in and be proved to have been a sucker. I am going for a cold spell next week that will put last weekend's piece of piddle in the shade. By falling into line, by the way, I mean they are indicating similar trends. On no occasion as far as I can remember last week or in the past 2-3 weeks have the models indicated such similar outputs for +120 period. That entrenched cold in the east hasn't gone away you know. It's just been taking a break.

Well ok then but...
Don't be disappointed.
Joe Bastardi has been wrong more often regarding this part of the world than right.
Weather online is just reflecting outputs.

And you are wrong.
post 120 a week and more ago was on many models at times throwing up super cold for this week and earlier..
In fact if some post 120 models had verified -Dublin airport and gatwick would have closed last week.
We all know what actually happened..

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

So whilst things look favourable for colder weather it still has to be determined how severe and long lasting it will be. Also alot can change in the space of 6 hours!;)

Wise words.

Looking at the latest GFS, it does seem that if the cooler spell does happen, then it won't be a long lasting as the earlier one. We'll see, we need to get the cool spell going first to see what happens thereafter.

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

W
And you are wrong.
post 120 a week and more ago was on many models at times throwing up super cold for this week and earlier..
In fact if some post 120 models had verified -Dublin airport and gatwick would have closed last week.
We all know what actually happened..

Ok. Sounds like this a thorny issue for you, excuse the pun. My enthusiasm is in greater abundance than my meteorological knowledge.

Of course, everything can change in 6 hours but the last 24 hours have showed a very definite trend towards a cold outbreak in outputs. It's easy for me to come on here after a few weeks away and be more enthusiastic about model outputs. All the regulars here have been burnt by failing models in recent weeks, i am hoping I won't.

Deep Easterly

I posted in the Model Outlook thread earlier that the DWD model is not agreeing with the latest ECM 12z. I would be a lot more confident if it was as statistically, it is one of the top model runs going. When the ECM and DWD contradict one another like that post 96hrs, then nothing can be nailed on.

This has to be on of the most tense and remarkable periods in model watching ever. I have never witness such daily changes at such short range. If we end up with moist SW winds and wind blown drizzle after all this, there will be hell to pay!

@ wolf

heh you will :pac:

Just being realistic.
Forecasters have to be objective and they don't usually run with forecasts more than 4 days out with recent uncertainty.

I was surprised Eveylyn ran a chart tonight out to next wenesday portraying mild too...that was very brave :eek: and if I may say so will be forgotten as it's not likely either to be what verifies.
I'm not ruling out cold but it's touch and go what way this swings yet.
Sunday will tell the tale of next week anyway.
after that who knows..

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

Well ok then but...
Don't be disappointed.
Joe Bastardi has been wrong more often regarding this part of the world than right.
Weather online is just reflecting outputs.

And you are wrong.
post 120 a week and more ago was on many models at times throwing up super cold for this week and earlier..
In fact if some post 120 models had verified -Dublin airport and gatwick would have closed last week.
We all know what actually happened..

while that maybe true in the past, this winter he has been spot on so far.
still i'm not getting carried away. what i forsee happening is more of the same- flirtations with the cold but the potent cold that will deliver snow never gets here. it seems this time we are just on the wrong side of the dividing line. if the core of the cold had been over england, rather than where it is presently, this could have been a classic winter throughout.

H2UMrsRobinson

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Ok. Sounds like this a thorny issue for you, excuse the pun. My enthusiasm is in greater abundance than my meteorological knowledge.

Of course, everything can change in 6 hours but the last 24 hours have showed a very definite trend towards a cold outbreak in outputs. It's easy for me to come on here after a few weeks away and be more enthusiastic about model outputs. All the regulars here have been burnt by failing models in recent weeks, i am hoping I won't.

The journey is sometimes better than the destination. Feet on the ground or head in the clouds? I'll take the clouds anyday.:rolleyes:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Wise words.

Looking at the latest GFS, it does seem that if the cooler spell does happen, then it won't be a long lasting as the earlier one. We'll see, we need to get the cool spell going first to see what happens thereafter.

just listening to the late night forecast evelyn is still sticking with low pressure dominating next week.

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

while that maybe true in the past, this winter he has been spot on so far.
still i'm not getting carried away. what i forsee happening is more of the same- flirtations with the cold but the potent cold that will deliver snow never gets here. it seems this time we are just on the wrong side of the dividing line. if the core of the cold had been over england, rather than where it is presently, this could have been a classic winter throughout.

Ach though,Joe had it a lot easier in the last cold spell there-he's been just as hyperbolic in recent winters with little results in our neck of the woods.
He's a nice read but a better read when you know yourself that he's onto a sure thing.He puts fun into his descriptional forecasts.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Wise words.

Looking at the latest GFS, it does seem that if the cooler spell does happen, then it won't be a long lasting as the earlier one..

well, that was never likely anyway. any cold from now on will brief compared to the so-called big-freeze. the positive thing with regard any meeting of airmasses in another cold spell would be with the ssts being lower marginal situations could work in our favour this time unlike the last cold spell.

darkman2

Deleted User wrote: »

@ wolf

heh you will :pac:

Just being realistic.
Forecasters have to be objective and they don't usually run with forecasts more than 4 days out with recent uncertainty.

I was surprised Eveylyn ran a chart tonight out to next wenesday portraying mild too...that was very brave :eek: and if I may say so will be forgotten as it's not likely either to be what verifies.
I'm not ruling out cold but it's touch and go what way this swings yet.
Sunday will tell the tale of next week anyway.
after that who knows..

Probrably, in fact definately, from the 00z ECM which is of course void now.

WolfeIRE

well he is eccentric and hides his actual forecasts deep within a web of bladder talk.

Either way, the way you are all talking about the chances of a cold spell happening are akin to the likelihood of fireballs being seen in the Irish sky. Erm...

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

just listening to the late night forecast evelyn is still sticking with low pressure dominating next week.

I wouldn't worry about that even, as she is basing her forecast on the 00z ECMWF run, which was for average temps and the odd bit of rain for next week. Chances are, the met eireann updated forecast on their website tomorrow morning will be based on the latest run, regardless of what the next 00z will show.

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

the chances of a cold spell happening are akin to the likelihood of fireballs being seen in the Irish sky. Erm...

Did anyone actually see that fireball? I didn't, although I wasn't looking. Apparantly, it landed somewhere in Cavan.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

Ach though,Joe had it a lot easier in the last cold spell there-he's been just as hyperbolic in recent winters with little results in our neck of the woods.
He's a nice read but a better read when you know yourself that he's onto a sure thing.He puts fun into his descriptional forecasts.

but in fairness he was the only one to call the so-called "big freeze" if i'm not mistaken when others were going for a mild winter. though i see your point if you have a bias toward cold/"a cold monger" you'll end up right eventually;)
it'll be interesting to see if he right about it taking as long as the first week in march for the block to be completely dismantled.
as you say, no matter his forecasts, he is entertaining to read.

WolfeIRE

Here you go Deep. The Donegal Postman says a meteorite on Feb 3rd means a cold spell in middle of February:p

and this http://www.facebook.com/search/?q=meteorite+hit+ireland+03+feb+10&init=quick#!/pages/meteorite-hit-ireland-03-feb-10/464961675437?ref=search&sid=100000745931493.3380769901..1

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

well he is eccentric and hides his actual forecasts deep within a web of bladder talk.

Either way, the way you are all talking about the chances of a cold spell happening are akin to the likelihood of fireballs being seen in the Irish sky. Erm...

hahas yes that 'fireball was quite something. while fascinating, it's sort of worrying in a way:(

Agreed DM.

Lol but it's funny,that isn't the first time I've seen ME go out on a limb on just one run.
I think that unwise.

Mind you they don't do that when one run says deep cold..
Imagine if she did that lol

Imagine if forecasters were allowed to behave like us and viewers got a real taste of cold ramping and every now and again a run [that ends up not verifying] is used and Eveyln says after the 9 news.."Ladies and gentlemen we're in for a treat next week... 20 ft deep snow drifts and highs of -10c.." with a woo hoo sound in her voice..
lol thats what we do from time to time..
Imagine what would happen if thats what Eveyln started to do :pac::p:pac:

There would be raised eyebrows for a while followed by Eveylyn needing a new job.

WolfeIRE

Deleted User wrote: »

Imagine if forecasters were allowed to behave like us and viwers got a real taste of cold ramping and every now and again a run [that ends up not verifying] is used and Eveyln says after the 9 news.."Ladies and gentlemen we're in for a treat next week... 20 ft deep snow drifts and highs of -10c.." with a woo hoo sound in her voice..
lol thats what we do from time to time..

hehe. If I was asked to do tomorrow's forecast - nothing major, i'd take the 3.05 slot in place of the wide hipped one. I think I would say something like this

Deep Easterly

Here is the ECM temp anomaly forecast for the Feb to April period:



Source: http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/sog/index-2.htm

Unfortunately, most of Ireland not included, but suggests near average, albeit in the positive, conditions for the 3 month period ahead. The higher anoms over southern Scandinavia suggests that the block may not be moving for some time to come. I would not discount this forecast map fully, as synoptically, the winter ECM forecast has been fairly spot on, although so far, temps were forecast to be higher than what has happened so far.

nacho libre

yes, i'd say the met eireann people if they read this forum must find it amusing. so Evelyn if you happen to be reading this, i just want you to know you're still my favourite forecaster:D

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, i'd say the met eireann people if they read this forum must find it amusing. so Evelyn if you happen to be reading this, i just want you to know you're still my favourite forecaster:D

Picnic for two on Glasnevin Hill is beckoning. While Eveyln gets all giddy when snow is on the way, I do like the Eagle myself. You always feel like you can trust him. Saying that, I would never allow him to babysit my kids. He would forever be looking out the window at the weather.

There was a ce regged car seen outside earlier amd my stash of rioja is missing...