Betfair Explained

wb

This is a sticky consisting of two parts.
-The first part is aimed at people who have not used betfair before, and want to learn.
-The Second Part is aimed at experienced betfair users, who want to get more of an edge when gambling.

From the outset, In case anyone thinks I am advertising betfair here - I am not.
I am not on commission, (but I wish I was ) and the only reason I am posting this is an attempt to help users/potential users avoid the mistakes - mistakes which cost you hard earned cash. I was talking to FTB, and we agreed that a sticky about betfair would be helpful, as there have been an increasing number of betfair questions recently. FTB knew that I am quite familiar with betfair, so asked me to write down some q&a's, which can be referred to.
What I hope to do here, is gradually add topics, consisting of frequently asked questions, and keep a sort of index in this post as to where you can find answers. I also want people to feel free to ask questions, and I will reply as best I can. I am no expert, but between backs & lays, I have a couple of thousand bets under my belt, so I have a good knowledge of how it works, and want to share it - hopefully helping people to profit or at least get more value from their gambling. As I say, I don’t know every single thing about the site, but will do my best to answer your questions, based on what I have learned. As I said, All of this is based on MY experience of a couple of thousand bets, you maydisagree with some of it, and feel free to say so if you do. This is an open thread. Feel free to ask any questions here



Part One: Beginning betfair - What you need to know.
This is for anyone who wants to open a betfair account and understand how it all works:

What is a betting exchange - See post 2
Bookie Vs Betfair (advantages/disadvantages) - See post 2
Opening an account - See post 3
Working out the odds - See post 4
Placing a bet - See post 5
Leaving Orders - See post 5
Laying - See post 6
Betting/Laying in the place market - See post 7
Getting around the €4 minimum bet - See post 8
Betting with 'play' money - See post 14


Part Two - For experienced users
These topics are for the experienced user and should not be attempted by any betfair novice as there will be plenty of people only waiting on you exploit your mistakes, and it will be a sure way to the poor house.

Betting In-Running & In-Play - See post 18
Bots - See post 19
Trading - See post 20
Arbing - See post 21
Exploiting a less than 100% book - See post 23
Dutching Calculator - See post 26
Hedging Calculator - See post 42
Betfair historica data - See post 80
Auto Betfair - See post 81

wb

What is a betting exchange?

A betting exchange is basically a website where you can strike a bet with other members on mainly sporting events. Let’s say you believe United will win a match - you can be sure there will be someone out there that thinks they will lose. Betfair acts as a conduit between the two opinions, and holds the money until the bet is setteled. Think of a bar, with 2 guys who have a bet while watching a match. Betfair would be the barman, who both guys give the money to, and he minds it until the match is over.
Betfair is not the only exchange out there, but it is the biggest. (It has the most members, therefore there is more liquidity (more money available on events) The 2nd biggest is betdaq. I don’t use my betdaq account much, so I will be only talking about betfair here, but if anyone else use other exchanges, please feel free to discuss them here.



Bookies V’s Betfair

Why open a betfair account if you already have one with the bookies?
There are a couple of reasons to do so.

Firstly, the odds available are almost always better on betfair. (about 20% better, and way higher for long shots) a horse that is available at 10/1 with a bookie, would generally be available at about 12/1 on betfair. Long shots are much better value. A 33/1 shot would usually be about 50/1 on betfair, and a 100/1 horse could be anywhere up to 200/1 to 999/1.

Secondly, you can lay horses/teams etc. on betfair (this is explained later)

Thirdly, unlike a bookie, betfair don’t care who wins or loses, as you are not striking the bet with them. It is the other users that you are striking a bet against. Betfair just act as a middleman. They make money by charging the winner of the bet commission. This commission starts at 5% but lowers as you place more bets. You can look into this on the website, but even with the commission taken, it is still far better value than betting with a bookie. If you lose the bet, you don’t pay any commission. Unlike a bookie, if you become very successful, they will not limit your bets or close your account.

Fourthly, You can back/lay a horse to be placed. Bookies rarely let you back a horse to be placed.
Please note that you can not back each-way on betfair. Also, you can not do multiple bets, trixies, Yankees etc. When you place a bet, it is a single bet, and can not be combined with other bets.

Fifthly, you can back ‘in running’ or ‘in play’. In other words, while the event is happening. This will be dealt with later, in the more advanced section

wb

Opening an account.

You do not need to lodge money to open account, but you need money in it to place a bet. Money can be lodged by various methods.

Some methods of depositing and withdrawing money have involve fees detailed below. If you have the option of Depositing/withdrawing for free (such as using a lazer card - do it, there is no point in giving money away needlessly)




Method/Min.Deposit required/Time it takes/Fee/ Min. Withdrawal required/Time it takes/Fee

Visa €15 Instant 1.5% None 2-5 days Free
Laser €15 Instant Free None 2-5 days Free - Reccommended
Mastercard €15 Instant 1.5% N/A N/A N/A
Visa Electron €15 Instant 1.5% None 2-5 days Free
Bank Transfer €15 1-3 days Ask your bank €30 2-5 days €10
Neteller €8 Instant Free (Promotional Period) €4 Max 24h Free
Moneybooker €15 Instant Free None Max 24h Free
Western Union €15 Max 16h Vary N/A N/A N/A
International Transfer €15 3 days Ask your bank €30 3-5 days €15
Cheques €15 10-15 days Free €15 Sent next day Issued free

wb

Working out odds - Traditional odds Vs Decimal

When I first had a look at betfair, it seemed very daunting, and appeared to be a myriad of numbers, all of which meant nothing to me. One of the most off-putting things was the way the odds were displayed. I had spent a few years gambling, dealing with traditional bookie odds, and did not want to change. But, once you get used to it, you will see the benefits, and I actually prefer it now.

How do you work out Decimal odds. The most simple way I can explain this is by telling you to take away one!

For example - If you see a horse on betfair, and it’s price is 13, you simply take away one. 13-1 = 12. Therefore the price in traditional odds is 12/1
A few more examples:

A horse that is displayed on betfair at 15.
15-1 = 14. Therefore the price in traditional odds is 14/1

A horse that is displayed on betfair at 3.5:
3.5-1 = 2.5. Therefore the price in traditional odds is 2.5/1 (5/2)

A horse that is displayed on betfair at 5.5.
5.5-1 = 4.5. Therefore the price in traditional odds is 4.5/1 (9/2)

wb

Placing a bet.

First of all, the minimum bet is €4.
There is a way of getting around this, but don’t try this until you have placed a few bets at €4 and understand how it works. When you get more comfortable with it, you can check out the 'getting around the betfair minimum’ topic, but for now, just use €4 stakes.
I will start off with backing horses, as I would not recommend laying to beginners.

1. Go to the markets on the left and select the market you want to back on. (we will use a horse race as an example)
2. Check the price of the selection. (this will be the blue box - ignore the pink box, that is for laying) The price will be displayed. If you are happy with this price, you click the box, enter your stake, and go ahead with the bet.

Note: The money sum underneath the selection indicates the amount of money to be matched at that price, and the boxes to the left of it are show how much is available when this sum is matched. BUT IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. Try to get used to placing bets before you worry about how much money is available etc.

Leaving Orders.

Let’s say you check the price of a horse, and you are not happy with it. Well, you can leave an order for a higher price if you wish, and hope it gets matched.

An example:

Lets say that 2.85 is the best possible price available when you check. If you think this is good value, you should take it, But, if you think the horse should be around 3, you can 'leave an order' for the higher price, but you will risk it not being matched. When placing the bet, you change the odds to your liking and submit the bet. The bet will remain ‘unmatched’ until if/when the odds rise. If the odds rise to the amount you have entered, the bet will be ‘matched’
This is one of the good things about betfair. It feels good to leave an order and get it matched at better value than what was available. But on the same token, it is very annoying if your order is not matched and the horse wins
Deciding whether to take the price is often hard. When you become a bit more experienced, you will get a better feel for when to leave an order. If you click on the horse name, a graph will appear showing the betting trends, which will give you an idea if the betting is drifting or not. Also, underneath the price, it will display how much money is available to be matched. If there is a load of money available to be matched at the low price, it is unlikely that your high price will be matched.
It is probably best to leave orders early, as they have a chance to get matched as the betting goes up and down through the day. There is no point in leaving an unrealistic order a few minutes before the off time
Any unmatched bets will be cancelled at the OFF

wb

Laying

Laying on betfair works like this:

If you really believe a horse will lose, you can decide to 'lay' it.

Let's say you want to lay a horse on betfair that is available at 6.0, for example. ( best lay odds are displayed in the pink box) - That works out at 5/1 in traditional odds (always take away one)

So, if you believe the horse will lose, and you want to win say ten quid on that belief, you simply enter €10 into the 'backers stake' box and go ahead with the bet.

If the horse loses, you keep the ten quid, but if it wins, you must pay out €50 because you more or less became a bookie and offered 5/1 (6.0 in betfair odds)

Just remember... It is not as easy as it sounds to just pick losers. If you do a lay at say 10, (9/1)
and the horse wins, you will need to have 9 more losers to break even. Any more winners and you are on a very slippery slope. Be careful and use small stakes when starting. Better still, paper trade for a while. If you need to get around the betfair minimum, check out the sticky


Leaving Orders when Laying


Regarding laying, the principle is the same when leaving orders, only it works the opposite way around. i.e. you leave an order for lower than what is currently available, as opposed to looking for a higher price when backing.

lets say the best available lay price in the pink box was 5, but you only wanted to offer 4, you could leave the order for 4 and hope it gets matched. Again, if you give it a couple of hours, and are not unrealistic, most bets will be matched because of the price fluctuations through the day.

Again, as with backing, all lay orders that are unmatched will be cancelled before the OFF

wb

Betting/laying in the place market:

I do not do this very often, as I have found it hard to make money out of. something to note here is that non runners do not change the place terms. For example, if you lay a horse in an 8 runner race, the payout will be on the first three horses past the post. Now, let’s say 2 of the horses are withdrawn, The payout is still for 3 places!!!
Don’t confuse the place market with bookies each way prices. They do not compare and the prices are completely different. It is a totally separate market than each way betting.

wb

Getting around the €4 Minimum bet

This seems complicated, but its easy when you get used to it.

To Back under the minimum

To use an example, Lets say you want to back a horse that has a price of 10.0 using €1:

1. Click on the horse as normal

2. In the 'Your Odds' box, change the odds to something ridicilous that wont get matched like 80 or something.

3. In the stake box, enter €4 as normal, and submit the bet (it wont get matched)

4. You will have an unmatched bet. Next, go to the stake box, and change the stake to €5, and submit the bet.
You will now be faced with 2 bets. one for €4 and one for €1

5. Delete the €4 bet, change the odds in the €1 bet to 10.0 and submit it.

---

Dont get mixed up when laying!!!

It is similar, but the vital difference is in the odds.

So for laying under the minimum:

Lets say a horse is 10, and you want to lay using €1

1. Click on the horse as normal

2. In the 'Your Odds' box, change the odds to something ridicilous that wont get matched like 1.01 or something.

3. In the stake box, enter €4 as normal, and submit the bet (it wont get matched)

4. You will have an unmatched bet. Next, go to the stake box, and change the stake to €5, and submit the bet.
You will now be faced with 2 bets. one for €4 and one for €1

5. Delete the €4 bet, change the odds in the €1 bet to 10.0 and submit it.

fade2black

A huge thanks for doing this Wbailey. I'm sure anyone who's not familiar with the betfair system and all those who have asked questions in the past, will be grateful to you.

kinivrus

quick q bout the laying, u said that when u win u get ur tenner back do u also get the odds as well or is it just the tenner

wb

kinivrus wrote:

quick q bout the laying, u said that when u win u get ur tenner back do u also get the odds as well or is it just the tenner

No, just the tenner. (If that is what you decide the stake to be)

When laying, you are acting like a bookie in a way. Think of when you place a €10 bet in the bookies. If the horse wins, the bookie has to pay you the odds, if it loses, he keeps your tenner.

So pretend you are a bookie when laying. If you lay a horse using €10 as the backers stake, you will be keeping the tenner if the horse loses. However, if the horse wins, you must pay-out at the odds agreed.

A Simple example of laying where the stake is €5.

lets say the horse is 11 on betfair (10/1 in traditional odds)
Now lets say you really think it will lose, and lay it using €5 backers stake.
If the horse loses, you keep the €5 - simple.
However, if it wins, you must pay-out €50

For the above bet to take place, you will need at least €50 in your account to cover the bet. The €50 in this case that you may have to pay-out is known as your liability

Hope this makes sense!

wb

By the way, if you go to the betfair website, it lest you play around with the odds, and enter prices, to see what your liablility etc. on a bet would be. Obvioulsy it wont let you place a bet if you don't have an account, but It is handy way to learn by entering different stakes etc.

scojones

Cheers for this wbailey, I opened up a betfair account months ago but only started actively using it on Monday. You've cleared up a few questions I had about it. I mainly use it for laying, or for betting on horses who I believe have very good chances (Picot De Say yesterday, Young Mick the day before). I still go back to paddypower for the lucky 15 and the trixie bets.

masterK

wbailey wrote:

By the way, if you go to the betfair website, it lest you play around with the odds, and enter prices, to see what your liablility etc. on a bet would be. Obvioulsy it wont let you place a bet if you don't have an account, but It is handy way to learn by entering different stakes etc.

Nice write wbailey, I'm sure it will be very helpful to a lot of people.

Incidentally there is a site called http://www.playbetfair.com/ which as it's name suggests you can make bets with play money, it's good for those new to betfair.

wb

sjones wrote:

I still go back to paddypower for the lucky 15 and the trixie bets.

Yeah, thats a downside to betfair for fans of multiple bets.

You could 'manually' place doubles or trebles I suposse (staking the winnings on the next event), but it is just not practical and is not really designed for mulitples. Im not a huge fan of multiples but I must admit that I do an odd fun multiple (mainly trixies) in my paddypower account. I also use it for the odd each-way double

wb

masterK wrote:

Nice write wbailey, I'm sure it will be very helpful to a lot of people.

Incidentally there is a site called http://www.playbetfair.com/ which as it's name suggests you can make bets with play money, it's good for those new to betfair.

Never even knew that! that is a very handy tool.

You learn something new everyday. I'll put it in the index in the first post. Thanks masterk

Drakar

I haven't played with this enough, but if you use the code tags you can get a table to look like a table (oh, great post btw!), eg:

Method  /Min.Deposit required/Process Time/Fee/ Min. Withdrawal required/Time it takes/Fee

[B]Visa[/B]                   €15        Instant [COLOR="Red"]1.5%[/COLOR]     None 2-5 days      [COLOR="Blue"]Free[/COLOR]
[B]Laser[/B]                  €15        Instant [COLOR="blue"]Free[/COLOR]     None 2-5 days   [COLOR="blue"]Free[/COLOR] - [B][COLOR="SeaGreen"]Reccommended[/COLOR][/B]
[B]Mastercard[/B]             €15        Instant [COLOR="red"]1.5%[/COLOR] N/A N/A N/A 
[B]Visa Electron[/B]          €15        Instant [COLOR="red"]1.5%[/COLOR] None 2-5 days [COLOR="blue"]Free [/COLOR]
[B]Bank Transfer[/B]          €15       1-3 days Ask your bank €30 2-5 days €10 
[B]Neteller[/B]                €8        Instant [COLOR="blue"]Free[/COLOR] (Promotional Period) €4 Max 24h [COLOR="blue"]Free[/COLOR] 
[B]Moneybooker[/B]            €15        Instant [COLOR="blue"]Free[/COLOR] None Max 24h [COLOR="blue"]Free [/COLOR]
[B]Western Union[/B]          €15        Max 16h Vary N/A N/A N/A 
[B]International Transfer[/B] €15         3 days Ask your bank €30 3-5 days €15 
[B]Cheques[/B]                €15     10-15 days [COLOR="blue"]Free[/COLOR] €15 Sent next day Issued [COLOR="blue"]free[/COLOR]

wb

Betting in-running, & betting in play:


I don’t do this a lot myself, as it can be a minefield sometimes with prices changing rapidly left right and centre. You have got to be as quick as a flash in this market, and have b*lls of steel in my opinion. I must admit though, I will do it If I have an idea about how a horse will run. For example, if you have noted that a horse likes come up late in the last half furlong, or so - Other people may not have copped this, and will think it is losing, and start offering inflated prices, which you can take advantage of. There are a few things to consider if you are going to back in-running. I will deal with some issues that I have come across while backing in-running:







The betfair time delay.
Because betfair don’t let you carry over orders/bets into the in running market, it takes a few seconds to type enter the stake and process the bet. Coupled with the fact that betfair only refresh the prices every 3 seconds (I think) makes it about a 5 or 6 second delay.This is a HUGE amount of time in the in-running market. Because of the time it takes to process bets, it is almost impossible to bet under the minimum, so all bets will have to be over €4. If you are to consider in-running, it is essential that you get a bot, one of the free ones will do. (Bots will be explained later).
If you don’t have a broadband connection, don’t attempting it either.


TV Pictures - time delay.
The fastest TV pictures available are SIS, (The ones the bookies have) and apparently, the Irish feed is a second or two ahead of the British for some reason! This costs a few thousand euro a year, so lets forget that option!
ATR (At the Races) and RUK have a delay of about 3 seconds, which is quite significant when combined with the delay in processing the bet. Sky + is about 2 seconds slower than Sky Digital. Digital T.V. is slower than cable, and cable is slower than terrestrial. Although I don’t think many people use ariel’s to get C4 or BBC these days, but it is the fastest. You won’t get any faster than the guy at the track with a laptop though! Anyway , I think you should get the picture by now, If you have digital TV, and have the option of changing to cable/terrestrial while the racing is on, you must do it for in-running betting.

Know the silks.
This is essential if you want to profit from in-running. If you don’t know who‘s who, don’t bother, because you will only back/lay the wrong horse. Also, don’t take the commentators view as gospel. He is just one bloke, who makes mistakes like anyone else. I read in the Racing Post’s book about betting exchanges that some people will turn the sound of the TV off, so they won’t be influenced by the commentary, but I must admit, I have not tried this. Just remember that if a commentator says something during a race on C4 of a Saturday afternoon, Millions of people across Ireland and Britain will have heard it too. Sometimes this can be an advantage if you disagree with his reading of the race.



Football - in-play.
A less volatile market would be the football one. Note that only matches that are shown live on TV are available in-play for obvious reasons. Sometimes, I like to watch a game for about 20 minutes, to get a feel for how it is going, and then place a bet. But obviously a lot of other people are watching the match, so the prices will be changing accordingly. Bear in mind that a match being televised from an other country may have a signifant time delay. If the match is on in Spain for example, you can be sure the local stations in spain are a good few seconds ahead of RTE 2 or whatever. I can’t say too much about football, as it is not something I have managed to make a long term profit out of.

wb

Bots:

A Bot is basically short for robot - something that automates certain tasks, such as placing bets and updating odds. There are a few free ones and a few pay ones available that are compatible with betfair. If you are to consider in-running or trading (trading will be discussed later) it is essential that you have a bot. I use betangel basic, which is free to download, There is a more advanced version that you have to pay for, but the free one covers my needs for the moment. I don’t use any other bots, so I will only be refering to betangel while talking about bots.
There are a few advantages that a bot offers which can give you a slight edge above other non bot betfair users. (Although bots are becoming more and more popular by the month). When you log in, you will be faced with a screen similar in layout to your normal betfair screen.
With a good broadband connection, the prices are automatically updated every second. These updates are only a small edge, but you need every edge you can get in this game.
There is no time delay/confirmation screen when placing a bet. Once you enter the stakes you want to use, they will stay there, even carrying over into the in-running market. Then when you see the price you want, you only have to click once, and the bet is fired in immediately. When a price is coming in, or going out, the normal betfair is only refreshed every few seconds, so you may miss out on a price if you don’t have a bot. When you are trading (I will discuss this later) it is essential to have a bot to catch these in-between prices

wb

Trading.

Because you can both back and lay on betting exchanges, trading on horses/football etc. is now a way to make some low risk money. Trading on horses or football etc, works on the same principle as the stock market or any other trading place. What you are aiming to do is buy low and sell high, except instead of buying shares, you are buying the horses price, and selling it on. Trading on horses can be done manually, or with a bot.


Let me give you an example of how to get a free bet (provided prices go your way) using €10 stakes:

Lets say I see a horse available at 5 on betfair, but I feel that this price is quite high for that horse, and have a feeling it will lower. Learning to spot these trends comes with time, and watching the markets.
Firstly, I back the horse at 5. I then wait for the price to change.
Let’s say the horse price comes in as expected and drops down to 4.
You then lay it at 4.


If the horse wins, I gain €40 on the back bet that I took at 5, but lose €30 on the lay bet that I took at 4, so the final outcome of a win is €10 profit.

If the horse loses, I will have lost my €10 that I backed at 5, but gained €10 on the lay that I did at 4, so the final outcome of the horse losing would be €0 lost, and €0 gained.

So basically, you have a free bet. If it wins, you get a tenner, if it loses you get nothing. But you lose nothing either way. Another option here would be to adjust the stakes, so you can profit no matter who wins, but In my opinion, it takes to long to do this manually in a fast moving market, so I use a bot to adjust the stakes, which does it instantly, and ensures a profit no matter what the outcome of the race.

BUT….
This is a simple example, and in the real world, sometimes the price will not change like you want it to. If the horse price rises to 6 for example, and then you lay it, you are guaranteeing a loss. Therefore, if you want to try this, I would suggest that you do so on a horse that you were going to back anyway.
Place your bet, and if the price comes in, lay it and enjoy a risk free bet, and if the price drifts, leave it alone, and consider it a normal back bet. If you get serious about trading though, you must always bail out even if it means taking a loss.





Trading with a bot.

If you want to take trading more seriously, you need a bot. I must state here that I am only doing this a few weeks, so I am still learning. The best time to trade is 10 minutes before the off, because of the amount of money going in and out. The advantages of using a bot are the 1 click bets and the 1 second refresh rate. You could back a horse, then the price may lower for only a second or two (this change would not be seen on the normal screen), but if you are fast enough - Bang! You fire the bet in and move on……..
Also, there is an option to ‘green up’. This means instead of taking a free bet like in the example above, it will spread the free bet money on all the other horses ensuring a profit no matter what horse wins. Believe me - This is a fantastic feeling.
But, sometimes, things wont go your way, and you MUST bail out taking the loss if the price keeps rising. Depending on your stakes, you may be only making a few cent on a race, so to lose a few euro could take dozens of trades to make up. I currently use €20 as my stake, and usually make anything between 5 cent and 1 euro on a race if things go right. So as you can see, it is a lot of effort for a small amount, but not too risky if you know what you are doing. I wont go into any more detail at this point, as there are videos available on the bet angel website explaining the whole process, also, I am only learning myself. But if anyone wants to discuss it further, feel free to ask.

On a personal level, a great feeling for me when trading is 'greening up' - and you sit back and watch a race knowing you will profit no matter what wins. That said, I don't get the same sense of satisfaction and accomplishment from trading as I do from picking a winner from form reading. When trading, you must change your mindset, and not let your feelings get in the way. I try to become emotionless when trading, and just deal with figures, and that takes some of the joy of the sport away from it. But money is money after all.

wb

Arbs.

Arbing is basically buying money risk free. This can be done when, on the rare occasion, a bookie is offering a better price than betfair. To do this, you will need several bookie accounts, along with a betfair account. Here is an example, using €100 stakes:

1. You Check the prices on betfair for a race, and Horse X is available to lay at 4

2. You then go to odds checker, and look up the race, and notice that a certain bookie has Horse X available to back at 5
3. Next, you back the horse with the bookie who is offering 5, and lay it on betfair at 4

The outcome?

If the horse wins, with €100 stakes, your bookie will pay you €400, but because you laid it on betfair at 4, you will have to pay-out €300. Therefore the total profit is €100. To do this properly, you need numerous betting accounts to take advantage of whoever is offering the best price. You will need to keep a ‘floating’ bank account, which allows you to deposit and withdraw to all your bookie accounts and also to your betfair account in order to transfer the funds from one account to the other to keep all the banks functional and topped up.
Again this is a simple example, and the price difference in reality would rarely be that big. Also, in the real world, it may not always go your way. By the time you back it with the bookie, the price may have changed on betfair for example.
There are bots available (such as 'value horse finder' which scan the markets for you and beep which alerts you to when and where an arb is possible, but they cost about £100 sterling.

wb

I have added some new sections to this thread. The first part of the thread was aimed at people who are new to betfair, but the second part is aimed at people who are experienced using it, but want to get a better edge when gambling.

Please see post number one, which contains an index of topics.

Regards,

Wayne

bohsman

Is there any easy formula for working out how to take advantage of a market- the Birmingham - Newcastle market hit 98% in running, Im guessing I multiply by the amount of possible outcomes, in this case 3 win, draw, lose?

Cheers.

wb

bohsman wrote:

Is there any easy formula for working out how to take advantage of a market- the Birmingham - Newcastle market hit 98% in running, Im guessing I multiply by the amount of possible outcomes, in this case 3 win, draw, lose?

Cheers.

I'm don't know of any quick forumulas where you can work it out bohsman - To be honest, I reckon you would need a bot. By the time you work it out manually, the market usually has changed. I'm not aware of any free ones that will do it, but BET IE can be used for dutching, hedging & trading.
I don't use it myself, but I know a number of people who rate it highly. It costs about £97 stg. and would probably be only worth it if you were going to be in front of the betfair screen all day.

This explains it more:

http://www.racing-index.com/betting-exchanges/bet-ie.html

wb

You got me thinking about this bohsman, so I looked into it more to see what I could come up with

There is a way to work it out. You need to convert the betfair prices to percentages:

To keep things simple, lets say that the prices for a match were:

Draw - 2.0
Team A to win - 4.0
Team B to win - 5.0

This would represent a 95% book.

To get the percentage for each bet, you divide 100 by the betfair price, so:

Draw = 100/2 = 50%
Team A to win = 100/4 = 25%
Team B to win = 100/5 = 20%

Add up the above percentages and you will see how it represents a 95% book. (50 + 25 + 20)

To work out how to exploit the market, you simply stake the % figure you got earlier - in money.

Place

€50 on the draw @ 2.0
€25 on Team A to win @ 4.0
€20 of Team B to win @ 5.0

This would cost a total of €95, but your return would be €100 whatever the result.

Although you would still profit after the above example, commission must be considered. Also, as mentioned before, if the prices changed while you were doing it, you would be screwed. You would at least need to have one click betting (betangel basic is free and can do this). If it was something you wanted to do using large stakes, you would need BET IE which works out the stakes for you, and places the three bets together with one click.

Hope this helps

wb

Better Still

This will work it out for you:

Just enter the odds of each here, and it will tell you what stakes to use.

http://www.oddschecker.com/powertools/dutching.html

bohsman

Cheers, had been wondering what Dutching was.

wolfe

Can someone please advise me on a prediciment i have!

I have put around €70 on a horse (at antepost prices) to win a race on saturday. If the horse wins i stand to win around €1000 or if its placed about €220.

I am thinking of laying the horse now to ensure i win something. I think it is abot 9.0 on betfair for this.

I have never used betfair before.

1. What amount should i lay to ensure i clear about €500 win or lose?
2. There are 3 columns in the lay side, one pink and 2 white, what is the difference.
3. Do i need to have €500 in my account in case it wins?

wb

wolfe wrote:

Can someone please advise me on a prediciment i have!

I have put around €70 on a horse (at antepost prices) to win a race on saturday. If the horse wins i stand to win around €1000 or if its placed about €220.

I am thinking of laying the horse now to ensure i win something. I think it is abot 9.0 on betfair for this.

I have never used betfair before.

1. What amount should i lay to ensure i clear about €500 win or lose?
2. There are 3 columns in the lay side, one pink and 2 white, what is the difference.
3. Do i need to have €500 in my account in case it wins?

Hi wolfe, Can you give me some more details...

1) Did you do the bet each-way or to win?
2) Did you do it in the bookies?
3) How much did you put on it, and what price did you take on it?

wolfe

Sorry, I backed it a good few times online at various prices on Paddypower, Boylesports, ladbrokes etc.

Backed it each way (small bets) from 33/1, 20/1, 16/1 downwards.

The horse is currently trading at about 8/1 (best price) or thereabouts with the traditional bookies. Will probably go off at around 6/1 or so.

wb

If you got 33/1 etc, and it is now 8/1, you will easily be able to lay it off.

BUT -

There is no such thing as each way betting on betfair, so you will need to seperate your bet into win and place bets, and lay it off in the win market, and the place market.

How much do you stand to gain in total if the horse wins?
How much do you stand to gain if the horse is does not win, but is placed?

How much have you spent so far on the bets?

wb

In short, to work this out, I would need the EXACT details of EACH bet.

How much, what price etc.

wolfe

Here goes. Backed it from 50's.

6.50 EW 50 TO 1
5.00 EW 20 TO 1
5.00 EW 16 TO 1
17.50 EW 14 TO 1
3.50 win 10 TO 1

wb

wolfe wrote:

Here goes. Backed it from 50's.

6.50 EW 50 TO 1
5.00 EW 20 TO 1
5.00 EW 16 TO 1
17.50 EW 14 TO 1
3.50 win 10 TO 1

Ok wolfe. I'm just working on a few things at the moment. I'll get back to you on this before the day is out

wb

What is the name of the horse wolfe? I need to check the current price..

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

What is the name of the horse wolfe?

wb

finnpark wrote:

He said it was 9's on betfair, but that was earlier today. I had not got enough details about his bookie bets to work it out at that stage. I need to check the current price if he wants to do an accurate lay off. As you should know, the price has more than likely changed since earlier on, that is why I dont want to assume that the price is still 9's
I could go ahead and use 9, but that may cost him money and we dont like doing that to people now do we?

finnpark

wbailey wrote:

He said it was 9's on betfair, but that was earlier today. I had not got enough details about his bookie bets to work it out at that stage. I need to check the current price if he wants to do an accurate lay off. As you should know, the price has more than likely changed since earlier on, that is why I dont want to assume that the price is still 9's
I could go ahead and use 9, but that may cost him money and we dont like doing that to people now do we?

Well I want to know which horse he has backed from 50/1 into 8/1, sounds crazy to me. Amadeus Wolfe by any chance?

wb

Probably.

I presume it is for the 2000 guineas, and the only ones around that price at the moment are Amadeus Wolf, and Horatio Nelson, but I can find either being 50/1 at any stage. If he got this right, it looks like he can get one hell of a lay-off, or a free bet if he wants.

wolfe

you guessed the clue to the horse is in my username!!!!!!!!!!!

wolfe

the clue to the horse is in my username!!!!!

Got it at 50'S for the guineas back in Sept before its last run.Been waiting a long time for this race!

wb

First things first, if you need to learn how to convert odds to betfair prices, see post 4 of this thread.

Are you completely sure you want to lay this off? Looks like you may have gotten a great deal there.

Anyway - Please check the figures, but the way I work it out is as follows:

Because there is no each-way betting on betfair, your bookie bets need to be split separately into win & place bets.

Regarding the win, you have staked €37.50 , and if it comes first, you will earn €785. This gives you an average price of 20.95/1 - but we will need to round this down to 20/1 as betfair does not have such small divisions in price. Now, to change your 20/1 into betfair prices, you add one.
So you have the betfair equivalent of €37.50 staked on the betfair price of 21

The current lay price on betfair is 9.4. If you lay this horse on betfair using an €84.22 backers stake, you can lock in an automatic profit of €42.15 no matter what happens after 5% commission. You will need to have €707.49 in the account in case the horse loses.



Now, to the place part of the bet:

This profit here is much shorter. You have a total of €37.50 staked with the bookie to win €141 if the horse is placed. This gives you an average price of 3.76/1. Converted to betfair prices, we have to round down very slightly, and assume you have 3.7/1 this is expressed as 4.7 on betfair.
So you have €37.50 on the horse to be placed at 4.7. The current lay price for the horse to be placed on betfair is 3.3. If you lay this horse to be placed at 3.3 using a €54.23 backers stake, you will lock in an automatic profit of €14.02, but you will need €86.25 in the account to cover the bet.


So to re-cap:

Lay the horse in the win market using €84.22
Lay the horse in the place market using €54.23

You will need to have a total of €793.73 in the account to cover both bets.

You will gain €56.17 no matter what happens.

Some things to consider:

1.)Don’t forget that this is assuming that you are using the prices at the time of writing.
2.) If the horse wins, will you be happy with gaining €56.17 when you could have gotten nearly a grand?

3) You don’t have to lay-off the whole bet, play around with the figures, and decide whether you want to guarantee a free bet, lay the lot off to lock in a profit, or lay some of it off etc. here is a hedging calculator to help you work it out:

http://www.oddschecker.com/powertools/hedging_calculator.html

The above calculator uses betfair odds.



If you do decide to lay it off, and you need help placing the lay, just ask

wolfe

wbailey wrote:

Are you completely sure you want to lay this off? Looks like you may have gotten a great deal there.

Thanks for the detailed info on this. It appears i still have a lot to learn about betfair. I think i might just hold off and keep my fingers crossed for saturday!

wb

While it looks like you have a good deal, if you want to make sure you dont lose any money at all, you can

- Take a free bet.

To get yourself a free bet:



1) Lay the win (current price 9.2) using €37.50
2) Lay the place (current price 3.3) using €37.50





The outcome?

A) The horse wins:
You would win €785 with the bookie for the win, and €141 for the place, but you would owe out €393.75 on betfair. So if the horse came first you gain €532.25


The horse does not come first, but is placed:
You would win €141 with the bookie for the place part of the bet but lose €37.50 for the win part. You would win €37.50 for laying the win on betfair, but you would owe out €86.25 for laying the horse in the place market. So if the horse does not come first, but is placed, you gain €54.75


c) The horse does not win or place:
You lose the full bet with the bookies (€75.00) but you gain €37.50 for laying the win, and €37.50 for laying the place on betfair. So if the horse does not win or place, you gain €0.00, but you lose €0.00

Anyway, whatever you decide to do, you are in a good position, and good luck with it

finnpark

A bit off topic here but I backed Amadeus Wolfe at 12/1 on Europe Boy's advice, see its down to 6/1 now. Nice one:)

masterK

This may be of interest for those new to Betfair

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470028564/202-4275714-9075028

wb

masterK wrote:

This may be of interest for those new to Betfair

http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470028564/202-4275714-9075028

Looks good masterk. While we are at it, can I reccommend this book:


http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/1905153023/qid=1146823469/sr=2-3/ref=sr_2_1_3/026-0182848-5693258

It was by far the best gambling book that I have read. I did a review of it somewhere else, Ill have a look later to see if I can root it out.

Kent Brockman

wbailey wrote:

Bots:

A Bot is basically short for robot - something that automates certain tasks, such as placing bets and updating odds. There are a few free ones and a few pay ones available that are compatible with betfair. If you are to consider in-running or trading (trading will be discussed later) it is essential that you have a bot. I use betangel basic, which is free to download, There is a more advanced version that you have to pay for, but the free one covers my needs for the moment. I don’t use any other bots, so I will only be refering to betangel while talking about bots.
There are a few advantages that a bot offers which can give you a slight edge above other non bot betfair users. (Although bots are becoming more and more popular by the month). When you log in, you will be faced with a screen similar in layout to your normal betfair screen.
With a good broadband connection, the prices are automatically updated every second. These updates are only a small edge, but you need every edge you can get in this game.
There is no time delay/confirmation screen when placing a bet. Once you enter the stakes you want to use, they will stay there, even carrying over into the in-running market. Then when you see the price you want, you only have to click once, and the bet is fired in immediately. When a price is coming in, or going out, the normal betfair is only refreshed every few seconds, so you may miss out on a price if you don’t have a bot. When you are trading (I will discuss this later) it is essential to have a bot to catch these in-between prices

Thanks for the info. Just downloaded that free BOT and tried to use it but it asked for my betfair login details. Wasn't too confident about doing this so i was just wondering if this is normal practice before I put in my betfair password?

wb

Kent Brockman wrote:

Thanks for the info. Just downloaded that free BOT and tried to use it but it asked for my betfair login details. Wasn't too confident about doing this so i was just wondering if this is normal practice before I put in my betfair password?

Yes.
Because the bot needs to interact with your betair account, it needs your log-in details. Once you log-in, you will be faced with a screen similar to betfair. I can give you my word that it is entirely safe, and regulary used by many people including me.
Once you select the market you wish to gamble on, make sure you change the refrest screen to every 1 second, instead of five. I would also reccommend turning off the 'confirmaiton' of bets. once you do this, you can enjoy one click betting, but just be careful not to click on the wrong button, as the bet is fired in on one click, and there is no going back.

Philbert

wbailey wrote:

Trading with a bot.

If you want to take trading more seriously, you need a bot. I must state here that I am only doing this a few weeks, so I am still learning. The best time to trade is 10 minutes before the off, because of the amount of money going in and out. The advantages of using a bot are the 1 click bets and the 1 second refresh rate. You could back a horse, then the price may lower for only a second or two (this change would not be seen on the normal screen), but if you are fast enough - Bang! You fire the bet in and move on……..
Also, there is an option to ‘green up’. This means instead of taking a free bet like in the example above, it will spread the free bet money on all the other horses ensuring a profit no matter what horse wins. Believe me - This is a fantastic feeling.
But, sometimes, things wont go your way, and you MUST bail out taking the loss if the price keeps rising. Depending on your stakes, you may be only making a few cent on a race, so to lose a few euro could take dozens of trades to make up. I currently use €20 as my stake, and usually make anything between 5 cent and 1 euro on a race if things go right. So as you can see, it is a lot of effort for a small amount, but not too risky if you know what you are doing. I wont go into any more detail at this point, as there are videos available on the bet angel website explaining the whole process, also, I am only learning myself. But if anyone wants to discuss it further, feel free to ask.

On a personal level, a great feeling for me when trading is 'greening up' - and you sit back and watch a race knowing you will profit no matter what wins. That said, I don't get the same sense of satisfaction and accomplishment from trading as I do from picking a winner from form reading. When trading, you must change your mindset, and not let your feelings get in the way. I try to become emotionless when trading, and just deal with figures, and that takes some of the joy of the sport away from it. But money is money after all.

Hi,

Thanks for all the helpful information so far. I have one question regarding trading. Is there any trend to the way the prices move (in general) through out the day and up to the last few seconds before the race? ie: Do prices tend to start higher and eventually settle slightly lower (on average), or the other way around? Or not at all..

Tia

masterK

Philbert wrote:

Hi,

Thanks for all the helpful information so far. I have one question regarding trading. Is there any trend to the way the prices move (in general) through out the day and up to the last few seconds before the race? ie: Do prices tend to start higher and eventually settle slightly lower (on average), or the other way around? Or not at all..

Tia

There's no real answer to that question. Some prices start higher and shorten while others start lower and drift. The skill in trading is trying to predict selections that will drift/shorten and then back or lay accordingly.

If you ever see the book percentage (the number above the back column) going over 105% then the prices in that race will generally shorten as the percentage figure will get closer to 100% before the race meaning the average price will be less, however this doesn't happen too often and even if it does it still doesn't mean every horse will shorten.

IMO in order to be able to trade with any success you need to have some notion of what price a horse should be in your opinion, if it's much higher than that price then it is a good nomination to back in the hope of trading off at a lower price.