Betfair Explained

wb · 07-03-2007 3:13pm

TOm Kelly wrote:

WB - Re. betting in running ... if betfair refreshes every 20 seconds - how is there time to lay and place bets after coming over the last .. or with a furlong to go on the flat ... that is one third of the time it takes to run five furlongs ... what am I missing? Thanks.

Hi Tom. You will need to download a bot.

After you download a bot, you will be presented with a screen similar to the normal betfair one, but it has extra capabilities.

Betangel is one such bot, and they work in conjunction with betfair, so it's completely safe. The free version http://www.betangel.com/products/BA/bab.htm allows 1 second refresh rates, and one click betting - .ie. no confirmation screen/delays etc. (both essential for IR betting).

Once you download it, tick the boxes that offer these facilities and you are ready to go.

TOm Kelly · 07-03-2007 4:48pm

Thanks Robin and WB ... that explains it ... so you would not have this facility @ a 'remote' computer eg internet cafe.

I have been particularly looking at Betfair for golf betting - as there can be very big price advantages ... particularly on longshots ... and of course betting in running gives you a chance to cover .. particularly on a Sunday night - if you are still in contention.

wb · 08-03-2007 12:01pm

TOm Kelly wrote:

Thanks Robin and WB ... that explains it ... so you would not have this facility @ a 'remote' computer eg internet cafe.

.

It only takes a couple of minutes to download, so depending on how strict the internet cafe is, you could download it each time you wanted to use it.

However, you really need to be watching the event to back IR.

Paddy Irishman · 12-03-2007 4:24pm

Hi, I'm thinking of opening a Betfair account in time for Cheltenham tomorrow. Can those of you who are already members tell me what, if any, correspondence Betfair send you by post? I would like to have the option to remain exempt from receiving postal communication from Betfair (an option I had when joining Betdaq). I've read their privacy policy and it sounds too much like hard work to have to go making requests under the Data Protection Act to London in order to have your privacy observed. Kaiser2000 raised the question of sending them identification etc. This I understand is part of their "know your customer" checks. As an Irish client where does this information go to? I would like to be 100% certain that my personal details are safe before joining. Thanks for your help, Paddy Irishman.

fozz · 12-03-2007 4:51pm

I have a question regarding VISA card withdrawals.
I initially (last year) lodged £100 into my BF account.
I then went into profit by a few hundred and went to withdraw some but BF only allowed me to withdraw that same £100 back to my VISA card.
They say that any other withdrawals will have to be out to my bank account?

Is that true?

wb · 12-03-2007 6:22pm

fozz wrote:

I have a question regarding VISA card withdrawals.
I initially (last year) lodged £100 into my BF account.
I then went into profit by a few hundred and went to withdraw some but BF only allowed me to withdraw that same £100 back to my VISA card.
They say that any other withdrawals will have to be out to my bank account?

Is that true?

You could e-mail them, but I'm pretty sure that they changed the rules last year and no-longer allow withdrawls to your credit card. You can order a cheque (free) or get a bank transfer to your normal account (bank charges may apply).

zuutroy · 19-03-2007 8:10pm

Started playing for real money (though with very low stakes) with my first system there about 10 days ago. Through 40 bets, I've won 34 for a profit on the horses and my bank value is currently at 300% of its original value. I've also had a bit of success on Basketball, Soccer and Rugby. At the moment I'm really just learning how the markets move. How many bets would you reckon before its statistically believable as good system?
Also, its quiet reliant on the excellent Fairbot software and my free trial is nearly up

Have looked at betangel and really dont like the feel of it.

wb · 20-03-2007 1:02pm

zuutroy wrote:

How many bets would you reckon before its statistically believable as good system?
.

Are you talking about backing, laying or trading?

zuutroy · 20-03-2007 1:31pm

Sorry, for horses it's mostly in-running backing at certain market conditions (which I'm still trying to finalise), and for other sports it's some trading (doesnt work too well) and some straight backing, again at certain conditions. I suppose its hard for you to tell given that its a bit of a mish-mash of different techniques and different sports.

wb · 20-03-2007 1:58pm

It's hard to say really. It depends how many 'qualifiers' you are coming up with per day. I usually lay 10-20 horses per day, and record everything I can about the horse/track/distance/going etc. in a spreadsheet. I'll review after every 1000 lays, and try to spot trends that are costing me money (for example, I was not making any money on cl6 handicaps, so they got dropped). Backing wise, I usually review the spreadsheets at around 200 bets. I don't record much when trading - I'm more into 'scalping' the market and moving on to the next one. When trading, I'm not concerned about the horse, going etc, just the price movements.

zuutroy · 20-03-2007 2:11pm

wb wrote:

I don't record much when trading - I'm more into 'scalping' the market and moving on to the next one. When trading, I'm not concerned about the horse, going etc, just the price movements.

Yeah, I shouldve mentioned that thats what I do....I tried other stuff based on 'real world' factors, but it didnt work so what I'm doing now is purely based on market movements and how it reacts to certain situations for example I've found odds >1.15 to be had on the draw when a soccer match has passed the 90min mark, which stastically speaking is a winner .
There also seems to be a lot of inflated movements in the 5 mins before half time that tend to level out when the whistle blows.
I dont even watch the horse races, just the numbers. Well, here's hoping it continues to work.

TOm Kelly · 20-03-2007 2:44pm

Paddy Irishman wrote:

Hi, I'm thinking of opening a Betfair account in time for Cheltenham tomorrow. Can those of you who are already members tell me what, if any, correspondence Betfair send you by post? I would like to have the option to remain exempt from receiving postal communication from Betfair (an option I had when joining Betdaq). I've read their privacy policy and it sounds too much like hard work to have to go making requests under the Data Protection Act to London in order to have your privacy observed. Kaiser2000 raised the question of sending them identification etc. This I understand is part of their "know your customer" checks. As an Irish client where does this information go to? I would like to be 100% certain that my personal details are safe before joining. Thanks for your help, Paddy Irishman.

Paddy Irishman - I recently opened a/c to test it out ... the golf odds are often much better -

I am in Dublin - it took me about 30 seconds to open a/c online - no documentation required - went down and lodged cash directly to Betfair's nominated bank -- Ulster Bank Ranelagh -- the cash was in my account to bet with the next day --- so I would expect that, even if you did a credit transfer from another bank ... you should be able to bet within 2 or 3 days.

wb · 20-03-2007 4:10pm

Paddy Irishman wrote:

Hi, I'm thinking of opening a Betfair account in time for Cheltenham tomorrow. Can those of you who are already members tell me what, if any, correspondence Betfair send you by post? I would like to have the option to remain exempt from receiving postal communication from Betfair (an option I had when joining Betdaq). I've read their privacy policy and it sounds too much like hard work to have to go making requests under the Data Protection Act to London in order to have your privacy observed. Kaiser2000 raised the question of sending them identification etc. This I understand is part of their "know your customer" checks. As an Irish client where does this information go to? I would like to be 100% certain that my personal details are safe before joining. Thanks for your help, Paddy Irishman.

As Tom said, it's pretty straightforward to open an account and lodge/withdraw money. The only post I ever recieve from them is when I withdraw money (I do so by cheque). I did get a phone call once, soon after I opened the account asking me how I was finding the site.

TOm Kelly · 20-03-2007 6:58pm

I just received a letter from Betfair - no cheque - but a pack including Welcome Letter - a booklet on intro to BF -- A folder on BF Games -- and a 206 page book, in the style of the 'Dummies' series:

'Winning on Betfair for DUMMIES' --

Have to say it is a very comprehensive Welcome Pack.

I note that they have 35000 registered Irish accounts and over 1 million worldwide ... that's impressive.

zuutroy · 20-03-2007 7:11pm

Anyone ever bother with in-play for the American racing? I get withdrawal symptoms at 5pm every evening. When do the evening meetings start?

wb · 20-03-2007 8:31pm

zuutroy wrote:

Anyone ever bother with in-play for the American racing? I get withdrawal symptoms at 5pm every evening. When do the evening meetings start?

I wouldn't attempt it if I were you. I rarely back IR, and only focus on the UK markets. The liquidity is very low in the Irish/American racing compared to the UK stuff. Tomorrow's another day

zuutroy · 20-03-2007 9:05pm

So I've noticed....you've got like 4 horses below 2 and then all of a sudden it ends!...impossible.

Robin1982 · 20-03-2007 11:44pm

Backing in-running without live racing pictures is rarely a good idea

zuutroy · 21-03-2007 8:50am

Its worked very well for me so far, in fact I prefer NOT to have pictures at this point as they kind of let the heart rule the head.

Robin1982 · 21-03-2007 11:00am

zuutroy wrote:

Its worked very well for me so far, in fact I prefer NOT to have pictures at this point as they kind of let the heart rule the head.

Definitions of non sequitur on the Web:

"it does not follow" - The premise does not support the conclusion.

zuutroy · 21-03-2007 11:15am

Robin1982 wrote:

Definitions of non sequitur on the Web:
"it does not follow" - The premise does not support the conclusion.

Not sure what you are trying to say but my strike rate is over 85% to date and I havent watched a single race. I base it on market movements not on the animals.

zuutroy · 21-03-2007 9:15pm

Question: If I'm backing in-running and say I place a back at 2.0 assuming the horse is gonna win, can I then use a lay at say 2.5 as an insurance policy if the horse drifts, or is the lay at 2.5 matched straight away?

Had a shocker today, after 10 straight winners I had 3 heavy losers in a row (on the wrong end of the photo finishes) to finish that gave me my first losing day since I started.

Robin1982 · 21-03-2007 9:34pm

zuutroy wrote:

Question: If I'm backing in-running and say I place a back at 2.0 assuming the horse is gonna win, can I then use a lay at say 2.5 as an insurance policy if the horse drifts, or is the lay at 2.5 matched straight away?

"I am willing to back this horse at Evens, but I am also willing to lay this horse at 6/4"

*sigh*, it will be matched immediately at whatever the currently lay price is, locking in your guaranteed loss.

zuutroy wrote:

Had a shocker today, after 10 straight winners I had 3 heavy losers in a row (on the wrong end of the photo finishes) to finish that gave me my first losing day since I started.

I'm far from surprised. Quite frankly, you are guessing - gambling in its truest sense.

While you may think my responses are harsh, if you actually used some critical thinking to examine what you are doing, I think you would recognise the folly of your ways. Long term, this strategy is almost 100% certain to lose money.

zuutroy · 21-03-2007 10:07pm

Dude I've got a PhD in Physics, I aint guessing I can assure you. All of my bets are based on market movements with a view to removing the uncertainty that is integral to sport. I'd spent several hours looking at data in Excel even before I started playing for real money. I'm the first to admit that it may fail, but to date my bank is at over 400% of its original value through 264 bets, with a win rate of over 85%. What would you view as long term? If I can keep up the win rate over 1000 bets, the probability that its a genuine system is over 96%.

As for my question, I should've added that I meant is it possible to do with fairbot or betangel, I knew its not possible in regular BF.

wb · 21-03-2007 10:17pm

I never trade IR as I think it's a minefield, so I'm not speaking from any experience.

As far as I know, you can do it in betangel (pro version, not the free one). Never tried fairbot, what's it like?

zuutroy · 21-03-2007 10:33pm

I really prefer it to bet angel (basic anyway). You should d/l and try it for the trial period anway. It has a nicer interface where its easier to see who's at what price, and it places tags on the favourites at all times which I find very handy IR. The one click trading is really straightforward too.

Thanks for the advice about IR backing, but I think I'll give it a whirl for another few weeks and learn the hard way! Worst comes to worst I'll give it up when my bank is back where it started. My lesson for today was not to partake in races less than 1 mile no matter how tempting...now they are a minefield!

Robin1982 · 21-03-2007 10:38pm

zuutroy wrote:

Dude I've got a PhD in Physics, I aint guessing I can assure you. All of my bets are based on market movements with a view to removing the uncertainty that is integral to sport. I'd spent several hours looking at data in Excel even before I started playing for real money. I'm the first to admit that it may fail, but to date my bank is at over 400% of its original value through 264 bets, with a win rate of over 85%. What would you view as long term? If I can keep up the win rate over 1000 bets, the probability that its a genuine system is over 96%.

Ha ha ha ha, ah I see. I had a picture of you as one of those guys who hovers over the back button of the favourite with the Back @ 1.01 ready, waiting for the market to go below 2.0.

So you are in effect a technical analyst, to use the financial nomenclature. Without knowing the size of the Betfair historical data set you used/are using and what level/type of analysis you used, I would say that your strategy is easily automated.

zuutroy wrote:

As for my question, I should've added that I meant is it possible to do with fairbot or betangel, I knew its not possible in regular BF.

I'm not familiar with either of those applications as I have only ever built my own Betfair tools. Once again, it wouldn't be difficult to program something that watches the "flow" of a market selection and, for some situations when the prices "bounces" - the parameters such as minimum price movement, back-lay price width, liquidity can be optimized through analytical studies of the historical data - take evasive action.

But for any of these strategies, I think you would need a significantly large historical tick data set.

zuutroy · 21-03-2007 11:01pm

Robin1982 wrote:

Ha ha ha ha, ah I see. I had a picture of you as one of those guys who hovers over the back button of the favourite with the Back @ 1.01 ready, waiting for the market to go below 2.0.

Nah its not that simple! I've actually spent quite a lot of time reading papers like this one:

http://www.bettinginfo.net/Articles/math/goal%20distributions.pdf

to try and understand how to get the upper hand. So I'm trying to match the actual probability of certain events to how the market reacts to them to see if there's a difference (e.g the market almost always over-reacts to an opening goal by the favoured team and will drift after the initial down spike) . I've found a few in soccer to date but my sample set is quite small.

Robin1982 wrote:

So you are in effect a technical analyst, to use the financial nomenclature. Without knowing the size of the Betfair historical data set you used/are using and what level/type of analysis you used, I would say that your strategy is easily automated.

I'd guess it would be a) when its refined a LOT and b) if it works!
But I'm useless at coding so I'll have to hire someone with my winnings :cool:

I only used about 100 races before I started with real money and around 200 since then.

zuutroy · 22-03-2007 9:36pm

No drama today. 18 races in profit out of 20, for total winnings of 19% of my bank. Think I better stop clogging up this educational thread with my ups and downs!

zuutroy · 11-04-2007 6:08pm

Anyone know any (free) software that stores in-play odds to a database for analysis? I'm trying to gauge the effect of certain situations on the markets.

Betfair Explained

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