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Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

1575860626377

Comments

  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Really like NZ at -4.5. Where you getting that price?

    Want to back France also but they’ve burnt me too many times before.

    PP

    the top two are @ 10/11 and the NZ is 4/6 ..... which gives a treble of slightly over 5/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,291 ✭✭✭All_in_Flynn


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    PP

    the top two are @ 10/11 and the NZ is 4/6 ..... which gives a treble of slightly over 5/1

    Ah ok, cheers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,800 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Looking at an SF foursome of New Zealand, South Africa, England and Wales at round 4/1 as my main bet. Not sure Wales are much better than 50/50 to top their group though...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Japan -39 10/11
    Japan by 61 or more 9/2
    Japan by 80 or more 35/1
    Matsushima and laefele both score a try 6/4

    Australia win by 1-12

    Aldritt to score a try France to win 4/1
    France -1 10/11

    Sa +3 half time 1/1
    Sa to win 9/5

    Double on
    Japan 61 or more
    France -1
    19/2


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,399 ✭✭✭Miley Byrne


    Match accumulator
    Japan -40
    Australia -16
    South Africa +6
    Namibia +29
    England -39

    Roughly 26/1


    Pool winners accumulator
    Pool A Ireland
    Pool B South Africa
    Pool C England
    Pool D Australia

    Roughly 10/1


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,616 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I'm wondering if there's any value in Earls top try-scorer @33/1. He only played 50-odd minutes in the warm-ups and is missing the Scotland game so, if he recovers quickly enough, he's likely to see a lot of minutes in the next 3 games. Could see him running in a few against Russia. (Was hoping it'd be closer to 50/1)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,291 ✭✭✭All_in_Flynn


    aloooof wrote: »
    I'm wondering if there's any value in Earls top try-scorer @33/1. He only played 50-odd minutes in the warm-ups and is missing the Scotland game so, if he recovers quickly enough, he's likely to see a lot of minutes in the next 3 games. Could see him running in a few against Russia. (Was hoping it'd be closer to 50/1)

    Ye I think the price is a little short. Have you checked the market since team has been named? Would have expected it to drift a little given he’s not in the 23.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    Toe in water today with Russia -5.5 @ 4/5 in the first half.


    Saturday, All Blacks -6 EVS looks good.


    I'll hold off on Ireland/Scotland until weather forecast is more certain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 52 ✭✭Hoppy Jack


    Eire to exit at group stages 18/1 looks value


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Hoppy Jack wrote: »
    Eire to exit at group stages 18/1 looks value

    Lose to Scotland and Japan? Not for me.. better off backing them as singles anyway in both matches will work out better than 18s


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  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Hoppy Jack wrote: »
    Eire to exit at group stages 18/1 looks value

    lump on it then :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,800 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Looking at an SF foursome of New Zealand, South Africa, England and Wales at round 4/1 as my main bet.

    Couldn't get this so went with a NZ-SA final as main bet
    Also on Sexton top point scorer, England win/Farrell top point scorer and sundry small request-a-bets.


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    i went a bit mad this weekend:

    Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
    treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1
    japan -40 @ evens
    Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
    Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens
    japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
    earls top try scorer @ 33's


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,363 ✭✭✭✭Del.Monte


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    Toe in water today with Russia -5.5 @ 4/5 in the first half.


    Saturday, All Blacks -6 EVS looks good.


    I'll hold off on Ireland/Scotland until weather forecast is more certain.
    7-0 to Russia - after 6 mins.


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    i went a bit mad this weekend:

    Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
    treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1
    japan -40 @ evens
    Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
    Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens
    japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
    earls top try scorer @ 33's

    matsushima bet won before half time :D


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    7-0 to Russia - after 6 mins.

    your 0.5 was very valuable !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,399 ✭✭✭Miley Byrne


    Del.Monte wrote: »
    Toe in water today with Russia -5.5 @ 4/5 in the first half.

    .

    +5.5 surely?


  • Registered Users Posts: 296 ✭✭Leinstertomas


    France V Argentina- Try before 10 minutes @ 2/1
    Argentina try before 32 mins 30 secs @ 10/11

    ****e


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,226 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    Not gonna back it but Finn Russell looks a big price to be man of the match at 20-1, any shock is likely is to require an excellent performance from him.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,800 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Also on Sexton top point scorer.

    What are you doing to me Joe Schmidt?:mad:


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    i went a bit mad this weekend:

    Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
    treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1 :)
    japan -40 @ evens
    Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
    Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens :)
    japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
    earls top try scorer @ 33's

    The treble and the matsushima bet have me in decent profit.

    Funny that Ireland are gone from 10/1 to 7/1 immediately after that game.


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Taken Jonny may to score a try in the first ten minutes @9s.... For the craic


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    The treble and the matsushima bet have me in decent profit.

    Funny that Ireland are gone from 10/1 to 7/1 immediately after that game.

    I think that happened yesterday after nz beat sa and the draw became clearer as England had drifted yesterday too


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,795 ✭✭✭✭Pudsy33


    First bet of the WC, gonna take Georgia +28.5 vs the Welsh


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    youd currently get Australia +2 against wales


    at the rate at which Australia can score tries and as hard as Wales get to score tries, thats good value currently i think.
    the only thing that would really spin it strongly into wales favour is a wet rainy day... which is whats being forecasted.. but we're six days out for any secure forecast.


    ireland -56 against russia seems a bit over the top.
    only NZ versus canada is a higher spread in this years RWC so far.... and we dont get it as easy to score tries.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭franglan


    Pudsy33 wrote: »
    First bet of the WC, gonna take Georgia +28.5 vs the Welsh

    Sick. Took +36 myself, which didn't look to good for a while too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,795 ✭✭✭✭Pudsy33


    franglan wrote: »
    Sick. Took +36 myself, which didn't look to good for a while too.

    I'm surprised it was that close in the end given the first half!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,166 ✭✭✭✭Zzippy


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    ireland -56 against russia seems a bit over the top.
    only NZ versus canada is a higher spread in this years RWC so far.... and we dont get it as easy to score tries.


    A half-strength Connacht team put 42 points on Russia in Moscow 2 weeks ago. Although I think you're right that it seems over the top - the priority will be to get the bonus point secured then no injuries, so we may not go full gas to the end of the game.


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Zzippy wrote: »
    A half-strength Connacht team put 42 points on Russia in Moscow 2 weeks ago. Although I think you're right that it seems over the top - the priority will be to get the bonus point secured then no injuries, so we may not go full gas to the end of the game.

    yeah that would be my view... once the 4 try point is made... changes happen, game gets disrupted.... players minding themselves a bit....russia keep going for the pride points....


    the only spread bet that was clearly beat was ireland, who were -8 and won by 24

    Japan were -40, won by 20
    aus -17, won by 18
    england -45, won by 32
    italy -34, won by 25
    wales -29, won by 29

    and the close ones
    france -1, won by 2
    NZ -8, won by 10

    so on average the spread was negative 28, but positive 42.. which shows the underdogs did better than expected.

    the spreads have expanded on average for the next few rounds, and i think on average they are still to0 wide against the underdogs.

    (though i expect SA could put 80 on Namibia)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,047 ✭✭✭Bazzo


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    yeah that would be my view... once the 4 try point is made... changes happen, game gets disrupted.... players minding themselves a bit....russia keep going for the pride points....


    the only spread bet that was clearly beat was ireland, who were -8 and won by 24

    Japan were -40, won by 20
    aus -17, won by 18
    england -45, won by 32
    italy -34, won by 25
    wales -29, won by 29

    and the close ones
    france -1, won by 2
    NZ -8, won by 10

    so on average the spread was negative 28, but positive 42.. which shows the underdogs did better than expected.

    the spreads have expanded on average for the next few rounds, and i think on average they are still to0 wide against the underdogs.

    (though i expect SA could put 80 on Namibia)

    Aus beating their handicap by a point isn't a close one? :D


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  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Bazzo wrote: »
    Aus beating their handicap by a point isn't a close one? :D

    I meant close spread before the game.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Looking at cokanasinga for tries in the England game. With jj playing at 13 he is the ultimate creator in my eyes and cokanasinga won't be stopped 1v1.

    Cokanasinga 2 or more tries 7/4
    3 or more tries 6/1


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    where are you getting 7/4??

    PP is 5/6 for 2 tries


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,616 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    And bet fair is 10/11. 3 or more is 16/5.


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    Billy V

    First Try scorer(E/W)

    11/1

    PPs


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    ^ Yeah! :-)


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Rockbeast2 wrote: »
    ^ Yeah! :-)

    nice one

    What way is the EW bet split? is it quarter odds?


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    ^ E/W is quarter odds for try 1,2,or 3.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    where are you getting 7/4??

    PP is 5/6 for 2 tries

    Bit late getting back to you now but 365 had him 7/4 for 2. Pp is by far the worst for tryscorers value 365 much better and boyles you can also double anytimes with boyles


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,127 ✭✭✭The real mccoy 91


    Bit late getting back to you now but 365 had him 7/4 for 2. Pp is by far the worst for tryscorers value 365 much better and boyles you can also double anytimes with boyles

    Take the ireland game for example my tryscorer fancies atm with 0 research would be

    Stockdale 1/2(pp) 8/13(boyles) 4/6(365)
    2 or more 21/10(pp) 12/5(boyles) 3/1(365)

    Ringrose 6/4 across all 3
    2 or more 7/1(pp) 15/2(boyles) 10/1(365)

    Farrell 11/5(pp) 21/10(boyles) 5/2(365)
    2 or more 11/1(pp) 12/1(boyles) 20/1(365)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,226 ✭✭✭ClanofLams


    Gone for 13-1 weekend accum of

    Cheetahs
    Dragons +17
    Connacht
    Georgia -17

    All of Glasgow Munster and Scarlets missing double digit players at World Cup. Dragons beat Scarlets 34-17 in last pre season warmup, Dean Ryan taken over there could see some improvement.
    Connacht best Munster by 9, were 23 up before subs.

    Cheetahs made some good signings with new coach and won Currie cup and with Glasgow being weakened by World Cup can’t see them winning over there.

    Think the 4 day turn around and adrenalin dump will kill Uruguay, can see that being heavy loss.


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    ^ I forgot P14 is back!

    Must check squads and put on a few bets!


  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    My confidence has grown. I think the Japanese will have one eye on the Scotland (and Samoa) game... And may perhaps be minding themselves a bit.

    Ireland should be able to put in a TBP performance and keep the japs to about 10 points.

    Ireland -21 @evens


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    * I agree with sydthebeat's optimism.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭MikeCork2009


    Rockbeast2 wrote: »
    * I agree with sydthebeat's optimism.

    Me too. I bet Ireland yesterday -20 @10/11


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    -20 ?!

    Is that Ladsgobroke? I'm PPs.

    Every point makes a huge difference. 5%?


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    *10/11 vs Evens

    I will always take the wider spread where possible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭MikeCork2009


    Rockbeast2 wrote: »
    -20 ?!

    Is that Ladsgobroke? I'm PPs.

    Every point makes a huge difference. 5%?

    That was with Bet365. It was -22 @ evens


  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Rockbeast2


    I'm definitely going to open a couple new online accounts for quarters. +/-1 point is massive then.


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  • Subscribers Posts: 41,826 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    this weekend

    RWC

    ireland -21 @ evens
    ireland to win 31-40 @9/2
    1st tryscore L Mc Grath @16/1 e/w
    1st tryscorer R Best @ 12/1 e/w

    double SA -59, NZ -65 @ 7/2

    pro14

    Acca
    cheetahs -6
    treviso +14
    connacht +2
    ulster -13

    @12/1


    matt faddes anytime tryscorer @ 7/4


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