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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • #212
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Some pollsters have got the adjusting the 'don't knows' pretty accurate at this point.


  • #213
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Water John wrote: »
    Some pollsters have got the adjusting the 'don't knows' pretty accurate at this point.
    It's not adjusting them it's how many there are in a poll. Normally nobody really cares but in an election campaign they show how engaged voters are.


  • #214
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Polls usually leak before the 9 news - bit odd it hasn't come out yet


  • #215
    PopePalpatine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,144 ✭✭✭✭PopePalpatine


    There's still 34 minutes for it to happen.


  • #216
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Sunday Times have one tomorrow but there is a strict embargo on it, no publication in advance of the paper being published itself.

    I'm predicting FG -5% FF +5%, ten point swing to FF. Terrible start to the campaign for FG.

    Greens may also be up which might take from FF's gains, but I think FG will take a large hit outside the MoE.


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  • #217
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    A poster on another thread claimed it showed FG on 20%, and FF on 30+%, but unless he works for B&A, unsure where they got that info?


  • #218
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The odd Paddy Power one I think. Heavy betting will do that as well and FF have been talked about as (slight() favourites so you would expect people to pile into that.

    Also, seems to be considered easier for FF to tack to the left for coalition partners.


  • #219
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    A poster on another thread claimed it showed FG on 20%, and FF on 30+%, but unless he works for B&A, unsure where they got that info?

    The last Sunday Times poll had the following:

    FG - 27%
    FF - 27%
    SF - 20%
    LAB - 6%
    S-PBP - 3%
    SF - 1%
    GP - 6%
    IA - 2%
    I/O - 9%

    Hard to see FG falling to 20%, a 7% drop would be a massive decline in one poll.

    Even a 5% drop would be huge even though I wouldn't be hugely surprised if that transpired. In reality FG slipping to 25%'ish and FF increasing to 30%'ish is probably more realistic.

    I think the Greens will be touching 10% before the election is out. They will pick up a lot of soft FG voters and will be transfer friendly.


  • #220
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Sun Times not releasing until midnight via their App.


  • #221
    Kh1993
    Closed Accounts Posts: 443 ✭✭Kh1993


    antimatterx wrote: »
    I think Catherine Noone will scrape the last seat it. Would be a huge victory for FG to gain two seats in DBN

    Noone has been parachuted in which can always go dreadfully wrong. Anyway, she’d probably be competing with Aodhans vote. Bruton is safe but he doesn’t have a massive amount to spare to get another FG in. I wouldn’t be a betting man as to what happens on the day but I’d imagine No one will end up around the same vote as the Green and Soc Dem. broughan might get enough from PBP and SF not running a 2nd.


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  • #222
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    One hopes Aodhan doesn't get through. My god, what a bull*hitter. He's completely forgotten he was a government minister.


  • #223
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    I think that is certain that Michael Martin will be the next Taoiseach. Farmers not happy, Teachers going on strike, gangland crime, health, housing, memories of the bailout fading. If they get momentum behind them, I can see them in the 65-70 range and going into coalition with SF or Greens depending on the numbers


  • #224
    sid waddell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    One hopes Aodhan doesn't get through. My god, what a bull*hitter. He's completely forgotten he was a government minister.
    He was a good minister who was passionate about his brief and had excellent policy ideas. I'd be delighted to see him back in his old job.


  • #225
    antimatterx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,413 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    Kh1993 wrote: »
    Noone has been parachuted in which can always go dreadfully wrong. Anyway, she’d probably be competing with Aodhans vote. Bruton is safe but he doesn’t have a massive amount to spare to get another FG in. I wouldn’t be a betting man as to what happens on the day but I’d imagine No one will end up around the same vote as the Green and Soc Dem. broughan might get enough from PBP and SF not running a 2nd.

    People keep saying this, but she lives in howth


  • #226
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    FF will be the largest party but doubt it will be above 60. If their to pick up seats, it has to be largely in Dublin. But the Greens have first bite there on floating voters.


  • #227
    golfball37
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,032 ✭✭✭golfball37


    sid waddell wrote: »
    He was a good minister who was passionate about his brief and had excellent policy ideas. I'd be delighted to see him back in his old job.

    He only lacked one key ingredient- ability


  • #228
    bren2001
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,502 ✭✭✭bren2001


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    One hopes Aodhan doesn't get through. My god, what a bull*hitter. He's completely forgotten he was a government minister.

    How exactly is he a bull*hitter?

    Always done his best for the area. Did a fine job as Minister. Passionate about his job, and a couple of topics. He's the exact person I want representing me.


  • #229
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Sun Times not releasing until midnight via their App.

    Which nearly nobody has. Wahey.


  • #230
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    There must be some sort of big movement in the ST poll.

    https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/1218664815494864896


  • #231
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    There must be some sort of big movement in the ST poll.

    https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/1218664815494864896

    It has to be above MoE in both directions surely in that case.


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  • #232
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    sid waddell wrote: »
    He was a good minister who was passionate about his brief and had excellent policy ideas. I'd be delighted to see him back in his old job.

    All I know is that he promised to end Direct Provision and he didn't. He speaks about Direct Provision now as if he forgets he was in charge of it.

    He also supported Joan Burton's decision to cut lone parents allowance. Many of the people involved in the drug feuds come from single parent households.

    The cuts to this allowance and cuts to drug programmes which his government implemented are a major factor in the ongoing drug wars. Not to mention the economic deprivation in many parts of his own constituency.


  • #233
    Kh1993
    Closed Accounts Posts: 443 ✭✭Kh1993


    Aodhan has played to his potential vote. Opposing the St Anne’s development and Bus Connects will have picked him up enough votes, rightly or wrongly. I’d go as far as calling him a cert in the absence of McGrath.


  • #234
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Kh1993 wrote: »
    Aodhan has played to his potential vote. Opposing the St Anne’s development and Bus Connects will have picked him up enough votes, rightly or wrongly. I’d go as far as calling him a cert in the absence of McGrath.

    For a Labour TD to oppose the Bus Connects and the improvement of public transport is another reason this guy needs the heave ho.

    He's standing up for those with large gardens - this is not supposed to be Labour territory.


  • #235
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,928 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    Am i misissing something? Is this thread it on boards for the GE? :confused:


  • #236
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    L1011 wrote: »
    Which nearly nobody has. Wahey.

    Gavan Reilly and every other pol corr will tweet the results almost instantly.


  • #237
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    There must be some sort of big movement in the ST poll.

    https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/1218664815494864896

    Interesting!

    Could there be a Sinn Fein bounce?


  • #238
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    L1011 wrote: »
    It has to be above MoE in both directions surely in that case.

    I think the 20 - 30+ theory must be the big shock.

    Wouldn't surprise me with the start FG have had and a very bad lead in too, optics have been bad for a long time.

    FF running on silent this last while too. Which seems to be working for them.


  • #239
    robman60
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,229 ✭✭✭robman60


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Interesting!

    Could there be a Sinn Fein bounce?

    If anyone is to bounce, I'd be thinking greens and not SF.


  • #240
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Whoever is benefiting might decide to run extra candidates.


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  • #241
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,117 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    https://twitter.com/MHealyRae/status/1218667407285407749

    This is the level folks


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