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Ireland Team Talk XI: Team of nervoUS MOD warning Post 1

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    #4292
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,097 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    theVersatile wrote: »
    So you could easily look up CJ Standers carry stats yet continue to turn a blind eye and disagree with opposing points because they haven't been landed on your lap?
    If you make a statement about a metric without any valid data, I'm not going to prove it for you if you can't be arsed yourself. I'll just assume you made it up. Since (as you now know) those stats are freely available.


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    #4293
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,021 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Stander:
    149 carries, 257m made, 617 mins played, 14 defenders beaten
    Works out at 1.72m per carry or 0.41m per minute

    Doris:
    117 carries, 406m made, 743 mins played, 31 defenders beaten
    3.47m per carry (that's twice Stander) or 0.55m per minute


    The stats categorically do not say Stander is a better carrier this season. I can't see any way to interpret them so, other than he's made more carries.

    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    If you think I’m gonna waste my time posting a link to prove something that everyone (whose head isn’t in the blue sand box) who watches rugby knows you will be waiting.

    Stander is head and shoulders above anyone else to start at 8 in the 6 nations.

    Sounds a lot like bias here lawrence. You've just completely made this stuff about carries up.


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    #4294
    theVersatile
    Registered Users Posts: 1,922 ✭✭✭theVersatile


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    If you make a statement about a metric without any valid data, I'm not going to prove it for you if you can't be arsed yourself. I'll just assume you made it up. Since (as you now know) those stats are freely available.

    Seems like a fairly ignorant way of going about things. For what it's worth for the other guys argument CJ is the highest carrier in the CC this season with 118 (22 ahead of Coetzee in 2nd), the second highest tackler with 88 (10 behind JVDF).

    The fact that that website only shows the top six is slightly irritating. My comment about the difficulty of obtaining stats generally aimed at complete stat lists ranked by player individually (being able to see exactly how CJ has done this year in terms of metres, carries and down to the more obscure stuff such as passes, ruck hits (with regard to effectiveness and time of arrival - these are the things I'd love to see for POM before writing him off completely ), etc. I've used the Pro14 stats packs in the past debating on here.


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    #4295
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Stander's unseen yards are much higher than Doris' though. If you include those, Standar's stats are presumably better.


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    #4296
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,097 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    theVersatile wrote: »
    Seems like a fairly ignorant way of going about things. For what it's worth for the other guys argument CJ is the highest carrier in the CC this season with 118 (22 ahead of Coetzee in 2nd), the second highest tackler with 88 (10 behind JVDF).
    You must be new here. Because posters throwing out unsupported 'stats' or 'facts' is a constant on here and other boards forums. So maybe it seems ignorant, but how ignorant is it to make a so-called statement of fact, based on nothing and expect to win an argument with it? And then get aggressive when called on it.

    If you want more stats, you can go on the ESPN website, but you'll have to compile them yourself from individual matches.

    Also, I would be more impressed with metres per carry than just raw carry stats. You can carry for 0 metres all day long and have great carry stats. How useful are you really?


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    #4297
    theVersatile
    Registered Users Posts: 1,922 ✭✭✭theVersatile


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    You must be new here. Because posters throwing out unsupported 'stats' or 'facts' is a constant on here and other boards forums. So maybe it seems ignorant, but how ignorant is it to make a so-called statement of fact, based on nothing and expect to win an argument with it? And then get aggressive when called on it.

    Indeed, I am new here. Guess I have lots of debate to look forward to.


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    #4298
    fitz
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭fitz


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    The stats categorically do not say Stander is a better carrier this season. I can't see any way to interpret them so, other than he's made more carries.

    More carries, and beaten less than half the number of defenders doing so. It's almost as if those carries weren't as effective...


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    #4299
    theVersatile
    Registered Users Posts: 1,922 ✭✭✭theVersatile


    fitz wrote: »
    More carries, and beaten less than half the number of defenders doing so. It's almost as if those carries weren't as effective...

    Or its almost as if Stander is a marked ball carrier wihh a reputation consistently targeted with two man hits - not a relatively new player on the scene with limited footage to analyse on video compared to Stander.

    Or its almost as if Leinster are a team with far more go forward momentum than Munster do and create more gaps as a result. It's easier to go forward when the team is charging towards the tryline at a rate of knots.

    Or its almost as if they are two players directed to do different objectives individually and deployed differently by their teams e.g find space in the tram lines out wide vs get us a dominant platform with a carry from an edge ruck where the whole d-line is set.

    Or maybe players have different qualities which they utilise in different ways (standards brute strength in close quarters compared to Doris burst of acceleration when playing off 10 or wider).

    Or perhaps it is a carrying technique issue. (CJ does tend to carry upright when playing off nine and lead with his forearms, only getting lower for those drives close to the line.)

    This list of hypothetical reasons for statistical differences goes on and on. There may also be multiple reasons - a combination of the above or other points, as opposed to just the one.

    I'm not saying your POV is wrong - I'd just like to highlight how there is more than one way to skin a cat.


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    #4300
    stephen_n
    Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    theVersatile wrote: »
    Or its almost as if Stander is a marked ball carrier wihh a reputation consistently targeted with two man hits - not a relatively new player on the scene with limited footage to analyse on video compared to Stander.

    Or its almost as if Leinster are a team with far more go forward momentum than Munster do and create more gaps as a result. It's easier to go forward when the team is charging towards the tryline at a rate of knots.

    Or its almost as if they are two players directed to do different objectives individually and deployed differently by their teams e.g find space in the tram lines out wide vs get us a dominant platform with a carry from an edge ruck where the whole d-line is set.

    Or maybe players have different qualities which they utilise in different ways (standards brute strength in close quarters compared to Doris burst of acceleration when playing off 10 or wider).

    Or perhaps it is a carrying technique issue. (CJ does tend to carry upright when playing off nine and lead with his forearms, only getting lower for those drives close to the line.)

    This list of hypothetical reasons for statistical differences goes on and on. There may also be multiple reasons - a combination of the above or other points, as opposed to just the one.

    I'm not saying your POV is wrong - I'd just like to highlight how there is more than one way to skin a cat.
    Or he runs in a straight line at the nearest opposition player, they’ve analysed his game and know that he rarely offloads or passes, so it’s an easy tackle to make. Lose a couple of yards and try slow the ball down.


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    #4301
    fitz
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 7,947 ✭✭✭fitz


    theVersatile wrote: »
    Or its almost as if Stander is a marked ball carrier wihh a reputation consistently targeted with two man hits - not a relatively new player on the scene with limited footage to analyse on video compared to Stander.

    Or its almost as if Leinster are a team with far more go forward momentum than Munster do and create more gaps as a result. It's easier to go forward when the team is charging towards the tryline at a rate of knots.

    Or its almost as if they are two players directed to do different objectives individually and deployed differently by their teams e.g find space in the tram lines out wide vs get us a dominant platform with a carry from an edge ruck where the whole d-line is set.

    Or maybe players have different qualities which they utilise in different ways (standards brute strength in close quarters compared to Doris burst of acceleration when playing off 10 or wider).

    Or perhaps it is a carrying technique issue. (CJ does tend to carry upright when playing off nine and lead with his forearms, only getting lower for those drives close to the line.)

    This list of hypothetical reasons for statistical differences goes on and on. There may also be multiple reasons - a combination of the above or other points, as opposed to just the one.

    I'm not saying your POV is wrong - I'd just like to highlight how there is more than one way to skin a cat.

    Don't disagree with any of those potential interpretations, but regardless of the reasons, the stats still suggest a clear answer on who the more effective carrier is at the moment, and it's certainly not who is being touted by someone else earlier on as the clear, head-and-shoulders-ahead-of-other-options choice at 8.

    Fwiw, I think Stander would do well at 6 with another strong carrier at 8. Imo, it's POM who should be making way for Doris and/or Deegan.


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    #4302
    troyzer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,199 ✭✭✭troyzer


    stephen_n wrote: »
    Or he runs in a straight line at the nearest opposition player, they’ve analysed his game and know that he rarely offloads or passes, so it’s an easy tackle to make. Lose a couple of yards and try slow the ball down.

    This^

    Deegan and Doris are better ball carriers precisely because they have the skills to fix defenders and make them respect their passing.

    Stander is a lump, he's a great lump, but he's still a lump. His passing is non existent, he runs into players and he's very easy to defend as a result.

    There is still a place for those kind of filthy carries in the tight but at 6, not 8.


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    #4303
    penybont exile
    Registered Users Posts: 732 ✭✭✭penybont exile


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    Stander was the only Irish player in Japan that performed consistently. YouR hatred of Munster is just sad.
    No skin in this particular game ..... Just my thoughts from watching Irish rugby over the last 12 months .... sometimes you just have to freshen things up a little ........ maybe also provoke a reaction from some who have just gotten far too comfortable.

    Anyway we'll know soon enough which way Farrell Snr will go .......


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    #4304
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,142 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    What has that to do with anything? So Munster are playing off the level that they aspire to??? We are talking about the inability of people to look at all player impartially, not the performance of one team. Get with the program there kid.

    Son it's got plenty to do with it. If POM etc were performing like ... a decent rugby team, maybe they would be looked upon more favorably, kid.
    The fact that everyone see's the same load of **** coming from the Munster star's is not a bias. In fact kiddo! Commendations on your grasping onto your provincial players.


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    #4305
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,142 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    theVersatile wrote: »
    CJ played extremely well today - Murray was MOTM...
    That's all I'll say

    Against a crap, underperforming out of contention Ospreys.


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    #4306
    bilston
    Registered Users Posts: 17,748 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    theVersatile wrote: »
    CJ played extremely well today - Murray was MOTM...
    That's all I'll say

    I don't think MOTM means a lot, especially against a weak team...

    However that said I think Murray may well start. Cooney will add pace to Ireland's game, but Murray brings more accuracy and obviously experience. Scotland play at 100mph, so maybe Farrell will want a more methodical approach to counter that, and therefore he may well start Murray.


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    #4307
    Dog Botherer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,641 ✭✭✭Dog Botherer


    Ospreys were by some distance the worst team in the CC this season, and are rooted to the bottom of their conference in the Pro14. An AIL team would probably beat them, even with their internationals.

    fwiw i still think Stander should start at 6, with VDF at 7 and either Deegan or Doris at 8, whoever doesn’t start benches.

    I see no value to having POM in the 23 right now.


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    #4308
    Panda Killa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭Panda Killa


    I look at the squad...
    Then I look at the coaches... basically the same setup minus Joe, who let's face it... wasn't involved in the day to day coaching....
    and I see nothing to encourage me that this setup will get the best from our players.
    I think the irfu have tried to play safe with this coaching ticket.. and will be shown to have ballsed it up over the course of the coming 6 nations.
    I hope I'm wrong... but I think we're in for a rude awakening


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    #4309
    salmocab
    Registered Users Posts: 11,286 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Panda Killa wrote: »
    I look at the squad...
    Then I look at the coaches... basically the same setup minus Joe, who let's face it... wasn't involved in the day to day coaching....
    and I see nothing to encourage me that this setup will get the best from our players.
    I think the irfu have tried to play safe with this coaching ticket.. and will be shown to have ballsed it up over the course of the coming 6 nations.
    I hope I'm wrong... but I think we're in for a rude awakening

    Was Joe not involved in the day to day coaching?
    My read on it was he was too involved in every little detail.


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    #4310
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,037 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Panda Killa wrote: »
    I look at the squad...
    Then I look at the coaches... basically the same setup minus Joe, who let's face it... wasn't involved in the day to day coaching....
    and I see nothing to encourage me that this setup will get the best from our players.
    I think the irfu have tried to play safe with this coaching ticket.. and will be shown to have ballsed it up over the course of the coming 6 nations.
    I hope I'm wrong... but I think we're in for a rude awakening

    Same coaches??

    We've a new head coach, new scrum coach and new attack coach....


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    #4311
    Burkie1203
    Registered Users Posts: 11,141 ✭✭✭✭Burkie1203


    theVersatile wrote: »
    Seems like a fairly ignorant way of going about things. For what it's worth for the other guys argument CJ is the highest carrier in the CC this season with 118 (22 ahead of Coetzee in 2nd), the second highest tackler with 88 (10 behind JVDF)

    Being the highest carrier means nothing. Especially when your team is out at group stages. It also points to a fairly one dimensional game plan and over reliance on one player to carry. Kilcoyne was far more effective in the first 40 v R92 for example. Ben Kayser on comms even noted it more then once.

    Stander works very hard. However like in the RWC he has been very ineffective in the last 15 months IMO. NZ game in Japan, 2 min in and Stander was lining up to carry. You could hear the NZ players shouting "8 8 8 8" and three of them lined up to tackle him, hold him up and win the turnover. From the resultant scrum NZ scored. Game over.

    Every team will do this at 6n level. This role need a to be redefined to have him in the team. We need to move the ball 20m away from rucks and get him going at soft shoulders/backs. Trucking it up in heavy traffic produces slow ball too often. The "he sucks in 3 defenders creating space elsewhere" argument has never really materialised in a really meaningful game in the last 15 months. Or if he did create that quick ball and space the Munster backs hadn't a clue what to do and kicked the ball away.


    I didnt see yesterdays game. But the Ospreys have won just one game this season and have the worse try scoring record and defence going.

    We need a 2nd ball carrier in the Ireland backrow. Doris or Deegan fit that bill both have also been excellent lineout options for Leinster.


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    #4312
    Panda Killa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,384 ✭✭✭Panda Killa


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Same coaches??

    We've a new head coach, new scrum coach and new attack coach....

    Catt is new to the setup .. but Farrell has been the "head coach" in the literal term for a year I think....Joe overseeing from a distance...
    I'm going out on a limb here...and bookmark this... but no think we're going to have a very bad year internationally....I hope I'm wrong...but can't see it


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    #4313
    salmocab
    Registered Users Posts: 11,286 ✭✭✭✭salmocab


    Panda Killa wrote: »
    Catt is new to the setup .. but Farrell has been the "head coach" in the literal term for a year I think....Joe overseeing from a distance...
    I'm going out on a limb here...and bookmark this... but no think we're going to have a very bad year internationally....I hope I'm wrong...but can't see it

    John Fogarty is new coach


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    #4314
    Clegg
    Registered Users Posts: 16,710 ✭✭✭✭Clegg


    On Burkie's point about lack of carriers in the backrow, one of the things I want to see us do is use VDF more. We've seen with Leinster that he's very effective on quick ball not only in the wider channels, but also closer to the ruck. He has great acceleration so if the ball is recycled quickly he can punch a hole in defences that aren't set. VDF was a great played for Ireland during Schmidt's tenure, but he wasn't used for his carrying which never made sense. Since POM isn't a good carrier at all it led to Stander doing all the hard work in that area.


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    #4315
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Panda Killa wrote: »
    Catt is new to the setup .. but Farrell has been the "head coach" in the literal term for a year I think....Joe overseeing from a distance...
    I'm going out on a limb here...and bookmark this... but no think we're going to have a very bad year internationally....I hope I'm wrong...but can't see it

    Not sure where you're getting the idea that Joe wasn't heavily involved.

    But I do a agree in some way. I'm not overly enthused by Farrell at all.


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    #4316
    molloyjh
    Registered Users Posts: 24,745 ✭✭✭✭molloyjh


    Panda Killa wrote: »
    Catt is new to the setup .. but Farrell has been the "head coach" in the literal term for a year I think....Joe overseeing from a distance...
    I'm going out on a limb here...and bookmark this... but no think we're going to have a very bad year internationally....I hope I'm wrong...but can't see it

    I really, really, really dont think Joe took a step back last year. With everything we know of the guy that wouldnt exactly be his style. It would also be ridiculous in a RWC to essentially change your head coach following such a good 2018.

    It remains to be seen how we go this year, but already Farrell hasnt been afraid to leave some established guys out and bring in young lads. That in itself will create a different atmosphere. We've no idea how he views the game or how he feels it should be played so we've no idea what direction he plans on taking us. We've also got new attack coach and scrum coach.

    Its fashionable to have harsh hot takes in Irish rugby right now. But Leinster and Ulster are going well in Europe. Connacht have done reasonably well thisnseason given their injury woes. And Munster are still better than most sides in England and France. One area we've struggled in recent years has been the back 3. This year we have Stockdale, Conway, Larmour and Addison all looking really good with guys like Earls and Dave Kearney backing them up. That alone is a positive step forward. Added to a really competitive centre battle and we have some real possibilities in the back line.

    I've no actual expectations good or bad myself. I'm just looking forward to seeing where we're going.


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    #4317
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,037 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Panda Killa wrote: »
    Catt is new to the setup .. but Farrell has been the "head coach" in the literal term for a year I think

    ???? where are you getting that from? are you confusing him with Galthie by any chance?

    Joe was obviously head coach in every single sense of the word up until the end of the RWC.

    Have you not read any of the fall out from the RWC where the main criticism of Joe was he was too detailed and involved and never "off" at all.

    and as said already, fogarty and Catt are new senior coaches in there....


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    #4318
    Granny15
    Registered Users Posts: 1,129 ✭✭✭Granny15


    ionadnapokot wrote: »
    All depends on the role Farrell will ask of his pack and the type of shape he implements...if any. e.g Ruck heavy v offloading

    Fascinating times ahead.
    I’m Intrigued as to how the plethora of uncapped back row talent will develop over the next few years.
    Dorris and Connors look a cut above the pack right now.

    Going to start a thread on this tonight!


    I see in your thread you have Connors ahead of Leavy and VDF.

    What makes you so sure from his limited appearances he is a "cut above".

    From my viewing of him he has been a very limited if hard working player.


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    #4319
    Granny15
    Registered Users Posts: 1,129 ✭✭✭Granny15


    theVersatile wrote: »
    Or its almost as if Stander is a marked ball carrier wihh a reputation consistently targeted with two man hits - not a relatively new player on the scene with limited footage to analyse on video compared to Stander.

    Or its almost as if Leinster are a team with far more go forward momentum than Munster do and create more gaps as a result. It's easier to go forward when the team is charging towards the tryline at a rate of knots.

    Or its almost as if they are two players directed to do different objectives individually and deployed differently by their teams e.g find space in the tram lines out wide vs get us a dominant platform with a carry from an edge ruck where the whole d-line is set.

    Or maybe players have different qualities which they utilise in different ways (standards brute strength in close quarters compared to Doris burst of acceleration when playing off 10 or wider).

    Or perhaps it is a carrying technique issue. (CJ does tend to carry upright when playing off nine and lead with his forearms, only getting lower for those drives close to the line.)

    This list of hypothetical reasons for statistical differences goes on and on. There may also be multiple reasons - a combination of the above or other points, as opposed to just the one.

    I'm not saying your POV is wrong - I'd just like to highlight how there is more than one way to skin a cat.

    Ah I see I have a fellow admirer on here. I've been saying for years that the stats can be used to paint a picture but are often misleading due to circumstances like the ones you have posted above.

    Also it's not easy to access the stats of ESPN - they have ESPN.co.uk ESPN.scrum.com and even then they are not readily accessible.

    Stats are a joke - to the man with his head in the fire and his feet in the freezer is he said to be on "average" at an ok temperature? People will argue the stats show these fluctuations but giving averages is often misleading. Did he gain more metres against tough or weak opposition?


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    #4320
    cantwbr1
    Registered Users Posts: 303 ✭✭cantwbr1


    Granny15 wrote: »
    Ah I see I have a fellow admirer on here. I've been saying for years that the stats can be used to paint a picture but are often misleading due to circumstances like the ones you have posted above.

    Also it's not easy to access the stats of ESPN - they have ESPN.co.uk ESPN.scrum.com and even then they are not readily accessible.

    Stats are a joke - to the man with his head in the fire and his feet in the freezer is he said to be on "average" at an ok temperature? People will argue the stats show these fluctuations but giving averages is often misleading. Did he gain more metres against tough or weak opposition?

    That’s fine but the conversation started with the OP stating that the stats prove that Stander is head and shoulders above everyone else when carrying without providing the stats.

    The goalposts suddenly moved when someone provided stats that disproved the original statement


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    #4321
    Granny15
    Registered Users Posts: 1,129 ✭✭✭Granny15


    cantwbr1 wrote: »
    That’s fine but the conversation started with the OP stating that the stats prove that Stander is head and shoulders above everyone else when carrying without providing the stats.

    The goalposts suddenly moved when someone provided stats that disproved the original statement

    Ah I see you're one of our many new arrivals over the past week. Sigh. Welcome


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