Big Freeze in early/mid February?

Rebelbrowser

I know this topic is being discussed on a few threads but i thought it might be helpful to pull them into one thread. As I understand it (and I know nothing about weather) its a 50/50 at the moment as to whether there is some proper cold coming from roughly Friday 5 February onwards. What's the present educated guess of those of you more knowledgeable about such things? I know MT Cranium thinks it could happen and I note a few websites such as theweatheroutlook.com are still talking it up. What say you?

200motels

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know this topic is being discussed on a few threads but i thought it might be helpful to pull them into one thread. As I understand it (and I know nothing about weather) its a 50/50 at the moment as to whether there is some proper cold coming from roughly Friday 5 February onwards. What's the present educated guess of those of you more knowledgeable about such things? I know MT Cranium thinks it could happen and I note a few websites such as theweatheroutlook.com are still talking it up. What say you?

It's too far away at the moment, lots of things can change, just check the boards on a regular basis and the experts on here will give you a fair idea of what's going to happen nearer the time.

tylercollins

Few hailstones here in Derry this morning.

Speak Now

tylercollins wrote: »

Few hailstones here in Derry this morning.

tylercollins

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Whats with the confused smiley?

Speak Now

200motels wrote: »

It's too far away at the moment, lots of things can change, just check the boards on a regular basis and the experts on here will give you a fair idea of what's going to happen nearer the time.

Yeah UKMO is totally gone pear shaped at T144.
GFS seems to have got the jitters while ECM is still up for it.
All up in the air as things stand, no pun intended

Joe Public

tylercollins wrote: »

Whats with the confused smiley?

Good chance it's to do with topic Vs post unless hailstones in Derry in Jan is a sign of a big freeze in Feb:rolleyes:

tylercollins

Considering that February is in 3 days time, then it may be a sign of the cold weather coming in.

Also, just had a phone call from the girlfriend and it's also hail stoning down in Enniskillen...

Not

Most times hail stones in Ireland are simply a sign of, wait for it.......

hail stones ! :cool:

Edit : Except today. Holy cow !

Bicycle

We have sunshine here in Limerick at the moment.

Is this is a sign that Limerick will be bypassed (again :rolleyes:) by any serious snow or is it a portent of a long hot summer?

John Mason

light snow on merrion square, dublin 2

muckish

Light snow in Dublin! Better watch the 6 o'clock news headlines then.

Iancar29

muckish wrote: »

Light snow in Dublin! Better watch the 6 o'clock news headlines then.

Tot i was the only one who seen it!
Even tough it was wet snow it was still snow!.... (and again theres are full moon out!)

Dont think M É had anything saying that there would be sleety snow.

Bring on the BIG FREEZE : PART II

Pangea

No snow here yet in Donegal, good covering on the hills though.
Freezing cold , it snowed earlier for a while on lower levels .
Il keep you guys updated.

darkman2

The trend on the models is quite solid toward much colder conditions in the next 5 - 10 days from the East. The specifics are, of course, uncertain and will be uncertain for a good few days yet.

But the signs are very cold weather from the East is the most likely outcome in the next 5 - 10 days. Whether that is from a Southeasterly, a Northeasterly or an Easterly remains to be seen.

Snowaddict

Good Evening everyone,

The following is an update on the medium term.

Certainly some very interesting developments taking place at the moment. There has been a significant and sustained warming at the 30mb Level over the North Pole, as indicated in the following graph. Warming continues over the past two days & at this point, we have seen a total warming over the past 5 days approximately of almost 40 Degrees - which is very significant. The timing of the warming is exceptionally similar to that of last year, however we can perhaps expect a different response this time around. Immediate downwelling has occured & over the medium term, there are indications of solid propagation of the Warming to the Tropospheric Level.

30mb Temperature - North Pole



NWP Guidance

As many followers of NWP Guidance will know, there has been exceptional uncertainty & change on every consecutive NWP run of each model over the past 3 - 5 days. It is quite likely that developments at the 30mb Level are currently leading to such uncertainty. Even tonight, 29/01/10, Medium term Guidance is very mixed & conditions could well turn increasingly cold as per ECMWF 12Z Operational, or could turn somewhat milder as per UKMO 12Z Operational. There is a marked lack of consistency at the moment & this can be expected to continue for some time yet.

Charts for Day 10, from both GFS & ECMWF, are consistently modelling a vast or even extreme area of positive height anomolies centred all across the variable North, with a marked Westward progression of a very strong Blocking High over Siberia. A mean variable Easterly flow is indicated across the UK & Ireland, being drawn off an exceptionally cold continent.

ECMWF T+240 - 29/01/10



NOAA - 14 Day 500MB Prognostic Chart

The latest NOAA 500MB Height Anomoly Chart, indicates an Extreme area of Hieght anomolies across the Variable North, with multiple centres, persisting towards the North Pole itself, as well as across Greenland & Siberia. A mean Easterly, slightly Northeasterly airflow covers the UK & Ireland. Mean troughing is centred just to the South. These charts are derived with a mixture of both Human Input & Multi Model Guidance. There are some indications that the main core of blocking may transfer even further Westwards toward Day 14 & thereafter.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

AO & NAO

Present indications suggest that the Arctic Oscillation has now entered a protracted and increasingly negative phase. In fact, an overall value of -5 or lower is quite possible in the coming 14 Days. This would have parallels with the scale of blocking that took place in early January, quite possibly exceeding it in overall scale. In addition, there are relatively solid indications of a neutral to slightly negative NAO phase over the coming 14 Days, providing just about enough support for a cold phase to develop.



Summary

In summary then, teleconnections and other background signals continue to support the potential for another cold outbreak, similar to that of 01 - 10 January 2010. However, NWP Guidance is more mixed in this regard & perhaps not as favourable overall. Largescale High Latitude blocking, quite possibly even extreme in nature, is possible over the coming medium term, as a direct response to the exceptional warming that has taken place at the 30mb level. Despite this, there is no guarantee that any cold outbreak will ensue across the UK & Ireland, but the potential is certainly there as we prepare to enter the final month in which deep & severe cold is still possible on a sustained basis.

SA

darkman2

18z GFS at 138 - trigger low and Siberian High in posistion;)





162 hours, freeze begins

nacho libre

well, this will be a test of the upgrade to the ECMWF. it would be a real kick in the teeth if the ukmo evolution proves to be correct. I bet over at met eireann they are hoping it is correct:P

darkman2

Evolution is now well within the more reliable timeframe

darkman2

I think we can safely say a National emergency is declared at this point

Pangea

Looks good , Still a long way to go, I gona take this with some salt. :P

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Looks good , Still a long way to go, I gona take this with some salt. :P

well there is plenty around now. you don't need to be so sparing- or do we;)

H2UMrsRobinson

Up and down like hoors droors...:D

Deep Easterly

I am hoping to see an upgrade in the ECM charts tomorrow regarding this potential easterly, because I find nothing encouraging in tonight's run, although I just briefly glanced. As much as I can see, I see nothing but the continuation of the same pointless, non-descript crap we have currently endured over the last 2 weeks for the foreseeable. Looks more interesting towards the end of the run for sure, but that is where the interest seems to be remaining over the last few runs. More runs needed of course to see if a trend is being locked onto, but at this stage, I am far from encouraged. The last few Jan's have been soft and gentle, but this one takes the cookie. It is like living in the doldrums. It is like all weather has stopped, just the same thing everyday. Typical that such a non-descript pattern should last the longest.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am hoping to see an upgrade in the ECM charts tomorrow regarding this potential easterly, because I find nothing encouraging in tonight's run, although I just briefly glanced. As much as I can see, I see nothing but the continuation of the same pointless, non-descript crap we have currently endured over the last 2 weeks for the foreseeable. Looks more interesting towards the end of the run for sure, but that is where the interest seems to be remaining over the last few runs. More runs needed of course to see if a trend is being locked onto, but at this stage, I am far from encouraged. The last few Jan's have been soft and gentle, but this one takes the cookie. It is like living in the doldrums. It is like all weather has stopped, just the same thing everyday. Typical that such a non-descript pattern should last the longest.

you are like these two;)
[IMG][/img]

Deep Easterly

Don't push your luck Nacho Libre.

nacho libre

it would be funny if, afterall the bashing, the ukmo turned out to be right about what's ahead for February and the other models then followed suit...

Joe Bastardi:

FRIDAY 11 PM LONDON TIME

A THEORY ON WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE CLIMATE MODELS.

The Us generated CFS for the month of January on its last "nowcast" had most of the US more than 5 above normal for the month on January. Nothing could be farther from the truth in reality. A spot check of 16 selected cities I use for my monthly verifications to my clients had the forecasted temp for January for the combination of all cities at 5.6 above normal ( The January run came off on the 21st) Much better was its Jan 10th forecast which they are using in the archives ( good thing), but it was still a bit too warm across the north. But the point is it was out of control. The actual Temp of all the cities to approximate the nations temps: -.25! In fact only one major city in the sample, Seattle is as warm as the model says ( plus 6.2) Balancing that off is Orlando at -7 This is not as cold as December which was a bit over -3. But I showed that for you on the Long Ranger, how warm the climate model was for January.

Now lest you think I am picking on NOAA, lets go to the UKMET. There is no where in Europe it has Below normal forecasted for Jan through March on its forecast. It is as bad there, as the CFS was with its nowcast. This is going to be a top 5 cold winter in eastern Europe, giving a different meaning to the cold war... because after this winter people will be at war with anyone shoving global warming down their throats. And one of the things I told Europeans in the prewinter period , and even said in on the Imus show here in the states, when this winter is done, no one is going to want to here about this.

But is this on purpose.. for Instance the UKMET folks made a boast that 2010 would be the hottest on record. I responded by saying not unless someone is cooking the books. But there must be something they are trusting in their modeling to say that. ( By the way the earths temps can be seen in the objective satellite guidance found here: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer

So here is my theory 1) All climate models are essentially the same. Why? Well they each have their own way of development based on physics but what happens is that the modelers watch the other models and adapt the strengths they see in the other models. Two models may be different at one time, in their early stages, but upgrades taking from other models essentially start to blend them all together. In the end, they all see about the same thing, because they have evolved through the years. This is Bill Grays theory and I think he is right.

But point 2) Is where I take over. The models have been developed in a period of warm PDO, then warm AMO with high solar constant. Such things can not be "modeled in". Instead the model is forced to react to something it can not approximate and is forced to play catch up. When the atmosphere was warming in reaction to these un modeled driver, it probably had a cold bias. Modelers may have been forced to adjust to the this to improve the model skill scores. But they adjusted based on RESULTS. not the true CAUSES OF THE ERRORS!

Now what happens when we start taking away the drivers that may have been causing the warming. The PDO turns cold.. low solar constants have taken over, the AMO is going to turn cold in 10-15 years,. and then the wild card is seismic activity which causes increased volcanism and may be a by product of the low solar activity. Where do you think the bias will be? Its intuitive, it WOULD BE OPPOSITE.. A WARM BIAS!

Now, something I have been talking about in the debate, the lack of warming in the tropics and the drop in specific humidity, which is something that limits tropical activity, since drier air over the tropics means a storm has to "work" harder to develop.. as the pumping of moisture into the high levels would cool the air more than usual. It was part and parcel of why this was not a big year in the atlantic, or anywhere, not the el nino, as if it was el nino driven, one would have seen a marked increase in the Pacific. But now we here the global warming crowd saying, well its drying a bit, that is why its not warming. That it is drying in the stratosphere is even better ( they havent even acknowledged their bust in the troposphere over the tropics, the real smoking gun). it means the stratosphere is not cooling as they said it would ( Dr. Tiffany Shaw has bravely gone where no one else would go on this, and pointed this out in her research!) And they cant explain it?

Sometimes I think they are blundering, and they dont even know it. Lets assume that was the answer, dont they understand that this means the co2 argument is done?. You are admitting that there is something bigger that is in control, and its not co2. That others have known this before, is of course not mentioned, The think by saying that, they will be able to justify the cooling and then say co2 will still be a problem. But how can it be the problem if you are telling us that water vapor increases or decreases are responsible ( which is much more likely than co 2) You can t have it both ways. So you have killed your own argument. Which is what others have done with the sunspot cycle. If they chuckle with glee if sunspots come roaring back to life because it means the earths temps may go up, then you are admitting that its the sunspots are the drivers.

Now I will again state my position, so we understand. I think we are going to get our answer in the next 20-30 years, that these large scale drivers that models cant handle and can only react to, not forecast, will have their day. If the earth cools by objective Satellite measurements, not nasa or Giss or NOAA or whoever playing around ( the temps when we started measuring and the total sea ice when we started measuring in the late 70s) the its obvious I and many like me are right, that it is not a big deal. If it doesnt, then maybe c02 would be a problem but many many decades from now, especially in light of doubling co2 would have a greater positive effect on food growth to feed people... something I think we are all in favor of. In the meantime, if its going to get warm, these models can see it. If its going to be cold, they are helpless.

I think I have a good argument as to why, if you simply follow the evidence.

ciao for now

Redsunset

GFS 0z

YUK . Atlantic is eye of the tiger
Needs to take a long holiday

jambofc

a long way out in F.I,and as allready said looks like we are just in for the same as we have been getting for a long time allready,dreary non event weather,temps on charts for sunday week look much the same as now just below freezing at nite and a few above dureing the day.....
am i missing something?

Speak Now

jambofc wrote: »

a long way out in F.I,and as allready said looks like we are just in for the same as we have been getting for a long time allready,dreary non event weather,temps on charts for sunday week look much the same as now just below freezing at nite and a few above dureing the day.....
am i missing something?

No yesterday's 18z GFS looked amazing...but atlantic looking the fav today.
Could all change again by this evening though but UKMO are holding firm on no easterly.

nacho libre

start panicking if the new and improved ecm follows suit.

although admittedly with the gfs now backtracking on proper cold taking hold it doesn't look good.

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

start panicking if the new and improved ecm follows suit.

although admittedly with the gfs now backtracking on proper cold taking hold it doesn't look good.

UK met office update for today still have it as cold which I hope extends as far west as here.
UK Outlook for Thursday 4 Feb 2010 to Saturday 13 Feb 2010:

Many eastern areas should be dry at first, although with an increasing risk of wintry showers in coastal areas. Western parts are likely to see outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy at times on upslopes, with a risk of snow in northern Scotland. Temperatures probably near normal in the west but rather cold in the east with overnight frost in places. Wintry showers and clear spells likely over the first weekend of February, with rain likely over low ground in the west but snow more likely elsewhere. Temperatures likely to become cold or rather cold with a widespread overnight frost. The cold conditions are likely to continue throughout the second week of February, with easterly or southeasterly winds bringing cold air from the continent and a further risk of overnight frosts.
Updated: 1200 on Sat 30 Jan 2010

derekon

Good thread however time for a reality check after all this ramping about "The Big Freeze - Part 2".

Some posters on this forum are of the view that it will turn very cold after Wednesday of this week. Although everyone is of course entitled to their view, I am gonna run Met Eireann on this one. Look at their forecast for the week ahead afte Wednesday....

THURSDAY: Mild and windy with some rain. Temperatures will rise to 10 or 11 degrees in strengthening southerly winds. Dry in the east at first with bright spells then becoming generally wet and windy as a band of heavy rain moves in across the country from the Atlantic.

More mild muck on the way so!

Derek

nacho libre

indeed the easterly seems to be drifting away. the ecm 12z is crucially siding with the UKMO from T120 and beyond.

so it looks like after tonight and tomorrow it'll be a while before we'll see snow again. not that many places saw snow today anyway.

i had a feeling after the ukmo was being bashed recently it would prove to be correct regarding this situation.

Deep Easterly

Latest ECM at 168hrs:



Wild and wet. Bring it on.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

The trend on the models is quite solid toward much colder conditions in the next 5 - 10 days from the East. The specifics are, of course, uncertain and will be uncertain for a good few days yet.

But the signs are very cold weather from the East is the most likely outcome in the next 5 - 10 days. Whether that is from a Southeasterly, a Northeasterly or an Easterly remains to be seen.

Given temps should reach 11oC or 12oc with mild wet muck on the way by Thursday, would I be right in saying the above charts should not be trusted?!!

Was getting my hopes up for a cold spell but I think now we would need to be about 48 hours from such a spell to have any confidence?

PS, Darkman I understand you were only going on the charts available at that time! My question is , are these charts worth trusting? Would not appear to be!

D

darkman2

derekon wrote: »

Given temps should reach 11oC or 12oc with mild wet muck on the way by Thursday, would I be right in saying the above charts should not be trusted?!!

Was getting my hopes up for a cold spell but I think now we would need to be about 48 hours from such a spell to have any confidence?

PS, Darkman I understand you were only going on the charts available at that time! My question is , are these charts worth trusting? Would not appear to be!

D

Hi,

Met Éireann use these same charts. Every weather organisation use these charts. Met Eireann use charts from the European Center for Medium Worked Forecasts. Same as above. You have to understand that the charts are updated every 6 hours and are subject to change. At best we can only go on trends.


The trend remains towards very cold weather from the East regardless of the operational ECM run this evening. That could change by midnight tonight but that is how I see it anyway. Met Eireann will stick to the ECM charts and give that same forecast all day regardless of any changes on the afternoon run.


The difference here is we don't only use the ECM. There are many models we can use. Some better then others. GFS, UK Met Office, and ECM are the 3 major models. There are other less reliable models too.


I think this forum is fairly accurate most of the time tbh.

I can understand how people get confused sometimes.


For example this is the latest GFS chart for Friday. One of the major models.




So you can see where a balance has to be struck when they are all showing different evolutions. It's very difficult to balance at the moment. All I can say is i, myself, am still going for the much colder option. Some will disagree but that's what makes this forum interesting.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi,

Met Éireann use these same charts. Every weather organisation use these charts. Met Eireann use charts from the European Center for Medium Worked Forecasts. Same as above. You have to understand that the charts are updated every 6 hours and are subject to change. At best we can only go on trends.


The trend remains towards very cold weather from the East regardless of the operational ECM run this evening. That could change by midnight tonight but that is how I see it anyway. Met Eireann will stick to the ECM charts and give that same forecast all day regardless of any changes on the afternoon run.


The difference here is we don't only use the ECM. There are many models we can use. Some better then others. GFS, UK Met Office, and ECM are the 3 major models. There are other less reliable models too.


I think this forum is fairly accurate most of the time tbh.

I can understand how people get confused sometimes.


For example this is the latest GFS chart for Friday. One of the major models.




So you can see where a balance has to be struck when they are all showing different evolutions. It's very difficult to balance at the moment. All I can say is i, myself, am still going for the much colder option. Some will disagree but that's what makes this forum interesting.

Hi Darkman2,

Thanks for the explanation, very clear and easy to understand for a layman like myself.

I can't read the charts and am a bit of a novice so the above GFS chart for Friday does not mean much to me! I take it this chart is showing cold over Britain & Ireland?

I understand that the charts will fluctuate and change...will have to be more patient going forward.

Looking forward to learning a bit on this forum....:)

Derek

darkman2

derekon wrote: »

Hi Darkman2,

Thanks for the explanation, very clear and easy to understand for a layman like myself.

I can't read the charts and am a bit of a novice so the above GFS chart for Friday does not mean much to me! I take it this chart is showing cold over Britain & Ireland?

I understand that the charts will fluctuate and change...will have to be more patient going forward.

Looking forward to learning a bit on this forum....:)

Derek

Gladly,


Forgive me for being a little basic.

The chart above shows a very cold Easterly airflow over Ireland from the continent. The chart above is a synoptic chart showing variations in pressure represented by the lines. Around Low Pressure ("T" on the map above) air flows anti clockwise. Around an area of High Pressure ("H" on the map) air flows clockwise. The closer together the lines (called isobars) are the higher the winds. You can also pick out frontal features, or rain bands, by noting chinks or distortions in the isobars.

The colours on the chart are not temperature btw. That is something called "geopotential heights" which is not all that important for you to know atm. But simply greens and blues mean more rain potential and lower pressure and yellows and reds mean less rain potential and higher pressure.

darkman2

ECM ensembles for 10 days for the 12pm run are out.




The operational run (the red line) is clearly too mild against the vast majority of the other members. So basically the ECM, which shows a return to mild Southwesterlies this evening, is most likely off the mark by quite a bit. The actual outcome should be much colder.

delw

darkman2 wrote: »

Gladly,


Forgive me for being a little basic.

The chart above shows a very cold Easterly airflow over Ireland from the continent. The chart above is a synoptic chart showing variations in pressure represented by the lines. Around Low Pressure ("T" on the map above) air flows anti clockwise. Around an area of High Pressure ("H" on the map) air flows clockwise. The closer together the lines (called isobars) are the higher the winds. You can also pick out frontal features, or rain bands, by noting chinks or distortions in the isobars.

The colours on the chart are not temperature btw. That is something called "geopotential heights" which is not all that important for you to know atm. But simply greens and blues mean more rain potential and lower pressure and yellows and reds mean less rain potential and higher pressure.

cheers for that darkman2,it makes alot more sense&know d basics to look for from now on

Snowaddict

Evening everyone,

A very disappointing latest ECMWF 12Z Operational evolution. Despite it being a warmer member in it's Ensemble suite, the Control run also broadly follows the evolution. Is essence, towards T+168, we are faced with a negative NAO signal, but it's a West-Based Negative NAO. This, in turn, means that the UK & Ireland is on the ''warm'' side of the mean trough, with very cold Northeasterly winds into the Northeast Quarter of the United States & Canada. Today's UKMO 12Z Operational evolution is extremely disappointing.

In the other hand, GFS 12Z Operational is excellent, with an undercutting motion and a very cold Easterly flow by Day 5 - Day 6.

In terms of background signals, a significant warming continues at the 30mb Level, indicated by the latest update on the chart below.

30mb Temperature - North Pole



In addition, the latest CPC Prognostic 500mb 14 Day Height anomoly charts continue to indicate a Mean Northeasterly flow, with Extreme blocking all across the variable North, with multiple centres, as indicated on the chart below.

CPC Prognostic Chart - 14 Day

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

Mixed signals overall then, the 30mb Temperature Profile, AO & NAO Trends and other signals point to strong potential for a cold outbreak, however medium term NWP Guidance is far from promising & in some cases, is in fact very disappointing.

There is a lot of uncertainty & we could well see a return to exceptional blocking on subsequent ECMWF Operational outputs. However, the Multi-Model trends are not promising at the moment, but the background signals appear to be rather consistently promising.

In addition, substantial propagation of the latest warming event at the 30mb Level to the Troposphere is indicated towards Day 10.

SA

nacho libre

Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone for sustained cold judging by the latest model outputs as far as I can see. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but it seem there is just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of - AO and other favourable synoptics.
So we'll more than likely have to rely on a Northerly for snow from now on.

Speak Now

Yeap the easterly looks dead in the water now. Was fun watching the models though. Hope Feb isn't to to wet:mad:

nacho libre

So despite the upgrade, to the usully reliable ecmwf model, it was the ukmo which led the way on there being no easterly. The gfs was last to cave in, but it was inevitable that it would.
Joe Bastardi got it spot on for this winter too. The likes of Berlin has seen no let up this winter. While England and Ireland have just flirted with the colder easterly air since the middle of January, as he said we would, with the core of the cold remaining in continental Europe.

jambofc

nacho libre wrote: »

So despite the upgrade, to the usully reliable ecmwf model, it was the ukmo which led the way on there being no easterly. The gfs was last to cave in, but it was inevitable that it would.
Joe Bastardi got it spot on for this winter too. The likes of Berlin has seen no let up this winter. While England and Ireland have just flirted with the colder easterly air since the middle of January, as he said we would, with the core of the cold remaining in continental Europe.

incredibly infuriating how close this winter has been to a once in a lifetime event.

nacho libre

jambofc wrote: »

incredibly infuriating how close this winter has been to a once in a lifetime event.

yeah exactly:(:(

I'm starting to lose hope we'll ever see a winter like those that have gone down in snow folkore.

200motels

I think things will change again, and I have not giving hope, the models are so inconsistent it's unbelievable.

InKonspikuou2

Ireland just isn't the place for snow. It's like watching porn on dial up. You get a glimpse of the good stuff and then the image turns out to be a tranny.

Su Campu

Here's the Weatheronline monthly Forecast issued today.

Valid from 06/02 to 05/03 2010
Signs of a little spring warmth
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]Issued: 0800hrs Sunday 31st January 2010
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob [/FONT]

When will this interminably and seemingly long winter end, I ask myself? The patterns suggest we've a way to go just yet, it'll be a slow warm up but have faith; although it'll be a slow affair we'll certainly appreciate any spring warmth when and if it arrives!

This winters patterns appears to have been dominated and controlled by a very large, stubbornly persistent and 'immoveable' block of cold continental arctic air sitting to the east of the British Isles. We have all experienced the effects of this air mass from time to time in varying degrees of severity and persistence and we do still appear to have some way to go yet before its influence is eroded and a major pattern shift takes place, winter will return in various guises over the next forecast period.
High pressure and cold air looks persistently entrenched over the near continent this fending off any major incursion of milder Atlantic systems, these mainly affecting the fringes of western Britain and Europe. The influence of high pressure looks set to increase through the middle of the month the weather settling in a rather cold perhaps easterly dominated flow, with low pressure desperately attempting to dislodge the cold air, therefore let battle commence.
Initially the cold air will be the victor; however I have a hunch that during the latter stages of February we could see a shift to a west to south-westerly flow pushing through western Britain this then pilling its way across remaining areas. As the month changes once again so does the pattern with high pressure building back as a large feature conditions settling across all areas, chilly on the whole overnight although temperatures responding to increasing spring sunshine by day.

*06/02/10 - 12/02/10*
An east to west divide may open up here in response to persistent high pressure and cold feed of continental air from the southeast and less cold Atlantic conditions to the west brought about on lax southerly low pressure flow.
Western Britain may see some patchy cloud and outbreaks of light rain from time to time whilst the east remains mainly settled and dry with brighter spells, chilly through central and eastern areas with overnight frost, scattered wintry shower at times.
A general countrywide rise in pressure is expected through the middle of the period with a ridge extending into the UK from the east, conditions settling everywhere scattered wintry showers affecting the east but generally dry although remaining cold.

*13/02/10 - 19/02/10*
High pressure over the UK and to the east looks likely to remain as large and persistent block to the Atlantic systems attempting to dislodge the cold but settled conditions; initially the situation looks rather static. However there are signs that the reign of high pressure may be coming to a conclusion during this period as the influence continental anticyclone is eroded from the west by low pressure.
A rather 'messy' pattern is indicated to be taking place through the latter stages of this period with a wintry transition eventually giving way to less cold, cloudy and windy weather extending from the west and southwest, the mitigating effects of the Atlantic air perhaps however not appreciated just yet. Low pressure perhaps deflected southward for a time a cold eastern flow across southern Britain.
The 'damage' to the block looks to have now been sufficient to allow the next Atlantic system in the queue to make progress right across the UK, a mix of sleet and snow ahead of milder air crossing all areas, rather windy and feeling cool for a time but temperatures recovering later.

*20/02/10 - 26/02/10*
If the pattern proves to be correct then it'll be 'all change' here as the flow should be dominated by quite a strong south-westerly driven by low pressure to the west or northwest and higher pressure over central Europe, all areas much milder.
Milder Atlantic conditions come with a price, this mainly at the expense of any brightness and dry weather, which will probably be reserved for sheltered south-eastern and eastern Britain, south-western, western and north-western areas likely to see outbreaks of rain from time to time and a rather strong breeze.
The latter stages of the period looks likely to remain rather unsettled everywhere with outbreaks of rain but generally on the mild side for most areas, the hint perhaps of colder air tucking back into the north with wintry showers for a time.

*27/02/10 - 05/03/10*
The pattern changes here once more as pressure rise and a large anticyclone settles over the UK, showers should die away and winds fall light across all areas.
By day we'll be chasing areas of cloud, temperatures should respond to increasing levels of sunshine and it'll be feeling more 'spring-like' perhaps in sheltered areas, however overnight frosts will be widespread and quite sharp.
There is the hint that for a time high may drift westward, allowing a noticeably colder northerly flow to establish with wintry showers appearing once more over higher ground and exposed areas, bright but chilly through remaining areas.

*06/03/10 - 10/03/10*
High pressure should slowly edge back east or south-eastward across the country, winds falling lighter once more, so perhaps not feeling as chilly as the effects of spring sunshine are felt.
The southern half of the UK should remain mainly settled and dry as high pressure drifts south, northern Britain perhaps becoming cloudier with patchy rain as a light westerly to south-westerly establishes around the northern flank.

Simon & Captain Bob

Graces7

Yet for us? Four weeks cut off by snow...And for many others.

nacho libre wrote: »

yeah exactly:(:(

I'm starting to lose hope we'll ever see a winter like those that have gone down in snow folkore.