Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

munsterlegend

pad199207 wrote: »

I would risk it by saying follow the ICON for Thursday. It modeled Storm Emma fairly accurately.

I’d be waiting for Wednesday to see what track this takes. So many changes.

highdef

It's still rolling out and to me it does not look like an upgrade. Can you give more detail to the upgrade please?

irishfeen

Has their been an update on this ICON? this looks very bad for us.

YanSno

Icon still updating 18z you probably looking at 12z. The way it's rolling out precipitation seems light and the LP doesn't go further north

Snowbiee21

irishfeen wrote: »

Has their been an update on this ICON? this looks very bad for us.

Lol

Hurricane Flew

Calm down people's

1. If it doesn't snow it might be rain
2. If it doesn't rain it could be snow
3. It might be sleet either
4. Or that horrible slush puppy style mush on the ground that so close to snow but doesn't quite make it

This is Ireland and no guarantees on snow here until it's actually falling from the sky.

JanuarySnowstor

Met Eireann forecast on tv hugely inaccurate comparing with models.....tomorrow will tell but a risk of this and that???? Sorry but anything after lunch tomorrow will be white!!

SleetAndSnow

irishfeen wrote: »

MeteoGroup via the BBC website is showing the front pushing up across Ireland on Thursday as rain into Cork city and the south west coast but very soon after turning to Snow into North Cork.

Very early days and a betting man would say it will be sleet or rain but if it becomes a reality Met Eireann might have to look at the Yellow Warning and increase for southern and midland counties.

Ah no! We want it to turn so snow on the edge of Cork City! Gah *joking nature will be nature *

Also cue all the Cork people coming to talk about the snow shield Its just geographical location people!

Mortelaro

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast on tv hugely inaccurate comparing with models.....tomorrow will tell but a risk of this and that???? Sorry but anything after lunch tomorrow will be white!!

To be fair subtle changes could all but wipe out snow depending on the track and angle of the low
We are not in the type of air mass that made storm Emma certain to be snow

That said the dam on the latest ECM does suggest conducive to snow making it from cloud to sea level
But that air might get mixed out
So Joanna said as much as could be said,in my opinion

ninebeanrows

Could be a surprise tomorrow morning for a few - seems to be a trend to increase intensity of that cold front and more chance of some snowfall

KingdomRushed

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Met Eireann forecast on tv hugely inaccurate comparing with models.....tomorrow will tell but a risk of this and that???? Sorry but anything after lunch tomorrow will be white!!

To be fair to met.ie at least when it comes to snow, where they call something at odds with the models we see, I would say 9/10 times they are correct. This is a very marginal set up.

SleetAndSnow

I think this is why its not been called, I would say at the earliest tomorrow we will hear stuff. Low has moved now on the latest ICON which seems to change some things with regards to snow and the front seems to be weaker in general, its still very much a run to run thing even at 72hrs. Its very much going to be a nowcast situation I think.

esposito

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I think this is why its not been called, I would say at the earliest tomorrow we will hear stuff. Low has moved now on the latest ICON which seems to change some things with regards to snow and the front seems to be weaker in general, its still very much a run to run thing even at 72hrs. Its very much going to be a nowcast situation I think.

Let’s not take the ICON as gospel. Yes, it was good for last years storm Emma but there are plenty of other models to be analysed too. It’s fallible, just like the other models

SleetAndSnow

esposito wrote: »

Let’s not take the ICON as gospel. Yes, it was good for last years storm Emma but there are plenty of other models to be analysed too. It’s not fallible, just like the other models

Yes but it is showing that the models are still figuring stuff out if they aren't agreeing at 72hrs yet. It will be interesting too see what the GFS 18z says but the ECM seemed to be very good earlier, which is what most people will be waiting for come 0z. Was just saying this may be the reason for Met Eireann being cautious as they should be considering the major 'hype' that happens otherwise.

Monkeynut

The graph chart sryanbruen made with all the model output times. Does anybody have a link to it?

uck51js9zml2yt

BlackandGreen wrote: »

Think of the nurses on the picket lines.

Might make them reconsider a strike;)

Kermit.de.frog

Precipitation gathering now in the west as that cold front tonight getting it's act in gear.

As mentioned above could see some snow in the morning from that in Leinster and Munster as it clears.

Nowcast.

sryanbruen

Monkeynut wrote: »

The graph chart sryanbruen made with all the model times. Does anybody have a link to it?

I didn't make it. MJohnston did but here's the thread to it: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057916846

It's certainly a marvelous piece of work.

Bio Mech

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Time to draw the curtain on this thread! See ya all next week!

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Could be a surprise tomorrow morning for a few - seems to be a trend to increase intensity of that cold front and more chance of some snowfall

You almost stayed away for a whole hour. Good effort.

Monkeynut

sryanbruen wrote: »

I didn't make it. MJohnston did but here's the thread to it: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057916846

It's certainly a marvelous piece of work.

My apologies MJohnston. Thank you very much.

PS thanks for the link.

Snowbiee21

Light snow, Omagh

ZX7R

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

I think this is why its not been called, I would say at the earliest tomorrow we will hear stuff. Low has moved now on the latest ICON which seems to change some things with regards to snow and the front seems to be weaker in general, its still very much a run to run thing even at 72hrs. Its very much going to be a nowcast situation I think.

What is the Hirlam model saying as met eireann use there own model based on it for there rain fall ect might indicate the way they are going with there forecast

derekon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Precipitation gathering now in the west as that cold front tonight getting it's act in gear.

As mentioned above could see some snow in the morning from that in Leinster and Munster as it clears.

Nowcast.

Hi Kermit,

Thursday looking like a non event for Dublin?

D

SleetAndSnow

ZX7R wrote: »

What is the Hirlam model saying as met eireann use there own model based on it for there rain fall ect might indicate the way they are going with there forecast

Showing light snow in the west from about 10am Tuesday, it doesn't go to Thursday however.

Kermit.de.frog

Berties_Horse wrote: »

Strictly at altitude, unless one is residing in the north & northwest.

Altitude always helps.

ZX7R

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Showing light snow in the west from about 10am Tuesday, it doesn't go to Thursday however.

Similar to there forecast

Kermit.de.frog

derekon wrote: »

Hi Kermit,

Thursday looking like a non event for Dublin?

D

Impossible to be certain at this stage. Right on the coast probably on the wrong side of marginal with rain/sleet more likely but get any way inland and it's a different story.

Depends on the northerly extent of the precipitation but also from a Dublin point of view the strength of the onshore breeze will be critical.

Southdubin6

Lads I don’t understand all this but any snow expected in dublin?

ZX7R

Southdubin6 wrote: »

Lads I don’t understand all this but any snow expected in dublin?

A few flakes if you look outside at the right time

derekon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Impossible to be certain at this stage. Right on the coast probably on the wrong side of marginal with rain/sleet more likely but get any way inland and it's a different story.

Depends on the northerly extent of the precipitation but also from a Dublin point of view the strength of the onshore breeze will be critical.

OK cheers if I was a betting man, it will all go tits up , that's the case most of the time for snow in Ireland
Definite would be great for a change instead of maybe or that dreaded word marginal!!!!!

D