Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

tylercollins · 24-07-2012 12:45am

chrisjdoran wrote: »

Just means our sun is experiencing something that has not happened in 300 years of watching it, the 11 year cycle of sunspots/solar activity repeats every 11 years, except we are still approaching a solar maximum that should have happened last year, so expect a few extremes weather wise..

I'll translate for you..

Just means our sun is experiencing something that has not happened in 300 years of watching it, the 11 year cycle of sunspots/solar activity repeats every 11 years, except we are still approaching a solar maximum that should have happened last year, so expect a few extremes weather wise.. :P

gbee · 24-07-2012 9:02am

tylercollins wrote: »

that should have happened last year, so expect a few extremes weather wise.. :P

and the discussion is whether the Sun stays 'asleep' and enters its 11 year minimum cycle [without having a maximum cycle] which will leave us stranded in bad weather potential for a period of 11 more years or if the Sun is stuck in its Moulder minimum ....

touts · 24-07-2012 11:53am

After a few years of study of the various forecast techniques I have come to the following conslusions:

The sun is too active = It rains on Ireland
The sun is too quite = It rains on Ireland
The sun is in perfect balance = it rains on Ireland
The Jet Stream is too far north = it rains on Ireland
The Jet stream is too far south = it rains on Ireland
The Jet stream is in perfect balance = it rains on Ireland
The Moon is too close = it rains on Ireland
The Moon is too far away = it rains on Ireland.
The Moon is in perfect balance = it rains on Ireland.
The fox sh1t is too pale = it rains on Ireland
The fox sh1t is too dark = it rains on Ireland
The fox sh1t is just perfect - it rains on Ireland

I HATE this bloody summer/winter/autumn/spring. If it wasn't for the calendar on my phone I wouldn't have had a clue what time of the year it was for the last 18 months.

gbee · 24-07-2012 4:28pm

touts wrote: »

I HATE this bloody summer/winter/autumn/spring. If it wasn't for the calendar on my phone I wouldn't have had a clue what time of the year it was for the last 18 months.

It has been prophesied that when one doth not tell apart the seasons, the END Of The WORLD is nigh!

Big Tone · 24-07-2012 4:37pm

gbee wrote: »

It has been prophesied that when one doth not tell apart the seasons, the END Of The WORLD is nigh!

Does that apply to the rest of the World too becasue from what I can make out it's only Ireland that's suffering this particular maladie of season non-differenciation.

wildefalcon · 24-07-2012 10:10pm

Big Tone wrote: »

Does that apply to the rest of the World too becasue from what I can make out it's only Ireland that's suffering this particular maladie of season non-differenciation.

No, just Ireland. Next up on the list is economic disaster.

No.

Wait.

Sorry, that was earlier on the list.

touts · 24-07-2012 10:20pm

gbee wrote: »

It has been prophesied that when one doth not tell apart the seasons, the END Of The WORLD is nigh!

Well on the upside if the world does end this mid winter at least it will stop raining. Unfortunately I fear we'll all wake up on December 22nd with no Christmas shopping done and it will be around 13 degrees with a nasty heavy mist (basically today but 5 degrees colder)

cocoshovel · 25-07-2012 1:59am

I hear tis gonna be the cowldest winter in forty years!

wildefalcon · 25-07-2012 9:08am

cocoshovel wrote: »

I hear tis gonna be the cowldest winter in forty years!

Right, I'm off to buy a wood burner, so.

Mr Benevolent · 25-07-2012 11:01am

It'll probably be the mildest winter in 500 years.

davidsr20 · 28-07-2012 8:12pm

I really hope we get some cold this year. An other mild winter would be very bad ,

ShawB · 29-07-2012 6:29pm

Looking forward to this Winter to see what were in for. It wont be a real winter forum until bb arrives though. King of the snow bunnies. :L

Sponge Bob · 29-07-2012 9:19pm

This is a weather forum not a winter forum. Start your own winter forum.

Lucreto · 29-07-2012 9:39pm

Just a thought was last Winter colder than some previous years?

Yes we got nothing because of the Azores High over us but did the rest of the Northern Hemisphere recieved more or less snow/cold weather than average?

Alaska last year got huge amounts of snow and the European big freeze come to mind.

So what would be the general consensus?

Fiskar · 29-07-2012 10:07pm

Just a thought was last Winter colder than some previous years? No, it was very mild, we actually did not put on heating on Dec 26th (St Stephens Day). I don't recall any snow either.

Yes we got nothing because of the Azores High over us but did the rest of the Northern Hemisphere recieved more or less snow/cold weather than average? We escaped the worst of the weather that hit Europe and our neighbours.

Alaska last year got huge amounts of snow and the European big freeze come to mind.
So what would be the general consensus? We had a mild winter and we escaped the harsh cold weather that hit Europe especially Italy where snow levels around Opi 150km east of Rome hit levels that forced wolves down from the hills to roam for food in the town of Opi. (see attached picture from Feb 2012)

DylanII · 29-07-2012 10:27pm

Fiskar wrote: »

Just a thought was last Winter colder than some previous years? No, it was very mild, we actually did not put on heating on Dec 26th (St Stephens Day). I don't recall any snow either.

Yes we got nothing because of the Azores High over us but did the rest of the Northern Hemisphere recieved more or less snow/cold weather than average? We escaped the worst of the weather that hit Europe and our neighbours.

Alaska last year got huge amounts of snow and the European big freeze come to mind.
So what would be the general consensus? We had a mild winter and we escaped the harsh cold weather that hit Europe especially Italy where snow levels around Opi 150km east of Rome hit levels that forced wolves down from the hills to roam for food in the town of Opi. (see attached picture from Feb 2012)

Wow can't we get that kind of snow here? Please!

Fiskar · 29-07-2012 10:39pm

DylanII wrote: »

Wow can't we get that kind of snow here? Please!

Another photo from Sarajevo 2012 (Feb), yes those blobs are cars.

Com'on winter!

HellFireClub · 30-07-2012 5:16pm

Let me be the first poster to mention this word on the thread!

I smell Graupel !!!

:D:D

Big Tone · 30-07-2012 5:25pm

cocoshovel wrote: »

I hear tis gonna be the cowldest winter in forty years!

The Cowldest? Right, I'd better get the mother to nail down the last few tiles on the Cowshed roof and move the Cows in there asap!!

Baibin Sneachta · 08-08-2012 2:29am

Hello guys. Been following the tread a while now but it seems to be gone quite so I thought why not sigh up. Some great info and links on here, keep up the good work and lets make this winter happen.

:D:p:D:rolleyes:

jimmy.d · 09-08-2012 1:08am

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.ie/2012/05/solar-activity-start-to-summer-2012.html

mcriot29 · 17-08-2012 2:55pm

jimmy.d wrote: »

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.ie/2012/05/solar-activity-start-to-summer-2012.html

Hey anyone have any news on winter yet anymore tweets from joe b or mark vogan etc , just checking if any new views yet

tylercollins · 17-08-2012 4:00pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

Hey anyone have any news on winter yet anymore tweets from joe b or mark vogan etc , just checking if any new views yet

Sure Mark is now charging £33 a year for a subscription to his site so only people who pay that get to see any of his videos!

Su Campu · 17-08-2012 4:19pm

tylercollins wrote: »

Sure Mark is now charging £33 a year for a subscription to his site so only people who pay that get to see any of his videos!

He'd want to PAY ME the £33 to watch him....he's a waffler.

davidsr20 · 17-08-2012 7:57pm

I'm really hoping for a really cold one like winter 2010/11

Last year was a nightmare I remember 2 frosty mornings

derekon · 17-08-2012 9:32pm

Su Campu wrote: »

He'd want to PAY ME the £33 to watch him....he's a waffler.

:D:D:D My sentiments exactly Su!

I followed his winter prediction last year (worse fool me) and I will certainly not be paying him 33 sterling for more of his waffle..........the cheek of that Northern Irish / Scottish git !!!

D

H2UMrsRobinson · 17-08-2012 10:42pm

Hi Derekon, nice to see you back. I can hear the sound of neck muscles limbering up all over the country for the inevitable lamppost gazing. Whilst there's every chance we could get an Indian summer I'm also aware the precedent set by winter 10/11 means it could technically be only 8-12 weeks until snow territory. Looking forward to the winter boards everyone and BRING IT ON!

eskimocat · 17-08-2012 10:49pm

There must be something in the air this evening that is bringing people in mind of snow etc... I was just sitting thinking about the winter forecast and then happened on todays posts, H2UMRS.... here, here Well said!

Lucreto · 18-08-2012 12:19am

I am not too confident about this winter.

It is looking very similar to last year in some respects so I expect a warm winter.

Deep Easterly · 18-08-2012 12:22pm

I am not too bothered about a cold winter tbh as my love of cold and snow was moderated somewhat by the last couple of winters but at the risk of repeating myself yet again I really do hope this one will see a sky full of vigor with storms and squalls galore.

Sponge Bob · 18-08-2012 3:54pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I expect a warn winter.

I do too, that is GREAT news.

Su Campu · 18-08-2012 3:59pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I expect a warn winter.

Warn as in plenty or snow warnings?

DylanII · 18-08-2012 4:00pm

After looking around online most people seem to be expecting a very cold, snowy winter. Is there anyone that is expecting a mild one?

Su Campu · 18-08-2012 4:00pm

Lucreto wrote: »

I expect a warn winter.

Warn as in plenty or snow warnings?

Sponge Bob · 18-08-2012 4:03pm

I mean "warn" as in I warned of record high christmas day temps in 2011 and I was right.

mcriot29 · 18-08-2012 4:07pm

derekon wrote: »

Su Campu wrote: »

He'd want to PAY ME the £33 to watch him....he's a waffler.

:D:D:D My sentiments exactly Su!

I followed his winter prediction last year (worse fool me) and I will certainly not be paying him 33 sterling for more of his waffle..........the cheek of that Northern Irish / Scottish git !!!

D

Lol well said
The git

K_1 · 18-08-2012 5:41pm

DylanII wrote: »

After looking around online most people seem to be expecting a very cold, snowy winter. Is there anyone that is expecting a mild one?

Pretty much everyone is expecting an average (i.e. mild) winter, except some online long term forecasters who make forecasts to please their target audience so that they will sell.

delw · 18-08-2012 5:50pm

K_1 wrote: »

Pretty much everyone is expecting an average (i.e. mild) winter, except some online long term forecasters who make forecasts to please their target audience so that they will sell.

Any quotes or link's to these seeing as they too are long term forecasting themselves if they are expecting an average winter

Nabber · 18-08-2012 6:26pm

I'm expecting Santy this winter. He didnt visit last year.

Expect nothing good and seasons austerity to everyone this winter.

Sponge Bob · 18-08-2012 6:38pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

The git

There be people on this forum and all they ever do is post links to Vogan videos on Youtube as if that means that snow is on the way...the gits!!!!

Iancar29 · 18-08-2012 6:48pm

:cool:

Missymoohaa · 18-08-2012 7:00pm

Any word from the Postman yet on his Winter predictions? Anyone have a link if he has one.

Lucreto · 18-08-2012 7:34pm

Su Campu wrote: »

Warn as in plenty or snow warnings?

Lol I missed that spelling error.:o

Well it was twenty minutes passed midnight.:D

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I do too, that is GREAT news.

Speak for yourself I love the cold weather. Anyway this summer is one of the best for me just like last year nice and cool. I hope they are all like that for now on.:p

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Any word from the Postman yet on his Winter predictions? Anyone have a link if he has one.

He didn't make his prediction until October last year so we have a while to wait. I hope for cold and snow.

Baibin Sneachta · 19-08-2012 2:19am

Su Campu wrote: »

He'd want to PAY ME the £33 to watch him....he's a waffler.

Lol Su. I remember someone asked him last year how freezing rain was formed. He replied " its snow that turns to rain and re-freezes before it gets a chance to turn back in to snow"

snow joke !

:D:D:rolleyes:

Baibin Sneachta · 19-08-2012 2:29am

As for Mr Postie wheres this heatwave starting the 20th August :rolleyes:
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/08/18/basis18/euro/prec/12082512_1818.gif

:D:D Stick with An Post

:D:D :P :P

ACCU has released their forecast for Winter in the US. Looks good if we can only keep that NAO neg...
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

Iancar29 · 22-08-2012 9:39pm

SO ... who wants to guess when we'll see the first sub 0 º C 850 temps come back on the charts?

Lucreto · 22-08-2012 10:04pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

SO ... who wants to guess when we'll see the first sub 0 º C 850 temps come back on the charts?

What does this mean for the chart illiterate people such as myself?

okla · 23-08-2012 12:11am

Lucreto wrote: »

What does this mean for the chart illiterate people such as myself?

850 hPa level is roughly at 1.5 km, usually above the atmospheric boundary layer. That means there is no diurnal temperature variation, and the underlying surface such as cool sea doesn't affect it's temperature.

There's more detailed info in the sticky here http://http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2056447334?page=1

pauldry · 23-08-2012 12:25am

I expect a mild Winter this year but you dont always get what you expect.

Basically if push came to shove Id say

December Mild
January Mild
February Cooler

No Christmas 2010 episodes anyways

Its too far away to predict though and a lot can change but I expect parts of Europe and US to get a very cold Winter coz of the warm Summer to balance their climates.

Our Summer hasnt been very warm apart from August and even that has been wet

Musicman2000 · 23-08-2012 12:52am

Ive being watching the CFS daily charts and looking at the trends, I would expect a cold November and December and Jan and Feb to be around average to mild

Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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