Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Tenzor07 · 10-03-2020 2:16pm

Anyone else read that Korean Airlines are to close down all operations?

Also see that Norwegian are cutting 3000 flights and bringing in staff layoffs...

crisco10 · 10-03-2020 3:10pm

General question from someone not in the industry; would airlines have some sort of Business interruption insurance? As more and more no travel notices are enforced, I'd imagine these would become payable...?

Inquitus · 10-03-2020 3:32pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0310/1121312-virgin-atlantic-virus/

Virgin Atlantic has admitted flying planes that are "almost empty" in order to keep take-off and landing slots despite demand plummeting due to the coronavirus.

The airline's chief executive Shai Weiss said the airline is being "forced" to continue with flights because rules about slot allocation have not been relaxed.

Slots at capacity-constrained airports such as Heathrow can be worth millions of pounds.

The European Union operates a so-called "use it or lose it" rule which means airlines must use 80% of their slots or risk them being taken away in the following year.

Caranica · 10-03-2020 3:53pm

EU temporarily suspending requirements to fly in order to retain slots

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1237384575698911237?s=19

L1011 · 10-03-2020 4:41pm

crisco10 wrote: »

General question from someone not in the industry; would airlines have some sort of Business interruption insurance? As more and more no travel notices are enforced, I'd imagine these would become payable...?

That type of insurance is normally only useful once and then becomes too expensive to justify.

Hotblack Desiato · 10-03-2020 5:20pm

Caranica wrote: »

EU temporarily suspending requirements to fly in order to retain slots

Ah good. I was going to suggest Virgin could hire in some ex-Flybe Dash 8s cheaply to occupy their slots

d51984 · 10-03-2020 5:33pm

Air hostess in Clayton hotel Clonshaugh at the center of a scare there today. Whole 3rd floor sealed off. My sister works there.

kevinandrew · 10-03-2020 5:42pm

How long can Aer Lingus remain silent on this? Last official update was February 27th and their current approach is doing them no favours. The airline continues to state that it will contact customers affected but at this stage, in such a volatile situation coupled with media hysteria, it's not good enough.

There needs to be an updated statement identifying routes, dates and their policy for passengers affected.

The only reason we know they've cancelled flights to Italy until April 4th is because individuals have gone to the effort of searching their booking engine for information.

IngazZagni · 10-03-2020 9:04pm

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

Ah good. I was going to suggest Virgin could hire in some ex-Flybe Dash 8s cheaply to occupy their slots

I saw some of the Flybe planes in Glasgow yesterday and they had snow plowing equipment blocking them on their stand. Would whoever's buys the aircraft have to pay the debt owed to the airport I wonder?

smurfjed · 10-03-2020 9:22pm

Would whoever's buys the aircraft have to pay the debt owed to the airport I wonder?

Really depends on who owns the aircraft, if they belong to FLYBE via a bank, then the administrator will be forced to pay the airport to release them, if they belong to a leasing company, then they can have them released as they are not responsible for FLYBE’s debts.

smurfjed · 10-03-2020 10:17pm

Just got this from TURKISH airlines,

The safety and well-being of our passengers and crew is our utmost priority at Turkish Airlines. Since the first reports of the Covid-19 outbreak in the news, Turkish Airlines has followed the developments closely, considered the probable scenarios at the highest level and taken all the necessary measures.

Upon completing a flight, all Turkish Airlines aircraft undergo a thorough cleaning process, in compliance with the national and international civil aviation authorities’ guidelines that include the wiping of the commonly-touched surfaces in the flight cabin and lavatories including toilets, tray tables, armrests, seatbelt buckles and in-flight entertainment screens with disinfectants. All blankets, linens, headrest covers, bedsheets and headsets are replaced with fresh sets for each flight.

Turkish Airlines has declared that all passenger flights to mainland China, Iran, Iraq, South Korea and Italy had been cancelled. The entire flight cabins of all our aircraft arriving from Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand undergo an intensive cleaning which also includes disinfectant fogging that has proven effective against existent viruses including the novel coronavirus known to cause Covid-19.

During flight, the air in the cabin is refreshed constantly by air conditioning units equipped with hospital-grade, High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filtration systems. The air in the cabin is completely changed 15 to 30 times per hour as particles of dust and all known airborne bacteria and viruses are filtered. This ensures the highest possible quality of cabin air. In addition to premium cleaning products in all our aircraft, medical disinfectants are also available in the aircraft lavatories for flights to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. All Turkish Airlines crew is well informed and trained to handle contamination cases and is ready to assist in any case of medical emergency.

The Covid-19 epidemic is a complicated situation that requires concerted efforts on both national and international level to tackle and Turkish Airlines is working closely with all relevant authorities and adapting its precautionary measures accordingly to ensure your safety and well-being both on the ground and in the air. Thank you for your support and understanding.

Very proactive but at the same time I can’t believe that as a country, they have zero cases, or aren’t they doing any testing so that the number stays at zero.

Coil Kilcrea · 10-03-2020 10:25pm

smurfjed wrote: »

Just got this from TURKISH airlines,

Very proactive but at the same time I can’t believe that as a country, they have zero cases, or aren’t they doing any testing so that the number stays at zero.

That is impressive and reassuring to the extent they appear to be doing everything possible. Not so sure the same standard will apply in a low cost carrier environment.

Tenzor07 · 11-03-2020 10:44am

smurfjed wrote: »

Very proactive but at the same time I can’t believe that as a country, they have zero cases, or aren’t they doing any testing so that the number stays at zero.

First case reported in Turkey:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-turkey-first-case-virus

Coil Kilcrea · 11-03-2020 10:47am

Beggars belief that it hasn't appeared more in the Middle East and Africa. And in under developed Countries where they may not have the best resources to test and contain it.

Kev11491 · 11-03-2020 11:15am

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

Beggars belief that it hasn't appeared more in the Middle East and Africa. And in under developed Countries where they may not have the best resources to test and contain it.

Europe, Asia and North America all have massive aviation markets and a population that can afford to travel and spread it.

Lapmo_Dancer · 11-03-2020 1:24pm

It would be naive to take the official UAE figures as the truth.

Blut2 · 11-03-2020 2:04pm

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

Beggars belief that it hasn't appeared more in the Middle East and Africa. And in under developed Countries where they may not have the best resources to test and contain it.

This is probably down to a few factors:

- The virus doesn't seem to be spreading anywhere near as much in warm climates, even in countries with high population density, and lots of contact with China - Singapore, Vietnam etc. So parts of MEA that are warm are likely benefiting from this.
- Poor countries don't have good medical systems, so likely aren't testing properly for it. And even if the hospitals/state have tests, large parts of the population will be too poor to consider going to hospital if they're sick.
- Lower levels of transport/economic links to China as another poster mentioned slowing the spread
- And as also already mentioned, totalitarian governments are likely to downplay any numbers so as not to panic the population/cause economic damage.

smurfjed · 11-03-2020 4:24pm

Have you seen photographs of the two Islamic mosques in Makkah and Madinah, they are absolutely empty, Saudi immediately closed them and banned religious passengers, without this prompt action you would have seen much higher figures spreading out from Saudi around the world.

The 21 people infected in Saudi came mainly from Iran via Kuwait and Bahrain, hence the reason for high numbers in those countries, most of these people are Shia Moslem, so the authorities locked down the city that they live in.

Tenzor07 · 11-03-2020 4:42pm

On the aviation front..... Aerologic, Cathay, Korean air, Alitalia, Norwegian all teetering on the brink of collapse...

Less choice in the European aviation market, we'll end up like the U.S with only 4 major airlines..

Hotblack Desiato · 11-03-2020 7:30pm

In fairness when have Alitalia and Norwegian not been on the brink of collapse...
I would have thought Cathay would have a healthy cash pile, but of course this is coming off the back of the HK protests

cson · 11-03-2020 9:23pm

Tenzor07 wrote: »

On the aviation front..... Aerologic, Cathay, Korean air, Alitalia, Norwegian all teetering on the brink of collapse...

Less choice in the European aviation market, we'll end up like the U.S with only 4 major airlines..

The US has the big 3 [AA/UA/DL] for sure but WN, B6, AS, NK, F9 are all pretty substantial operators too.

GM228 · 12-03-2020 2:09am

All travel from Europe (except the UK) to the USA banned from Friday for 30 days, that's really going to hurt European carriers.

kevinandrew · 12-03-2020 2:11am

Absolute insanity, he blames Europe and only Europe. The UK is excluded from the ban.

It will be devastating for Aer Lingus, and indeed other European carriers.

cson · 12-03-2020 2:12am

EI are hosed.

Genuine sympathies to anyone working, this will be grim as ****.

GM228 · 12-03-2020 2:13am

kevinandrew wrote: »

Absolute insanity, he blames Europe and only Europe. The UK is excluded from the ban.

It will be devastating for Aer Lingus, and indeed other European carriers.

He must think the UK left Europe, not the EU

bluelamp · 12-03-2020 2:19am

So technically Belfast - USA would be allowed, but not Dublin / Shannon - USA?

Strange times.

Hotblack Desiato · 12-03-2020 2:47am

He's some d!ckhead, but there'll still be the usual suspects on this site defending him.

GM228 · 12-03-2020 2:57am

Ireland is exempt from the travel ban also, confirmed by Homeland Security press release moments ago.

Hotblack Desiato · 12-03-2020 3:16am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmPhaG1ud38

sdanseo · 12-03-2020 3:19am

Schengen only. Relief for EI, but totally illogical from a containment point of view.
Could put us in danger in fact. People could travel here to get to USA. They would have to stay outside Schengen for 14 days first to be compliant meaning we could get tons of 14-day layovers if this gets extended.

Realt Dearg Sec · 12-03-2020 3:30am

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

Nijmegen · 12-03-2020 7:37am

sdanseo wrote: »

Schengen only. Relief for EI, but totally illogical from a containment point of view.
Could put us in danger in fact. People could travel here to get to USA. They would have to stay outside Schengen for 14 days first to be compliant meaning we could get tons of 14-day layovers if this gets extended.

I doubt we’ll get a tonne of 14 day layovers, but EI and Dublin airport are relying a lot now on transfer pax and this will hit them hard. Plus travellers coming to Ireland who see it’s not banned for now, but might be, or who are just scared of the whole thing.

smurfjed · 12-03-2020 8:11am

Our ME based cabin crew have just gotten the nice email, “do you want unpaid leave”, but with most destinations on a NO-FLY list, this basically means staying here without a salary.

LiamaDelta · 12-03-2020 8:47am

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

If it was me I'd hold off for a month until you know more. If it becomes very prevalent in the US then you can't take the chance of bringing it over with you. The main reason there won't be any flights is if the virus is still in the community and it's not safe to travel.
Forget about travelling for time being and focus on supporting your Mam.

ednwireland · 12-03-2020 9:29am

how long can airlines last with this level of shutdown

Tenger · 12-03-2020 11:58am

Airlines that dont rely on the US traffic should be somewhat insulated. (BA, LH, AF-KL, FR, EZ,)
EI however have 60% transfer passengers, once the Yanks stop travelling then say goodbye to that 60%

For the largest sector if other countries follow suit then we could see massive shutdowns globally.

martinsvi · 12-03-2020 12:08pm

Tenger wrote: »

Airlines that dont rely on the US traffic should be somewhat insulated. (BA, LH, AF-KL, FR, EZ,)
EI however have 60% transfer passengers, once the Yanks stop travelling then say goodbye to that 60%

For the largest sector if other countries follow suit then we could see massive shutdowns globally.

we don't fly to US in my company but things are looking very grim as they are. We cancelled all services to Italy and some other destinations, bookings have almost dried up, people are cancelling their travel plans, aircraft flying half empty, job cuts and aircraft grounding announced. Next few months are going to be super tough for everyone, it's like 9/11 all over again if not worse..

Tenger · 12-03-2020 12:36pm

100% agree. Memories of 9/11.

While this may rebound quicker than the 2008/09 financial crash the immediate effect will be a lot worse.

easypazz · 12-03-2020 1:40pm

ednwireland wrote: »

how long can airlines last with this level of shutdown

Id say the bigger ones can hold out for a few months by cutting routes etc. After that it will all come crashing down auickly.

martinsvi · 12-03-2020 3:49pm

if the company has large financial backing, such as government, wealthy investors, oil money etc, I'd say they can last for as long as their donors have their optimism.

For everybody else - depends how quickly they can restructurize , cut costs, people, fleet, routes etc. The quicker you do it, the better chances for survival. For many companies aircraft are leased and the money needs to go into lessor account whether you fly it or not. Giving the aircraft back is also an expensive ordeal as they typically need to be returned with a fresh C-check and there might be clauses in the contract penalizing airline for early return. So the more aircraft you have to put aside, the more you will bleed out money. In my company they are considering grounding 1/3 of the fleet, if this goes ahead I'd say we will be bankrupt in 2-4 months

billy few mates · 12-03-2020 3:56pm

martinsvi wrote: »

For many companies aircraft are leased and the money needs to go into lessor account whether you fly it or not. Giving the aircraft back is also an expensive ordeal as they typically need to be returned with a fresh C-check and there might be clauses in the contract penalizing airline for early return. So the more aircraft you have to put aside, the more you will bleed out money.

It's called the hell or high water clause, it's one of the main planks in every aircraft leasing agreement. Regardless of the difficulties you find yourself in, regardless of the cause of these difficulties, the rent has to be paid on the due date or the lease is in default...

NSAman · 12-03-2020 5:13pm

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

I am in the same situation. Was hoping to go home for Easter and some family anniversaries but while air fares were cheap, I am still worried about the situation developing further and any impact it may have on Elderly mother from me flying.

I have decided to wait this out, to see how things pan out.

I am 100% sure that if anything happens to family in Ireland I will get there no matter how I have to. If borders are completely sealed so be it, I can organise work from Ireland (the joys of being able to do so).

Contingencies have been put in place in our work place both in Europe and here in the States, so with all the new cleanliness and home working policies am hoping this makes our health more secure should travel be required.

For me, stay put at the moment. See how the whole process unfolds. Not having a few thousand to waste is difficult for all of us, but be safe and not sorry........ hoping Grandparents get to meet the baby ASAP.

Realt Dearg Sec · 12-03-2020 5:33pm

NSAman wrote: »

I am in the same situation. Was hoping to go home for Easter and some family anniversaries but while air fares were cheap, I am still worried about the situation developing further and any impact it may have on Elderly mother from me flying.

I have decided to wait this out, to see how things pan out.

I am 100% sure that if anything happens to family in Ireland I will get there no matter how I have to. If borders are completely sealed so be it, I can organise work from Ireland (the joys of being able to do so).

Contingencies have been put in place in our work place both in Europe and here in the States, so with all the new cleanliness and home working policies am hoping this makes our health more secure should travel be required.

For me, stay put at the moment. See how the whole process unfolds. Not having a few thousand to waste is difficult for all of us, but be safe and not sorry........ hoping Grandparents get to meet the baby ASAP.

Yeah I mean I wouldn't be going until June anyway, but if there's an emergency reason for me to go home I'll be in a position to do it, same as yourself. In fact it's almost a guarantee I'll be working entirely online for the next few weeks anyway, which I'd be able to do in Ireland if necessary.

As you say, there's a more urgent concern than having a holiday back home right now. Hope everyone's family here gets through it anyway.

smurfjed · 12-03-2020 5:42pm

In my company they are considering grounding 1/3 of the fleet, if this goes ahead I'd say we will be bankrupt in 2-4 months

that’s not a fun scenario to live with. In my unique case, I’m hoping that the bosses pockets are extremely deep.

alastair · 12-03-2020 7:15pm

easypazz wrote: »

Id say the bigger ones can hold out for a few months by cutting routes etc. After that it will all come crashing down auickly.

Swiss seem to have a limited US service (Chicago and Newark) planned - presumably routing via the UK.

smurfjed · 12-03-2020 8:23pm

presumably routing via the UK.

which will achieve absolutely noting as the question will be asked “have you visited Switzerland in the last 14 days”.

bk · 12-03-2020 9:13pm

Mr.S wrote: »

How many people would take 2+ weeks to travel to the US though? Very few.

And seemingly (and stupidly) the 14 day rule doesn't apply to US citizens, even if they were in the Schengen area. So they would likely just transition through Dublin and Heathrow straight to the US.

I can't see any non Americans bothering to come here for 14 days, to then head to the US.

Marcusm · 12-03-2020 9:23pm

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

What’s your status in the US? If you are a lawful permanent resident or citizen then you should be permitted re-entry although you might be subject to post re-entry conduct restrictions. Tickets seem to be heading down and, in your case, I would book. The virus will become more endemic with time but, as long as the peak is delayed, the health systems should cope. Provided you don’t bring the virus to your immunocompromised mother, I would not deny her the company if her grandchild!

Marcusm · 12-03-2020 9:26pm

Tenger wrote: »

Airlines that dont rely on the US traffic should be somewhat insulated. (BA, LH, AF-KL, FR, EZ,)
EI however have 60% transfer passengers, once the Yanks stop travelling then say goodbye to that 60%

For the largest sector if other countries follow suit then we could see massive shutdowns globally.

BA’s profitable routes are Far East and USA so I would see it as heavily reliant on US traffic given that the Far East (esp HKG and Tokyo) have fallen off a cliff.

GM228 · 12-03-2020 11:02pm

Hardly surprising, probably one of the most at danger of collapse airlines, assume very near the top of the list if not already there:-
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238215785258123264?s=19

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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