Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Realt Dearg Sec

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

Nijmegen

sdanseo wrote: »

Schengen only. Relief for EI, but totally illogical from a containment point of view.
Could put us in danger in fact. People could travel here to get to USA. They would have to stay outside Schengen for 14 days first to be compliant meaning we could get tons of 14-day layovers if this gets extended.

I doubt we’ll get a tonne of 14 day layovers, but EI and Dublin airport are relying a lot now on transfer pax and this will hit them hard. Plus travellers coming to Ireland who see it’s not banned for now, but might be, or who are just scared of the whole thing.

smurfjed

Our ME based cabin crew have just gotten the nice email, “do you want unpaid leave”, but with most destinations on a NO-FLY list, this basically means staying here without a salary.

LiamaDelta

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

If it was me I'd hold off for a month until you know more. If it becomes very prevalent in the US then you can't take the chance of bringing it over with you. The main reason there won't be any flights is if the virus is still in the community and it's not safe to travel.
Forget about travelling for time being and focus on supporting your Mam.

ednwireland

how long can airlines last with this level of shutdown

Tenger

Airlines that dont rely on the US traffic should be somewhat insulated. (BA, LH, AF-KL, FR, EZ,)
EI however have 60% transfer passengers, once the Yanks stop travelling then say goodbye to that 60%

For the largest sector if other countries follow suit then we could see massive shutdowns globally.

martinsvi

Tenger wrote: »

Airlines that dont rely on the US traffic should be somewhat insulated. (BA, LH, AF-KL, FR, EZ,)
EI however have 60% transfer passengers, once the Yanks stop travelling then say goodbye to that 60%

For the largest sector if other countries follow suit then we could see massive shutdowns globally.

we don't fly to US in my company but things are looking very grim as they are. We cancelled all services to Italy and some other destinations, bookings have almost dried up, people are cancelling their travel plans, aircraft flying half empty, job cuts and aircraft grounding announced. Next few months are going to be super tough for everyone, it's like 9/11 all over again if not worse..

Tenger

100% agree. Memories of 9/11.

While this may rebound quicker than the 2008/09 financial crash the immediate effect will be a lot worse.

easypazz

ednwireland wrote: »

how long can airlines last with this level of shutdown

Id say the bigger ones can hold out for a few months by cutting routes etc. After that it will all come crashing down auickly.

martinsvi

if the company has large financial backing, such as government, wealthy investors, oil money etc, I'd say they can last for as long as their donors have their optimism.

For everybody else - depends how quickly they can restructurize , cut costs, people, fleet, routes etc. The quicker you do it, the better chances for survival. For many companies aircraft are leased and the money needs to go into lessor account whether you fly it or not. Giving the aircraft back is also an expensive ordeal as they typically need to be returned with a fresh C-check and there might be clauses in the contract penalizing airline for early return. So the more aircraft you have to put aside, the more you will bleed out money. In my company they are considering grounding 1/3 of the fleet, if this goes ahead I'd say we will be bankrupt in 2-4 months

billy few mates

martinsvi wrote: »

For many companies aircraft are leased and the money needs to go into lessor account whether you fly it or not. Giving the aircraft back is also an expensive ordeal as they typically need to be returned with a fresh C-check and there might be clauses in the contract penalizing airline for early return. So the more aircraft you have to put aside, the more you will bleed out money.

It's called the hell or high water clause, it's one of the main planks in every aircraft leasing agreement. Regardless of the difficulties you find yourself in, regardless of the cause of these difficulties, the rent has to be paid on the due date or the lease is in default...

NSAman

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

I am in the same situation. Was hoping to go home for Easter and some family anniversaries but while air fares were cheap, I am still worried about the situation developing further and any impact it may have on Elderly mother from me flying.

I have decided to wait this out, to see how things pan out.

I am 100% sure that if anything happens to family in Ireland I will get there no matter how I have to. If borders are completely sealed so be it, I can organise work from Ireland (the joys of being able to do so).

Contingencies have been put in place in our work place both in Europe and here in the States, so with all the new cleanliness and home working policies am hoping this makes our health more secure should travel be required.

For me, stay put at the moment. See how the whole process unfolds. Not having a few thousand to waste is difficult for all of us, but be safe and not sorry........ hoping Grandparents get to meet the baby ASAP.

Realt Dearg Sec

NSAman wrote: »

I am in the same situation. Was hoping to go home for Easter and some family anniversaries but while air fares were cheap, I am still worried about the situation developing further and any impact it may have on Elderly mother from me flying.

I have decided to wait this out, to see how things pan out.

I am 100% sure that if anything happens to family in Ireland I will get there no matter how I have to. If borders are completely sealed so be it, I can organise work from Ireland (the joys of being able to do so).

Contingencies have been put in place in our work place both in Europe and here in the States, so with all the new cleanliness and home working policies am hoping this makes our health more secure should travel be required.

For me, stay put at the moment. See how the whole process unfolds. Not having a few thousand to waste is difficult for all of us, but be safe and not sorry........ hoping Grandparents get to meet the baby ASAP.

Yeah I mean I wouldn't be going until June anyway, but if there's an emergency reason for me to go home I'll be in a position to do it, same as yourself. In fact it's almost a guarantee I'll be working entirely online for the next few weeks anyway, which I'd be able to do in Ireland if necessary.

As you say, there's a more urgent concern than having a holiday back home right now. Hope everyone's family here gets through it anyway.

smurfjed

In my company they are considering grounding 1/3 of the fleet, if this goes ahead I'd say we will be bankrupt in 2-4 months

that’s not a fun scenario to live with. In my unique case, I’m hoping that the bosses pockets are extremely deep.

alastair

easypazz wrote: »

Id say the bigger ones can hold out for a few months by cutting routes etc. After that it will all come crashing down auickly.

Swiss seem to have a limited US service (Chicago and Newark) planned - presumably routing via the UK.

smurfjed

presumably routing via the UK.

which will achieve absolutely noting as the question will be asked “have you visited Switzerland in the last 14 days”.

bk

Mr.S wrote: »

How many people would take 2+ weeks to travel to the US though? Very few.

And seemingly (and stupidly) the 14 day rule doesn't apply to US citizens, even if they were in the Schengen area. So they would likely just transition through Dublin and Heathrow straight to the US.

I can't see any non Americans bothering to come here for 14 days, to then head to the US.

Marcusm

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

As someone living in America, but with plans to come home for a month in summer, I was wondering if anyone on this thread had any thoughts about whether I should go ahead and book, or hold off?

I mean, my main concern with the virus is actually that my mam might get it as she's immunocompromised, but setting side that very scary possibility, I do still want to be able to come visit. Even from a money perspective, setting aside the situation with grounding of flights and the possibility there might not be flights at all, are the prices of flights likely to keep falling?

(I know it sounds like a trivial question in the context of the more serious issue here, but it costs the bones of 3,500 quid to bring over the family so my parents can meet their only grandchild, money I don't have just lying around, so it's a pretty big question for me!)

What’s your status in the US? If you are a lawful permanent resident or citizen then you should be permitted re-entry although you might be subject to post re-entry conduct restrictions. Tickets seem to be heading down and, in your case, I would book. The virus will become more endemic with time but, as long as the peak is delayed, the health systems should cope. Provided you don’t bring the virus to your immunocompromised mother, I would not deny her the company if her grandchild!

Marcusm

Tenger wrote: »

Airlines that dont rely on the US traffic should be somewhat insulated. (BA, LH, AF-KL, FR, EZ,)
EI however have 60% transfer passengers, once the Yanks stop travelling then say goodbye to that 60%

For the largest sector if other countries follow suit then we could see massive shutdowns globally.

BA’s profitable routes are Far East and USA so I would see it as heavily reliant on US traffic given that the Far East (esp HKG and Tokyo) have fallen off a cliff.

GM228

Hardly surprising, probably one of the most at danger of collapse airlines, assume very near the top of the list if not already there:-
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238215785258123264?s=19

Hotblack Desiato

ednwireland wrote: »

how long can airlines last with this level of shutdown

Depends on how much pain they can pass on to their employees - layoffs etc. Much more so in the US than the EU, "contractors" excepted.

Leases still have to be paid unless aircraft are sent back, and terminating a lease comes at a cost too

Airlines which own most of their frames will be in a better position, but grounded aircraft still need a level of maintenance.

Ain't gonna be pretty. But many industries will suffer also. IT excepted - everybody is going crazy trying to buy laptops / tablets for employees to work remotely. My job put in an order from A Very Large Vendor Indeed and got 30% of it, that's the best they can do for now.

martinsvi - just seeing your post now. Hope things work out OK for you, and everyone else on this thread, personally and professionally.

d51984

In a very extreme case of getting Irish people home from Italy if theres any left that is, can we not fly them in to Baldonnell and transport the up the n7 to the Curragh for 2 weeks isolation?

Talking extreme cases here, its a bit late now. Would of been effective 2 weeks ago.

d51984

Even people flying back from cheltenham, in to Baldonnel to be checked, then to the Currugh Camp if needed.

Hotblack Desiato

bk wrote: »

And seemingly (and stupidly) the 14 day rule doesn't apply to US citizens, even if they were in the Schengen area.

You can't really refuse entry to your own citizens though - unfair to make them some other country's problem to deal with - but they should be quarantined if there is any doubt.

GM228

Could Baldonnel even handle a commercial jet and all it entails?

I think the runway is just about long enough for the likes of an A320 or 737NG given the right conditions (but not 100% certain), but what about unloading facilities, luggage, immigration etc?

d51984

Im sure ive seen a 767 and 757 at Baldonel before. Anyway its a bit late now, should of been done 2 weeks ago. But then again, all the heads coming back from Cheltenham....

bk

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

You can't really refuse entry to your own citizens though - unfair to make them some other country's problem to deal with - but they should be quarantined if there is any doubt.

Of course absolutely right, I didn't specify it, but when I said "stupid", the stupid part is as you say, not quarantining their own citizens who return.

cson

GM228 wrote: »

Hardly surprising, probably one of the most at danger of collapse airlines, assume very near the top of the list if not already there:-
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238215785258123264?s=19

DY's enterprise value is approx $110m right now.

Right about price after discount of one 787, of which they operate 37. Granted they're all leased but optically its crazy!

smurfjed

DY's enterprise value is approx $110m right now.

What exactly is “enterprise value”?

Coil Kilcrea

smurfjed wrote: »

What exactly is “enterprise value”?

Effectively, its net worth or value at any given time.