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Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

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Comments

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    #422
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM is intriguing for Thurs / Fri . Huge uncertainty . The Significant Weather map shows the potentially different types precipitation well for Thurs that is being currently modeled.

    The track of the LP system has tracked more S over the last couple of days bringing the heavy band of moisture over the S of the country. The ECM is currently showing the low pivot and giving moderate snow in the SW for about 7 to 9 hrs and also large amounts over the rest of the S of the country.


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    #423
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECMWF ENS output suggests the operational run is one of the most southerly in track....therefore treat with caution the current operational run... the precipitation is likely to track further north than shown.
    ENS for Dublin


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    #424
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Can compare these predictions with tomorrows run. I remember looking at the Snow prediction charts for the Beast and could hardly believe them as they were so foreign to Ireland, have the same feeling with this.

    A way to go yet. Tomorrow will bring more clarity.


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    #425
    irishfeen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    Meteorite58, when is the next update to that model?


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    #426
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    irishfeen wrote: »
    Meteorite58, when is the next update to that model?

    Will be out early tomorrow morning around 06.00.


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    #427
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Anyone in North Dublin very happy with the charts so far, put your hands up.

    dm9wl2.gif


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    #428
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Anyone in North Dublin very happy charts so far,, put your hands up.

    dm9wl2.gif

    A north dubliner myself, even Kermit himself will be looking on in distraught


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    #429
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The Low Pressure Thurs

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    Freezing level

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    #430
    Billcarson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,506 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    ZX7R wrote: »
    John.Icy wrote: »
    Mad the difference between here and Netweather over Thurs/Fri potential. I don't see a huge amount of different in the forecast airmass between here or the UK, but they are the ones very confident of snow. If anything on the ECM we have better conditions, better uppers, better dew points looking @aperge. More to snow than that but I trust others word on here when they say it looks marginal.

    The infamous Steve Murr just called for up to 30cm in the SE of Ireland based on the ECM.

    Are we underplaying the potential or are they completely overplaying?
    Bit of both net weather always over play things, in general more reserved here


    On the net weather model output thread the last few days they really have being looking at every model run to the death as regards snow potential this week. Like jesus Christ its going to be a nowcast situation anyway. You would swear their lives depended upon it or something. Ive always been interested in the weather and i would love good snowfall but for the love of god. What will be will be .


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    #431
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 16,720 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    guil wrote: »
    I'm working up around Kilteel/Eadestown first thing in the morning, into Blessington and then Ballymore Eustace later in the day, hopefully I get something to look at lol.

    Am in Blessington (200m asl) so I'll be checking the lampposts tonight.


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    #432
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,818 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Will need to watch the wind potential also on Thurs :)

    Could be seeing a plethora of warnings yet.

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    #433
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,506 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1089979914667864065

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #434
    guil
    Registered Users Posts: 10,475 ✭✭✭✭guil


    Dónal wrote: »
    Am in Blessington (200m asl) so I'll be checking the lampposts tonight.
    Stick on the kettle about 6am and I'll stop for a chat haha.


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    #435
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I'm very surprised how laid back Met Eireann are about tomorrow and Wednesday. Maybe because the East is least at risk...
    Widespread snow showers tomorrow for the South and West with even a risk of a polar low and trough early Wed morning.
    As for Thursday I think for Cork the wind being onshore or not will be important. Likely be a mix of rain and snow before the low pivots and swings the wind offshore...then snow!!


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    #436
    irishfeen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    Met Office giving some prolonged bands of snow/sleet pushing over Ireland tomorrow and Wednesday, interesting days ahead! :)

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    #437
    mumo3
    Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭mumo3


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Will need to watch the wind potential also on Thurs :)

    Could be seeing a plethora of warnings yet.

    Doesn't get more exciting than a plethora of warnings, but do I dare get excited? And let me take this opportunity to thank all the posters in what has become my snow bible


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    #438
    Reckless Abandonment
    Registered Users Posts: 1,493 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Do I have time to change my lamppost to LEDs , I hear it makes nicer snow ??


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    #439
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Time to draw the curtain on this thread! See ya all next week!


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    #440
    Dakotabigone
    Site Banned Posts: 512 ✭✭✭Dakotabigone


    Are the models bad?


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    #441
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    PROB30 TEMPO 2907/2910 3000 -RASN BKN006

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    #442
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I can just see the mayhem on Thursday here in Dublin with this snow. Airport closed, M50 meltdown..... bring it on!!!!

    D


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    #443
    irishfeen
    Registered Users Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    MeteoGroup via the BBC website is showing the front pushing up across Ireland on Thursday as rain into Cork city and the south west coast but very soon after turning to Snow into North Cork.

    Very early days and a betting man would say it will be sleet or rain but if it becomes a reality Met Eireann might have to look at the Yellow Warning and increase for southern and midland counties.


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    #444
    mumo3
    Registered Users Posts: 1,766 ✭✭✭mumo3


    derekon wrote: »
    I can just see the mayhem on Thursday here in Dublin with this snow. Airport closed, M50 meltdown..... bring it on!!!!

    D
    Dont get me excited


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    #445
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,132 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Dakotabigone wrote: »
    Are the models bad?

    Do not think so. Looks pretty samey since yesterday, at least for the next 48 hours anyway. Slushy mess followed by some snow showers inland and N/NW, some possibly stretching across the country (unlikely to stick)


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    #446
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    derekon wrote: »
    I can just see the mayhem on Thursday here in Dublin with this snow. Airport closed, M50 meltdown..... bring it on!!!!

    D

    It's going to be rain though, sleet at best.


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    #447
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    It's going to be rain though, sleet at best.

    A slushy mess? This winter just gets better and better........

    D


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    #448
    BlackandGreen
    Closed Accounts Posts: 310 ✭✭BlackandGreen


    Think of the nurses on the picket lines. :(


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    #449
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    I'm very surprised how laid back Met Eireann are about tomorrow and Wednesday. Maybe because the East is least at risk...
    Widespread snow showers tomorrow for the South and West with even a risk of a polar low and trough early Wed morning.
    As for Thursday I think for Cork the wind being onshore or not will be important. Likely be a mix of rain and snow before the low pivots and swings the wind offshore...then snow!!

    I would not say there laid back ,they definitely won't issue higher or more warnings about Thursday till at least 48 hours before hand the track of the low still not nailed down yet.
    The last few runs have the low tracking more southerly tonight it's seems further north a bit.
    As for tonight/tomorrow morning it really is a now cast


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    #450
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The icon is an upgrade for Thursday. Impossible to call correctly....will be a nightmare for Met Eireann where sees snow or rain.


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    #451
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,116 ✭✭✭pad199207


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    The icon is an upgrade for Thursday. Impossible to call correctly....will be a nightmare for Met Eireann where sees snow or rain.

    I would risk it by saying follow the ICON for Thursday. It modeled Storm Emma fairly accurately.


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