Storm Jorge : February 29th

nthclare

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Couldn't agree more, I live in Clare - well inland from the coast. To suggest we are red, and a townload a few km away (and technically closer to the coast) is orange raises my suspicions. Shane Ross having one last laugh?

Im going for a drive from Ballyvaughan to Doolin tomorrow.
Red will be a good show.

M.T. Cranium

Agree with all who mention the need to apply the red alert to portions of the affected counties, but be aware that since this storm seems intent on waiting until closer approach to unleash its maximum winds, those might make a better inland penetration from Galway Bay, you'll be the best judge of the potential for a direct hit of strong winds there to reach your location inland. I realize there's some considerable topography to the west of north Galway but not much in the way between Galway city and Roscommon, which is why earlier I was speculating that they might extend the severe warnings to Roscommon (southern half at least).

So now with this red alert in place, obviously it won't just magically trend from red to orange at the exact location where county boundaries meet the ocean, although with the Galway-Mayo distinction most of the guidance seems to be showing the blast of strong winds very much cut off just to the north of Westport until a later phase when the storm begins to pull the circulation back north (in a somewhat weakened state) with perhaps a secondary maximum of strong wind gusts for the evening around Mayo, Sligo and Donegal.

If it had been my call I would have included Kerry, too close to call on leaving them orange and I feel that red could verify around Dingle peninsula and Ballybunion. So a few parts of Limerick might feel it too.

As to not reaching red alert levels inland, here again, be cautious as this could be far enough into coastal red range that inland extensions will be considerable. This might not be just your Mace Head 1 km/hr into red but more like all-out 90 knot peak gusts there, so usually for every increase of 1% at the coast there's a similar increase further inland, it would extend the reach of damaging wind gusts to any well exposed locations within 30-50 km of the coast.

That one model (FMI-Hirlam I think) showing an earlier depiction of a track into Mayo and more southerly impacts -- I think that was a case of GIGO at work. Not sure what got into that model but you can clearly see from both current satellite imagery and model consensus that the track will take the low past Belmullet into Donegal Bay and if it ever hits land in Ireland it would likely be Inishowen.

One prediction that I feel very confident about is that I will not be sleeping again until about 2300h Saturday, so put the coffee on ...

Graces7, a thought for you, I know you aren't keen on being too specific about location but with this very sharp cutoff depicted where one side of Westport could see hurricane force gusts and the other side just moderate winds most of the day until later seeing the leftovers, your exact location will determine perhaps whether you're in for a hammering, so let us know at least in cryptic terms whether you're north, west or south of Westport, it will help us understand the context of your reports if you happen to be near that cut-off. Somebody somewhere will be right on the line and could have some very interesting oscillations from severe gusts to calm and back.

catrat12

I live in high in the Dublin mountains and most evenings would merit a yellow warning, good luck to all in the west tomorrow keep safe

Also anyone know if snow potential with the storm my app keeps popping up snow

DOCARCH

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I give up... My mother has been downplaying the storm all day and saying that "they don't know what they are on about half the time"....

She may be right?

Before you start your 'non-event' posts, note that Donegal (if that's where you are) is unlikely to feel the full force of this storm as the storm centre is likely to track over Donegal/over NI with strongest winds further south.

pauldry

The kids wanted a Red Warning so they'd be off school

Well they got their wish

Red Warning
And off school

Thank God on a Saturday otherwise woulda have to lose a days holiday

Rougies

catrat12 wrote: »

I live in high in the Dublin mountains and most evenings would merit a yellow warning, good luck to all in the west tomorrow keep safe

Also anyone know if snow potential with the storm my app keeps popping up snow

High ground in the Dublin/Wicklow mountains should see snow tomorrow afternoon. I'd say accumulating nicely anywhere over about 300m with a wetter messy mix lower down.

Laurali

pauldry wrote: »

The kids wanted a Red Warning so they'd be off school

Well they got their wish

Red Warning
And off school

Thank God on a Saturday otherwise woulda have to lose a days holiday

not necessarily, my company in Galway are business as usual tomorrow, asking people to be cautious when walking outside and on the journey home.

:pac:

M.T. Cranium

As to timing, lots of questions asked on that subject ...

The very strong winds will start to appear in west Munster around daybreak, peaking anywhere south of Clifden by about noon to 3 p.m., but quite strong as early as 0900h. From Clifden to Newport, it's a nowcast situation as some models show that stretch protected by the slack inner core gradients until afternoon, others have oscillating blasts of strong and not as strong winds. From Newport around to Donegal, would say after an early peak then a longish interval of nothing much happening, where is the storm? then it eventually does hit in somewhat reduced form at first, by late afternoon or evening, and ramps back up a notch by late evening.

Timing inland depends on where inland, but into south Galway and Roscommon, peak also around noon to 3 p.m.

South coast is going to have a longer and flatter signal, strongish gusts possible all the time after the cold front goes through tonight.

leahyl

Pouring out of the heavens in Cork City now

Dublin1988

For a clear red warning, does anyone think there will be repercussions for thrill chasers surfing or whatever. There are always a select few who clearly deny these warnings and get into trouble.

Andrew00

I heard today that you're not insured if you drive in Red Warning weather....

Is this true

Andrew00

Andrew00 wrote: »

I heard today that you're not insured if you drive in Red Warning weather....

Is this true

Jeez.... I bet you heard that on Facebook?


Of course its not true.

Deja Boo

Animated, interactive weather forecast map from Windy.com

JCX BXC

Andrew00 wrote: »

I heard today that you're not insured if you drive in Red Warning weather....

Is this true

That would make driving in Red warning weather illegal, which is bizzare altogether.

Folks, as someone who doesn't really fully understand the graphs and coloured maps that are posted in these threads, can I ask a bit of a 'Joe Soap' question?

I've to fly a drone in Roscommon over the weekend. A little gust of wind won't make a difference, but severe, strong constant wind will. Also, rain makes it unusable.

Would ye recommend I go out tomorrow (Saturday) or Sunday? I've no real choice but to do it over the weekend. From skimming the thread here, it sounds like Sunday will be calmer than Saturday? But Im not sure if I'm reading it right or not..

Oneiric 3

Latest WV satellite image. Beginning to take shape:



from the Icelandic Met Office.

JCX BXC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Folks, as someone who doesn't really fully understand the graphs and coloured maps that are posted in these threads, can I ask a bit of a 'Joe Soap' question?

I've to fly a drone in Roscommon over the weekend. A little gust of wind won't make a difference, but severe, strong constant wind will. Also, rain makes it unusable.

Would ye recommend I go out tomorrow (Saturday) or Sunday? I've no real choice but to do it over the weekend. From skimming the thread here, it sounds like Sunday will be calmer than Saturday? But Im not sure if I'm reading it right or not..

To be fair, you don't have to ever see/read/comprehend a weather chart to know it's a bad idea to fly a drone in an orange wind warning.

Don't fly the drone!

I'd check whether the insurance is valid during wind warnings first.

M.T. Cranium

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

That one model (FMI-Hirlam I think) showing an earlier depiction of a track into Mayo and more southerly impacts -- I think that was a case of GIGO at work. Not sure what got into that model but you can clearly see from both current satellite imagery and model consensus that the track will take the low past Belmullet into Donegal Bay and if it ever hits land in Ireland it would likely be Inishowen. One prediction that I feel very confident about is that I will not be sleeping again until about 2300h Saturday, so put the coffee on ...

MT, I posted the 6Z FMI-HIRLAM run earlier. The 12Z run is even further south for this low. Centre over Galway Bay. No Red warning for Galway or Clare. It doesn't want to play ball at all. Why are the Dutch & Finnish HIRLAM differing here?

Snow Garden

High tide is 8:35am in Galway tomorrow so it's shouldn't be too bad for the storm peak.

The water levels on the River Corrib have gone done a small bit but more rain may see it hitting the 2016 record.

woohoo!!!

Snow Garden wrote: »

High tide is 8am in Galway tomorrow so it's shouldn't be too bad for the storm peak.

The water levels on the River Corrib have gone done a small bit but more rain may see it hitting the 2016 record.

Might be the high tide tomorrow evening

Oneiric 3

Although it is going to be unpleasantly wet at times, it does look at this stage that actual rainfall totals over this weekend won't be a huge issue. Won't help those already flooded regions for sure, but modest totals like this would be unlikely to add further problems to any significant degree.

Forecast totals for between now and Monday morning:

Oneiric 3

Deleted User wrote: »

MT, I posted the 6Z FMI-HIRLAM run earlier. The 12Z run is even further south for this low. Centre over Galway Bay. No Red warning for Galway or Clare. It doesn't want to play ball at all. Why are the Dutch & Finnish HIRLAM differing here?

Interesting and maybe one to watch, but I will say the FMI branch of the HIRLAM does have a habit of 'going off on one' on occasion. Not the first time I have noticed this with this particular model.

flazio

Living in Ballinasloe which is in Galway, would I be better off heeding the Roscommon Orange warning or the Galway red? I reckon I'm far enough inland to treat it as orange.

Graces7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest WV satellite image. Beginning to take shape:



from the Icelandic Met Office.

Looks like something.. organic.. shudders

Snow Garden

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Might be the high tide tomorrow evening

Not until 9pm and it's a lower high tide (4.4m). The worst winds will have passed by then (Red warning ends at 4pm).

Graces7

leahyl wrote: »

Pouring out of the heavens in Cork City now

Much the same out here...

Meteorite58

UKMO

Relatively slow moving storm, still deepening on approach and begins to fill slowly after the center moves N .

Logan Roy

flazio wrote: »

Living in Ballinasloe which is in Galway, would I be better off heeding the Roscommon Orange warning or the Galway red? I reckon I'm far enough inland to treat it as orange.

Just look out the window.....

Gaoth Laidir

Jorge at 6 pm.