new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

creditcarder · 29-01-2020 01:48PM

You know Dengue fever kills 50,000 people worldwide and infects 500 million people per year? Oddly shocking statistic, and it makes me feel oddly better about this virus for some strange reason. Hyperbole as the virus and trasmission is completely different, but does, perhaps, put things into perspective in a weird way.

clever user name · 29-01-2020 02:02PM

creditcarder wrote: »

You know Dengue fever kills 50,000 people worldwide and infects 500 million people per year? Oddly shocking statistic, and it makes me feel oddly better about this virus for some strange reason. Hyperbole as the virus and trasmission is completely different, but does, perhaps, put things into perspective in a weird way.

Funnily enough I spent a year in Southern Thailand and actually got Dengue. It's feels like a really bad dose of the flu, not very pleasant thing to have. Thankfully I didn't get the severe hemorrhagic version. Had a student who got a that, he ended up intensive care. To be honest Dengue is literally potluck in that part of the world, you simply cannot avoid mosquito bites, I was just unlucky. After 3 days I was ok, and couple of extra days to get my strength back.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 02:03PM

Bomb threats in Hong Kong if border to China isnt closed
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3047898/unexploded-ied-found-shenzhen-border-control-point

volchitsa · 29-01-2020 02:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

HK is part of China now, so it's not a "country". Even before, going from Shenzhen to HK wasn't a big deal, and hardly considered to be going to another country.

That's what I'm saying: they claim it's all one country, but Air China refise to refund our tickets to HK where they are refunding flights to Guangzhou no problem.

And, as we are actually going to Guangzhou, and only transiting though HK, if they then close the border between HK and mainland China, we will be completely stuck.

So it looks to me like it's one country whenever it suits them, and two when it might cost them money.

Yurt2 · 29-01-2020 02:20PM

Quite frankly, the greater danger now is if all these shutdowns persist and profiteering with foodstuffs takes hold, social unrest is a real possibility.

Mainland Chinese have a scarcity mentality being just a generation removed from food insecurity and famine. This is my pet theory, but I hold it's why you see people queuing for gaudy Italian handbags or paying thousands of dollars online for limited edition Nikes. The collective memory of want will mean that if certain food items become thin on the ground and unscrupulous individuals profiteer from it, things will get bad.

This is quite apart from an already sluggish economy with some crazy examples of misallocated capital.

China doesn't have the social or civic infrastructure to cope with an economic jolt that will harm the economy for months on end.

29-01-2020 02:21PM

clever user name wrote: »

Funnily enough I spent a year in Southern Thailand and actually got Dengue. It's feels like a really bad dose of the flu, not very pleasant thing to have. Thankfully I didn't get the severe hemorrhagic version. Had a student who got a that, he ended up intensive care. To be honest Dengue is literally potluck in that part of the world, you simply cannot avoid mosquito bites, I was just unlucky. After 3 days I was ok, and couple of extra days to get my strength back.

You need to be very careful of not getting a second strike of Dengue as that is where it can especially turn nasty.

pc7 · 29-01-2020 02:26PM

Yurt! wrote: »

China doesn't have the social or civic infrastructure to cope with an economic jolt that will harm the economy for months on end.

That will then hit Australia and the mines, US and everywhere really will be affected.

at1withmyself · 29-01-2020 02:30PM

volchitsa wrote: »

That's what I'm saying: they claim it's all one country, but Air China refise to refund our tickets to HK where they are refunding flights to Guangzhou no problem.

And, as we are actually going to Guangzhou, and only transiting though HK, if they then close the border between HK and mainland China, we will be completely stuck.

So it looks to me like it's one country whenever it suits them, and two when it might cost them money.

China was handed back hong kong in 1997, at the time it was agreed 1 country and 2 systems for 50 years so its another while before its run as 1 country.

Not being smart but I would recommend taking some time to read up on the countries you plan to visit.

29-01-2020 02:31PM

Yurt! wrote: »

The collective memory of want will mean that if certain food items become thin on the ground and unscrupulous individuals profiteer from it, things will get bad.

Reports coming in that the price of bats has more than doubled in the past week.

Yurt2 · 29-01-2020 02:31PM

pc7 wrote: »

That will then hit Australia and the mines, US and everywhere really will be affected.

These are countries that have sustained recessions before, and will sustain them again - post-reform China has never been tested with a serious economic downturn. Just my hunch, and going off what I know about China (not proclaiming to be an Ivy-League Sinologist here), it won't be pretty. Xi could find himself in a spot of bother with regard to his legitimacy.

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 02:40PM

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

volchitsa · 29-01-2020 02:45PM

at1withmyself wrote: »

China was handed back hong kong in 1997, at the time it was agreed 1 country and 2 systems for 50 years so its another while before its run as 1 country.

Not being smart but I would recommend taking some time to read up on the countries you plan to visit.

Lol, no indeed.
(Way to go to miss the point!)

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-01-2020 02:45PM

Yurt! wrote: »

These are countries that have sustained recessions before, and will sustain them again - post-reform China has never been tested with a serious economic downturn. Just my hunch, and going off what I know about China (not proclaiming to be an Ivy-League Sinologist here), it won't be pretty. Xi could find himself in a spot of bother with regard to his legitimacy.

Would be more concerned with folks that had it fairly good for longer, and got spoilt on it, and don't know how to catch a rabbit or start a bow fire.

E.g. You only have to look at France yesterday, the Firemen and the Riot squad had an public air 'mass fight-off', think it was something to do with who'll get to retire 1st (sure they'll all likely vote Macron back in regardless).

TuringBot47 · 29-01-2020 02:45PM

Yurt! wrote: »

... social unrest is a real possibility.

Can you imagine the martial arts fights !
It would be like Bruce Lee mixed with World War Z.

GooglePlus · 29-01-2020 02:47PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

We know very little about it and what it might mutate too, so keeping it under control is important.

bb12 · 29-01-2020 02:52PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?

I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

At current published rates its mortality rate appears to be 20 times higher than the flu

Snow Garden · 29-01-2020 02:57PM

bb12 wrote: »

At current published rates its mortality rate appears to be 20 times higher than the flu

Link please and which flu virus.

4068ac1elhodqr · 29-01-2020 02:59PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Can someone explain why there is so much urgency to control this virus? Is it because there are no vaccines for it so vulnerable people, such and elderly, babies and immune compromised aren’t at risk?
I told someone that BA have suspended flights to China. They said the media are hyping the situation and it is just as common as a cold or flu. What is the urgency and why isn’t Ireland taking precautions if needed ?

FAQ:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/alerts/Pages/coronavirus-faqs.aspx
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a30629775/coronavirus-faq/
https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

Ireland has no direct flights to China, but DUB should step up monitoring anyway.

There is no natural immunity, nor approved vaccines or therapeutics for any of these new (animal based) respiratory coronaviruses (like SARS/MERS) and 2019-nCoV for humans.

While some people may only have mild symptons, others (elderly, live with chronic conditions such as diabetes, COPD and heart disease) may develop complications.

It may also mutate further (as per Spa flu), and as it's 'novell' can be unpredictable. Suffice to say if you currently smoke 40 fags per day might be an idea to crumple them up and lob into the nearest bin.

joeguevara · 29-01-2020 03:04PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Link please and which flu virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

he novel coronavirus' case fatality rate is currently estimated at around 3%[9] (between 2% and 4%).

For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases).Fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

tom1ie · 29-01-2020 03:08PM

So how bad is this for a healthy person? Ie no underlying health issues?

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 03:09PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

FAQ:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/alerts/Pages/coronavirus-faqs.aspx
https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/health/a30629775/coronavirus-faq/
https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html

Ireland has no direct flights to China, but DUB should step up monitoring anyway.

There is no natural immunity, nor approved vaccines or therapeutics for any of these new (animal based) respiratory coronaviruses (like SARS/MERS) and 2019-nCoV for humans.

While some people may only have mild symptons, others (elderly, live with chronic conditions such as diabetes, COPD and heart disease) may develop complications.

It may also mutate further (as per Spa flu), and as it's 'novell' can be unpredictable. Suffice to say if you currently smoke 40 fags per day might be an idea to crumple them up and lob into the nearest bin.

Thank you. So is the issue that it is a zoonotic disease that is new to humans and there is no vaccines approved to give to people that are vulnerable? Yes that’s what I thought the issue is
but then someone said you can’t make a vaccine for a cold as it’s a virus, at which point I stopped engaging in the conversation :-D

VinLieger · 29-01-2020 03:11PM

tom1ie wrote: »

So how bad is this for a healthy person? Ie no underlying health issues?

We don't know, there's simply not enough information yet, the current mortality rate is being theorised currently at around 3% which means its definitely more of a concern than seasonal flu which is about 0.1/0.2% but also then could it be inflated by the condition of the patients initially infected? Or more worryingly are China still fudging the figures and the actual mortality rate is higher?

There's still simply not enough known to answer any questions like this

tom1ie · 29-01-2020 03:15PM

VinLieger wrote: »

We don't know, there's simply not enough information yet, the current mortality rate is being theorised currently at around 3% which means its definitely more of a concern than seasonal flu which is about 0.1/0.2% but also then could it be inflated by the condition of the patients initially infected? Or more worryingly are China still fudging the figures and the actual mortality rate is higher?

There's still simply not enough known to answer any questions like this

Ok. Have we had person to person transmission outside of China? If so how long ago and what age demographic are these people, I also wonder how healthy these people are.

frillyleaf · 29-01-2020 03:17PM

VinLieger wrote: »

We don't know, there's simply not enough information yet, the current mortality rate is being theorised currently at around 3% which means its definitely more of a concern than seasonal flu which is about 0.1/0.2% but also then could it be inflated by the condition of the patients initially infected? Or more worryingly are China still fudging the figures and the actual mortality rate is higher?

There's still simply not enough known to answer any questions like this

Yes I think the issue seems to be that it a virus that has transferred from and animal to human and easily spread among humans so it’s hard to tell what way it will go. 3 for every hundred that get it seems quite high! I wonder if the figures are being reported accurately

circadian · 29-01-2020 03:17PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Reports coming in that the price of bats has more than doubled in the past week.

Why would bat prices increase?

IspeakcozIcan · 29-01-2020 03:19PM

Does anyone have links for buying proper facemasks? Have heard they've sold out in many places across Dublin.

joeguevara · 29-01-2020 03:19PM

circadian wrote: »

Why would bat prices increase?

Because rats get bats.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 03:20PM

tom1ie wrote: »

So how bad is this for a healthy person? Ie no underlying health issues?

Looks totally mild if no underlying conditions and under 50 y/o

VinLieger · 29-01-2020 03:21PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Ok. Have we had person to person transmission outside of China? If so how long ago and what age demographic are these people, I also wonder how healthy these people are.

Yup its happened in Germany, the intial infection was from a visitor from shanghai,(theory is their parents visited them from wuhan, prior to flying to germany) this person infected a German colleague and they then infected 1 if not 2 more people they work with but never met the person visiting from china, i think there's also been a case of this in Japan but not 100%

Demographics are all over the place ive seen nothing specific pointing to any at a higher or lower threat of being infected or dying from it.

Theres a lot of questions about the health of the general populace in wuhan where more modern western attitudes to bacteria and general hygiene are not really taken seriously, which is a big part of where this virus has come from in the disgusting wet markets they run.

wakka12 · 29-01-2020 03:22PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Link please and which flu virus.

Many estimates have put the coronavirus mortality rate at between 2-4% and seasonal flu as 0.1%, both figures are widely disseminated and easily accessible

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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