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09-11-2019, 03:14   #121
hatrickpatrick
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Tonight's ECM 12z is very interesting to say the least, both in terms of the Europe charts and the Northern Hemisphere. Very broken down and disrupted compared to recent Novembers. You can really see heights trying to extend from the mid latitudes into the pole, from several angles. Heights pushing northward both from the Northeast Pacific off Alaska, the Atlantic centred on Iceland, and east of Scandi.

Still nothing concrete, but this all begins to evolve at 120h so it's just coming into the reliable timeframe. The GFS 18z is nowhere near as bullish, showing the polar vortex holding its own against these multi-pronged attacks, but the UKMO while only having glimpsing FI in its timeframes, also seems to be on board.

Potentially very interesting week of model watching ahead!
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09-11-2019, 04:23   #122
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Wednesday showing more white gold promise this morning with that low pressure to the northwest sliding in to cold air over the country.

One to watch.
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09-11-2019, 10:49   #123
Meteorite58
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Trending on the cool side.



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09-11-2019, 14:23   #124
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Trending milder again. Definitely would think by late November mild muck will return. Mid month looks transitional after a brief colder interlude
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Yesterday, 04:43   #125
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Last edited by Kermit.de.frog; Yesterday at 04:48.
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Yesterday, 09:26   #126
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haha!

A bit of an outlier, look at the control run compared to the operational run!

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Yesterday, 10:20   #127
pauldry
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Whats the difference between a control run and an operational run? Which is the most valid?
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Yesterday, 10:53   #128
MJohnston
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Whats the difference between a control run and an operational run? Which is the most valid?
Control = low res run with initial conditions matching current data
Ensemble = multiple low res runs with initial conditions slightly modified from current data
Op = highest res run with initial conditions matching current data.

The control run is there to signify whether any ensemble variations are due to the initial conditions being different, or the resolution being different.

In other words, if the Control varies from the Op, then that means the model resolution had an effect on the outcomes, which means less reliability can be asserted in any ensemble outcomes.
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Yesterday, 11:16   #129
pauldry
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You lost me on Control =....

All I really need to know is is that control line signifying mild more reliable than the operational signifying cold?
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Yesterday, 11:55   #130
MJohnston
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Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
You lost me on Control =....

All I really need to know is is that control line signifying mild more reliable than the operational signifying cold?
No. The operational is the more "reliable" one as a very generalised rule of thumb.
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Yesterday, 13:03   #131
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I think the general trend is still for a milder end to November, these change day by day but it is certainly looking more realistic that we will be going into a milder phase for the last 10 days of the month.

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Yesterday, 21:01   #132
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ECM keeping it cold out to +240 hrs and showing some very cold charts early days of next week with widespread sharp frosts, see 2m -5.0C / -6.0C temps showing up for next Tues and Weds mornings in the NW with some very low day time temps also. Of course far off and changes could happen .






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