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100 Bets to Broke Flat Season

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,285 ✭✭✭Oscars Well.


    Once again, like Hillstar, Telescope is over rated. Knackers yard. The amount of hype the latter had two years ago,Jeez

    Ehh how many horses fulfill their potential after missing their entire 3 year old season...?

    A rare poor ride from Moore there


  • Registered Users Posts: 74 ✭✭sporter1


    Thanks aidan


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 679 ✭✭✭Lt J.R. Bell


    Ehh how many horses fulfill their potential after missing their entire 3 year old season...?

    A rare poor ride from Moore there

    Entire 3 year old season,? don't think so.he ran a few but not the main ones due to the set back. Perfectly possible a half decent 3 year old can come out and do better as an older horse. I am not as critical about today's race,first time out. Last though, come on... Noble Mission destroyed him twice last year


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Newmarket 3:00

    Stakes will be low in these print handicaps this year but I’ll still have to put up a few at huge prices in case of the bomb dropping at some stage.

    Swiss Cross looks to be improving again after a decent run last time and is down to his last winning mark. That win has worked out well and shows he is capable of running a big race in a big handicap at some stage soon. 50/1 with 5 places on Bet365 is worth a small gamble.

    ½ Point EW 50/1 5 places Bet365


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    3:10 Chester Cup

    This looks a tough race which is to be expected. I’m going to have to with a bit of a no no here in that my selection Mubaraza is drawn wide. In reality that shouldn’t make much of a difference here once he can get some kind of position early. He really was good at the start of last year and showed signs of a return to form on his seasonal reappearance this year as well. He was 4th in this last year of the same mark and I feel he can bridge the gap here with some of those ahead of him a lot higher in the weights. 14/1 looks the best value on offer at the moment.

    1 Point win 14/1 Generally.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    3:45 Ascot

    I love these big field Ascot Handicaps, and this looks like a typical minefield tomorrow. A couple stick out for me at big prices. Professor is certainly capable of this mark judging by his run last year in the Wokingham of a higher mark. He came back to form last time out when second to Emell and is still 6 lbs lower than that Wokingham run. I thought he would be shorter here that 25/1 so that looks value. Hawkeyethenoo also caught the eye a bit in the same race and he is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. I think he will out run his 40/1 odds.

    1 Point EW Professor 25/1 5 places Various
    1 Point EW Hawkeyethenoo 40/1 5 places Various


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,377 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    aidankkk wrote: »
    3:45 Ascot

    I love these big field Ascot Handicaps, and this looks like a typical minefield tomorrow. A couple stick out for me at big prices. Professor is certainly capable of this mark judging by his run last year in the Wokingham of a higher mark. He came back to form last time out when second to Emell and is still 6 lbs lower than that Wokingham run. I thought he would be shorter here that 25/1 so that looks value. Hawkeyethenoo also caught the eye a bit in the same race and he is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. I think he will out run his 40/1 odds.

    1 Point EW Professor 25/1 5 places Various
    1 Point EW Hawkeyethenoo 40/1 5 places Various
    Hawkeyethenoo is the one that caught my eye as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    Hawkeyethenoo is the one that caught my eye as well.

    Mee too think the 40s is huge


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Haydock 2:00

    Rebellious Guest has been in good form on the all-weather lately and if he can stay this trip , which has looked likely on a few occasions ,he might outrun his big price here. His 3rd in the Roseberry when staying on over 11 furlongs give him a decent shout here if he can transfer that to turf. He’s worth the risk at a big looking 25/1 from a trainer who likes to have winners here.

    1 Point win 25/1 Various


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Lingfield 3:30

    Burano
    was backed last time and although he didn’t finish out his race that well, he is just back down to his winning turf mark and I would be at all surprised if he showed up well here. The slightly softer ground should help. This race looks a weak enough affair.

    1 Point win 16/1 Bet365/Sporting/Coral


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    I see professor a NR


  • Registered Users Posts: 449 ✭✭hawkhead


    Great stuff again. Amanda Perrett has her string in fine fettle at the minute


  • Registered Users Posts: 407 ✭✭razorhead


    Excellent stuff again Aidan, well done


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,821 ✭✭✭✭ShaneU


    aidankkk wrote: »
    3:45 Ascot

    I love these big field Ascot Handicaps, and this looks like a typical minefield tomorrow. A couple stick out for me at big prices. Professor is certainly capable of this mark judging by his run last year in the Wokingham of a higher mark. He came back to form last time out when second to Emell and is still 6 lbs lower than that Wokingham run. I thought he would be shorter here that 25/1 so that looks value. Hawkeyethenoo also caught the eye a bit in the same race and he is in here of a very low mark with a 7lbs claimer on. I think he will out run his 40/1 odds.

    1 Point EW Professor 25/1 5 places Various
    1 Point EW Hawkeyethenoo 40/1 5 places Various

    Hawkeyethenoo 3rd


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 913 ✭✭✭tomaussie


    ShaneU wrote: »
    Hawkeyethenoo 3rd

    Was unlucky-ish in running too.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 17 El Canelo


    Thanks Aidan had Burano and Hawkeye e/w.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Leopardstown 3:40

    I think there is a bit of underestimating here in the AOB second String Cradle Mountain. Order of St George is the first string but he hasn’t run yet this year which is a complete no no for that stable. Cradle Mountain beat what looks a good yardstick last time out and although he will lose the 7lbs claim on in this race he is no 20/1 shot.

    1 Point win 20/1 Various


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,340 ✭✭✭sdoc13


    Super stuff today Aidan. Had a profitable day thanks to you. This thread has kept going where the other one left off.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Summer Jumps will be in this tread as the other one is finished

    Killarney 8:10

    Sebadee
    is one that did me a few favours in the past. He is underestimated here and this trip ground and course are all in his favour. He travelled well in the big Hunter Chase at Punchestown before fading late over too far. He has a good record around here at 25/1 is too big.

    1 Point EW 25/1 Bet365


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    York 2:10

    Indy
    looks one of the most unexposed in this field and there was plenty to like about his seasonal reappearance until he ran out of steam which is probably understandable. His 3yo form is also very good and if he can move on from his seasonal debut here when a bit fitter he can get involved at a big looking 20/1. I’m also going to have a tiny bet at a huge price on Sir Jack Layden . He was a very good 2yo and perhaps suffered for his Meyden trip as a 3yo. He can also improve for his seasonal reappearance here at a big price.

    1 Point win Indy 20/1 Various
    ½ Point win Sir Jack Layden 50/1 Various

    York 2:40

    Blaine
    has an excellent course record to say the least with 3 wins around here. He was poor last time but that can be ignored with sprinting as poor runs are regular in these races. A mark of 100 in well within his grasp judging by his runs last year and 25/1 with 5 places looks huge.

    1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Paddy Power

    York 3:15

    Caspar Netscher
    has been running well the last year or so at the highest level and on his day is well capable of winning this race. The race terms aren’t the best for him but he looks a good few points too big at 25/1. Also I think Gathering Power may be an improver this year judging by what I saw last year and on her reappearance. I don’t think the ground will be in her favour here but at 33/1 ill have a min bet just in case as she was my original selection and changing minds leads to frustration.

    1 Point win Caspar Netscher 25/1 Various
    ½ Point win Gathering Power 33/1 VArious


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  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭magicmoves


    Backed Blaine and Gathering Power. Not sure if the ground will suite Indy


  • Registered Users Posts: 795 ✭✭✭FLOOPER


    Thanks again Aidan. Had Casper Netscher ew so up today as was last weekend thanks to you. You make horse racing €un €un €un 😀😀😀


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,394 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    FLOOPER wrote: »
    Thanks again Aidan. Had Casper Netscher ew so up today as was last weekend thanks to you. You make horse racing €un €un €un 😀😀😀

    Are there many bookies paying out 4 places in that race?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    kippy wrote: »
    Are there many bookies paying out 4 places in that race?

    Paddy Power and Skybet, unfortunately i didnt know that when i put the bet up as id have taken advantage of that extra place.:mad:..


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,394 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Paddy Power and Skybet, unfortunately i didnt know that when i put the bet up as id have taken advantage of that extra place.:mad:..

    Thanks and thanks for the thread. Some great tips on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    York 5:20


    Have to put up a last minute selection here that i forgot to post last night, and just realized it. I think Icon Dream could wel improve from his seasonal reappearance and has some decent form on good ground. He is of a workable mark and ill have to have a small min gamble at a huge 66/1


    1/2 Point EW 66/1 Various


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    Aintree 7:05

    Sea Lord
    looks to have found a very decent opportunity here. He climbed the ladder very fast 2 years ago winning a series of summer good ground handicaps. His run this year in the Scottish County hurdle reads well enough as well as he looks to have been up against a couple of well handicapped horses there. He’s had a break and should be fitter after his last run about 3 weeks ago. The flat track 2m4f here should be right up his street, and 12/1 looks value. That said I think I will avoid the knockout handicap snip in waiting here Virgilio. On his day Sea Lord wouldn’t have anything to fear from the rest of there and 9/1 without the FAV here looks the bet to make.

    1 Point win 9/1 Without Fav Betfair Sportsbook


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 679 ✭✭✭Lt J.R. Bell


    Anyone see the flat race at Newbury or Newmarket

    Geogre Baker was ridding a Jamie Osborne trained horse owned by Rich Ricci. Bad start but did very very well to claim 3rd. 25/1 shot.

    Might be worth keeping an eye on in the future. Decent run for a maiden


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭longshotvalue


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Aintree 7:05

    Sea Lord
    looks to have found a very decent opportunity here. He climbed the ladder very fast 2 years ago winning a series of summer good ground handicaps. His run this year in the Scottish County hurdle reads well enough as well as he looks to have been up against a couple of well handicapped horses there. He’s had a break and should be fitter after his last run about 3 weeks ago. The flat track 2m4f here should be right up his street, and 12/1 looks value. That said I think I will avoid the knockout handicap snip in waiting here Virgilio. On his day Sea Lord wouldn’t have anything to fear from the rest of there and 9/1 without the FAV here looks the bet to make.

    1 Point win 9/1 Without Fav Betfair Sportsbook


    Lovely Great run :D:D:D:D:D:D:D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,441 ✭✭✭Heroditas


    aidankkk wrote: »
    Lovely Great run :D:D:D:D:D:D:D

    Urgh, missed it! :(


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