Ireland Team Talk X: The Long Hard Road to a Semi. MOD WARNING POSTS #1, #1474, #5707

Diabhal Beag wrote: »

If Carty is truly benching it means he'll get 10 minutes. Carberry already showed what he can do against Scotland and if he keeps fit is guaranteed second choice OH.

Carty has played beyond anybody's wildest expectations in the last 18 months and absolute deserves a cap. My fear is that his first cap will be in August.

If he only gets 10 mins that would mean we are struggling, which I can’t see happening. If the game is wrapped up by 50 mins he’ll be on then.

Really interesting selection if it comes to pass which has some curious suggestions for the RWC 31 man squad. I don't think Thornley will have it 100%. He often has one or two mistakes/changes and with this number of changes, it would be likely.

I don't know why we wouldn't start John Ryan here. He needs the start much more than Furlong and is an able deputy. On the other side, Kilcoyne deserves his start hugely. Interesting that Cronin gets the nod to start finally (unbelievable that this is his first ever 6N start). There was a line of thinking that Scannell would come into the starting line up if Best was out as Cronin was better off the bench but this disrupts that thinking.

By far the most interesting selection is the second row. They both handsomely deserve their starts but I think most will be very surprised given that both Henderson and Beirne are available. It really puts the cat amongst the pigeons for that 4th lock spot for the RWC squad. Beirne is clear frontrunnner given his flexibility but this selection suggests nothing is in concrete yet.

The back row appears very much a selection with the RWC in mind if Murphy gets the nod. He hasn't played 8 this season and Conan has been selected ahead of him for Ireland multiple times in the past 12 months. But Murphy offers that extra level of flexibility and, if he shows he can still deliver at 8, Conan's already slim chances of making the RWC will disappear.

The back line is much of a muchness. I expected Henshaw to be in there somewhere, potentially at 23 but it appears he's on the outside at this point. If we actually take injuries into account, the bench is very unexciting and appears to be pretty much as strong as they could go with outside of Cian Healy. Carty, Conway and Cooney are all present because of injuries/recovery for others, it seems.

Bazzo wrote: »

Criticism of his goal kicking last season was bat****. Myself and several others pointed it out consistently throughout the season but his goal kicking was improved enormously last season, I think towards the mid/end point of the season his success rate was in the high 70s.

Yep I said it a few times last season Carty had much improved but anytime he missed a kick there were a number of people bemoaning his kicking ability which was mainly down to their perceptions of him based on previous seasons

Former Former wrote: »

His inclusion is no surprise since Carbery is injured, the question is what happens next.

The Sexton vs Carty hype train starts

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

Is Carbery definitely injured?
Hadn’t read that anywhere yet.

Thornley's article where he named the probable team:

Furthermore, apparently Carbery has picked up an injury in training, and with Ross Byrne having been selected to play for Leinster, Carty is thus in line to be named on the bench.

However, in addition to Carty possibly replacing Carbery, it seems as if there will be at least one more change among the backs in the 23 as word is Jordan Larmour picked up a finger injury in training.

With Will Addison back in Ulster to undergo treatment on a lower back problem, this would suggest that either Henshaw or, perhaps more likely, Andrew Conway, will come into the 23, not least as they can each cover fullback.

So, Thornley has a lot of news there on changes from the Scotland match.
Read the article there, and summary below:

Healy to be rested, Kilcoyne to start and McGrath on the bench.
Cronin and Best to swap.
John Ryan recalled to bench with Porter released back to Leinster.
James Ryan to be rested with Dillane to start and Henderson on the bench, no room for Beirne.
Conan left out for Murphy to start at 8.
Aki and Chris Farrell to partner up in the centre again, no room for Henshaw.
Carty to replace Carbery on the bench due to injury.
Conway to replace Larmour on the bench due to finger injury.

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

Of everything I read there I am most glad to see James Ryan rested. He has played a massive amount of high level minutes over the past 18 months.

I wouldn't mind seeing Furlong get the week off too but sure look

Agreed.
John Ryan to start with Furlong on the bench would be a good swap.
Though, that would be 4 changes in the tight five, which might be too much change.
The way it was suggested by Thornley would have 2 retained, 2 rested and 1 benched with 3 promoted from the bench to start, 1 released from the bench and 3 new subs.
Probably a good balance to that amount of change without overdoing it.

1 change to the back row, direct swap of Murphy for Conan.

No change to the back-line, however, Sexton had so few minutes last time that this is almost like a change there.
Conway for Larmour and Carty for Carbery although injury enforced are actually favourable switches also to spread around the game time to the whole squad.

If Carbery is genuinely out for 3 weeks, it's a bit of a disaster for the RWC preparation. I think they're too far down the road to look at anyone else now but it's going to mean that Carbery may go into the RWC with 70 minutes against top tier oppostion in the past 12 months with 55 of those minutes coming against Scotland a fortnight ago.

I don't count the RWC warm ups as proper tier one matches before anyone points that out!