Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

thomond2006 · 04-10-2013 4:52pm

Toulon -10 added to earlier post. Clermont resting some players.

And Racing -15

P_1 · 04-10-2013 5:35pm

Evens(ish) treble of
Ospreys
Dragons
Treviso

Hopefully no egg on the face with this one

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 04-10-2013 5:44pm

Double of Ulster + 5 and Australia -1 to kick the weekend off

pays around 3/1

Judgement Day · 04-10-2013 5:55pm

Scatter gun over the Ospreys vs Ulster game:

More than 19.5 points in first half
Ospreys more than 11.5 points in 1st half
Ulster more than 8.5 points in 1st half

All at 5/6.

Weather damp and rain likely so a definite gamble.

Fireball07 · 04-10-2013 6:52pm

Ospreys have been very high-scoring to date, Ulster started low-scoring but have upped it in recent games and with a strong side out, I expect them to do well.

So I'm going for

Over 40.5 Points Ospreys V Ulster @5/6
Ulster Over 1.5 Tries @5/6
Zebre +15 V Dragons @8/13

its_phil · 04-10-2013 7:02pm

Went for an accum with:

Ulster over 1.5 tries
Zebre +15
Bath -2
Connacht over 7.5 points first half

which is just over 9/1.

Also went for Connacht to be winning at half time 11/5. They have been leading at half time in three of their first four games.

wp_rathead · 04-10-2013 7:41pm

wprathead wrote: »

Connacht to Recieve First Yellow Card @ 11/10

4 Words:
Rodney Ah You starts

wasn't rodney but that was fast

Fireball07 · 04-10-2013 8:42pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

Ospreys have been very high-scoring to date, Ulster started low-scoring but have upped it in recent games and with a strong side out, I expect them to do well.

So I'm going for

Over 40.5 Points Ospreys V Ulster @5/6
Ulster Over 1.5 Tries @5/6
Zebre +15 V Dragons @8/13

Gonna get 1/3 at best...poor day.

Should have taken wprathead's tip, was really tempted.

P_1 · 04-10-2013 8:47pm

The one fcuking day Eoin McLove decides to find his kicking boots and I bet against Ulster :rolleyes:

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 04-10-2013 8:53pm

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

Double of Ulster + 5 and Australia -1 to kick the weekend off

pays around 3/1

lets go Aussies. They've Horwill back so maybe he can be the difference

Fireball07 · 04-10-2013 9:02pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

Gonna get 1/3 at best...poor day.

Should have taken wprathead's tip, was really tempted.

0/3 it looks like

Judgement Day · 04-10-2013 10:14pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Scatter gun over the Ospreys vs Ulster game:

More than 19.5 points in first half
Ospreys more than 11.5 points in 1st half
Ulster more than 8.5 points in 1st half

All at 5/6.

Weather damp and rain likely so a definite gamble.

Ouch!!!

Not a good start to the weekend.

P.C. · 05-10-2013 1:25pm

SA, Argentina and Leinster to win.

Lets see how the day goes.

Podge_irl · 05-10-2013 4:30pm

Bit late but:

2 units South Africa @ evens
2 units Argentina @ evens
3 units Munster at 7/5

1 unit on 3 doubles on the above
2 units on a treble.

New balance: 74 units

Judgement Day · 05-10-2013 9:09pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Ouch!!!

Not a good start to the weekend.

Recovered with today's epic game (SA vs ABs) and now back to where I started the weekend. Taking lack of money spent on food vs money spent on booze I'm break even. Home now i.e. no outgoings and I'm going for Argentina to trounce the Aussies - not sure what yet until I sober up a bit. Should have stuck with my own advice and restricted my betting to real rugby.

thomond2006 · 06-10-2013 8:58am

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 40.78 units

- 1.5 units (10/11) Argentina +1
- 1.5 units (10/11) Munster +4
- .5 units (10/11) Oyonnax +24
- .5 units (13/8) Perpignan to win
- .5 units (11/4) Bayonne to win
- 1 unit (10/11) Toulon -10
- .75 units (10/11) Racing -15

New Balance: 34.53 units

I might add a few more closer to the weekend.

Edit: Toulon and Racing bets added.

Down to 38.71 units.

Judgement Day · 06-10-2013 9:01am

Judgement Day wrote: »

What reasoning would you like? The Aussies are in woeful form and the Argentinians almost beat them in the first match at home (14-13) and the way they played against the ABs I reckon they could run out convincing winners.

17-54 to the Aussies - Wow, who saw that coming? Glad I was too knackered after the pub to stay up and watch or bet.

P.C. · 06-10-2013 9:31am

P.C. wrote: »

SA, Argentina and Leinster to win.

Lets see how the day goes.

New balance 19.

thomond2006 · 07-10-2013 11:53pm

Old Balance: 38.71 units

- 4 units (10/11) Munster -8
- 1.5 units (10/11) Exeter -7
- .5 units (10/11) Harlequins -10
- .5 units (6/4) Perpignan to win
- .5 units (~9/1) Munster, Leinster, Ulster, Castres and Racing to all win

New Balance: 31.71 units

I'm very confident that Munster can cover that spread, Edinburgh are absolutely gash and Munster in Heineken Cup mode should win by at least 12 points. Edinburgh's only win this year is 19-16 at home to Dragons. They have the worst offensive and defensive record in the league with 70 points scored and 142 points conceded in 5 matches. Munster weren't brilliant against Leinster but breaking that losing streak can only help. They'll fancy a bonus point in this and I'd like to think they'd like to atone for an average display in Edinburgh last January when they failed to get the BP.

As always I might add more bets before the w/end.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 08-10-2013 12:21am

I've had a big splash on Munster -8. Great bet in my humble opinion

wp_rathead · 08-10-2013 12:52am

Hate to say it but Saracens -11 looks a decent bet

Our injury list is frightening:

Denis Buckley
Willie Faloon
Jason Harris-Wright
Eoin McKeon
Dave McSharry
Miah Nikora
Eoin Griffin
Craig Ronaldson
Kyle Tonetti
Conor Finn
Shane Layden
Frank Murphy

Unavailable:

James So’oialo

Doubts:

Ronan Lougney
Nathan White

Fireball07 · 08-10-2013 1:14am

The Munster -8 bet is a spread that should easily be covered, barring some freak conditions/performances.

08-10-2013 8:54am

Saracens -11 does seem 2/3 points shorter than I was thinking

No, you're a... · 08-10-2013 7:38pm

Forgot to post last weeks happenings:

Old Balance: 49.97 units

1 units (1.83) Argentina +1

1 unit (1.83) South Africa +1

1 unit (2.00) Munster +3

1 unit on a accumulator

New Balance: 47.94 units

Definitely going for Munster this week

4 units (0.91) Munster -8

New New Balance: 43.94

CatFromHue · 08-10-2013 9:00pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

The Munster -8 bet is a spread that should easily be covered, barring some freak conditions/performances.

Munster "only" beat Edinburgh by 9 points away last season in the HEC.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 08-10-2013 9:12pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Munster "only" beat Edinburgh by 9 points away last season in the HEC.

It was a pretty disastrous performance and we've come on a lot since then, plus our backline is much more potent

CatFromHue · 08-10-2013 9:20pm

Yup, good to keep these things in mind all the same.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 08-10-2013 9:23pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Yup, good to keep these things in mind all the same.

Also Edinburgh are worse!

Hype710 · 08-10-2013 9:25pm

Have gone for a Munster/Ulster double (4/5) and Northampton to win (7/5). Fearing a Castres backlash but I still reckon NH can take this.

jamiedav2011 · 08-10-2013 9:41pm

Northampton and Montpellier at 20/1 and 33/1 are both good dark horse bets for me.

Can't understand how Toulouse are such short odds at all.

Fireball07 · 08-10-2013 9:51pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

Munster "only" beat Edinburgh by 9 points away last season in the HEC.

I assume that's why the spread is that much... I mean that still would have covered it, albeit barely.

I'd have to agree with Ugo though, taking things logically, we should beat them by more. We look a lot better than last season, this time last year we wouldn't have beaten Leinster.....still plenty of flaws, as the loss to Treviso highlighted but Edinburgh are poor.

We now have Laulala starting and in good form, Earls back on the wing in good form, Keatley at 10 who is a much more attacking out-half than ROG, POC back in the row, and Sherry at 2 who secures our lineout. Also, Edinburgh ran in two latish tries the last time, can't see that happening again.

Obviously, a shock is possible in sport, Edinburgh somehow managed to make the semis a couple of years ago...but unlikely.

It's the Connacht handicap I'd be more worried to bet on...they may have a lot of injuries, but at home, against a big English team, in the first game, I could see them really raising their game and delivering a massive performance.

Suckfisher · 09-10-2013 2:34am

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Northampton and Montpellier at 20/1 and 33/1 are both good dark horse bets for me.

Can't understand how Toulouse are such short odds at all.

Two reasons Connacht and Zebre can see Toulouse getting 20 points here.

A home quarter for them seems porbable.

They have not been great last couple of seasons and many legends are coming to the ends of there careers.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 09-10-2013 10:42am

Ok so I've had a big cut off Munster -8 and I won money on the darts last night so I put the winnings on a Munster -8 and Leinster -1 double

sensitive1960 · 09-10-2013 12:42pm

Glasgow at +16 away to Toulon may have a chance.Glasgow rarely concede too much.

thomond2006 · 09-10-2013 11:26pm

Connacht now available at +14, they were +11 earlier in the week.

jamiedav2011 · 10-10-2013 9:20am

Suckfisher wrote: »

Two reasons Connacht and Zebre can see Toulouse getting 20 points here.

A home quarter for them seems porbable.

They have not been great last couple of seasons and many legends are coming to the ends of there careers.

Yes but Sarries are in that group and will likely get 20 points too, while I'd say Toulouse are more likely to lose in Galway, and to lose at home to Sarries.

Toulouse being best runners up wouldn't have a home QF in that case.

ArmaniJeanss · 10-10-2013 3:27pm

Decent 4 page betting-orientated HCup preview in todays Racing Post (worth snaffling from the bookies on the way home).
Their headlines tips are Munster 20/1 and Saracens at 8/1.

P_1 · 10-10-2013 9:10pm

Right so, my bets and musings about some of the weekends matches:

Ulster to beat Leicester @4/9. After a shakey start it seems the Ulstermen are finally starting to stand up, Leicester haven't really convinced me yet this season and I cant really seeing them breaching Fortress Ravenhill on a big Friday Night.
Saracens to beat Connacht @1/14. Sadly the Whesties have been woeful this season and those delightful folk in Sarries have been playing some fairly efficient rugby to start the season off.
Montpellier to beat Treviso @1/2. Monty have been playing some delightful rugby so far and are one of those rare French teams who give a continental site when playing away in Europe. Treviso are decent enough at home but I reckon that Monty have that little bit more.
Munster to beat Edinburgh @1/4. Edinburgh are, to be putting it mildly, ****e and Munster in Europe are, well Munster in Europe. Munster should be coming back from Edinburgh with some haggis, a hangover and 5 points.
Quins to beat Llanelli @1/9. Like Edinburgh, Llanelli are shoite, given the group that Quins find themselves in, nothing other than a convincing win means an early knockout for them.

Suckfisher · 10-10-2013 11:20pm

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Yes but Sarries are in that group and will likely get 20 points too, while I'd say Toulouse are more likely to lose in Galway, and to lose at home to Sarries.

Toulouse being best runners up wouldn't have a home QF in that case.

Toulouse losing in galway we can all dream will be more like the 36- 10hiding the last time.

Judgement Day · 11-10-2013 9:04am

P_1 wrote: »

Right so, my bets and musings about some of the weekends matches:

Ulster to beat Leicester @4/9. After a shakey start it seems the Ulstermen are finally starting to stand up, Leicester haven't really convinced me yet this season and I cant really seeing them breaching Fortress Ravenhill on a big Friday Night.
Saracens to beat Connacht @1/14. Sadly the Whesties have been woeful this season and those delightful folk in Sarries have been playing some fairly efficient rugby to start the season off.
Montpellier to beat Treviso @1/2. Monty have been playing some delightful rugby so far and are one of those rare French teams who give a continental site when playing away in Europe. Treviso are decent enough at home but I reckon that Monty have that little bit more.
Munster to beat Edinburgh @1/4. Edinburgh are, to be putting it mildly, ****e and Munster in Europe are, well Munster in Europe. Munster should be coming back from Edinburgh with some haggis, a hangover and 5 points.
Quins to beat Llanelli @1/9. Like Edinburgh, Llanelli are shoite, given the group that Quins find themselves in, nothing other than a convincing win means an early knockout for them.

Good calls but, even without seeing the team, I'm not betting against Treviso at home.

Buer · 11-10-2013 11:43am

53.9 units (thanks, Argentina).

Exeter, Quins, Munster, Saracens accumulator. 10 units.

Dazzler0911 · 11-10-2013 12:43pm

My weekend bet:

Sarries to win
Ulster to win
Tolouse (-31.0)
Germany (-2.0)

Acc Pays 6/1

jamiedav2011 · 11-10-2013 12:45pm

Suckfisher wrote: »

Toulouse losing in galway we can all dream will be more like the 36- 10hiding the last time.

I said Toulouse are more likely to lose in Galway, which they certainly are. Sarries will likely grab a BP tonight.

They don't actually need to lose in Galway to not top the pool.

P.Walnuts · 11-10-2013 12:56pm

Ulster (-2)
Munster (-2)

Double 6/5

LostArt · 11-10-2013 2:05pm

Munster -8 @ 10/11 is just too good to turn down.

I feel dirty..

beertons · 11-10-2013 2:31pm

Munster gone to -9 now on pp.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience · 11-10-2013 2:39pm

beertons wrote: »

Munster gone to -9 now on pp.

Still a great bet.

LostArt · 11-10-2013 2:42pm

It really is. I'd still take ye at a bigger handicap than 9

thomond2006 · 11-10-2013 2:43pm

LostArt wrote: »

It really is. I'd still take ye at a bigger handicap than 9

For me it should be around 12.

Fireball07 · 11-10-2013 2:48pm

Munster better deliver, I'm thinking of betting big (for me) on this one..... really tempting odds.

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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