Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

MikeCork2009

I reckon it will be close in the first half.

5 units on Namibia (5.5) at Half-Time @ 7/5

thomasm

whatawaster81 wrote: »

Absolutely, Aus all the way, it's just a question for me of how big I go on it.

Might be a better option to back them at 15/8 to win group

Neil3030

Haven't decided yet but Aus to win by 1-12 against England (21/10) is tempting.

daramike

Naholo is 33/1 to be top try scorer great value. He has just being named in the NZ team to face Georgia who are reportedly putting out a 2nd string team. He should get a couple of tries at least. Hansen has good time for him as well and I wouldn't be surprised if he holds his place from here on in. Worth a bet at the price anyway.

daramike

NZ - 59 looks a good bet as well. They should beat Georgia by 70+. I know the underdogs have covered about 70% of caps but can't see it happening here.

sydthebeat

daramike wrote: »

NZ - 59 looks a good bet as well. They should beat Georgia by 70+. I know the underdogs have covered about 70% of caps but can't see it happening here.

gone out to -62 already and id say it will end up around -65

daramike

sydthebeat wrote: »

gone out to -62 already and id say it will end up around -65

Still -60 with Boyles if you can get on. It will go out to mid 60's alright

P.Walnuts

Anyone able to check if the over/unders line I'd up yet for Samoa v Japan? In work can't check, could go large on overs depending on the line

sydthebeat

naholo, first try scorer @ 6/1

naholo to score 2 or more @ 11 / 10

NZ wining margin 46 - 50 @ 9/1

Australia win @ 5/4

sydthebeat

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Anyone able to check if the over/unders line I'd up yet for Samoa v Japan? In work can't check, could go large on overs depending on the line

nothing yet on PP, they usually wait until they are sure of the weather conditions

matthew8

2 big positives for NZ are Carter starting (Quade Cooper's display against Uruguay shows just how critical the place kicker is to a large handicap) and Georgia are going to be significantly resting their best players.

thomond2006

Balance: 40.11 units

- 5 units (10/11) Wales -14

- 3 units (4/1) Julian Savea top tournament tryscorer - open bet

New Balance: 35.11 units

I really fancy Wales, no Nadolo and Matawalu is a big blow to Fiji.

MikeCork2009

Ireland -19 @ 10/11 v Italy is printing money. Bar the blip in 2013 we have beat them by an average of 31 points since 2011. By 32 and 39 points respectively when we played them in Dublin (London will be so Green on Sunday it might as well be Dublin) and by 30 points at the last WC.

Parisse aside (if he's fit), Italy have got nothing to worry us at the moment plus Ghraldini out is a big loss to them. They are 14th in the rankings, barely above the likes of Canada and Romania - just scraping past the former last weekend. Obviously no room for complacency but given that we need to go up through the gears before the match with France this should be a walk in the (Olympic) park. Handicap should be -30 at least!!

20 units on Ireland -19 @10/11

Neil3030

MikeCork2009 wrote: »

Ireland -19 @ 10/11 v Italy is printing money. Bar the blip in 2013 we have beat them by an average of 31 points since 2011. By 32 and 39 points respectively when we played them in Dublin (London will be so Green on Sunday it might as well be Dublin) and by 30 points at the last WC.

Parisse aside (if he's fit), Italy have got nothing to worry us at the moment plus Ghraldini out is a big loss to them. They are 14th in the rankings, barely above the likes of Canada and Romania - just scraping past the former last weekend. Obviously no room for complacency but given that we need to go up through the gears before the match with France this should be a walk in the (Olympic) park. Handicap should be -30 at least!!

20 units on Ireland -19 @10/11

When is the Italian team announced? Really all hinges on whether Parisse is back for me. If he is still out I will probably jump on this.

MikeCork2009

Neil3030 wrote: »

When is the Italian team announced? Really all hinges on whether Parisse is back for me. If he is still out I will probably jump on this.

Not sure. I've jumped on already. Can only see the handicap increasing between now and Sunday. Parisse is a great player but I don't see him making a difference on Sunday even if he does play. He hasn’t been training for three weeks and will now be trying to play a massive match on Sunday. Its a big ask, even for say 60 minutes. For what it's worth, personally I don't think he will play. Him just being back in the squad and in contention to play again is a moral boost for Italy, which they needed. I really do expect Ireland to make a statement on Sunday and put away a pretty average Italy quite convincingly.

My prediction Ireland 47 - 9 Italy

sydthebeat

daramike wrote: »

NZ - 59 looks a good bet as well. They should beat Georgia by 70+. I know the underdogs have covered about 70% of caps but can't see it happening here.

this is gone out to -65 already... so your -59 is looking quite valuable right now

Neil3030

Warburton try in 80 mins, 2.5 units @ 11/2 on betfair sportsbook.

sydthebeat

Neil3030 wrote: »

Warburton try in 80 mins, 2.5 units @ 11/2 on betfair sportsbook.

4 tries in 59 games .......

i think wales prefer the hooker to take the ball at the back of a maul, so perhaps baldwin would be worth a punt is you can get the same odds.

thomond2006

sydthebeat wrote: »

this is gone out to -65 already... so your -59 is looking quite valuable right now

I know Argentina eventually laid waste to Georgia but I think Georgia will cover +65.

MikeCork2009

sydthebeat wrote: »

4 tries in 59 games .......

i think wales prefer the hooker to take the ball at the back of a maul, so perhaps baldwin would be worth a punt is you can get the same odds.

Baldwin is 9/2 for an anytime try with PP

MikeCork2009

thomond2006 wrote: »

I know Argentina eventually laid waste to Georgia but I think Georgia will cover +65.

Yes, but Georgia are putting out effectively 2nd string and staying fresh for Namabia. I reckon NZ will run riot.

thomond2006

MikeCork2009 wrote: »

Yes, but Georgia are putting out effectively 2nd string and staying fresh for Namabia. I reckon NZ will run riot.

Ah I wasn't aware of that. Fair enough.

MikeCork2009

http://www.skysports.com/rugby-union/news/22068/10012220/georgia-rest-key-players-for-new-zealand-clash

Neil3030

thomond2006 wrote: »

I know Argentina eventually laid waste to Georgia but I think Georgia will cover +65.

3 Argentinian tries while Mamuka Gorgodze was in the bin massively skewed that result to be fair.

MikeCork2009

I've bet NZ -65. I'm hopeful they will cover it but after getting burnt by their inability to cover the handicap v Namibia I'm not 100% confident. Carter is playing though so he could make a big difference.

Neil3030

There are still more than 350 combined caps in that Georgian pack, and more importantly, there is still a Mamuka Gorgodze in that Georgian pack..... hmmmmm.....

sydthebeat

nakarawa anytime try scorer @ 17/2

thelad95

I'm getting evens on NZ beating the handicap, surely too good to be true?

sydthebeat

thelad95 wrote: »

I'm getting evens on NZ beating the handicap, surely too good to be true?

what handicap? -65?

if so, no not really, flip of a coin job.

skippymac6

Was leaning towards Fiji tonight at +15 but the loss of Nadolo is a massive one. Best player, best tryscorer and kicker. The Wesh have named their strongest squad, at home and even though they will be hurting from Saturday, they have 9 days after this one to prepare for the Wallabies so they will be all out to get the BP that the Aussies couldn't manage against the same opposition.