Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Dont be at yourself · 15-10-2019 8:17pm

Could Johnson get a deal passed the HoC, thus negating the Benn act, on the assurance that Arlene and the DUP will torpedo it in Stormont, bringing about a no-deal Brexit as desired?

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 8:18pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I just do not trust BJ. Never have never will. There’s some strategy going on behind this whole negotiation.

I don't know if there is a plan, all I know is if somehow Johnson comes out of this reasonably well it will be by luck more than planning and that Cummings will be hailed a genius. Seems that the plan could be to send the two letters, even if this has been disputed many times already.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184112360426037248?s=20

I guess they are saying this to get MPs to vote for the deal, if not he has to resign or ask for an extension, which he said he would not do. He is still trapped, trying to use the May deal to get out of breaking another promise that got him elected and that will get him his majority to take 5 years off after the 31st October in a new GE. I struggle to think why they think they could send 2 letters and not get dragged back to court.

As the same time, why would Labour vote for his deal when there will be an extension and time to sort this out instead of the 31st October deadline?

J Mysterio wrote: »

Shockwaves from this

https://twitter.com/NewtonEmerson/status/1184183886722584582

Its staggering that it has come to this. A worse deal for the UK than May is being seen as the best deal. Let's take a moment to think about what type of person thinks that the previous deal wasn't good enough but a worse deal is the one to go for when you have been saying there is better out there.

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 8:21pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Could Johnson get a deal passed the HoC, thus negating the Benn act, on the assurance that Arlene and the DUP will torpedo it in Stormont, bringing about a no-deal Brexit as desired?

It would need to take some convincing for MPs that voted against May's deal to vote for his deal if it is a worse deal. I can see it happening but like all the previous deals once the wording is out there and has been looked at and scrutinized you can bet that if the deal is worse it will be amplified.

As for the opposition, there will be an extension so they don't need to vote for it as the threat of no-deal is off the table for now. The only way no-deal is back is if they vote for the deal and time runs out before legislation is passed and they leave without a deal automatically.

So ironically if they vote for the deal they could be voting for no-deal. That may be why the ERG is happy to go with this deal.

Water John · 15-10-2019 8:22pm

Just tells how pathetic those Brexiteers actually are. They are now sweating from fear they get to stay in the EU.
Johnson has possibly struck lucky because the constant losing votes in the HOC showed them how vulnerable their position was.

hometruths · 15-10-2019 8:47pm

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if there is a plan, all I know is if somehow Johnson comes out of this reasonably well it will be by luck more than planning and that Cummings will be hailed a genius. Seems that the plan could be to send the two letters, even if this has been disputed many times already.

I think this was the plan all along, run the clock down to the last minute, see what if anything he could extract from the EU, knowing he could agree the border in the Irish sea at the 11th hour, force the HoC to pass it knowing it is this deal or No Deal.

It has been a bit scuppered though by the Benn Act, which is why I think he will be trying to get EU to say "The only reason we will grant an extension is if you pass this deal pre 31st"

SeaBreezes · 15-10-2019 8:49pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

Foster seems to be really rattled here...

Has also completed changed tack? Now she is saying there needs to be consent of a majority of both Nationalists and Unionists?

She thought she had 'won' a Unionist veto just last week.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1184170998771388416

Ha ha both Tories and the DUP are running scared of any referendum. They know full well the majority of people would vote revoke at this stage. Now they've been properly informed...

God forbid the actual people get a say on how they want to proceed now...

am i bovvered · 15-10-2019 8:50pm

This thread has been a fantastic source of balanced information, a credit to the posters and shows just how good ‘boards.ie’ can be.
However a 25 minute gap between posts is totally unacceptable !!!
Please note ... I require constant updates at this critical time.
x

Spanish Eyes · 15-10-2019 8:50pm

Whenever I try to see both sides of the issue, all I can see is Mark Francois.

And there are many others too. Honestly what the F are they smoking? There must be something in it for them. What is it?

blackcard · 15-10-2019 8:55pm

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-10-2019 9:00pm

FT reporting another bribe on offer for the DUP

FT: UK and EU locked in race to broker Brexit deal “PM spent the eleventh hour haggling with Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP, over a big cash payment for the region to help secure her support for the deal taking shape in Brussels”

CelticRambler · 15-10-2019 9:03pm

blackcard wrote: »

... so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

Anyone who voted for Brexit has to live with the consequences of that vote. All the problematic facts were there to be seen by anyone who wasn't blinded by their own ideology. It's too late to have reservations after you've gambled everything on something that could never work.

15-10-2019 9:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT reporting another bribe on offer for the DUP

Between Cash for Ash, TM's billion and now this, the DUP will be well stocked with funds. No doubt they will use them for the benefit and prosperity of all of NI and its people.

cameramonkey · 15-10-2019 9:04pm

blackcard wrote: »

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

Thats exactly what they did in 1922, it was always going to be problematic splitting ireland in two , this is just geo political karma for the UK.

davedanon · 15-10-2019 9:04pm

These are contiguous geographical areas. NI, leaving aside anything else, is physically part of our island, but politically connected to another. No comparison in my book. And the DUP isn't all of NI. People seem to forget this. They don't speak for anyone but themselves.

hometruths · 15-10-2019 9:04pm

blackcard wrote: »

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

I get what you're saying. But to extend the analogy imagine all Ireland was part of a very successful trading bloc and single market, and narrowly voted to leave it, the votes being made up of a majority leave in Ireland A, though a majority remain in Ireland B.

In that scenario if I was a resident in Ireland B and somebody offered the solution to trade freely with Ireland A and benefit from the easiest trade deals in history they were going to make and retain free market access to the trading bloc I would bite their hand off.

I might even think I had the best of both worlds. I certainly don't think I'd feel any less Irish. In fact I'd feel a bit sorry for Ireland A.

Well most of them. Probably not Cork though. I would suspect they skewed the leave vote.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 9:05pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Between Cash for Ash, TM's billion and now this, the DUP will be well stocked with funds. No doubt they will use them for the benefit and prosperity of all of NI and its people.

The 'billion' wasn't for them.
Has it even been handed over yet?

davedanon · 15-10-2019 9:05pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Anyone who voted for Brexit has to live with the consequences of that vote. All the problematic facts were there to be seen by anyone who wasn't blinded by their own ideology. It's too late to have reservations after you've gambled everything on something that could never work.

NI didn't vote for Brexit.

Professor Moriarty · 15-10-2019 9:06pm

davedanon wrote: »

These are contiguous geographical areas. NI, leaving aside anything else, is physically part of our island, but politically connected to another. No comparison in my book. And the DUP isn't all of NI. People seem to forget this. They don't speak for anyone but themselves.

They speak for 30% of NI's population.

blackcard · 15-10-2019 9:09pm

schmittel wrote: »

I get what you're saying. But to extend the analogy imagine all Ireland was part of a very successful trading bloc and single market, and narrowly voted to leave it, the votes being made up of a majority leave in Ireland A, though a majority remain in Ireland B.

In that scenario if I was a resident in Ireland B and somebody offered the solution to trade freely with Ireland A and benefit from the easiest trade deals in history they were going to make and retain free market access to the trading bloc I would bite their hand off.

I might even think I had the best of both worlds. I certainly don't think I'd feel any less Irish. In fact I'd feel a bit sorry for Ireland A.

Well most of them. Probably not Cork though. I would suspect they skewed the leave vote.

Cork, the Rebel County. Because they wanted a different King of England to rule Ireland

15-10-2019 9:10pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'billion' wasn't for them.
Has it even been handed over yet?

Not sure, but this is from the Telegraph June 2017...

A £1 billion deal has been done between the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party to prop up Theresa May's minority Government.

Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, and Mrs May agreed the deal which will see the extra funding provided to Northern Ireland over the next two years during talks at Downing Street on Monday morning.

It actually was for all of NI, my apologies.

Water John · 15-10-2019 9:14pm

Yes, that tallies with 50% paid.
Johnson either gets this through HOC or takes it into an election.
Corbyn will say if that's the Deal or his new Deal (soft Brexit) will be put in a Ref along with Withdraw Art 50.
Swinson says forget deals and withdraw Art 50.
That's the GE line up.

Sam Russell · 15-10-2019 9:17pm

blackcard wrote: »

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

I think that misrepresents what is being suggested.

For trade between N and S in say milk, there needs to be compliance as to standards and customs. (SM and CU) otherwise the milk lorry does not collect any milk north of the border, so milk goes down the drain. With SM compliance, the lorry collects the milk, but a tariff of 24p a litre, so milk goes down the drain. So to save the agri business, the CU and SM is needed.

For trade ex NI to GB, the UK could allow goods in tariff free. So cheddar cheese could be packaged in NI and shipped tariff free to GB, with perhaps the same for beef.

Now, any goods coming from GB to NI would undergo customs and SM checks, but most such goods currently pass through Dublin Port.

Now which is more damaging to NI? I think the agri business cannot survive without the Irish Sea border but everything else can.

SeaBreezes · 15-10-2019 9:33pm

schmittel wrote: »

Well most of them. Probably not Cork though. I would suspect they skewed the leave vote.

The people's republic of cork. Just sayin'. We are watching closely and taking notes on 'reclaiming sovereignty' :-) :-) :-)

boggerman1 · 15-10-2019 9:35pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Whenever I try to see both sides of the issue, all I can see is Mark Francois.

And there are many others too. Honestly what the F are they smoking? There must be something in it for them. What is it?

Money.lots of money

gooch2k9 · 15-10-2019 9:43pm

Everyone is wise to what Arlene Foster is asking for when she says Stormont must have a say yet she continues to push this idea. There is no sense to try and compromise to reach an agreement, it's all or nothing and I'll be glad to see them get their just rewards for taking that stance.

Leroy42 · 15-10-2019 9:49pm

I just saw the clip of Mark Francois leaving the meeting with the PM.

He did not look very happy. He tried to avoid giving any comment, but such is his inability, he said that talks will continue.

The journalist jumped on it straight away to say that obviously he didn't like what he had heard!

If the whole business wasn't so serious it would be really funny

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 10:00pm

Three tweet summing up the situation as it seems right now,

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1184131333104263170?s=20

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1184154110054096897?s=20

So these two tweets just comment on the leaks that the deal seems to be a NI only backstop and that this was offered as a solution in February 2018 by the EU and it actually the EU opening offer to the UK. This is some Donald Trump level of negotiations going on from the UK, rejecting their hard won compromises to go for the EU opening offer.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1184194022132404225?s=20

And if you think that Johnson could not be so naive to take a deal this bad, well this tweet just reminds us that Johnson negotiated the Olympic Stadium deal to West Ham, where the government decided not to make the design easy to convert for a football stadium after use at the olympics in 2012, then paid to convert it to a football stadium, extra cost because they didn't design it this way from the start, and is charging only £2.5m per year in rent for a stadium that cost almost £750m to build and then convert.

Joe_ Public · 15-10-2019 10:01pm

Ludicrous beyond the extreme. All the nonsense over the past 3 years just to go back to a position they outrightly rejected over 2 years ago. I can't be convinced they're serious about it.

quokula · 15-10-2019 10:13pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Ludicrous beyond the extreme. All the nonsense over the past 3 years just to go back to a position they outrightly rejected over 2 years ago. I can't be convinced they're serious about it.

That doesn’t matter though, as long as the Sun and the Express can convince their readers this is a triumphant new deal. This has only ever been about winning votes for the Tory party, never about the details of what the deal actually achieves.

Shelga · 15-10-2019 10:24pm

Why did the DUP reject the UK-wide backstop proposal? Either they trust their Tory masters or they don’t.

If they’re saying they didn’t trust them to keep the backstop UK-wide, doesn’t that undermine their whole ideology?

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:29pm

Heads up Newsnight starting shortly

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 10:34pm

Text currently being prepared according to Pat Leahy.

https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1184220349594062855

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 10:38pm

On Newsnight it was said that Owen Paterson is strongly against a customs border in the sea, so it seems not all the ERG will be at odds with the DUP. Question is whether or not he's a marginal voice within the group on this.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 10:41pm

So presuming a deal is done...does anyone know when it gets to the HoC for a vote etc?

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:41pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

On Newsnight it was said that Owen Paterson is strongly against a customs border in the sea, so it seems not all the ERG will be at odds with the DUP. Question is whether or not he's a marginal voice within the group on this.

There’s nutters in the ERG who would be against any Deal. Some of them would just enjoy the world burning

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:42pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So presuming a deal is done...does anyone know when it gets to the HoC for a vote etc?

This Saturday coming

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 10:42pm

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 10:43pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 10:48pm

Headshot wrote: »

This Saturday coming

Big day. All blacks and Brexit or ABexit and Brexit

LeinsterDub · 15-10-2019 10:48pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

How many Labour rebels do you think there are? Each ERG rebel cancels out a Labour rebel, plus the DUP votes have to be covered. I honestly can't see 40 or 50 Labour rebels

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 10:48pm

It's looking very tight on the arithmetic. If the DUP come out with a strong condemnation, coupled with the Brexit Party doing similar, I could see ERG members that are on the fence being spooked and moving towards rejection.

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:49pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Big day. All blacks and Brexit or ABexit and Brexit

I'm going to be in do not disturb mode and stuck to the TV

With the popcorn ready to go

LeinsterDub · 15-10-2019 10:50pm

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184220192349532161

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184217477196242944

This is one way to beat the Brexit party. Become the Brexit party!

Leroy42 · 15-10-2019 10:56pm

But its really this deal or massive extension and possible revoke.

No deal is not an option. So the likes of IDS etc have a big decision to make.

And of course, whilst they may feel the deal is not ideal, it comes down to beating back the BP at the next election.

And they will convince themselves and everyone else, that it's only temporary until they get the FTA and with it freedom

lawred2 · 15-10-2019 10:56pm

How many more Tories can the Tory party boot out before they have less parliamentary members than that labour party?

threeball · 15-10-2019 10:57pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

If they eject these guys from the party won't they just run for the brexit party. The Tories are coming apart at the seams. Massive split on the cards in the near future.

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 10:57pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

There were 5 Labour rebels last time. This deal will not be better for Labour to accept it, so how many more can they expect? I doubt they will get more than the 5 that voted for the previous deal, with it being at best the same deal or even worse than the deal they rejected last time. An extension isn't ruling out Brexit.

Itssoeasy · 15-10-2019 11:02pm

lawred2 wrote: »

How many more Tories can the Tory party boot out before they have less parliamentary members than that labour party?

Assuming the rebels from the last time are still on the outs then 44.

Leroy42 · 15-10-2019 11:04pm

threeball wrote: »

If they eject these guys from the party won't they just run for the brexit party. The Tories are coming apart at the seams. Massive split on the cards in the near future.

No, this can't be right. They voted Johnson in to save the party. The only problem was that Major/Cameron/TM were all remainers and once they got a true believer in everything would be grand.

Itssoeasy · 15-10-2019 11:05pm

So could this be as close as that vote of confidence in 1979 when the British government fell by one vote and Maggie thatcher became prime minister in the election that followed ? That's the impression I'm getting from reading posts here ? The sums looks very tight.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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