Storm Jorge : February 29th

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

Hence why I actually asked how quickly it was due to move across the country.

Ah you're not the worst offender!

However, you can understand the annoyance on here due to the sheer abundance of "will my flight/car journey/event/potted plant be okay at X time"! Plus alot of the time the people who answer these questions know very little or no more information than what's been said on thread already.

It's also quite annoying when you can very very easily go onto the Met Éireann website, read the timings of the warnings, read their written and digital forecasts and read wind forecast maps yourself if you so wish. Even if you'd rather just stay on this website, MT offers a top class daily forecast, for free, on this forum.

A storm that begins tomorrow morning will not still be blowing as strong on Monday evening, that's common sense.

Deleted User wrote: »

Yep, in fact it wants to keep the bulk of them out to sea. Why is it different to the Dutch Hirlam? Does it crunch different data?

HIRLAM is not a "model" per se, it's a European collaboration for high res weather models. Arome and Harmonie are part of the project. Countries can use the same model but tweak "settings" based on their needs that may or may not give a more accurate output.

http://hirlam.org/

Forecast for 18Z shows the tightest gradient over the central band of the country, including Connacht to north/central Leinster. Interesting day ahead.

Follow the Finnis Buoy, which is located just east of the Aran Islands. Should be right in the thick of it tomorrow. It reports winds and seas every few minutes.

https://twitter.com/FinnisBuoy?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

The buoy left standing (K4) at 55.4N 12.5W is down to 968 mbs, the low is now around 55N 17W and moving due east towards that buoy, could be right over it by about 10-11z. Should survive as the wind field within that sector will only get strong a while after the low has passed.

Satellite imagery shows clear development of the strong WSW winds about to reach land. Slow but steady increase in wind speed can be expected -- Belmullet may peak and back down, Newport still looks on the edge as the main thrust will be towards Galway and Clare.

In the warned areas, would say that red alert conditions most likely to be in the time frame 0900-1500h with that being a bit wider than the most likely span 1000-1400h.

Fisterra, northwest Spain, gusted to 145 km/hr at 0200h when the cold front passed. Otherwise top gusts 80-100 km/hr range in northern Spain generally. Some gusts in Brittany to 110 km/hr.

The 03z reading from the K3 buoy was 965.8 mb, wind 31 knots SSW.

A serious amount of snow falling in clare right now

Millionaire only not wrote: »

Try west clare , parts of us might end up over ye today ! I hope they get ths one wrong in the strength of it!

Ye are pretty exposed over there alright, I hope they are wrong too, can see a lot of trees coming down if they are right, they have gotten a good rattling for the last month. The ground is either saturated or submerged.

No snow here - NW Clare coast. Just a shower of hail. Winds not too bad yet. Increased a little with shower but settled back again.

Thepillowman wrote: »

Woke up about twenty minutes ago bit of a breeze, went outside as wind picked up strangest sound off of Lough Derg I have ever heard. Wind has really picked up in last 10mins and now snowing. Think it's going to be a rough day in East Clare.

Also in East Clare, about 20 miles west of you, it's very quiet...

Low centre has been making steady progress past three hours due east along 55N, pressure at K4 now 958 mbs and wind has increased to 39 knots (in a zone that was not expected to see the maximum winds).

The satellite imagery tell a story of gathering storm force winds aimed right at Galway and south half of Mayo. Although there will likely be a sharp cut-off just because Mayo is orange rather than red, if you live in Westport or Louisburgh assume you're in for red alert conditions. Newport and Keel may be more on the edge of that. Belmullet could see some stronger variations including some times where it backs off to yellow.

Clare still right in line also. Would say from all evidence the low is 55N 14W and 950 mbs give or take 3 mbs. Pressure is nowhere near finished falling at 12.5W where the buoy is located, rate of fall has increased both of the past two hours.

This will probably hit harder inland than some are expecting, in particular across south Galway into Roscommon and perhaps also north Limerick. The combination of very strong wind, wintry showers, and cold temperatures make this a different animal than most winter storms we have discussed, not only stronger perhaps but also different in the spectrum of hazards to anyone out there today. I would err on the side of caution about possible road conditions by later this morning into the afternoon. It will be quite variable to say the least and could be very bad at times with this combination of hazards.

Re Feb 1988 storm, I had a look through archived weather maps and it was probably on the 9th. Looks stronger than today's storm by 10-20 per cent in terms of gradient winds, also the gradient was a bit more north of due west, the low tracked e.s.e. to a similar 18z position as today's predicted outcome, and it was around 945 mbs at lowest.