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Irish birth rate continues to fall

2

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It's partially down to finances - yesterday came the revelation that the average first-time buyer is now 34.

    Pretty hard to start a family when you don't feel like you have a family home.

    However, there are also cyclical causes - the baby boom before last was 1975ish to 1984ish. When these people turned 30ish, they started all having babies. Et voila! Baby boom no. 2.

    This is now tapering off, so the overall birth rate is dropping. We should expect a drop until about 2030 when it'll start coming up again.

    But the long-term trend is a lot less births, and as others have said, this does need resolving. Partially by opening up pensions at the far end; eliminate the mandatory retirement age (while maintaining a statutory pension age so people can choose to retire if they wish).

    But also by increasing births at the short end; reduce the overall cost of having and raising children. And also encouraging younger people to have children. At present we talk everyone out of it until they're 30. We need to stop doing that.

    Make it easier to both work and have children and people will be more inclined to have more, younger.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,888 ✭✭✭Atoms for Peace


    Some won't be happy until we have a Gilead type state, but I suppose what other solution is their to the growing epidemic of uppity women.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,812 ✭✭✭✭sbsquarepants


    Some won't be happy until we have a Gilead type state, .

    What might that be? I've never heard of a gilead type state before.

    Anywho - I'm a baby making machine, the low birth rate ain't my fault!:D


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    worded wrote: »
    It’s financial castration for anyone with a job. It’s an extra mortgage per kid.


    A gazillion times this. I won't know what to do with my €2400 per month that is currently going on childcare - actually, got an email from the montessori today saying they're going to raise the fee again in September.

    One thing is for sure: I do not want the Irish government to give me a handout. Not because I'm in principle against handouts - they sound great! - but entirely because if they "helped" me like that the crèche/childcare centre will coincidentally increase their fees by the same amount or more, as happened last year. Government "help" like that is doing nothing to help parents. Nothing. As government policy shows, the government is much more concerned with helping the private businesses involved in childcare rather than in helping the parents.

    The only solution to the travesty of childcare costs in Ireland is obvious: extend the state education system to preschool. A state-owned and run pre-school education system is, however, not even on the political radar for any political party.

    Compel preschool teachers to be as qualified as primary or secondary teachers. There's a huge lack of meas for childcare professionals in Ireland - even though Ireland is a genuinely very good society in which to raise children. As I said before, the vast majority of childminders in my local crèche are Spanish, males as well as females. Irish people are a rarity. Why? 20 years ago one of my siblings raised all her children in Flanders and the pre-school childcare cost was, while not free, a token or nominal payment. 20 years ago. Irish policymakers and politicians are so backward - but they'll invent all sorts of nice-sounding "children's rights" stuff and express outrage at the treatment of children in 1956 - while doing everything to avoid providing pre-school children in 2018 with a state education system and its rights which are bestowed upon older children.

    TLDR: State needs to set up state childcare facilities with as much legal standing as have state-owned primary and secondary schools rather than continue giving subventions to private businesses in the form of "helping" parents.

    The Irish Times: Crèches increase fees ahead of new Government subsidy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,464 ✭✭✭pgj2015


    When calculating for the future you would also have to factor in inward migration, both Irish and foreign. With the world as a whole over populated maybe a smaller increasing population isn't such a bad thing; we have a potentially a massive diaspora to delve into if needs be.

    But if the Government was concerned then they could make having children more attractive. While child benefit is generous, childcare seems to be prohibitively expensive.



    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/baby-boxes-for-parents-of-every-newborn-irelands-strategy-to-increase-birth-rate-revealed-36807832.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,982 ✭✭✭Caliden


    Which is why most people I know have gotten themselves a private pension.

    I'd be shocked if the government didn't change the rules around the tax free lump sum and changed the rate on 200,001 - 500,000 in the future.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,381 ✭✭✭facehugger99


    Caliden wrote: »
    I'd be shocked if the government didn't change the rules around the tax free lump sum and changed the rate on 200,001 - 500,000 in the future.

    Anyone in their 20's-40's now, prudent enough to have a private pension in place, will have the bejaysus taxed out of it come retirement, to pay for feckless and reckless who haven't bothered.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,487 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    It's drivers fault. So many have their phones on their laps in case they miss something on Facebook while driving, and it's making them sterile!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    seamus wrote: »
    It's partially down to finances - yesterday came the revelation that the average first-time buyer is now 34.

    Pretty hard to start a family when you don't feel like you have a family home.

    However, there are also cyclical causes - the baby boom before last was 1975ish to 1984ish. When these people turned 30ish, they started all having babies. Et voila! Baby boom no. 2.

    This is now tapering off, so the overall birth rate is dropping. We should expect a drop until about 2030 when it'll start coming up again.

    But the long-term trend is a lot less births, and as others have said, this does need resolving. Partially by opening up pensions at the far end; eliminate the mandatory retirement age (while maintaining a statutory pension age so people can choose to retire if they wish).

    But also by increasing births at the short end; reduce the overall cost of having and raising children. And also encouraging younger people to have children. At present we talk everyone out of it until they're 30. We need to stop doing that.

    Make it easier to both work and have children and people will be more inclined to have more, younger.

    This, a million times. I'm 27 and living with my boyfriend, in a long term relationship, and any time I mention how broody I am people look at me as if I have 2 heads.
    The last person I said it to told me to enjoy my youth and think about it again in a few years.
    I know I'm not old yet, but I wouldn't consider myself to be a "youth", either. You'd swear I was a 14 year old planning a baby the way she was talking!

    A friend of mine is due next month, an unplanned baby, when she told her parents the news they were happy but a bit disappointed because of her age. When my parents were that age they had been married for 5 years with 3 kids, and a mortgage!

    Stopping the stigma and encouraging younger people to start families would be a good way to stop the birth rate from falling. We are automatically taught that unless you are actively trying, an unplanned pregnancy is sometimes treated worse than a jail sentence. If people saw it as more of a positive thing they might be inclined to have kids younger.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,634 ✭✭✭ThinkProgress


    seamus wrote: »
    But also by increasing births at the short end; reduce the overall cost of having and raising children. And also encouraging younger people to have children. At present we talk everyone out of it until they're 30. We need to stop doing that.

    Make it easier to both work and have children and people will be more inclined to have more, younger.

    So basically... who gives a f*ck what type of kids we bring into the world (and hence what type of society we want), so long as we bring that birthrate up?? :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    So basically... who gives a f*ck what type of kids we bring into the world (and hence what type of society we want), so long as we bring that birthrate up?? :rolleyes:

    I really don't think that's what was implied at all.

    I don't know a single person my age who has children who planned them.
    They were all surprises and they're all very happy etc, but if there wasn't such a stigma around it, and it wasn't looked at in such a negative light, more people might actually CHOOSE and PLAN to have children before they hit their mid 30's as is the case now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    So basically... who gives a f*ck what type of kids we bring into the world (and hence what type of society we want), so long as we bring that birthrate up?? :rolleyes:
    What? I have no idea what that's even supposed to mean, never mind where you got it from.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 812 ✭✭✭Cleopatra_


    As far as I know Ireland has one of the highest birth rates in Europe. My missus is German and she has quite a few friends back home who are only children which is definitely more unusual in Ireland. Any time the mother in law came to visit us she was horrified by the number of children running around the place so I think things will be alright for quite a while.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Mutant z


    Its more affordable to have a child if you're on social welfare than if you're working full time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,888 ✭✭✭Atoms for Peace


    What might that be? I've never heard of a gilead type state before.

    Anywho - I'm a baby making machine, the low birth rate ain't my fault!:D

    A totalitarian Christian theocracy.


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  • Posts: 0 CMod ✭✭✭✭ Zechariah Hot Glob


    Irish ladies, stop stuffing the faces and hit the gym

    I've been going to the gym for ages but I'm not pregnant. Maybe I'm doing the wrong exercises??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,555 ✭✭✭Roger Hassenforder


    eeguy wrote: »


    Erecipe erectile dysfunction in men is also through the roof.

    Isnt part of the problem, that its not...

    *ill get me coat


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,448 ✭✭✭✭Cupcake_Crisis


    eeguy wrote: »
    Erecipe dysfunction in men is also through the roof.

    Not under my roof it’s not!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,920 ✭✭✭freedominacup


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Well where do you live? I see so few families with over 4+ children that youd remark on it when you see it. The majority of couples I know has 2 children and a good proportion have 3, but plenty of people unmarried or just dont want children too that I know and then its very easy to see how that average of 2-3 per couple who have children is brought down to well below 2.0 (replacement level)average by the couples who dont have kids.

    It really does depend where you live. The average where I live is over 3. No one would pass any remark about a couple with 5 kids. That said I got a bit of a land last year when I started running into a guy I had been in school with and hadn't seen for years. We were heading back to the cars after dropping kids at a sports event. He hopped into a nine seater. 7 kids and he travels overseas for work 3 weeks a month. In fairness to him he does an awful with the kids when he's around.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,691 ✭✭✭Lia_lia


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    This, a million times. I'm 27 and living with my boyfriend, in a long term relationship, and any time I mention how broody I am people look at me as if I have 2 heads.
    The last person I said it to told me to enjoy my youth and think about it again in a few years.
    I know I'm not old yet, but I wouldn't consider myself to be a "youth", either. You'd swear I was a 14 year old planning a baby the way she was talking!

    A friend of mine is due next month, an unplanned baby, when she told her parents the news they were happy but a bit disappointed because of her age. When my parents were that age they had been married for 5 years with 3 kids, and a mortgage!

    Stopping the stigma and encouraging younger people to start families would be a good way to stop the birth rate from falling. We are automatically taught that unless you are actively trying, an unplanned pregnancy is sometimes treated worse than a jail sentence. If people saw it as more of a positive thing they might be inclined to have kids younger.

    Yes, I agree with this. I'm 29 and would like to maybe have a baby next year but when I tell my friends (who are the same age) they are like..."What? Why? That's very young. Would you not wait a few years?" Next year I'll be 30 and (all going well lol) in a 7 year relationship! And the those that I talk to in their mid-late 30's that have just had babies say they wish they started earlier as they are wrecked.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,816 ✭✭✭Tigerandahalf


    Interesting article here from 4 years ago talking about the low birth rate in Germany and how financial incentives/tax breaks are not the only issue. Some of the patterns are similar to here.
    ......
    Kerstin Schenk is a 39-year-old new mother from Munich whose experience goes some way to explaining the trend. "I had hoped to have children earlier, but I didn't finish my studies until I was 30," said the management consultant. "And then I felt I needed to get some work experience under my belt before I went off on maternity leave. When I did then have the right partner it took quite a long time for us to get pregnant."
    .....
    Reading the comments in the link are quite interesting.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/sep/21/germany-birthrate-low-falling#comments

    A couple of interesting comments
    ....
    . It does seem that in Germany, many people view the decision of whether or not to start families as a kind of consumer choice. Until more Germans really see children and family as an essential part of a fulfilled life -- and accept the sacrifices that children and family demand -- things aren't going to change, regardless of financial or other incentives offered by the state or employers.
    ....
    If Germany wasn't so reluctant to relax immigration requirements there wouldn't really be a problem. But what they don't say openly is: the desired children should be of german origin. God forbid there might be more little Mohammeds running around!
    ...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,223 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    bluewolf wrote: »
    I've been going to the gym for ages but I'm not pregnant. Maybe I'm doing the wrong exercises??




    Very possibly :-P


    Or it could be the oul' butterface syndrome :pac:

    Might just need a change in attitude.
    Get one of those books from the 1930's on how to be a good housewife.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,123 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Less nappies ending up in the bin can only be positive


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    You do realise if most jobs are done away with it means there will be fewer menial jobs to do. So as a population we get more done for less effort. This is a good thing.

    200 years ago it took an entire family to grow just about enough food to try feed themselves. Now a handful of farmers can grow enough food in Ireland to feed 10's of millions. Same goes for making cars, tv's, carpets, glasses. Even apps and that kind of Software!

    The only way automation will make people 'obsolete' is by the extremely rich trying to force it be that way.

    hyperbole much!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Less nappies ending up in the bin can only be positive

    Who's going to generate tax ? There's a storm coming. But never fear the developing world are producing 6/7 kids on average per woman...we can rely on immigration in 20-30 years time to build our workforce.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    Maybe the 60% decline in sperm count over the last 40 years might have something to do with it? This astonishing statistic is hardly ever mentioned, I have no idea why not. It's crazy.

    I had my babies when very young, with only the contents of a rucksack to my name. Am not sure why people think having children is so vastly expensive - breastfeeding, cloth nappies and people inundating you with their old baby clothes means they hardly cost a cent. I don't know, maybe want less and there won't be so much cost to living? I have actually never once thought of the children in terms of finance , honestly. Then again they had very few expensive things and it was never a problem.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    Its for socio economic not fall in sperm count. People cwant to focus on career in their 20s, getting married later, saving for housing into their 30s...etc..

    Kids come after all of that. If you're only starting a family in your early to mid 30s, you're unlikely to want/have more than 2...assuming you even can.

    Nearly all my friends starting having children around 33-36 yrs of age.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    Zorya wrote: »
    Am not sure why people think having children is so vastly expensive - breastfeeding, cloth nappies and people inundating you with their old baby clothes means they hardly cost a cent. I don't know, maybe want less and there won't be so much cost to living? I have actually never once thought of the children in terms of finance , honestly. Then again they had very few expensive things and it was never a problem.


    To be fair this is your experience...it wasn't mine. Creche fees is the bigger killer. Having more than 2 kids isn't affordable due to creche costs


  • Registered Users Posts: 8 FlyingMoose


    Growing up; I was told anecdotally that you should be looking to have one kid for Mam, one kid for Dad and one kid for the country. Makes perfect sense.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    jon1981 wrote: »
    To be fair this is your experience...it wasn't mine. Creche fees is the bigger killer. Having more than 2 kids isn't affordable due to creche costs

    Chose to live very rural, no creche as I worked from home, made do with less, much less money. The years pass fast, people can earn money later on. It does come down to choices. There were no foreign holidays or computers or fancy gear. It's doable. And fun. Just saying in case there are those caught up in expensive city life who want children but seem unable to afford them.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,863 ✭✭✭lisasimpson


    Outside the cities families tend to be bigger some of which is due to grandparents helping out with the childcare


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Zorya wrote: »
    no creche as I worked from home

    Working from home while also minding children? Very few jobs, including jobs that can be done from home, afford that luxury.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,903 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    jon1981 wrote: »
    Gael23 wrote: »
    Less nappies ending up in the bin can only be positive

    Who's going to generate tax ? There's a storm coming. But never fear the developing world are producing 6/7 kids on average per woman...we can rely on immigration in 20-30 years time to build our workforce.

    If we figured out how to distribute wealth more evenly, we may not need to worry so much about declining birth rates


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    If we figured out how to distribute wealth more evenly, we may not need to worry so much about declining birth rates

    Making profit illegal? This problem has existed for centuries.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    joe_99 wrote: »
    Working from home while also minding children? Very few jobs, including jobs that can be done from home, afford that luxury.

    Yeah, but some obviously do. Not big bucks jobs or anything, but enough to help keep ordinary life ticking over.

    Funny that you use the word luxury - because perhaps it is the pursuit of some unnecessary luxuries that cause people to think having a family is expensive. Maybe people should enquire as to what is it all about, this 4 score years or so on a spinning planet in infinite space? Maybe it's not at all about money or stuff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,903 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    jon1981 wrote: »
    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    If we figured out how to distribute wealth more evenly, we may not need to worry so much about declining birth rates

    Making profit illegal? This problem has existed for centuries.

    Wealth creation doesn't necessarily mean 'making profits', creating money is relatively easy, evenly distributing it though is another matter, we re potentially in one of the most unevenly wealth distributed periods of capatalism, or heading into it, we should probably do something about it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,646 ✭✭✭✭qo2cj1dsne8y4k


    Are people surprised by this? People who should be having kids can’t because they’re too busy working to pay for everyone elses


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Wealth creation doesn't necessarily mean 'making profits', creating money is relatively easy, evenly distributing it though is another matter, we re potentially in one of the most unevenly wealth distributed periods of capatalism, or heading into it, we should probably do something about it

    This is an interesting graph in relation to that area.

    DrHNwzKWwAA5GWp.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,457 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Zorya wrote: »
    Maybe the 60% decline in sperm count over the last 40 years might have something to do with it? This astonishing statistic is hardly ever mentioned, I have no idea why not. It's crazy.

    I had my babies when very young, with only the contents of a rucksack to my name. Am not sure why people think having children is so vastly expensive - breastfeeding, cloth nappies and people inundating you with their old baby clothes means they hardly cost a cent. I don't know, maybe want less and there won't be so much cost to living? I have actually never once thought of the children in terms of finance , honestly. Then again they had very few expensive things and it was never a problem.

    Childcare


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,587 ✭✭✭baldbear


    Thank god we have the ethnic Irish having so many kids to keep the rates up. Nearly 1 in 2 have 5 kids plus compared to 1 in 24 of the general population.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    Wealth creation doesn't necessarily mean 'making profits', creating money is relatively easy, evenly distributing it though is another matter, we re potentially in one of the most unevenly wealth distributed periods of capatalism, or heading into it, we should probably do something about it
    The probem with wealth distribution is that the solution needs to be global. If one country or group of countries were to put in place some wealth distribution plan for corporate profits or high worth individuals, the money will just move somewhere else.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,457 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Zorya wrote: »
    This is an interesting graph in relation to that area.

    DrHNwzKWwAA5GWp.jpg

    I'd be surprised to see if Ireland strayed too far from the UK on those metrics


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    lawred2 wrote: »
    I'd be surprised to see if Ireland strayed too far from the UK on those metrics

    Money makes money


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    lawred2 wrote: »
    I'd be surprised to see if Ireland strayed too far from the UK on those metrics

    I find it a bit mind boggling. But it illustrates to me that the problems have always, as historically, been class divide issues - not all the stupid fodder of identity politics division that is foisted on us to keep us at each others throats while the rich slyly cream away the whole of the wealth of the world.

    We live in a form of feudalism now. Most workers struggling to afford basic homes or children etc are the new serfs, even if you are reasonably well paid you are basically a serf to the invisible feudal lords. Wealth distribution is more unequal now than it ever was at any time. It's all mad, Ted. Anyways.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    People might disagree with this but a couple in dublin on 150k a year combined ( both working) aren't wealthy.

    After mortgage, car fees, creche fees, pension deductions , healthcare, and general bills you ain't left with alot, ok they would have savings but they won't be retiring early on it.

    All of the above is about 4.5k (maybe closer to 5k) a month before you consider clothing, food...etc.

    On the flip side they are contributing huge tax euros to the revenue and not using any social benefit aside from the child welfare allowance.

    Shouldn't we be encouraging this behaviour by making it easier to have kids and work? But not just work but careers. We want gender equality right , in the work place? Right? Then this support for working families has to happen.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,457 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    jon1981 wrote: »
    People might disagree with this but a couple in dublin on 150k a year combined ( both working) aren't wealthy.

    After mortgage, car fees, creche fees, pension deductions , healthcare, and general bills you ain't left with alot, ok they would have savings but they won't be retiring early on it.

    All of the above is about 4.5k a month before you consider clothing, food...etc.

    On the flip side they are contributing huge tax euros to the revenue and not using any social benefit aside from the child welfare allowance.

    Shouldn't we be encouraging this behaviour by making it easier to have kids and work? But not just work but careers. We want gender equality right , in the work place? Right? Then this support for working families has to happen.

    this is a fact


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,608 ✭✭✭worded


    Its financial castration for the middle classs

    Only the rich or poor can afford 2+ in a family

    Middle classes are fcuked with childcare fees etc


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭Greyfox


    jon1981 wrote: »
    People might disagree with this but a couple in dublin on 150k a year combined ( both working) aren't wealthy.

    Nonsense, a couple on 150k can be considered wealthy. It's just that they have made the choice you use this wealth on a mortgage and kids, if they decided to not have kids and to not drive they'd be well off


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 788 ✭✭✭babi-hrse


    I find that extremely hard to believe, all I see is couples with 3,4,5,6 + kids every time I go home.

    You must live in athy


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,359 ✭✭✭jon1981


    Greyfox wrote: »
    Nonsense, a couple on 150k can be considered wealthy. It's just that they have made the choice you use this wealth on a mortgage and kids, if they decided to not have kids and to not drive they'd be well off

    We decided to have kids and retain our careers yes. This post is about birthrates dropping and im pointing out why people are perhaps choosing not to have children. If no kids were on the scene we'd certaibly be much better off but chose to have kids.


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