new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Captain Red Beard · 29-01-2020 12:52pm

Deleted User wrote: »

okie dokie.

You must have the patience of a saint.

Oranage2 · 29-01-2020 12:54pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Fine. Whatever. I've lived in Shenzhen, and visited HK every day or second day while I was there. Not like going to a different country, but I don't think it's a particularly important point for this thread.

You would have gone to a border, gone through immigration, gotten an exit stamp from China and then gotten an entry stamp from Hong Kong. then on the way back you would have gone to another border, gone through Hong Kong immigration to exit Hong Kong then you would have to go through Chinese immigration, they'll check your visa and maybe ask them to you some questions before you get an entry stamp. If that's not like going to another country then I don't know what is

creditcarder · 29-01-2020 1:01pm

clever user name wrote: »

Things starting to get a bit more troublesome here (in Xi'an) in terms of day to day stuff. Buses are gone, the subway is still open (for now), but they've closed a bunch of the exits (weird). Need to show your ID when taking the subway (made this mistake yesterday lol). They're also checking peoples temperatures at the entrances. Didi is gone, China's version of Uber/Hailo. That means taxis are pretty busy and not easy to get. Shops/supermarkets are ok at the moment for most things, but it's harder to find bread and vegetables. I spent an hour today looking for onions, didn't find them. There goes my plans to make a nice stew :pac:. Masks? HA, good luck finding one of them. Most restaurants are closed. While this is not entirely unusual given it's still the New Year holiday, it's still far more than the norm. Talk of shops and supermarkets being replenished in the coming days, we'll see about that. All of this seems to be pretty much standard for most parts of China now. Government is urging places to close to help stop the spread.

So not tooooooo many issues at the moment, most people are just staying inside. Things will no doubt get worse in the short term. Long term, who knows. Hopefully things start to at least take a turn for the better in the next 3/4? weeks

Hmmmm, that is worrying tbh, and kind of shocking.

29-01-2020 1:05pm

Captain Red Beard wrote: »

You must have the patience of a saint.

I've taught in China for over a decade... you develop patience (both for living there and the teaching aspects) or leave. It's really that simple.

Anyway, I'm used to the nitpicking on boards.

clever user name · 29-01-2020 1:10pm

Deleted User wrote: »

From what I've heard, everyone is waiting for the weather to heat up, and until then, everything is going to be shut down. So.. another month and a bit before any useful amount of heat.

I'd recommend getting out. While the Chinese can manage the various hoops to jump through, and have the network of contacts to gain knowledge of where to get food, foreigners will be left out of the loop. I wouldn't want to be stuck in Xi'an during the whole period.

I have a dog, so I can't just up and leave unfortunately. The process of getting him home would take at least a couple of months, and that's without all this sh**te going on. Absolutely no chance in hell I'm leaving without him, so batten down the hatches I guess :pac:

I have plenty of food, and there's still plenty available. No really worried about that.

Snow Garden · 29-01-2020 1:14pm

Oranage2 wrote: »

Shenzhen to HK is like leaving a country, you need an exit stamp from Chinese immigration and if your visa is single entry you can't return to mainland China, also you can't just go from Hong Kong to shenzhen without a Chinese visa. There are immigration borders there.

Yes this was true the last time I was in China 6 months ago.

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-01-2020 1:16pm

Map from 11pm yesterday shows 6,057 (official). Only a very slight slowdown in China, but some new countries finding cases (UAE, Tibet). Has overtaken SARS case-wise.

Oranage2 · 29-01-2020 1:18pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I've taught in China for over a decade... you develop patience (both for living there and the teaching aspects) or leave. It's really that simple.

Anyway, I'm used to the nitpicking on boards.

Sorry if you think I'm nitpicking, I didn't mean to. As you've traveled from China to Hong so many times you've probably just became accustomed to the process. HK is part of China but I just wanted to let others who may be reading this know That it's not that easy to cross unless you've all the correct visa, then it's very easy.

Fr_Dougal · 29-01-2020 1:21pm

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Map from 11pm yesterday shows 6,057 (official). Only a very slight slowdown in China, but some new countries finding cases (UAE, Tibet). Has overtaken SARS case-wise.

We’ll start seeing real infections rate figures now that we’re not solely reliant on China.

Nijmegen · 29-01-2020 1:35pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Very few foreigners ever travel by land from China to another country, so it's not a big deal.

And this fear of becoming stuck is being overhyped in many ways. Turkish airlines is still flying from Xi'an direct to many European cities. As are Beijing capital airlines. And that's without counting the airlines like KLM who have longer routes.

I suspect we will see some of them shut down eventually but other routes will remain open.

Totally, I was more thinking that if the air bridge gets shut - either because airlines shut it down themselves or, more likely, governments demand it - your ways out are quite limited. Particularly if they're shutting down inter-city transport in the meantime.

With these things, if it goes it'll go quickly. If you're sitting in China and being kept home, your workplace not functioning - ala the Uni - etc, I'd get out. The price of a plane ticket versus the chance of being stuck there if it goes to hell and Johnny Foreigner is going to be low on the list to look after.

creditcarder · 29-01-2020 1:48pm

You know Dengue fever kills 50,000 people worldwide and infects 500 million people per year? Oddly shocking statistic, and it makes me feel oddly better about this virus for some strange reason. Hyperbole as the virus and trasmission is completely different, but does, perhaps, put things into perspective in a weird way.

clever user name · 29-01-2020 2:02pm

creditcarder wrote: »

You know Dengue fever kills 50,000 people worldwide and infects 500 million people per year? Oddly shocking statistic, and it makes me feel oddly better about this virus for some strange reason. Hyperbole as the virus and trasmission is completely different, but does, perhaps, put things into perspective in a weird way.

Funnily enough I spent a year in Southern Thailand and actually got Dengue. It's feels like a really bad dose of the flu, not very pleasant thing to have. Thankfully I didn't get the severe hemorrhagic version. Had a student who got a that, he ended up intensive care. To be honest Dengue is literally potluck in that part of the world, you simply cannot avoid mosquito bites, I was just unlucky. After 3 days I was ok, and couple of extra days to get my strength back.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 2:03pm

Bomb threats in Hong Kong if border to China isnt closed
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3047898/unexploded-ied-found-shenzhen-border-control-point

volchitsa · 29-01-2020 2:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

HK is part of China now, so it's not a "country". Even before, going from Shenzhen to HK wasn't a big deal, and hardly considered to be going to another country.

That's what I'm saying: they claim it's all one country, but Air China refise to refund our tickets to HK where they are refunding flights to Guangzhou no problem.

And, as we are actually going to Guangzhou, and only transiting though HK, if they then close the border between HK and mainland China, we will be completely stuck.

So it looks to me like it's one country whenever it suits them, and two when it might cost them money.

Yurt2 · 29-01-2020 2:20pm

Quite frankly, the greater danger now is if all these shutdowns persist and profiteering with foodstuffs takes hold, social unrest is a real possibility.

Mainland Chinese have a scarcity mentality being just a generation removed from food insecurity and famine. This is my pet theory, but I hold it's why you see people queuing for gaudy Italian handbags or paying thousands of dollars online for limited edition Nikes. The collective memory of want will mean that if certain food items become thin on the ground and unscrupulous individuals profiteer from it, things will get bad.

This is quite apart from an already sluggish economy with some crazy examples of misallocated capital.

China doesn't have the social or civic infrastructure to cope with an economic jolt that will harm the economy for months on end.

29-01-2020 2:21pm

clever user name wrote: »

Funnily enough I spent a year in Southern Thailand and actually got Dengue. It's feels like a really bad dose of the flu, not very pleasant thing to have. Thankfully I didn't get the severe hemorrhagic version. Had a student who got a that, he ended up intensive care. To be honest Dengue is literally potluck in that part of the world, you simply cannot avoid mosquito bites, I was just unlucky. After 3 days I was ok, and couple of extra days to get my strength back.

You need to be very careful of not getting a second strike of Dengue as that is where it can especially turn nasty.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 2:26pm

Yurt! wrote: »

China doesn't have the social or civic infrastructure to cope with an economic jolt that will harm the economy for months on end.

That will then hit Australia and the mines, US and everywhere really will be affected.

at1withmyself · 29-01-2020 2:30pm

volchitsa wrote: »

That's what I'm saying: they claim it's all one country, but Air China refise to refund our tickets to HK where they are refunding flights to Guangzhou no problem.

And, as we are actually going to Guangzhou, and only transiting though HK, if they then close the border between HK and mainland China, we will be completely stuck.

So it looks to me like it's one country whenever it suits them, and two when it might cost them money.

China was handed back hong kong in 1997, at the time it was agreed 1 country and 2 systems for 50 years so its another while before its run as 1 country.

Not being smart but I would recommend taking some time to read up on the countries you plan to visit.

29-01-2020 2:31pm

Yurt! wrote: »

The collective memory of want will mean that if certain food items become thin on the ground and unscrupulous individuals profiteer from it, things will get bad.

Reports coming in that the price of bats has more than doubled in the past week.

Yurt2 · 29-01-2020 2:31pm

pc7 wrote: »

That will then hit Australia and the mines, US and everywhere really will be affected.

These are countries that have sustained recessions before, and will sustain them again - post-reform China has never been tested with a serious economic downturn. Just my hunch, and going off what I know about China (not proclaiming to be an Ivy-League Sinologist here), it won't be pretty. Xi could find himself in a spot of bother with regard to his legitimacy.

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 2:40pm

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

volchitsa · 29-01-2020 2:45pm

at1withmyself wrote: »

China was handed back hong kong in 1997, at the time it was agreed 1 country and 2 systems for 50 years so its another while before its run as 1 country.

Not being smart but I would recommend taking some time to read up on the countries you plan to visit.

Lol, no indeed.
(Way to go to miss the point!)

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-01-2020 2:45pm

Yurt! wrote: »

These are countries that have sustained recessions before, and will sustain them again - post-reform China has never been tested with a serious economic downturn. Just my hunch, and going off what I know about China (not proclaiming to be an Ivy-League Sinologist here), it won't be pretty. Xi could find himself in a spot of bother with regard to his legitimacy.

Would be more concerned with folks that had it fairly good for longer, and got spoilt on it, and don't know how to catch a rabbit or start a bow fire.

E.g. You only have to look at France yesterday, the Firemen and the Riot squad had an public air 'mass fight-off', think it was something to do with who'll get to retire 1st (sure they'll all likely vote Macron back in regardless).

TuringBot47 · 29-01-2020 2:45pm

Yurt! wrote: »

... social unrest is a real possibility.

Can you imagine the martial arts fights !
It would be like Bruce Lee mixed with World War Z.

GooglePlus · 29-01-2020 2:47pm

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

We know very little about it and what it might mutate too, so keeping it under control is important.

bb12 · 29-01-2020 2:52pm

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

At current published rates its mortality rate appears to be 20 times higher than the flu

Snow Garden · 29-01-2020 2:57pm

bb12 wrote: »

At current published rates its mortality rate appears to be 20 times higher than the flu

Link please and which flu virus.

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-01-2020 2:59pm

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?
I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

FAQ:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/alerts/Pages/coronavirus-faqs.aspx
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a30629775/coronavirus-faq/
https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

Ireland has no direct flights to China, but DUB should step up monitoring anyway.

There is no natural immunity, nor approved vaccines or therapeutics for any of these new (animal based) respiratory coronaviruses (like SARS/MERS) and 2019-nCoV for humans.

While some people may only have mild symptons, others (elderly, live with chronic conditions such as diabetes, COPD and heart disease) may develop complications.

It may also mutate further (as per Spa flu), and as it's 'novell' can be unpredictable. Suffice to say if you currently smoke 40 fags per day might be an idea to crumple them up and lob into the nearest bin.

joeguevara · 29-01-2020 3:04pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

Link please and which flu virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

he novel coronavirus' case fatality rate is currently estimated at around 3%[9] (between 2% and 4%).

For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases).Fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

tom1ie · 29-01-2020 3:08pm

So how bad is this for a healthy person? Ie no underlying health issues?

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 3:09pm

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

FAQ:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/alerts/Pages/coronavirus-faqs.aspx
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a30629775/coronavirus-faq/
https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

Ireland has no direct flights to China, but DUB should step up monitoring anyway.

There is no natural immunity, nor approved vaccines or therapeutics for any of these new (animal based) respiratory coronaviruses (like SARS/MERS) and 2019-nCoV for humans.

While some people may only have mild symptons, others (elderly, live with chronic conditions such as diabetes, COPD and heart disease) may develop complications.

It may also mutate further (as per Spa flu), and as it's 'novell' can be unpredictable. Suffice to say if you currently smoke 40 fags per day might be an idea to crumple them up and lob into the nearest bin.

Thank you. So is the issue that it is a zoonotic disease that is new to humans and there is no vaccines approved to give to people that are vulnerable? Yes that’s what I thought the issue is
but then someone said you can’t make a vaccine for a cold as it’s a virus, at which point I stopped engaging in the conversation :-D

VinLieger · 29-01-2020 3:11pm

tom1ie wrote: »

So how bad is this for a healthy person? Ie no underlying health issues?

We don't know, there's simply not enough information yet, the current mortality rate is being theorised currently at around 3% which means its definitely more of a concern than seasonal flu which is about 0.1/0.2% but also then could it be inflated by the condition of the patients initially infected? Or more worryingly are China still fudging the figures and the actual mortality rate is higher?

There's still simply not enough known to answer any questions like this

tom1ie · 29-01-2020 3:15pm

VinLieger wrote: »

We don't know, there's simply not enough information yet, the current mortality rate is being theorised currently at around 3% which means its definitely more of a concern than seasonal flu which is about 0.1/0.2% but also then could it be inflated by the condition of the patients initially infected? Or more worryingly are China still fudging the figures and the actual mortality rate is higher?

There's still simply not enough known to answer any questions like this

Ok. Have we had person to person transmission outside of China? If so how long ago and what age demographic are these people, I also wonder how healthy these people are.

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 3:17pm

VinLieger wrote: »

We don't know, there's simply not enough information yet, the current mortality rate is being theorised currently at around 3% which means its definitely more of a concern than seasonal flu which is about 0.1/0.2% but also then could it be inflated by the condition of the patients initially infected? Or more worryingly are China still fudging the figures and the actual mortality rate is higher?

There's still simply not enough known to answer any questions like this

Yes I think the issue seems to be that it a virus that has transferred from and animal to human and easily spread among humans so it’s hard to tell what way it will go. 3 for every hundred that get it seems quite high! I wonder if the figures are being reported accurately

circadian · 29-01-2020 3:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Reports coming in that the price of bats has more than doubled in the past week.

Why would bat prices increase?

IspeakcozIcan · 29-01-2020 3:19pm

Does anyone have links for buying proper facemasks? Have heard they've sold out in many places across Dublin.

joeguevara · 29-01-2020 3:19pm

circadian wrote: »

Why would bat prices increase?

Because rats get bats.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 3:20pm

tom1ie wrote: »

So how bad is this for a healthy person? Ie no underlying health issues?

Looks totally mild if no underlying conditions and under 50 y/o

VinLieger · 29-01-2020 3:21pm

tom1ie wrote: »

Ok. Have we had person to person transmission outside of China? If so how long ago and what age demographic are these people, I also wonder how healthy these people are.

Yup its happened in Germany, the intial infection was from a visitor from shanghai,(theory is their parents visited them from wuhan, prior to flying to germany) this person infected a German colleague and they then infected 1 if not 2 more people they work with but never met the person visiting from china, i think there's also been a case of this in Japan but not 100%

Demographics are all over the place ive seen nothing specific pointing to any at a higher or lower threat of being infected or dying from it.

Theres a lot of questions about the health of the general populace in wuhan where more modern western attitudes to bacteria and general hygiene are not really taken seriously, which is a big part of where this virus has come from in the disgusting wet markets they run.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 3:22pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

Link please and which flu virus.

Many estimates have put the coronavirus mortality rate at between 2-4% and seasonal flu as 0.1%, both figures are widely disseminated and easily accessible

tom1ie · 29-01-2020 3:24pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Looks totally mild if no underlying conditions and under 50 y/o

That your opinion or is that from world health organisation?

Larbre34 · 29-01-2020 3:26pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Looks totally mild if no underlying conditions and under 50 y/o

Eh, no, its conversion rate to pneumonia in people with otherwise healthy profiles is unprecedented. Thats the bogeyman.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 3:26pm

IspeakcozIcan wrote: »

Does anyone have links for buying proper facemasks? Have heard they've sold out in many places across Dublin.

You could try amazon but think delivery dates pushed out, you need a N95 type at minimum

pc7 · 29-01-2020 3:27pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Eh, no, its conversion rate to pneumonia in people with otherwise healthy profiles is unprecedented. Thats the bogeyman.

Can pneumonia then be cured with normal medication?

joeguevara · 29-01-2020 3:27pm

wakka12 wrote: »

Many estimates have put the coronavirus mortality rate at between 2-4% and seasonal flu as 0.1%, both figures are widely disseminated and easily accessible

seasonal flu is 0.01% as opposed to 0.1%

1800_Ladladlad · 29-01-2020 3:29pm

eh some people finding ways to pass the time in a fun way but if I was contained for this long I would be accusing the misses of spying on me....

https://twitter.com/MissXQ/status/1222445219951468544

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 3:30pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Eh, no, its conversion rate to pneumonia in people with otherwise healthy profiles is unprecedented. Thats the bogeyman.

Really? Is there confirmation of that? Not everybody who died had underlying health conditions

clever user name · 29-01-2020 3:30pm

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

The urgency comes to down to the fact that there's 1.4 billion people in China and travelling in between cities/provinces here is extremely easy. Add to that the fact that more Chinese people than ever are travelling abroad. Unless extreme measures are taken then this really has the opportunity to become a global pandemic. As much as the Chinese government has been the butt of many a joke the last few months, there's very few countries in the world that have the basically cordon off a province of 50 million people. If they hadn't done that, I guarantee a good portion of the population of Wuhan would have left to other cities to escape (and some abroad); a percentage of whom would have taken the virus with them.

As for the virus itself, I'm not a virologist so I can only go by what I've heard. It seems to be more contagious than the flu. I've heard varying reports, anywhere from an R0 of 1.5, up to as high as 6.0. Think of it this way, thousands of people every year get the flu over the course of a 'flu season'. If they need to be hospitalized, not an issue. They go to the hospital and get treated. Now add in the fact that this virus apparently causes viral pneumonia in a decent percentage of cases. Even moderate respiratory issues need seeing too. So instead of a a trickle of flu patients over the course of weeks/months, you've got potentially thousands of patients needing treatment, all in the space of a week. Christ, Chinese hospitals are already always jammed on a normal day (as are hospitals in most other countries).

So yes, while panic is probably not warranted in Western Europe just yet, unless extreme measures are taken who knows what could happen.

29-01-2020 3:32pm

Yurt! wrote: »

These are countries that have sustained recessions before, and will sustain them again - post-reform China has never been tested with a serious economic downturn. Just my hunch, and going off what I know about China (not proclaiming to be an Ivy-League Sinologist here), it won't be pretty. Xi could find himself in a spot of bother with regard to his legitimacy.

TBH, I suspect the average Chinese person wouldn't really lose that much with an economic downturn. Salaries are typically quite low (few above the 5k mark) outside of the Tier 1 cities, as is the general cost of living. And so the average Chinese person tends to live a rather frugal lifestyle with their money going towards "face" items. I would imagine we'd just see a massive reduction of foreign products being bought, and a return to the cheaper lifestyle.

It's the rich/wealthy that would be affected the most.

As for unrest, again I wouldn't be too quick to imagine a harsh attitude against Xi. He's got massive support from the "peasants" and lower middle class. A degree of government support to maintain their existing lives would likely offset any real issues. More likely, criticism would be turned towards external targets, such as Japan/US/ foreigners in general. There would be a lot of people who would accept separating the issues of an economic downturn, and the actual virus itself.

TBH The government has a lot of ways to swing public opinion in China. It really depends on just how severe the cost in life is from the virus, and even then, many Chinese are very flippant about such things. Life is cheap is a common attitude when it doesn't directly affect them..

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 3:34pm

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
Asian people may be much more susceptible to the coronavirus than people of european or african descent, may explain why it is spreading so much faster there

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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