Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

kunst nugget · 03-07-2019 12:18pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

You mean Norway which is in the Single Market and Customs union? Excellent example.

US, Canada and Australia are not standing in the wings. That's simply not true.

Canada has already come out and said it won't roll over EU trade deal for UK, the Brexit vote occurred at a time of strengthening EU-Australian trade relations and the US has made rumblings of major concessions being needed from the UK including access to the NHS so Britain is going to find itself in a very weak position. Trade deals can take decades to complete and in the meantime the UK is going to be floundering.

lawred2 · 03-07-2019 12:26pm

Popeleo wrote: »

Maybe he meant Switzerland, Iceland or Liechtenstein. But they are all in the EEA along with Norway, so de facto in the Single Market.

Switzerland is not actually in the EEA but through a whole gamut of bi-lateral agreements they are effectively in the single market

Best of luck nailing those agreements down Britain after you've reneged on 50 years' worth of treaties and diplomatic commitments.

Kidchameleon · 03-07-2019 12:26pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Show, with examples, how I am incorrect please?

You said that you could "go on"

Honestly, it is hard to find specific examples without having been sat at the negotiation table and I know better that to try reason with a Europhile like yourself. Look, all you have to do is look at the actions of the people in charge. They publicly state that they do not want Britian to leave (both the EU and British PM) and surprise surprise they have not left. Neither of them done what their constituents democratically told them to do. It is essential that this authoritarian regime crumbles. You know they want an army dont you?

03-07-2019 12:27pm

Berserker wrote: »

I'm a pro Brexit and I don't want anything from them. Most pro-Brexit people I know feel the same way. The politicians, both EU and British, are holding things up because they don't want to be the ones who pull the trigger. If Brexit is a disaster, it's the end of the British politicians, if it succeeds, the EU is in big trouble.

I could see it succeed for 1 of 2 reasons alone...

1: The US wants the EU to fail
2: Russia wants the EU to fail

lawred2 · 03-07-2019 12:27pm

But of course - I forgot about balls

storker · 03-07-2019 12:27pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

If the EU are so perfect then why do the British want to leave?

Lies and propaganda by UK hacks and politicians
English superiority complex
Brexiteers can't handle the idea of a union of nations...unless they're forcing it on someone themselves.

Kidchameleon · 03-07-2019 12:28pm

You got me with Bush

but Obama is a pussey & scumbag.

Berserker · 03-07-2019 12:28pm

joe40 wrote: »

The most important trade deal the British will need to negotiate post Brexit is with the EU their major trading.

That's a short term view. If Brexit is a success the EU will fall apart. You need to look to the future not the present. The deals with the likes of the US are the important deals. The others will follow suit from there. The US trade deals is pretty much done, I suspect. The media stories regarding the NHS being on the table a while back were released for a reason.

03-07-2019 12:28pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Honestly, it is hard to find specific examples without having been sat at the negotiation table and I know better that to try reason with a Europhile like yourself. Look, all you have to do is look at the actions of the people in charge. They publicly state that they do not want Britian to leave (both the EU and British PM) and surprise surprise they have not left. Neither of them done what their constituents democratically told them to do. It is essential that this authoritarian regime crumbles. You know they want an army dont you?

So you are making stuff up?
Glad we got that cleared up

03-07-2019 12:29pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

You got me with Bush but Obama is a pussey & scumbag.

Your standard of debate is mediocre.

lawred2 · 03-07-2019 12:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Your standard of debate is mediocre.

that's generous

Tell me how · 03-07-2019 12:31pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Your standard of debate is mediocre.

It's non-existent.

storker · 03-07-2019 12:31pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

, Trump is banging at measuring their door.

FYP

Popeleo · 03-07-2019 12:32pm

lawred2 wrote: »

Switzerland is not actually in the EEA but through a whole gamut of bi-lateral agreements they are effectively in the single market

Best of luck nailing those agreements down Britain after you've reneged on 50 years' worth of treaties and diplomatic commitments.

Correct. i mixed up the EEA with EFTA, which Switzerland is a member of. And like you say, trying to emulate the bilateral agreements used by the EU and Switzerland would be a non-starter for the diplomatically-impaired UK.

source · 03-07-2019 12:33pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

You got me with Bush but Obama is a pussey & scumbag.

endacl · 03-07-2019 12:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Your standard of debate is mediocre.

Generous.

03-07-2019 12:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Your standard of debate is mediocre.

There is a reason why I put Obama first. I could have waited to post the Bush one until after he called Obama a pussy.

I was about to lamp in the Putin one but Source went straight for the jugular

NIMAN · 03-07-2019 12:35pm

I fully understand the OPs frustration.

Its dragging on and will likely drag on again past Oct 31st.

We know its going to hurt, but the sooner we can get it over and done with, take the pain then try to get back to a normal working environment (however long that may take), the better.

Of course some see it as the longer its pushed out, better the chance of it never happening, but I think some form of it has to happen as it was a democratic vote by the Brits and it has to be seen to be done.

While we are ar$ing around with delays, we are all in limbo.

03-07-2019 12:38pm

NIMAN wrote: »

I fully understand the OPs frustration.

Its dragging on and will likely drag on again past Oct 31st.

We know its going to hurt, but the sooner we can get it over and done with, take the pain then try to get back to a normal working environment (however long that may take), the better.

Of course some see it as the longer its pushed out, better the chance of it never happening, but I think some form of it has to happen as it was a democratic vote by the Brits and it has to be seen to be done.

While we are ar$ing around with delays, we are all in limbo.

They are waiting for someone to push the real "Red Button" of a referendum, on the WA Vs Remain.

kunst nugget · 03-07-2019 12:38pm

Berserker wrote: »

That's a short term view. If Brexit is a success the EU will fall apart. You need to look to the future not the present. The deals with the likes of the US are the important deals. The others will follow suit from there. The US trade deals is pretty much done, I suspect. The media stories regarding the NHS being on the table a while back were released for a reason.

A US trade deal simply cannot fill the hole left behind from leaving the EU. Surely you know this is a nonsensical argument.

“We do three times as much trade with the EU than the US because it is closer and there is regulatory alignment,” said Alan Winters, director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at Sussex University. “Even if we had regulatory alignment with the US, the distance factor would still mean we would do less trade.”

So to compensate for any fall in UK-EU trade, UK-US trade would have to grow by a much bigger proportion. If Britain’s imports and exports to the bloc dropped 10 per cent, it would require a 37 per cent increase in trade with the US.

Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said it was “nonsensical” to argue there could be a big enough surge in US-UK trade to make up such a gap because London and Washington do not envisage a free trade agreement remotely as deep as the EU single market.

“We are hugely integrated in the EU economy and for any US deal, the most we are looking at is tariff reduction,” he said. Other motors of trade such as common standards and regulatory alignment would be much less touched by any US-UK agreement.

A 2018 cross-Whitehall study of the costs and benefits of Brexit estimated that a US free trade agreement would increase UK GDP by only 0.2 per cent after 15 years, a tiny fraction of the 2 to 8 per cent costs of Brexit during that time.

Read the full article below for a bit of enlightenment.

https://www.ft.com/content/40d74c90-85e5-11e9-97ea-05ac2431f453

KildareP · 03-07-2019 12:38pm

Berserker wrote: »

That's a short term view. If Brexit is a success the EU will fall apart. You need to look to the future not the present. The deals with the likes of the US are the important deals. The others will follow suit from there. The US trade deals is pretty much done, I suspect. The media stories regarding the NHS being on the table a while back were released for a reason.

The US trade deal might well be written on paper but it has a long way to go from being just a paper agreement to formally being signed off and accepted. Same as how the Canada FTA was days away from being signed on the lead up to March 29th but not only was it not signed at any stage in the three months since then but it has been completely shredded by the Canadian side in the last 24 hours.

Many of those people on the US side whose signatures and/or authorisation will be required along the way of getting it from that on-paper stage to actually trading with it have very clearly stated thay any FTA will simply not be passed through to the final stages by the USA if Britain does not stand over it's obligations surrounding the border.

source · 03-07-2019 12:39pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Honestly, it is hard to find specific examples without having been sat at the negotiation table and I know better that to try reason with a Europhile like yourself. Look, all you have to do is look at the actions of the people in charge. They publicly state that they do not want Britian to leave (both the EU and British PM) and surprise surprise they have not left. Neither of them done what their constituents democratically told them to do. It is essential that this authoritarian regime crumbles. You know they want an army dont you?

If you can't point to something because you weren't at the negotiation then how can you be so sure it exists?

The UK have not left because they can't come to a united position. 27 countries came together, agreed a position and stuck with that position. 1 country cannot even come to an agreement internally as to how to leave the EU.

The only one responsible for the UK not leaving the EU is the UK due to their indecision, lack of foresight and internal backstabbing.

InTheShadows · 03-07-2019 12:44pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The EU are a disgrace, if it wasnt for them stalling, the Brits would be gone now and another nail would be in the EU's coffin. Roll on Oct 31's here's hoping for a hard Brexit, screw the border, the EU must crumble quicky at any cost.

Absolutely. Hopefully Italy will be next to follow the UK out the door.

03-07-2019 12:45pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely. Hopefully Italy will be next to follow the UK out the door.

I know yeah, could you imagine the basket case Italy would be if it was not in the EU.

lawred2 · 03-07-2019 12:46pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely. Hopefully Italy will be next to follow the UK out the door.

Well as it stands public opinion in Italy is strongly against such self destructive idiocy

Berserker · 03-07-2019 12:47pm

kunst nugget wrote: »

A US trade deal simply cannot fill the hole left behind from leaving the EU. Surely you know this is a nonsensical argument.

In the context of the EU as is today, it is. You are forgetting about the consequences that a successful Brexit will have on the EU and its member states.

InTheShadows · 03-07-2019 12:49pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Its not complicated at all. The people voted to leave so leave in March and deal with the fallout (if any) after.

We voted no to Lisbon so the answer is no, end of. It is the EU who drags their feet on this stuff, there are plenty of examples

Lisbon and Nice actually but the EU didn't like the answer so told our weak minded political class to go again.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 12:50pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

Absolutely. Hopefully Italy will be next to follow the UK out the door.

You might have to wait a while. Excluding don't knows, 72% of Italians would vote Remain whereas 28% would vote Leave. In fact, in Italy, the Remain vote increased by 5% in the six months to April 2019.

Berserker · 03-07-2019 12:50pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They are waiting for someone to push the real "Red Button" of a referendum, on the WA Vs Remain.

And nobody will push it. A no deal exit is the only way out and neither side will push the button when the time comes. This extension charade will continue for a while yet.

BarryD2 · 03-07-2019 12:51pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Wrong, it's the end of the Tory/DUP stranglehold.

The DUP are tiny bit players in this in reality. They happen to have an uncertain position of influence at the moment but their concerns would be steamrollered in a moment if opportunity allowed.

Boggles · 03-07-2019 12:51pm

Stephen15 wrote: »

I'm sure the majority of people in Britain who voted for Brexit ie the majority are thinking we voted for Brexit why are the immigrants still here scrounging off our system.

That's because most of them are thick cúnts.

The majority of inward migration are by Non Eu citizens, which the UK have full control over, a white paper prepared by the home office states this will have to drastically increase to meet job demands over the coming years.

But trying to explain that to your average Brexit voter is akin to trying to fúck a door nob, utterly pointless.

kunst nugget · 03-07-2019 12:52pm

Berserker wrote: »

In the context of the EU as is today, it is. You are forgetting about the consequences that a successful Brexit will have on the EU and its member states.

Can you tell me how Brexit is going to be successful?

Just saying it's going to be a success doesn't make it true. If that was the case, I would spend my days telling everyone I have a 14 inch dong.

Dytalus · 03-07-2019 12:53pm

Berserker wrote: »

In the context of the EU as is today, it is. You are forgetting about the consequences that a successful Brexit will have on the EU and its member states.

But...wait....

For the US (and any other long distance trading party) to successfully fill the gap left by EU trade, the EU will need to pretty much fall apart. You're saying this wil happen after a successful Brexit.

But a successful Brexit requires these trade deals to be more valuable than EU membership. Which requires the EU to collapse. Which will happen because Brexit will be successful. Which can only happen if they get better trade deals. Which they can only get if....

Where do we actually enter this loop of supposition?

InTheShadows · 03-07-2019 12:57pm

May was put in charge by the UK establishment because she was a remainer in the hope she'd stop Brexit. Unfortunately for the EU the UK isn't Ireland and their democracy means something and hand on heart i'd say if there ever is a second Brexit vote the leave vote will increase.

Lumen · 03-07-2019 12:58pm

This debate (not just here) is unnecessarily black and white.

It is not necessary to believe that the EU is "good" to consider it better to be in, nor to believe that the EU is "bad" to consider it better to be out.

However, we live in a broadly multi-lateral world. To get stuff done you need allies who share most of your cultural values and the ability to compromise with people who disagree or have different interests.

The Brexiteers seem to believe either that the UK can act unilaterally in the world, which is complete fantasy, or that it has more in common with states outside the EU, which is simply a misjudgement.

I'm split between the vengeful part of my brain that feels "they" deserve a hard Brexit so they can learn their place in the world the hard way, and sympathy for the Remainers who never wanted any of this.

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 12:58pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

May was put in charge by the UK establishment because she was a remainer in the hope she'd stop Brexit. Unfortunately for the EU the UK isn't Ireland and their democracy means something and hand on heart i'd say if there ever is a second Brexit vote the leave vote will increase.

Proof for any of this?

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 12:58pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

May was put in charge by the UK establishment because she was a remainer in the hope she'd stop Brexit. Unfortunately for the EU the UK isn't Ireland and their democracy means something and hand on heart i'd say if there ever is a second Brexit vote the leave vote will increase.

Opinion polling says you're wrong.

Kidchameleon · 03-07-2019 12:58pm

source wrote: »

If you can't point to something because you weren't at the negotiation then how can you be so sure it exists?

The UK have not left because they can't come to a united position. 27 countries came together, agreed a position and stuck with that position. 1 country cannot even come to an agreement internally as to how to leave the EU.

The only one responsible for the UK not leaving the EU is the UK due to their indecision, lack of foresight and internal backstabbing.

Teresa May is the main person responsible but are you saying the EU just said sure go on lads close the door on your way out? I know Junker said something of the sort early on but his actions since contradict that.

Boggles · 03-07-2019 12:59pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Opinion polling says you're wrong.

TBF, they wrong the first time too.

Kidchameleon · 03-07-2019 1:00pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Opinion polling says you're wrong.

Opinion polling said Brexit would not pass, it also said Hilldog would win.

Kidchameleon · 03-07-2019 1:02pm

Putin is a legend and would wipe the floor with Teresa May. She should not be crying like a baby when she was put in charge of negotiating with the EU. It shows that they just walked all over her.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 1:02pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Opinion polling said Brexit would not pass, it also said Hilldog would win.

What's a Hilldog?

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 1:03pm

Boggles wrote: »

TBF, they wrong the first time too.

Indeed. But they are usually a good straw in the wind.

source · 03-07-2019 1:04pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Teresa May is the main person responsible but are you saying the EU just said sure go on lads close the door on your way out? I know Junker said something of the sort early on but his actions since contradict that.

Did the 27 remaining countries come to a decision and stick to it?

Has the UK's approach been full of infighting and back stabbing?

Of course the EU is going to facilitate the UK staying in the union, its the preferred position and makes the most economic sense.
The UK have come to the EU twice looking for extensions because they can't make a decision. The EU has not forced the extensions on the UK.

But let's not let facts get in the way of your narrative.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 1:04pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Putin is a legend and would wipe the floor with Teresa May. She should not be crying like a baby when she was put in charge of negotiating with the EU. It shows that they just walked all over her.

Is Putin up for EU President?

spurious · 03-07-2019 1:08pm

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Putin is a legend and would wipe the floor with Teresa May. She should not be crying like a baby when she was put in charge of negotiating with the EU. It shows that they just walked all over her.

Ah.
This explains a great deal.

InTheShadows · 03-07-2019 1:12pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Opinion polling says you're wrong.

I spend a lot of time on the road driving a coach in the UK over the last 25 years and from talking to people and friends i have over there in the last year or so positions have become more entrenched. The polls where wrong the first time so i wouldn't put any credence in them at all.

Also this constant narrative that everyone who voted for Brexit is a racist or other vile abuse thrown at them hasn't helped the remainers in the slightest with their campaign to over throw the democratic will of the people.

Tell me how · 03-07-2019 1:18pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

Also this constant narrative that everyone who voted for Brexit is a racist or other vile abuse thrown at them hasn't helped the remainers in the slightest with their campaign to over throw the democratic will of the people.

They're not talking about overthrowing anything.
They're talking about letting people vote again given the 3 years since the referendum, the realisation that promises beforehand were just lies, the shambles in the HoC since and the absence of a workable plan from anyone in the UK.

Having a 2nd vote within the next year would be democracy in action.

Boggles · 03-07-2019 1:21pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

Also this constant narrative that everyone who voted for Brexit is a racist or other vile abuse thrown at them

A lot of them were though, and a lot of them were just simpletons who would believe anything as long as it was written on the side of a bus.

Not strictly all their fault, the red tops and the populist inbred rich politicians poked the hive as well. Of course none of them will suffer.

But the proof is in the pudding, Brexit was going to be "easy", well no. They were sold a pup.

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 1:23pm

InTheShadows wrote: »

I spend a lot of time on the road driving a coach in the UK over the last 25 years and from talking to people and friends i have over there in the last year or so positions have become more entrenched. The polls where wrong the first time so i wouldn't put any credence in them at all.

Anecdote =/= data.

InTheShadows wrote: »

Also this constant narrative that everyone who voted for Brexit is a racist or other vile abuse thrown at them hasn't helped the remainers in the slightest with their campaign to over throw the democratic will of the people.

It might help if Brexiters actually made their own arguments instead of lying, taking foreign capital dishonestly and spouting meaningless soundbytes. The hypocrisy helps none either.

Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

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