General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

McMurphy · 18-01-2020 12:21pm

The bookies have FF well clear of FG according to their odds.

Bookies conduct their own opinion polls too I assume?

An Ciarraioch · 18-01-2020 2:08pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Apparently a B&A poll in the Sunday Times tomorrow. Dropping this in from other thread.

Just as a comparison, here's their last one from December. Notable here is the somewhat dubious support level for SF, given that the average support level for SF across all polls is 15%.
FG 27 FF 27 SF 20 Lab 6 GR 6 PBP 2 IA 2 SD 1 Ind/Others 9

I presume Red C will also have one - they generally poll mid-month, even without an election.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2020 2:24pm

Mod: One-liner deleted.

antimatterx · 18-01-2020 2:26pm

I think FG actually some fantastic female candidates Catherine Noone, Emer currie, Emer Higgins

Water John · 18-01-2020 2:50pm

One is looking for trends over time, esp within each pollster. The actual figure whilst important, the direction of the electorate is what is key, who is rising, who is falling.

L1011 · 18-01-2020 2:52pm

This ensure that Renua can't somehow get state funding again next time, thankfully - probably couldn't get to 30% women if they ran every female member of the party!

sid waddell · 18-01-2020 4:09pm

L1011 wrote: »

This ensure that Renua can't somehow get state funding again next time, thankfully - probably couldn't get to 30% women if they ran every female member of the party!

They could decide to run a total of three candidates...

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 6:04pm

Water John wrote: »

One is looking for trends over time, esp within each pollster. The actual figure whilst important, the direction of the electorate is what is key, who is rising, who is falling.

And the level of Don't Knows. It tends to be near the last week when it falls to single figures. Anything over 20% at this stage is not very informative.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 6:05pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I presume Red C will also have one - they generally poll mid-month, even without an election.

I'd say we'll see themselves and IPSOS do polls over the next week or so. IPSOS tend to be midweek.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 6:17pm

McMurphy wrote: »

The bookies have FF well clear of FG according to their odds.

Bookies conduct their own opinion polls too I assume?

The odd Paddy Power one I think. Heavy betting will do that as well and FF have been talked about as (slight() favourites so you would expect people to pile into that.

Water John · 18-01-2020 7:44pm

Some pollsters have got the adjusting the 'don't knows' pretty accurate at this point.

is_that_so · 18-01-2020 8:22pm

Water John wrote: »

Some pollsters have got the adjusting the 'don't knows' pretty accurate at this point.

It's not adjusting them it's how many there are in a poll. Normally nobody really cares but in an election campaign they show how engaged voters are.

L1011 · 18-01-2020 9:18pm

Polls usually leak before the 9 news - bit odd it hasn't come out yet

PopePalpatine · 18-01-2020 9:25pm

There's still 34 minutes for it to happen.

Sierra Oscar · 18-01-2020 9:39pm

Sunday Times have one tomorrow but there is a strict embargo on it, no publication in advance of the paper being published itself.

I'm predicting FG -5% FF +5%, ten point swing to FF. Terrible start to the campaign for FG.

Greens may also be up which might take from FF's gains, but I think FG will take a large hit outside the MoE.

An Ciarraioch · 18-01-2020 10:04pm

A poster on another thread claimed it showed FG on 20%, and FF on 30+%, but unless he works for B&A, unsure where they got that info?

An Ciarraioch · 18-01-2020 10:05pm

is_that_so wrote: »

The odd Paddy Power one I think. Heavy betting will do that as well and FF have been talked about as (slight() favourites so you would expect people to pile into that.

Also, seems to be considered easier for FF to tack to the left for coalition partners.

Sierra Oscar · 18-01-2020 10:08pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A poster on another thread claimed it showed FG on 20%, and FF on 30+%, but unless he works for B&A, unsure where they got that info?

The last Sunday Times poll had the following:

FG - 27%
FF - 27%
SF - 20%
LAB - 6%
S-PBP - 3%
SF - 1%
GP - 6%
IA - 2%
I/O - 9%

Hard to see FG falling to 20%, a 7% drop would be a massive decline in one poll.

Even a 5% drop would be huge even though I wouldn't be hugely surprised if that transpired. In reality FG slipping to 25%'ish and FF increasing to 30%'ish is probably more realistic.

I think the Greens will be touching 10% before the election is out. They will pick up a lot of soft FG voters and will be transfer friendly.

FrancieBrady · 18-01-2020 10:10pm

Sun Times not releasing until midnight via their App.

Kh1993 · 18-01-2020 11:24pm

antimatterx wrote: »

I think Catherine Noone will scrape the last seat it. Would be a huge victory for FG to gain two seats in DBN

Noone has been parachuted in which can always go dreadfully wrong. Anyway, she’d probably be competing with Aodhans vote. Bruton is safe but he doesn’t have a massive amount to spare to get another FG in. I wouldn’t be a betting man as to what happens on the day but I’d imagine No one will end up around the same vote as the Green and Soc Dem. broughan might get enough from PBP and SF not running a 2nd.

hotmail.com · 18-01-2020 11:29pm

One hopes Aodhan doesn't get through. My god, what a bull*hitter. He's completely forgotten he was a government minister.

blackcard · 18-01-2020 11:39pm

I think that is certain that Michael Martin will be the next Taoiseach. Farmers not happy, Teachers going on strike, gangland crime, health, housing, memories of the bailout fading. If they get momentum behind them, I can see them in the 65-70 range and going into coalition with SF or Greens depending on the numbers

sid waddell · 18-01-2020 11:42pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

One hopes Aodhan doesn't get through. My god, what a bull*hitter. He's completely forgotten he was a government minister.

He was a good minister who was passionate about his brief and had excellent policy ideas. I'd be delighted to see him back in his old job.

antimatterx · 18-01-2020 11:43pm

Kh1993 wrote: »

Noone has been parachuted in which can always go dreadfully wrong. Anyway, she’d probably be competing with Aodhans vote. Bruton is safe but he doesn’t have a massive amount to spare to get another FG in. I wouldn’t be a betting man as to what happens on the day but I’d imagine No one will end up around the same vote as the Green and Soc Dem. broughan might get enough from PBP and SF not running a 2nd.

People keep saying this, but she lives in howth

Water John · 18-01-2020 11:46pm

FF will be the largest party but doubt it will be above 60. If their to pick up seats, it has to be largely in Dublin. But the Greens have first bite there on floating voters.

golfball37 · 18-01-2020 11:48pm

sid waddell wrote: »

He was a good minister who was passionate about his brief and had excellent policy ideas. I'd be delighted to see him back in his old job.

He only lacked one key ingredient- ability

bren2001 · 18-01-2020 11:50pm

hotmail.com wrote: »

One hopes Aodhan doesn't get through. My god, what a bull*hitter. He's completely forgotten he was a government minister.

How exactly is he a bull*hitter?

Always done his best for the area. Did a fine job as Minister. Passionate about his job, and a couple of topics. He's the exact person I want representing me.

L1011 · 18-01-2020 11:52pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sun Times not releasing until midnight via their App.

Which nearly nobody has. Wahey.

Sierra Oscar · 18-01-2020 11:53pm

There must be some sort of big movement in the ST poll.

https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/1218664815494864896

L1011 · 18-01-2020 11:54pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There must be some sort of big movement in the ST poll.

https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/1218664815494864896

It has to be above MoE in both directions surely in that case.

hotmail.com · 18-01-2020 11:58pm

sid waddell wrote: »

He was a good minister who was passionate about his brief and had excellent policy ideas. I'd be delighted to see him back in his old job.

All I know is that he promised to end Direct Provision and he didn't. He speaks about Direct Provision now as if he forgets he was in charge of it.

He also supported Joan Burton's decision to cut lone parents allowance. Many of the people involved in the drug feuds come from single parent households.

The cuts to this allowance and cuts to drug programmes which his government implemented are a major factor in the ongoing drug wars. Not to mention the economic deprivation in many parts of his own constituency.

Kh1993 · 18-01-2020 11:58pm

Aodhan has played to his potential vote. Opposing the St Anne’s development and Bus Connects will have picked him up enough votes, rightly or wrongly. I’d go as far as calling him a cert in the absence of McGrath.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 12:01am

Kh1993 wrote: »

Aodhan has played to his potential vote. Opposing the St Anne’s development and Bus Connects will have picked him up enough votes, rightly or wrongly. I’d go as far as calling him a cert in the absence of McGrath.

For a Labour TD to oppose the Bus Connects and the improvement of public transport is another reason this guy needs the heave ho.

He's standing up for those with large gardens - this is not supposed to be Labour territory.

Coillte_Bhoy · 19-01-2020 12:02am

Am i misissing something? Is this thread it on boards for the GE?

An Ciarraioch · 19-01-2020 12:03am

L1011 wrote: »

Which nearly nobody has. Wahey.

Gavan Reilly and every other pol corr will tweet the results almost instantly.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 12:06am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There must be some sort of big movement in the ST poll.

https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/1218664815494864896

Interesting!

Could there be a Sinn Fein bounce?

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 12:07am

L1011 wrote: »

It has to be above MoE in both directions surely in that case.

I think the 20 - 30+ theory must be the big shock.

Wouldn't surprise me with the start FG have had and a very bad lead in too, optics have been bad for a long time.

FF running on silent this last while too. Which seems to be working for them.

robman60 · 19-01-2020 12:07am

hotmail.com wrote: »

Interesting!

Could there be a Sinn Fein bounce?

If anyone is to bounce, I'd be thinking greens and not SF.

Water John · 19-01-2020 12:09am

Whoever is benefiting might decide to run extra candidates.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2020 12:10am

https://twitter.com/MHealyRae/status/1218667407285407749

This is the level folks

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 12:10am

robman60 wrote: »

If anyone is to bounce, I'd be thinking greens and not SF.

Possibly.

These polls may give rise to coalition talk and move the focus away from policies.

If it looks like the Greens or Sinn Fein can form a government with either of the two big parties, we can expect 3 weeks of coalition talk.

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 12:15am

hotmail.com wrote: »

Interesting!

Could there be a Sinn Fein bounce?

I doubt it. Sinn Féin haven't had a great week either. I'd say it's more likely that a big gap has opened up between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Could be 10%.

Worth noting that if this transpires it won't suit Fianna Fáil at all. They would much prefer to go under the radar for the campaign. Worked well for them in 2016.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 12:17am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I doubt it. Sinn Féin haven't had a great week either. I'd say it's more likely that a big gap has opened up between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Could be 10%.

I doubt the Holohan stuff will figure...Thursday is usually the poll day for these is it not?

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 12:18am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I doubt the Holohan stuff will figure...Thursday is usually the poll day for these is it not?

That's true actually. The polling might even pre-date the election somewhat?

PopePalpatine · 19-01-2020 12:19am

hotmail.com wrote: »

For a Labour TD to oppose the Bus Connects and the improvement of public transport is another reason this guy needs the heave ho.

He's standing up for those with large gardens - this is not supposed to be Labour territory.

Ugh, that reminds me, my bus route takes me past Joe Costello's office which had a "Communities Not Corridors" poster take pride of place in its front window.

Water John · 19-01-2020 12:20am

Mon- Thurs this week IWT.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 12:20am

Did this out this morning for anybody interested.

In the UK election I predicted the Tories would get 359 and Labour 199 so wasn't too far out though I did overestimate the Liberal Democrats.

A good FF poll tonight and you'd have to pile another few seats on top of what I've predicted here, Wicklow and Louth anyway.

Fine Gael election campaigns when in government are what would happen if the Tories didn't have a mass propaganda machine behind them, because Fine Gael dont have one.

1. CARLOW – KK (5)
1 FG 3 FF 1 GREEN

2. CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

3. CLARE (4)
2 FF 2 FG

4. DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1 SF

5. DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN 1 LAB

6. DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
1 FF 1 GREEN 1 FG 1 SOLIDARITY (BOYD BARRETT)

7. DUBLIN CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 SOC DEM 1 GREEN

8. DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG 2 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN

9. DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SOC DEM 1 SF 1 FF

10. DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SOLIDARITY (KENNY)

11. DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
2 FG, 1 GREEN

12. DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 IND (JOAN COLLINS) 1 FF 1 LAB

13. DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (PAUL MURPHY) 1 SF 1 GREEN

14. DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

15. CORK EAST (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 LAB

16. CORK NORTH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG

17. CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (BARRY)

18. CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 GREEN

19. CORK SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FF 1 FG 1 IND (MICHAEL COLLINS)

20. DONEGAL(5)
2 FF 2 SF 1 IND (THOMAS PRINGLE)

21. GALWAY EAST (3)
1 IND (ANNE RABBITTE) 1 FF 1 FG

22. GALWAY WEST (5)
2 FF 1 FG 2 IND (NOEL GREALISH, CATHERINE CONNOLLY)

23. KERRY (5)
2 IND (HEALY RAES) 1 FG 2 FF

24. KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 SOC DEM 1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN

25. KILDARE SOUTH (4)
3 FF 1 FG

26. LAOIS-OFFALY (5)
2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

27. LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LABOUR

28. LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
2 FF 1 FG

29. LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 IND (MORAN) 1 FG 2 FF

30. LOUTH (5)
1 SF 1 GREEN 1 LAB 1 FF 1 FG

31. MAYO (4)
2 FG 2 FF

32. MEATH EAST (3)
1 FF 2 FG

33. MEATH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG 1

34. ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3)
2 IND (NAUGHTEN, FITZMAURICE) 1 FF

35. SLIGO-LEITRIM (4)
2 FF 1 SF 1 IND (HARKIN)

36. TIPPERARY (5)
3 IND (LOWRY, MCGRATH, HEALY), 2 FF

37. WATERFORD (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 IND (SHANAHAN)

38. WEXFORD (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 LAB

39. WICKLOW (5)
2 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

Totals:
FG 41
FF 58
GREEN 13
SF 17
LAB 8
SOC DEM 3
OTHERS 20

padohaodha · 19-01-2020 12:26am

Only one ff candidate in limerick county. Can't win 2 seats

An Ciarraioch · 19-01-2020 12:28am

sid waddell wrote: »

Did this out this morning for anybody interested.

In the UK election I predicted the Tories would get 359 and Labour 199 so wasn't too far out though I did overestimate the Liberal Democrats.

A good FF poll tonight and you'd have to pile another few seats on top of what I've predicted here, Wicklow and Louth anyway.

Fine Gael election campaigns when in government are what would happen if the Tories didn't have a mass propaganda machine behind them, because Fine Gael dont have one.

1. CARLOW – KK (5)
1 FG 3 FF 1 GREEN

2. CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

3. CLARE (4)
2 FF 2 FG

4. DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1 SF

5. DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN 1 LAB

6. DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
1 FF 1 GREEN 1 FG 1 SOLIDARITY (BOYD BARRETT)

7. DUBLIN CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 SOC DEM 1 GREEN

8. DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG 2 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN

9. DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SOC DEM 1 SF 1 FF

10. DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SOLIDARITY (KENNY)

11. DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
2 FG, 1 GREEN

12. DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 IND (JOAN COLLINS) 1 FF 1 LAB

13. DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (PAUL MURPHY) 1 SF 1 GREEN

14. DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

15. CORK EAST (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 LAB

16. CORK NORTH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG

17. CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (BARRY)

18. CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 GREEN

19. CORK SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FF 1 FG 1 IND (MICHAEL COLLINS)

20. DONEGAL(5)
2 FF 2 SF 1 IND (THOMAS PRINGLE)

21. GALWAY EAST (3)
1 IND (ANNE RABBITTE) 1 FF 1 FG

22. GALWAY WEST (5)
2 FF 1 FG 2 IND (NOEL GREALISH, CATHERINE CONNOLLY)

23. KERRY (5)
2 IND (HEALY RAES) 1 FG 2 FF

24. KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 SOC DEM 1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN

25. KILDARE SOUTH (4)
3 FF 1 FG

26. LAOIS-OFFALY (5)
2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

27. LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LABOUR

28. LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
2 FF 1 FG

29. LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 IND (MORAN) 1 FG 2 FF

30. LOUTH (5)
1 SF 1 GREEN 1 LAB 1 FF 1 FG

31. MAYO (4)
2 FG 2 FF

32. MEATH EAST (3)
1 FF 2 FG

33. MEATH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG 1

34. ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3)
2 IND (NAUGHTEN, FITZMAURICE) 1 FF

35. SLIGO-LEITRIM (4)
2 FF 1 SF 1 IND (HARKIN)

36. TIPPERARY (5)
3 IND (LOWRY, MCGRATH, HEALY), 2 FF

37. WATERFORD (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 IND (SHANAHAN)

38. WEXFORD (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 LAB

39. WICKLOW (5)
2 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

Totals:
FG 41
FF 58
GREEN 13
SF 17
LAB 8
SOC DEM 3
OTHERS 20

That would definitely see Leo gone as FG leader, and an FF-Green coalition would have a range of options in terms of other partners and pacts.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 12:31am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the 20 - 30+ theory must be the big shock.

Wouldn't surprise me with the start FG have had and a very bad lead in too, optics have been bad for a long time.

FF running on silent this last while too. Which seems to be working for them.

Momentum or lack of momentum tends to be amplified in a campaign/election.

Thus we had the PDs getting 14 seats in 1987, the Spring tide in 1992, FF nearly getting a majority in 2002, FG doing similar in 2011 and a record Labour seat haul in 2011.

We had the PDs collapsing in 1989, Labour halving in seat numbers in 1997, Fine Gael's collapse in 2002, Fianna Fail's in 2011 as well as the Greens that year, Labour's in 2016 and to a lesser extent Fine Gael also collapsing in 2016.

Sinn Fein tend to be outside these big swings, certainly in terms of positive momentum as they still struggle on transfers, they haven't had a really bad election yet since they became an electoral force in 1997/2002.

The Greens were the only party going into this election with real positive momentum and a buzz about them.

Fianna Fail are beginning to pick up momentum simply by just being around to pick up the pieces from Fine Gael and because, like the Tories, their vote is traditionally very sticky, people tend to always come back to them out of sheer habit.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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