Betfair Explained

wb

In short, to work this out, I would need the EXACT details of EACH bet.

How much, what price etc.

wolfe

Here goes. Backed it from 50's.

6.50 EW 50 TO 1
5.00 EW 20 TO 1
5.00 EW 16 TO 1
17.50 EW 14 TO 1
3.50 win 10 TO 1

wb

wolfe wrote:

Here goes. Backed it from 50's.

6.50 EW 50 TO 1
5.00 EW 20 TO 1
5.00 EW 16 TO 1
17.50 EW 14 TO 1
3.50 win 10 TO 1

Ok wolfe. I'm just working on a few things at the moment. I'll get back to you on this before the day is out

wb

What is the name of the horse wolfe? I need to check the current price..

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

What is the name of the horse wolfe?

wb

finnpark wrote:

He said it was 9's on betfair, but that was earlier today. I had not got enough details about his bookie bets to work it out at that stage. I need to check the current price if he wants to do an accurate lay off. As you should know, the price has more than likely changed since earlier on, that is why I dont want to assume that the price is still 9's
I could go ahead and use 9, but that may cost him money and we dont like doing that to people now do we?

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

He said it was 9's on betfair, but that was earlier today. I had not got enough details about his bookie bets to work it out at that stage. I need to check the current price if he wants to do an accurate lay off. As you should know, the price has more than likely changed since earlier on, that is why I dont want to assume that the price is still 9's
I could go ahead and use 9, but that may cost him money and we dont like doing that to people now do we?

Well I want to know which horse he has backed from 50/1 into 8/1, sounds crazy to me. Amadeus Wolfe by any chance?

wb

Probably.

I presume it is for the 2000 guineas, and the only ones around that price at the moment are Amadeus Wolf, and Horatio Nelson, but I can find either being 50/1 at any stage. If he got this right, it looks like he can get one hell of a lay-off, or a free bet if he wants.

wolfe

you guessed the clue to the horse is in my username!!!!!!!!!!!

wolfe

the clue to the horse is in my username!!!!!

Got it at 50'S for the guineas back in Sept before its last run.Been waiting a long time for this race!

wb

First things first, if you need to learn how to convert odds to betfair prices, see post 4 of this thread.

Are you completely sure you want to lay this off? Looks like you may have gotten a great deal there.

Anyway - Please check the figures, but the way I work it out is as follows:

Because there is no each-way betting on betfair, your bookie bets need to be split separately into win & place bets.

Regarding the win, you have staked €37.50 , and if it comes first, you will earn €785. This gives you an average price of 20.95/1 - but we will need to round this down to 20/1 as betfair does not have such small divisions in price. Now, to change your 20/1 into betfair prices, you add one.
So you have the betfair equivalent of €37.50 staked on the betfair price of 21

The current lay price on betfair is 9.4. If you lay this horse on betfair using an €84.22 backers stake, you can lock in an automatic profit of €42.15 no matter what happens after 5% commission. You will need to have €707.49 in the account in case the horse loses.



Now, to the place part of the bet:

This profit here is much shorter. You have a total of €37.50 staked with the bookie to win €141 if the horse is placed. This gives you an average price of 3.76/1. Converted to betfair prices, we have to round down very slightly, and assume you have 3.7/1 this is expressed as 4.7 on betfair.
So you have €37.50 on the horse to be placed at 4.7. The current lay price for the horse to be placed on betfair is 3.3. If you lay this horse to be placed at 3.3 using a €54.23 backers stake, you will lock in an automatic profit of €14.02, but you will need €86.25 in the account to cover the bet.


So to re-cap:

Lay the horse in the win market using €84.22
Lay the horse in the place market using €54.23

You will need to have a total of €793.73 in the account to cover both bets.

You will gain €56.17 no matter what happens.

Some things to consider:

1.)Don’t forget that this is assuming that you are using the prices at the time of writing.
2.) If the horse wins, will you be happy with gaining €56.17 when you could have gotten nearly a grand?

3) You don’t have to lay-off the whole bet, play around with the figures, and decide whether you want to guarantee a free bet, lay the lot off to lock in a profit, or lay some of it off etc. here is a hedging calculator to help you work it out:

http://www.oddschecker.com/powertools/hedging_calculator.html

The above calculator uses betfair odds.



If you do decide to lay it off, and you need help placing the lay, just ask

wolfe

wbailey wrote:

Are you completely sure you want to lay this off? Looks like you may have gotten a great deal there.

Thanks for the detailed info on this. It appears i still have a lot to learn about betfair. I think i might just hold off and keep my fingers crossed for saturday!

wb

While it looks like you have a good deal, if you want to make sure you dont lose any money at all, you can

- Take a free bet.

To get yourself a free bet:



1) Lay the win (current price 9.2) using €37.50
2) Lay the place (current price 3.3) using €37.50





The outcome?

A) The horse wins:
You would win €785 with the bookie for the win, and €141 for the place, but you would owe out €393.75 on betfair. So if the horse came first you gain €532.25


The horse does not come first, but is placed:
You would win €141 with the bookie for the place part of the bet but lose €37.50 for the win part. You would win €37.50 for laying the win on betfair, but you would owe out €86.25 for laying the horse in the place market. So if the horse does not come first, but is placed, you gain €54.75


c) The horse does not win or place:
You lose the full bet with the bookies (€75.00) but you gain €37.50 for laying the win, and €37.50 for laying the place on betfair. So if the horse does not win or place, you gain €0.00, but you lose €0.00

Anyway, whatever you decide to do, you are in a good position, and good luck with it

finnpark

A bit off topic here but I backed Amadeus Wolfe at 12/1 on Europe Boy's advice, see its down to 6/1 now. Nice one:)

masterK

This may be of interest for those new to Betfair

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470028564/202-4275714-9075028

wb

masterK wrote:

This may be of interest for those new to Betfair

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470028564/202-4275714-9075028

Looks good masterk. While we are at it, can I reccommend this book:


http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/1905153023/qid=1146823469/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_1_3/026-0182848-5693258

It was by far the best gambling book that I have read. I did a review of it somewhere else, Ill have a look later to see if I can root it out.

Kent Brockman

wbailey wrote:

Bots:

A Bot is basically short for robot - something that automates certain tasks, such as placing bets and updating odds. There are a few free ones and a few pay ones available that are compatible with betfair. If you are to consider in-running or trading (trading will be discussed later) it is essential that you have a bot. I use betangel basic, which is free to download, There is a more advanced version that you have to pay for, but the free one covers my needs for the moment. I don’t use any other bots, so I will only be refering to betangel while talking about bots.
There are a few advantages that a bot offers which can give you a slight edge above other non bot betfair users. (Although bots are becoming more and more popular by the month). When you log in, you will be faced with a screen similar in layout to your normal betfair screen.
With a good broadband connection, the prices are automatically updated every second. These updates are only a small edge, but you need every edge you can get in this game.
There is no time delay/confirmation screen when placing a bet. Once you enter the stakes you want to use, they will stay there, even carrying over into the in-running market. Then when you see the price you want, you only have to click once, and the bet is fired in immediately. When a price is coming in, or going out, the normal betfair is only refreshed every few seconds, so you may miss out on a price if you don’t have a bot. When you are trading (I will discuss this later) it is essential to have a bot to catch these in-between prices

Thanks for the info. Just downloaded that free BOT and tried to use it but it asked for my betfair login details. Wasn't too confident about doing this so i was just wondering if this is normal practice before I put in my betfair password?

wb

Kent Brockman wrote:

Thanks for the info. Just downloaded that free BOT and tried to use it but it asked for my betfair login details. Wasn't too confident about doing this so i was just wondering if this is normal practice before I put in my betfair password?

Yes.
Because the bot needs to interact with your betair account, it needs your log-in details. Once you log-in, you will be faced with a screen similar to betfair. I can give you my word that it is entirely safe, and regulary used by many people including me.
Once you select the market you wish to gamble on, make sure you change the refrest screen to every 1 second, instead of five. I would also reccommend turning off the 'confirmaiton' of bets. once you do this, you can enjoy one click betting, but just be careful not to click on the wrong button, as the bet is fired in on one click, and there is no going back.

Philbert

wbailey wrote:

Trading with a bot.

If you want to take trading more seriously, you need a bot. I must state here that I am only doing this a few weeks, so I am still learning. The best time to trade is 10 minutes before the off, because of the amount of money going in and out. The advantages of using a bot are the 1 click bets and the 1 second refresh rate. You could back a horse, then the price may lower for only a second or two (this change would not be seen on the normal screen), but if you are fast enough - Bang! You fire the bet in and move on……..
Also, there is an option to ‘green up’. This means instead of taking a free bet like in the example above, it will spread the free bet money on all the other horses ensuring a profit no matter what horse wins. Believe me - This is a fantastic feeling.
But, sometimes, things wont go your way, and you MUST bail out taking the loss if the price keeps rising. Depending on your stakes, you may be only making a few cent on a race, so to lose a few euro could take dozens of trades to make up. I currently use €20 as my stake, and usually make anything between 5 cent and 1 euro on a race if things go right. So as you can see, it is a lot of effort for a small amount, but not too risky if you know what you are doing. I wont go into any more detail at this point, as there are videos available on the bet angel website explaining the whole process, also, I am only learning myself. But if anyone wants to discuss it further, feel free to ask.

On a personal level, a great feeling for me when trading is 'greening up' - and you sit back and watch a race knowing you will profit no matter what wins. That said, I don't get the same sense of satisfaction and accomplishment from trading as I do from picking a winner from form reading. When trading, you must change your mindset, and not let your feelings get in the way. I try to become emotionless when trading, and just deal with figures, and that takes some of the joy of the sport away from it. But money is money after all.

Hi,

Thanks for all the helpful information so far. I have one question regarding trading. Is there any trend to the way the prices move (in general) through out the day and up to the last few seconds before the race? ie: Do prices tend to start higher and eventually settle slightly lower (on average), or the other way around? Or not at all..

Tia

masterK

Philbert wrote:

Hi,

Thanks for all the helpful information so far. I have one question regarding trading. Is there any trend to the way the prices move (in general) through out the day and up to the last few seconds before the race? ie: Do prices tend to start higher and eventually settle slightly lower (on average), or the other way around? Or not at all..

Tia

There's no real answer to that question. Some prices start higher and shorten while others start lower and drift. The skill in trading is trying to predict selections that will drift/shorten and then back or lay accordingly.

If you ever see the book percentage (the number above the back column) going over 105% then the prices in that race will generally shorten as the percentage figure will get closer to 100% before the race meaning the average price will be less, however this doesn't happen too often and even if it does it still doesn't mean every horse will shorten.

IMO in order to be able to trade with any success you need to have some notion of what price a horse should be in your opinion, if it's much higher than that price then it is a good nomination to back in the hope of trading off at a lower price.

wb

Hi Philbert.

MasterK sums it up there really.
It takes time and a lot of market watching to learn how trends go, and then still, very often, it does not work out.
I'm afraid there is no set pattern, but if you concentrate on the top horse in the betting, in the last 10 minutes before the off, the prices will usually swing both ways slightly before settling down a bit.
While learning the trade (pun intended ) you should stick to short priced horses (under 4.0) becuase you WILL lose money learning. When you get more confident, you can up the stakes a bit.
The most important thing when trading is to have 'bail out' points. EVEN IF THIS MEANS ACCEPTING A LOSS. Losing sometimes is part of trading. Personally, my 'bail out' point is 3 price rises. For example, if I back a horse at 2.14, and the price starts rising, I will bail out as soon as the price hits 2.20 and accept the loss. Don't hang around waiting for the price to fall back down because very often, it wont, and you dont want to be left with a bet that you did not want. Remember, if you are using say €20 as your stake, you will be only making a few cent per race, so you simply cant afford to lose ten or twenty euro, as it would take dozens of sucessfull trades to recoup.

To trade within the last 10 minutes, you will need to get a bot (betangel basic is free and easy to use once you get the hang of it) and dont let it carry into in-running because this is a minefield.

Hope this helps. Feel free to ask any more questions

TwistsAndTurns

Just started to play for fun on betfair but going to open an account at the end of the week. Thanks for all the good info, its explained in easy man`s terms, nice and simple. Will be using this thread for references in the future for laying as I didnt understand it fully. Thanks for all the info again.

masterK

eirebhoys wrote:

Just started to play for fun on betfair but going to open an account at the end of the week. Thanks for all the good info, its explained in easy man`s terms, nice and simple. Will be using this thread for references in the future for laying as I didnt understand it fully. Thanks for all the info again.

Make sure you use one of the bonus codes signing up to get the €30 free.

wb

eirebhoys wrote:

Just started to play for fun on betfair but going to open an account at the end of the week. Thanks for all the good info, its explained in easy man`s terms, nice and simple. Will be using this thread for references in the future for laying as I didnt understand it fully. Thanks for all the info again.

Thanks for the kind words eirebhoys. I lost close to €1000 in my first few months of betfair, mainly from jumping in where it was too deep, and not understanding what I was doing. While it was a costly mistake, I learned some very valuable lessons and now consider it money well spent, in a funny sort of way. Most of the mistakes people make happen every day on betfair, and are avoidable. Hopefully this thread may save someone a couple of euro sometime. Good luck with the laying - be careful, and don't be afraid to ask any 'stupid' questions on the forum. It can be difficult when starting out, but extremely enjoyabe too.

DeadParrot

Keyzer wrote:

I'm confused now...

I just went onto to betfair and setup a bet with the lays odds it gave me...

Flamingo Guitar
You are betting against Flamingo Guitar
Backers odds 5.4
Backers stake €43

Payout €232.20
Liability -€189.20

Do i get 232 back if it doesnt win?
How come your lays are only doubled?

I know nothing about betting...

Keyzer, have a quick look at the betfair sticky on the main horseracing page.
Basically, you are the bookie, you are putting UP €43 for someone to back against and are offering them whatever odds you want.
e.g, you and yer mate bet each other a tenner that Robin1982 is the devil incarnate (or a spy from betfair trying to disuade us all to cash in;) )
However, you are that sure that he's the devil that you offer 10/1 to your mate for his tenner
Thus, you have a potential payout of his tenner PLUS 10/1...or thereabouts

Just read the sticky its much better than the above

KamiKazi

ok you have me convinced, you are a genius.

how about todays bets?

KamiKazi

just a quick question, i tried to pay money into my betfair account using 3v, but it says "Your bank has declined the transaction. Please refer to your card issuer for further details. ".

but i this isnt possible as my bank arent involved with 3v cards

smiling_time

quick q! how do you lay the loser using boyles sports online?

wb

KamiKazi wrote:

just a quick question, i tried to pay money into my betfair account using 3v, but it says "Your bank has declined the transaction. Please refer to your card issuer for further details. ".

but i this isnt possible as my bank arent involved with 3v cards

I dont think that they accept 3g vouchers. There are other ways to fund the account though such as bank transfer, cheque etc. (see the 'betfair explained' sticky)

wb

smiling_time wrote:

quick q! how do you lay the loser using boyles sports online?

You cant. You will need to open an account with one of the betting exchanges such as betfair or betdaq to lay horses.